August 13, 2026 The Chinese gold market showed a clear dichotomy in the first half of 2026: whilst demand for jewellery slumped amid record prices, physical investment products recorded strong growth. According to data from the China Gold Association (CGA), China’s total consumption rose slightly by 1.23 per cent to 511.41 tonnes (previous year: 505.21 tonnes). Investment demand offsets slump in jewellery High gold retail prices and changes to tax rules had a noticeable dampening effect on consumers. Nevertheless, there was a significant shift towards physical assets as a store of value: • Jewellery: −33.88 per cent to 132.13 tonnes • Bullion & coins: +28.42% to 339.34 tonnes • Industry & other: −2.90% to 39.94 tonnes Retail investors made targeted use of price corrections to make additional purchases via domestic banks. As a result, the investment sector more than fully offset the slump in the jewellery sector. Domestic production slumps – strategic focus on physical metal In parallel with the shift in demand, domestic supply contracted: China’s mining output from its own raw materials fell by 14.62 per cent to 152.91 tonnes. The main cause was regulatory environmental requirements and safety inspections, which led to temporary shutdowns. By contrast, the processing of imported ores rose by 4.62 per cent to 77.08 tonnes. Overall, domestic production thus fell by 9.01 per cent to 229.99 tonnes. For commodity investors, market expert Willem Middelkoop ( Commodity Discovery Fund ) places these developments within a broader macroeconomic context. He sees a familiar pattern in China’s approach: the state is systematically using price dips to make strategic purchases – much as it has done with oil and copper. Middelkoop does not interpret the recent consistent restriction by major Chinese banks on retail investors’ access to leveraged paper and futures trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) as a market crisis. Rather, he sees it as a state-directed measure to defuse speculative overheating and a targeted redirection of private capital away from paper-based derivatives towards physically backed holdings. By curbing leveraged trades, financial institutions are reducing systemic risks in the domestic market and forcing capital to be tied up directly in physical assets. China thus remains the key driver of the global market: whilst high prices are dampening cyclical jewellery consumption, they are accelerating the strategic, long-term accumulation of physical metal. Against the backdrop of declining domestic production, this development is simultaneously exacerbating China’s structural dependence on imports of raw gold and ores – a trend that is likely to increasingly constrain physical liquidity on Western trading markets. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/china-s-appetite-for-gold-is-growing-investors-are-increasingly-turning-to-gold-bars-and-coins

Published: Aug 11, 2026 - 11:44 PM (Kitco News) – China’s total gold consumption rose 1.23% in the first half of 2026, according to the latest data from the China Gold Association (CGA). Gold consumption in China came in at 511.41 tonnes in the first six months of the year, the CGA said, compared to 505.21 tonnes in H1 2025, with strong investment demand offsetting the still-sluggish jewelry sector. The association noted that the country's gold consumption patterns were in flux, as the combination of sharp price fluctuations above historically high levels and newly-implemented domestic gold tax policies impacted consumer purchasing habits. The impacts were most pronounced in jewelry and in investment, though for opposite reasons. Demand for gold jewelry plummeted 33.88% year-over-year to 132.13 tonnes, with consumers hesitant to make purchases amid soaring retail prices. On the other hand, burgeoning investment demand saw the consumption of gold bars and coins to 339.34 tonnes, an increase of 28.42%. The CGA said the periodic price pullbacks have served to repeatedly stimulate purchases of gold bars through domestic banking channels, even as persistently high gold prices have pushed up production costs for industrial enterprises, contributing to a 2.9% decline in industrial and other gold uses, which totaled 39.94% tonnes for the first six months of 2026. On the supply side, China's gold output from domestic raw materials dropped 14.62% year-over-year to 152.91 tonnes. The CGA attributed the decline to comprehensive safety inspections, rectifications and special environmental governance campaigns in key gold-producing provinces, which led to temporary production halts at some major gold mines. Gold produced from imported raw materials, however, rose 4.62% or 3.40 tonnes to 77.08 tonnes in H1. China produced a combined 229.99 tonnes of gold from both domestic and imported raw materials, a 9.01% decrease compared to the same period in 2025. In a recent interview with Kitco News, Willem Middelkoop, founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund and author of ‘The Big Reset’, said the government of China actually favors a lower gold price right now because it is still buying, and that the monetary "reset" he has forecast for over a decade is no longer a prediction but a process already underway. "A monetary reset is a more gradual process. It's not a binary event," Middelkoop said. "We're in the first innings." "China is a very active buyer of dips," Middelkoop said, adding that the same pattern holds in copper and oil. Asked about Chinese banks pulling retail access to the Shanghai Gold Exchange, Middelkoop said he read the move as China steering savers away from paper trading and toward physical metal, not as a crackdown. He said China has long run a dual strategy, citing a program he called "Storing Gold with the People" that he said appears in a Chinese publication from 2011 or 2012. "China understands it's all about owning the physical stuff in the end," he said. Major Chinese lenders including ICBC halted retail Shanghai Gold Exchange trading after the July 24 settlement, covering both spot and deferred contracts, according to bank notices and Chinese financial press. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-11/chinas-gold-consumption-rises-123-h1-jewelry-sales-slump-while-investment

In H1 2026, domestic raw gold production was 152.908 mt, down 26.175 mt YoY, a decline of 14.62%; imported raw gold production was 77.080 mt, up 3.402 mt YoY, an increase of 4.62%. Total gold production from domestic and imported raw materials was 229.988 mt, down 22.773 mt YoY, a decline of 9.01%. Meanwhile, China's gold consumption totaled 511.412 mt, up 1.23% YoY. This comprised gold jewelry (132.133 mt, down 33.88% YoY), gold bars and coins (339.336 mt, up 28.42% YoY), and industrial and other uses (39.943 mt, down 2.90% YoY).

SMM, August 5: Expectations for Middle East geopolitics are shifting toward easing, oil prices have pulled back sharply for two consecutive trading days, and market concerns about inflation have cooled. Expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September have pulled back, with multiple positive factors resonating to drive precious metals futures and stocks to strengthen together. In the futures market: As of around 17:12 on August 5, COMEX gold was up 1.7% at $4,223.1/oz; SHFE gold main contract was up 3.1% at 910.4 yuan/g; COMEX silver was up 2.53% at $61.77/oz; SHFE silver main contract was up 7.08% at 15,105 yuan/kg; silver T+D was up 5.8% at 14,988 yuan/kg. Platinum main contract futures were up 9.18% at 441.15 yuan/g; palladium main contract futures were up 8.51% at 329.65 yuan/g. In the stock market: As of market close on August 5, the precious metals sector was up 7.87%. In individual stocks: Sengda Resources and Sichuan Gold hit the daily limit up, while Xiaocheng Technology, Chifeng Gold, Zhongjin Gold, Xingye Silver&Tin, and Shanjin International were among the top gainers. News [South Korea's Central Bank Plans to Purchase Domestically Refined Gold Bars for the First Time in 13 Years] According to South Korean media reports, the Bank of Korea said on Monday that it will cooperate with LS MnM, the Korea Exchange (KRX), and the Korea Securities Depository (KSD) to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years through over-the-counter transactions, as heightened geopolitical risks have increased the need to diversify foreign exchange reserves. LS MnM and Korea Zinc produce about 40 to 45 mt of gold annually as a by-product of smelting, of which about 10% is exported. The central bank stated that if relevant enterprises apply, it will consider using the trading and settlement system of the KRX and the storage facilities being prepared by the KSD to purchase some of the gold intended for export. The central bank said it will arrange bulk transactions after prior consultations on price and quantity to limit the impact on domestic gold prices, and that the new channel should reduce foreign exchange risks, since previous overseas purchases were all paid in US dollars. Additionally, the central bank also stated that it purchased a small amount of gold ETFs in Q2. Separately, it was reported that as of July, its gold holdings remained unchanged at 104.4 mt, while South Korea's foreign exchange reserves at the end of June stood at $427.36 billion, including gold reserves worth $4.79 billion. [World Gold Council: Gold Investment Demand Expected to Remain Positive] The World Gold Council report noted that in the remainder of 2026, investment demand is expected to be the main driver of gold demand growth, and will be increasingly supported by over-the-counter trading activities and Asian investment demand. Central banks will remain key gold buyers. High gold prices will continue to suppress gold jewelry demand, but the response of gold ore production and recycled gold supply is expected to be relatively mild. Gold investment demand is expected to remain positive for the rest of 2026. OTC activity and Asian investment demand are expected to play a larger role, while Western gold ETF flows may continue to be sensitive to US Treasury real yields, Fed monetary policy expectations, and the US dollar. Although consumer spending has remained relatively resilient, high gold prices will continue to suppress gold jewelry demand; technology-related gold demand is expected to further benefit from AI investment, but downside risks are accumulating. (Jinshi Data) [Zijin Mining: Terminates Acquisition of United Gold, Plans to Subscribe for 9.2% Equity] Zijin Mining announced on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange that on January 26, 2026, its controlled subsidiary Zijin Gold International signed an Arrangement Agreement with United Gold, under which Zijin Gold International would acquire all outstanding common shares of United Gold for a cash price of C$44 per share, with a total consideration of approximately C$5.5 billion (approximately $4 billion). However, after comprehensive evaluation, both parties believed that certain closing conditions precedent could not be fully satisfied or waived by the deadline stipulated in the acquisition agreement (which had been extended to July 29, 2026) or within a reasonable period thereafter. The parties agreed to terminate the acquisition, and neither party is required to pay a termination fee or any other fees to the other. Meanwhile, the parties separately entered into a Share Subscription Agreement, under which Zijin Gold International intends to subscribe for 12.8 million common shares (representing approximately 9.2% of the enlarged share capital post-issuance) placed by United Gold at a cash price of C$32.55 per share, with a total subscription amount of C$416.6 million, equivalent to approximately $295 million. [Chifeng Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 54%-61% YoY] Chifeng Gold disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 1.7 billion yuan to 1.78 billion yuan, up 54%-61% YoY. [Zhaojin Gold: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 347.48%-436.98% YoY] Zhaojin Gold disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 200 million yuan to 240 million yuan, up 347.48%-436.98% YoY; recurring net profit is expected to be 80 million yuan to 116 million yuan, up 490.44%-756.14% YoY. [Shandong Humon Smelting: Expects H1 2026 Net Profit to Increase by 81.06%-122.36% YoY] Shandong Humon Smelting disclosed an earnings forecast on the evening of July 14, expecting its H1 2026 net profit attributable to shareholders to be 570 million yuan to 700 million yuan, up 81.06%-122.36% YoY; recurring net profit is expected to be 272 million yuan to 402 million yuan, down 2.03%-33.73% YoY. [Western Gold: H1 2026 Net Profit Expected to Rise 280.16%-333.39% YoY] Western Gold disclosed on the evening of July 13 that it expects its H1 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company to be 500 million to 570 million yuan, up 280.16%-333.39% YoY; and adjusted net profit to be 490 million to 580 million yuan, up 172.96%-223.09% YoY. [Zhongjin Gold: H1 2026 Net Profit Expected at 4.1-4.6 Billion Yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY] Zhongjin Gold disclosed on the evening of July 13 that it expects its H1 2026 net profit attributable to the parent company to be 4.1 billion to 4.6 billion yuan, up 52.15%-70.7% YoY; and adjusted net profit to be 4.05 billion to 4.55 billion yuan, up 36.96%-53.87% YoY. Spot Market Silver On August 5, the morning ex-factory reference average price of SMM #1 silver was 14,556 yuan/kg, up 2.38% from the previous trading day. In the spot market, downstream demand remained sluggish this month, with limited new orders overall. The strengthening silver price further weakened downstream purchase willingness; market transactions mainly relied on support from banking institutions, with deals concentrated around parity, and traders were reluctant to quote. Morning quotations in Shanghai were mostly at parity to a premium of up to 10 yuan/kg against TD; in Shenzhen, some national standard goods were quoted around parity. Although low-priced goods existed, they did not significantly disturb spot trade. Today, the market quoted a discount of 60 to 50 yuan/kg against the most-traded SHFE contract 2610. Overall, expectations for a Strait of Hormuz agreement heated up, inflation concerns eased briefly, and precious metals recovered slightly. In the spot market, the rise in silver prices further suppressed demand, with orders remaining sluggish and trading staying thin. Voices Regarding the future trend of precious metals, some institutions' views are as follows: CITIC Securities research report stated that this year gold prices shot up and then fell rapidly, but we believe gold is still in a major bull market, with reasons including the accelerating expansion of the US fiscal deficit, irreconcilable geopolitical rifts under deglobalization, and continued gold purchases by global central banks providing a floor. Therefore, we think this round of decline in gold prices is merely a temporary correction within the bull market. The current pullback has approached historical extremes, and the $4,000/oz area is highly likely to be the bottom zone for this round. Looking ahead, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz situation on gold prices is expected to shift from a drag to a boost, the Fed's monetary policy may be more optimistic than market expectations, and coupled with surging US military spending driving up the deficit, gold prices are expected to return to an uptrend within the year. Deutsche Bank precious metals strategist Hsueh Michael stated that the "explosive rally phase" for gold prices that began in August 2024 is not yet over, and maintains the forecast of gold at $4,600/oz in Q4 2026. This assessment rests on a triple framework of fair value models, statistical tests, and official demand data, discounting the significant downside risk implied by commodity price ratios. (Zhitong Finance) A research report from CICC Wealth Futures shows: oil prices pulled back, gold rebounded, and currently, the yen's disruption causing moves in the US dollar index is a new disturbance factor, which is expected to have a relatively limited impact on gold price trends. The biggest pressure on gold currently still comes from oil prices. CICC Wealth Futures believes that if oil prices are not excessively strong, the probability of gold maintaining a fluctuating trend or drifting higher is relatively high. Everbright Futures' outlook for August suggests that the short-term gold price trend depends on the evolving US-Iran situation. If the conflict persists or its spillover expands, market sentiment may weaken again, and under liquidity risk expectations, gold prices may continue to underperform. However, if a substantive breakthrough in negotiations occurs, gold prices could stabilize in the short term and undergo a recovery and rebound. At that point, if domestic and overseas financial markets show a synchronized recovery, it can be further confirmed. Nevertheless, it can be expected that with support from rigid central bank purchases and allocation demand, even if a pullback occurs again, the downside should be relatively limited. Additionally, at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium at the end of August, Warsh may outline a medium-term policy framework. Before that, the US CPI data on the 12th will be a key verification indicator. Overall, gold is likely in a stage of bottom consolidation and sentiment repair, and we hold a cautiously optimistic view. The core risk is that the US-Iran conflict once again pushes oil prices above $90/oz, a significant rebound in US inflation data far exceeding expectations, and the evolving probability of a September rate hike continuing to suppress market sentiment. However, judging from the performance of overseas financial markets and oil prices, a full-scale escalation of the US-Iran conflict is largely unsupported. A Reuters survey showed that after gold prices pulled back significantly from their record highs in January, analysts cut their gold price forecasts for the first time since the end of 2023, though most still expect support from central bank buying and concerns over fiscal sustainability. In the survey of 29 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks, the median forecast for gold prices in 2026 was $4,509/oz. That figure is down from $4,916 three months ago and marks the first downgrade in 11 quarters. The average forecast for 2027 is $4,610, compared to a forecast of $5,100 in the previous poll. Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595/oz in January, but suffered a sharp pullback in Q2 as the Iran war exacerbated energy inflation and boosted rate hike expectations, marking the worst quarterly performance since 2013. Since the outbreak of the war, spot gold has fallen about 22%. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey from ING noted that gold prices rose on Monday, as a sharp decline in oil prices eased inflation concerns and pressured the US dollar and US bond yields. The large drop in oil prices on Monday alleviated inflation worries and the prospect of further monetary tightening. The move came after a pause in US-Iran hostilities. Lower oil prices also weighed on the US dollar and bond yields, improving the outlook for non-yielding assets ahead of this week’s Fed meeting. Markets are now focused on the Fed and the upcoming US inflation data for further guidance on the interest rate outlook. If yields remain subdued, gold prices should continue to be supported near current levels. However, any hawkish surprise from the Fed could limit further upside room in the near term. Commerzbank has lowered its year-end gold price forecast to $4,500 per troy ounce, and now expects platinum to reach $2,000 per troy ounce by year-end, down from a previous forecast of $2,100. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain subdued in the third quarter, despite historically being a seasonal peak for stockpiling. The reasons include ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment and local price discounts curbing demand for fresh imports. However, Citi maintains its short-term gold price target of $4,500 for 0–3 months. This target, the bank said, assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the Fed; in the short term there remain many risks that could push gold prices lower again, including a major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish stance by the Fed. UBS gold strategist Joni Teves remains optimistic on the medium to long-term outlook for gold. She noted in her comments that gold prices have been rising since the start of this week, with gold stocks in mainland China and Hong Kong surging around 20% over three days – a positive signal. “We believe confidence in gold is starting to improve and continue to expect that prices will rebound from current levels by year-end,” she said. UBS’s global team remains upbeat on gold’s medium-term outlook and forecasts prices will reach $4,675 per ounce by end-2026 and $4,800 per ounce by end-2027. She indicated that the key events to watch going forward are the Fed’s policy tone at the FOMC meeting at the end of July and further developments in the Middle East. (Jinshi Data APP) Analysts at ANZ Research said in a report that physical demand for the metal and central bank purchases are supporting the gold market. These analysts added that while gold prices face short-term headwinds from the US Fed's tightening expectations and a strong US dollar, after months of outflows from exchange-traded funds, gold investment positions look thin, suggesting limited room for further declines. A high-interest-rate environment typically weighs on non-yielding assets like gold. (Zhitong Finance) Goldman Sachs stated that despite pressure from the US Fed's tightening expectations, central bank purchases are expected to provide a floor for gold. Demand remains robust, with the bank estimating that central banks bought 81 mt of gold in May and the three-month average of monthly purchases at 67 mt, far above the pre-2022 average of 17 mt. Goldman Sachs analysts said, "We believe the trend of central banks increasing their gold holdings will continue for many years as they diversify reserves to hedge geopolitical and financial risks." The bank forecasts average monthly purchases will be 50 mt this year and 40 mt next year. (Jin10 Data) Kim Soojin, analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said, "Recent price action suggests that the market is placing more weight on the likelihood that US interest rates will stay high for longer rather than on gold's traditional safe-haven demand. This leaves gold vulnerable to pressure unless geopolitical risks further translate into a broad deterioration in financial market sentiment." (Jin10 Data) Fidelity International, an asset manager, said it plans to add to its gold positions again at an appropriate time after reducing them earlier this year, believing gold's long-term momentum remains strong. Ian Samson, multi-asset portfolio manager at Fidelity International, said recently, "We plan to add to our gold positions again; the question is just the timing." He said he reduced his gold allocation to a neutral level from January to February this year, when gold's multi-year bull market abruptly ended. Samson expects the gold market to re-enter a bull market sometime in 2027. The logic for a return to a bull market would only be undermined if "governments re-embrace fiscal discipline and central banks are truly committed to bringing inflation back down," "but I don't think we're in that world right now." Samson also noted that continued central bank gold purchases, a key driver of the previous bull market, will continue to support gold prices. A research report from Guoxin Securities shows that after a deep correction in H1, gold prices near $4,000 are gradually showing signs of bottoming out, with further upside only awaiting event catalysts. It recommends building positions in batches near $4,000 on dips and avoiding chasing rallies. Key allocation logic: First, valuations are at historically low levels, providing a notable margin of safety. After a deep pullback in H1, current valuations of gold mining companies have retreated sharply from the beginning of the year to low levels, offering high odds. Going forward, aside from a valuation repair rally, they are expected to further benefit from the price elasticity driven by rising gold prices. Second, earnings elasticity advantage is significant. Gold stocks act as an "amplifier" for gold prices—the cost of gold mining is rigid, so rising gold prices directly translate into profit growth, making earnings elasticity far exceed the gold price increase itself. A research report from Huayuan Securities points out: from a medium-term perspective, the market’s core trading logic has anchored on the pricing chain of "inflation stickiness and resilience exceeding expectations → extended period of high rates by the US Fed → repeated intensification of rate hike expectations within the year," and gold's price center remains dominated by US real bond yields and the US dollar index, with the overall market likely to consolidate on a subdued note. Ceasefire consultations in the Middle East are currently mired in back-and-forth maneuvering, with the two sides significantly diverging on core demands such as troop withdrawal arrangements, nuclear facility inspection mechanisms, and control rights and toll rules for navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. The recurring geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt global crude oil supply expectations, and the upside risk of energy prices may further entrench inflation stickiness, in turn supporting the US Fed's tightening policy stance. Meanwhile, the simultaneous rise in the US dollar index and US bond yields is creating a dual suppression effect; coupled with gold's safe-haven attributes temporarily yielding to interest rate pricing logic, the upside room for gold prices may continue to be constrained. Key events to watch over the next two weeks include: 1) developments in the Middle East conflict and navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz; 2) the US Fed’s interest rate decision to be announced on July 30; 3) the US June PCE to be released on July 30. In the long term, gold’s bullish logic has not weakened but has been further strengthened amid changes in the global macro and geopolitical landscape. 1) The constraints of US fiscal deficits, debt expansion, rising trade protectionism, and intensifying major-country competition are weakening the stability of the US dollar credit anchor, driving a reallocation of global reserve assets toward diversification. Gold is gradually evolving into an important asset for hedging sovereign credit risks, geopolitical fragmentation risks, and risks of restructuring the global monetary system. 2) Continued gold purchases by global central banks still provide solid bottom support for gold prices, and the PBOC’s continued increase in holdings further confirms the official sector’s long-term allocation demand. 3) The late-cycle US economy faces multiple constraints of high interest rates, credit contraction, and a growth slowdown. In the future, whether the US Fed cuts interest rates due to an economic slowdown or is forced to maintain higher rates for longer due to sticky inflation, gold possesses strong long-term allocation value: the former is favorable for declining real interest rates, while the latter strengthens demand for safe-haven and credit-risk protection. Overall, gold remains in a favorable window in the medium and long term, and its price center is expected to continue shifting upward amid the reshaping of the global macro and geopolitical landscape. Recommended Reading:

[SMM Daily Review: US-Iran Strait Games Tug-of-War, Silver Prices Move Sideways] SMM August 4 – The US and Iran hold different positions on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to mixed bullish and bearish factors in precious metals. South Korea's central bank gold purchases provide medium and long-term support. Spot cargo offers are firm at the beginning of the month, with transactions remaining at parity, while weak demand persists.

[SMM Precious Metal Express] The Bank of Korea announced plans to purchase domestically refined gold bars for the first time in 13 years. Following the People's Bank of China's consecutive increases, Korea joins the gold-buying trend, with continued central bank demand expansion providing medium-to-long-term support for gold.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,878.5/mt, briefly touching a high of $1,885.5/mt in Asian trading before drifting lower. As the US dollar index rebounded, LME lead came under pressure and hit a low of $1,858.5/mt during European trading, eventually settling at $1,867/mt, down 0.72%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at a high of 15,385 yuan/mt, then drifted lower as bears added positions. It touched an intraday low of 15,205 yuan/mt before moving sideways, ultimately settling at 15,255 yuan/mt, down 1.13%. On the macro front: The US Treasury raised its Q3 borrowing estimate to $739 billion. Twenty-five US states filed a lawsuit against the latest tariff measures by the US government. The Bank of Korea planned to purchase domestic refined gold bars for the first time in 13 years. Fed's Williams: was optimistic that inflationary pressures will gradually ease. If inflation does not return to the 2% path as expected, the Fed will act to achieve price stability. China's Ministry of Commerce: Foreign enterprises have filed a Section 337 investigation application concerning certain secondary cylindrical batteries, battery components, and products containing the same. The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong jointly announced new measures to deepen practical cooperation and close coordinated development between the two markets. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead extended its decline, initially falling to a more than three-year low. Suppliers diverged significantly on shipments, with some planning to deliver to warehouses and others selling at prevailing prices. Quotations in mainstream producing areas were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 20 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price, ex-works. For secondary lead, smelters held back from selling at low prices, with few offering material; some secondary refined lead was quoted at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, and a few at a premium of 200 yuan/mt. Meanwhile, downstream enterprises maintained a strong wait-and-see sentiment, though some showed intentions to buy the dip; trading activity in the spot market improved slightly. Inventory: On August 3, LME lead inventory decreased by 2,825 mt to 438,450 mt. As of August 3, total social inventory of SMM lead ingot in five regions was 72,100 mt, up 3,700 mt from July 27 and up 3,600 mt from July 30. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Recently, lead prices have fallen successively, hitting a new low for nearly three years. Downstream lead-acid battery enterprises have maintained a strong risk-off sentiment and stayed cautious in procurement. Against a backdrop of sluggish consumption, in-factory inventory at lead smelters has been rising steadily since late July. Primary lead suppliers gradually shifted lead ingots to delivery warehouses, pushing social inventory higher. Before delivery, suppliers are expected to continue such transfers, and social inventory of lead ingots will extend its upward trend. Due to expectations of additional maintenance at primary and secondary lead smelters, the slowdown in lead ingot supply will curb the increase in inventory. Overall, bearish factors for lead prices remain strong, and the support from supply-side slowdown on lead prices should be monitored.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: Nearby Month Squeeze Bulls Continue to Push Up Zinc Prices, LME Zinc Hits Four-Year High]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,645.5/mt, initially fell and then rose, hitting a high of $3,703.5/mt during the session, then continuously pulled back from the high, and near the end of the session dipped to a low of $3,618/mt, finally closing down at $3,634/mt, losing $6/mt, or 0.16%. Trading volume increased by 4,655 lots to 18,193 lots···

02 July 2026 Precious metals ended a record FY25/26 on a soft footing, with the USD gold price falling by close to 15% between March and June, its worst quarterly performance in more than a decade. This price fall—which began at the end of January—was caused by a strengthening U.S. dollar, a sharp rise in bond yields, a complete 180 from the market as it relates to interest rate expectations (with rate hikes in the United States now priced in), liquidity needs caused by the U.S.-Iran war, and a washout of the extreme bullishness and speculation that had crept into the gold and silver market earlier this year. There was also a huge surge in the stock market between March and early June (the S&P 500 was up over 20% during this period) as euphoria took over any tech- or AI-related trades. In the short-term at least, this diminished the safe-haven appeal of precious metals. While the pullback has been painful for some, it was certainly not unexpected—and was in many ways necessary, as long-term bull markets in any asset classes do require periodic consolidations. Importantly, the pullback has likely done its worst in terms of performance and price falls. It has also totally reset sentiment in the precious metal market, with euphoria replaced by fear and/or apathy—typically the kind of market conditions that reward buyers. It is also worth pointing out that despite the sell-off over the past five months, both gold and silver ended the financial year delivering strong gains for Australian investors, with the AUD gold price rising by 16%, while silver was up by over 50%. Take a longer-term view and the results are even more impressive, with the gold price up by more than 100% since June 2023. Silver has rallied by close to 150% over the same period, with the two precious metals strongly outperforming traditional assets over this period. The strong rally over the past three years has been driven by multiple factors, including: Strong Central Bank Buying : Central banks bought 3,000 tonnes of gold between 2003 and 2025, with a further 243 tonnes of buying in Q1 2026. Surveys of central bankers suggest holdings will continue to grow, with gold set to play a more important role as a reserve asset in the decade ahead. ETF Inflows in 2025: ETF holders were substantial net sellers between 2021 and 2024, with net sales each year and a total of 544 tonnes coming out of these products in that period. The tide turned from late 2024 onward, with almost 1,000 tonnes of inflows seen in the last 18 months. Surge in Demand for Retail Bars and Coins : Global bar and coin demand was 42% higher year-on-year in Q1 2026, while buying from this segment of the market topped 1,400 tonnes in 2025 (up 16% on 2024). A longer-term view is even more eye-opening, with gold bar and coin buying from 2023-2025 inclusive topping 3,800 tonnes (more than 30% of all mine output in that period). That level of buying is 13% higher than we saw in the three-year window from 2020-2022 inclusive, a period that included the Covid-19 pandemic. Source: World Gold Council Q1 2026 Gold Demand Trends When you factor in dollar-based spending on bars and coins—with gold prices substantially higher in the 2023-2026 window vs the 2020-2023 window—the result is even more impressive. Outlook For 2026/27 Financial Year ABC Bullion remains optimistic on the outlook for bullion this year, with the huge pullback that we have seen in the last five months setting a base from which the long-term bull market can resume. The challenges posed by overvaluation assets remain unresolved, with the S&P 500 starting this new financial year trading above 40-times cyclically adjusted earnings. Inflation remains at problematic levels, with no easy way to use interest rates to bring it down, given the debt and deficit levels seen across the developed world, headlined by the United States, which will soon clock over USD $40 trillion in debt. I can personally remember when that number was closer to USD $10 trillion when the Global Financial Crisis hit. Heightened geopolitical conflict will be with us for the foreseeable future, creating permanent uncertainty as it relates to energy security and the potential for commodity price shocks. Last but not least, Western investors remain very lightly exposed to genuine safe-haven assets that can help protect their portfolio and provide a source of growth during otherwise challenging periods. Government bonds—which are likely to be a source of return-free risk, rather than risk-free return—will likely continue to drag on investor portfolios, with physical gold the only asset that has the market size, the liquidity and the risk/return profile to fill that gap. With a textbook correction now played out, sentiment readings that have historically been followed by an average 16% gain in the year that followed, and a 100% win-rate (data thanks to Sentiment Trader ), now is a great time to be looking to add more bullion to a portfolio. Until next time. Source： https://www.abcbullion.com/insights/market-updates/gold-set-for-a-strong-rally-as-new-financial-year-begins

Hong Kong is further solidifying its position as a major Asian bullion trading hub, with several banks reportedly importing large gold bars ahead of the planned launch of a new central gold clearing system in July. At least four of the 11 banks participating in the new mechanism have asked traders to move 400-ounce gold bars into the city, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter. The bars meet the London Good Delivery standard, the global benchmark for wholesale physical gold trading. The move suggests that banks are building up physical inventories to support delivery once the clearing system begins operating. The 400-ounce gold bar is the standard format used in London, the world’s largest bullion trading hub. These bars are commonly traded among banks, sovereign entities, and large institutional players. In Asia, however, gold trading is more commonly conducted in smaller kilogram bars, or kilobars. The decision to bring in 400-ounce bars therefore reflects Hong Kong’s intention to align its new clearing system with international bullion market practices, at least at launch. According to people familiar with the preparations, banks need to hold sufficient gold inventories in Hong Kong to facilitate physical delivery when clearing begins. The Role of the New Clearing Company The Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company Limited is spearheading the development of this upcoming mechanism. Its board comprises 11 banks, including six international lenders, as well as other industry participants. Some of these lenders are expected to act as clearing banks when the system launches, while others may need more time to build the necessary bullion trading and settlement capabilities. Hong Kong’s Financial Services and Treasury Bureau said the clearing company has been working closely with the market to formulate the framework and rules for the system. Preparatory work has entered its final stage, according to the bureau. Hong Kong’s planned gold clearing system is expected to closely resemble key parts of London’s bullion market infrastructure. One important feature is the use of unallocated accounts. These accounts allow market participants to trade gold without assigning specific physical bars to each transaction. This structure helps improve liquidity and allows for faster, larger-scale settlement. At launch, Hong Kong plans to use the London Good Delivery standard. Longer-term arrangements, including whether the system will expand to other bar formats or delivery standards, are still to be determined. Competition With Singapore Hong Kong’s launch comes as competition intensifies among Asian financial centers seeking a larger role in the global gold market. Singapore has also announced plans to launch its gold clearing mechanism by the end of the year. Its system is expected to align with the London Good Delivery framework for large bars while also supporting delivery and settlement standards for kilobars used by major exchanges in Chicago and Shanghai. By moving first, Hong Kong could gain an advantage in attracting banks, trading houses, and institutional investors seeking more options for bullion trading and settlement in Asia. Both Hong Kong and Singapore are trying to capitalize on strong demand for gold across Asia. Many investors continue to view the precious metal as a long-term store of wealth and a hedge against uncertainty. Gold prices reached record highs earlier this year before retreating as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and expectations of higher interest rates weighed on the market. Despite the pullback, demand for gold infrastructure in Asia remains significant, particularly as investors and financial institutions seek alternatives to traditional Western trading centers. Conclusion The reported import of London-standard 400-ounce gold bars marks a practical step in Hong Kong’s effort to build a deeper and more liquid bullion market. If the clearing system launches as planned in July, it could give Hong Kong a stronger role in regional gold trading by offering market participants a local platform for settlement, delivery, and liquidity. For now, the inventory buildup by participating banks signals that preparations are entering their final stage and that Hong Kong is positioning itself as a more important bridge between Asia’s gold demand and the global bullion market. source： https://www.phoenixrefining.com/blog/hong-kong-banks-build-gold-inventories-ahead-of-new-bullion-clearing-system-launch