As of July 11, 2026, the direct reduced iron (DRI) plant of Jindal Steel Oman in Sohar operated continuously for 188 days without any unplanned shutdowns. The 6.5-meter shaft furnace set a record for the highest monthly production of 185,710 mt in May 2026, with an average operating rate of 249.6 mt per hour. The facility’s production exceeded its original designed capacity of 1.5 million mt by 33%, establishing a new global benchmark for operational efficiency. The Sohar plant integrates gas-based direct reduction (using reformed natural gas to reduce iron ore) with a 220-mt Danieli electric furnace, where hot DRI is charged directly into the furnace by gravity. Billed as the world’s first gravity-fed hot DRI charging system, it achieves significant energy savings. In early 2026, the EAF side also set records: monthly production of 235,112 mt of liquid steel at a rate of 324 mt/hour, with a charge mix of 61% hot DRI, 37% cold DRI, and 2% hot briquetted iron (HBI), and electricity consumption of 493 kWh per mt of steel. In other words, from reduction to melting, this is a fully integrated DRI-EAF process, and the high stability of the shaft furnace serves as the foundation for the entire chain’s efficiency. Jindal’s record carries weight because it falls within a strengthening megatrend. According to data from Midrex and the World Steel Association, global DRI production reached 140.8 million mt in 2024, setting a new record high, up 3.8% YoY (the previous record was 135.7 million mt in 2023). The cumulative increase since 2019 is approximately 32.7 million mt, an increase of over 30%. More notably, this growth outpaced the mild 1% growth in global crude steel production over the same period. The DRI route is steadily expanding its share in the overall steel landscape. Midrex technology accounted for 54.1% of total production and approximately 80.1% of shaft-furnace DRI output. However, this growth is highly concentrated. In 2024, India ranked first globally with 54.7 million mt, accounting for over one-third of the total. Iran followed with 34.7 million mt, and together the two countries accounted for about 63% of the global total. Next came Russia (8.0 million mt), Saudi Arabia (6.6 million mt), and Egypt (6.4 million mt). The landscape broadly splits into two segments: one is India’s vast domestic demand-driven system based on coal-based rotary kiln sponge iron, and the other is the gas-based DRI cluster in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) built on cheap natural gas. Jindal Steel Oman’s Sohar plant falls into the latter category. This concentration also means that any disruption in natural gas supply, energy policy, or geopolitical turbulence in one location will be magnified to affect global DRI supply. To grasp the strategic value of such plants, one must place them within the carbon intensity framework. According to the representative route values from the World Steel Association, the blast furnace–converter integrated route emits approximately 2.3 mt CO₂ per mt of steel, while the scrap-based electric furnace route records the lowest at around 0.7 mt. The gas-based direct reduction–electric furnace route falls in between, at roughly 1.43 mt. This means that before green hydrogen direct reduction achieves true scale, gas-based DRI represents the most viable low-carbon iron source pathway beyond the blast furnace. It is not zero-carbon, but it can already reduce the carbon footprint to around 60% of the blast furnace route. A gas-based DRI plant like Jindal Shuhar—efficient, low-cost, and running stably—sits right at the sweet spot of this transitional pathway. Placed back into the trade dimension of the ferrous metal industry chain, the Middle East’s gas-based DRI and HBI have long played the role of supplying green iron to Europe, Turkey, and the US. The top five global DRI importers in 2024 were the US (1.5 million mt), Turkey (1.2 million mt), India (900,000 mt), Mexico (800,000 mt), and Italy (700,000 mt). As the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) enters the actual payment phase and embedded carbon costs increase year by year, the premium window for exporting low-carbon iron sources to Europe is opening up. Plants that can spread fixed unit costs thinner and push annualized output to 133% of designed capacity are precisely the most resilient marginal suppliers along this trade flow. Viewed from this angle, Jindal’s 188-day record is not merely a straightforward milestone.

By July 11, 2026, the direct reduced iron (DRI) plant of Jindal Steel Oman in Sohar had operated continuously for 188 days without any unplanned shutdowns. This 6.5-meter shaft furnace set a record high monthly production of 185,710 mt in May 2026, with an average operating rate of 249.6 mt per hour. The facility's production exceeded its original designed capacity of 1.5 million mt by 33%, thereby setting a new global benchmark for operational efficiency. The Sohar facility is an integrated combination of a gas-based direct reduction (using natural gas reformed syngas to reduce iron ore) unit and a 220 mt Danieli electric arc furnace. Hot DRI is gravity-fed directly into the electric furnace, touted as the world's first gravity hot DRI feeding system, achieving significant energy savings. The electric furnace side also set records in early 2026: a monthly output of 235,112 mt of liquid steel with a productivity of 324 mt/hour, a charge mix of 61% hot DRI, 37% cold DRI, and 2% hot briquetted iron (HBI), and electricity consumption of 493 kWh per mt of steel. In other words, from reduction to melting, this is a fully integrated DRI-EAF process, and the high operational stability of the shaft furnace is precisely the foundation of the entire chain's efficiency. This record is significant because it falls within a continuing strong mega-trend. According to statistics from Midrex and the World Steel Association, global direct reduced iron (DRI) production reached 140.8 million mt in 2024, a new record high, up 3.8% YoY (the previous record was 135.7 million mt in 2023); since 2019, it has cumulatively increased by about 32.7 million mt, an increase of over 30%. More notably, this growth rate outpaced the mild growth of about 1% in global crude steel production over the same period, with the DRI route steadily expanding its share in the overall steel landscape. Of this, the Midrex process accounted for 54.1% of total production, and an even larger share of about 80.1% in shaft furnace DRI. However, this growth is highly concentrated. In 2024, India ranked first globally with 54.7 million mt, accounting for over one-third of the total; Iran followed with 34.7 million mt, and together these two countries accounted for about 63% of the global total. It was followed by Russia at 8.0 million mt, Saudi Arabia at 6.6 million mt, and Egypt at 6.4 million mt. The landscape is broadly divided into two parts: one is India's massive domestic demand system primarily based on coal-based rotary kiln sponge iron, and the other is a gas-based DRI cluster in the Middle East and North Africa built on cheap natural gas, to which Jindal Steel Oman belongs. This concentration also means that any local natural gas supply, energy policy, or geopolitical disturbance will be amplified to the level of global DRI supply. Gas-Based DRI in the Decarbonization Landscape To understand the strategic value of such plants, one must place them back into the carbon intensity coordinate system. According to the World Steel Association's representative route values, the blast furnace—converter long process is about 2.3 mt CO2 per mt of steel, the scrap-based electric furnace is the lowest at about 0.7 mt, while the gas-based direct reduction—electric furnace is in the middle at about 1.43 mt. This means that, before green hydrogen-based direct reduction truly scales up, gas-based DRI is the most realistic low-carbon iron source route beyond the blast furnace. It is not zero-carbon, but it can already reduce the carbon footprint to about 60% of the long process. Gas-based DRI plants like Jindal Steel Oman, which are efficient, low-cost, and stably operated, exactly stand at the optimal point of this transitional route. Putting it back into the trade dimension of the ferrous industry chain, gas-based DRI and HBI from the Middle East have long played the role of supplying green steel to Europe, Turkey, and the US. In 2024, the top five global DRI importers were the US (1.5 million mt), Turkey (1.2 million mt), India (900,000 mt), Mexico (800,000 mt), and Italy (700,000 mt). As the EU CBAM enters actual payment and the embedded carbon cost rises year by year, the premium space for low-carbon iron source exports to Europe is being opened up, and plants that can spread their unit fixed costs thinner and push their annualized output to 133% of designed capacity are exactly the most resilient marginal suppliers on this trade flow. From this perspective, Jindal's 188-day record is more than just a simple milestone.

According to the World Steel Association, global crude steel production reached 155.7 million tonnes in June 2026, marking a 1.7% year-on-year increase. Africa recorded the strongest regional growth with a 20% rise to 2.2 million tonnes, while production in the Middle East fell by 13.4% amid ongoing logistical disruptions. Despite the monthly gain, total global production during the first half of 2026 stood 0.7% below the same period last year, indicating an uneven market recovery.

Off-season weakness, high power and scrap costs, and defensive output cuts drag global crude steel production down 1.4% month-on-month to 155.7 million mt in June 2026.

According to the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs and compiled by SMM, China's SiMn exports in June 2026 stood at 367.39 mt, down 94.06% MoM and down 68.10% YoY. Total SiMn exports in January-June reached 21,616.28 mt, up 53.65% YoY. The sharp drop in SiMn exports in June was mainly due to three overlapping factors: ensuring domestic supply, weak overseas demand, and holding back from selling amid losses.

On July 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.32 million mt of steel in June 2026, down 21,000 mt MoM or 0.2% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to June reached 54.874 million mt, down 5.6% YoY. In June 2026, China imported 441,000 mt of steel, down 10,000 mt MoM or 2.2% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to June were 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY. Table 1: Overview of Steel Imports and Exports, January-June Source: SMM Steel Exports Remained High in June According to SMM's June export production schedule survey, planned HRC export volume for the month stood at 1.05 million mt, slightly lower than actual exports in May, with a relatively limited decline. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that steel export orders remained high in mid-April, laying the foundation for high steel exports in May-June. Table 2: China’s Total Steel Exports Source: SMM Steel Imports Stayed Low in June On the import side, steel imports in June were 441,000 mt, down MoM. January-June cumulative imports were 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY. Net steel exports reached 52.178 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global Manufacturing Declined MoM; Domestic New Export Orders Recovered Marginally According to J.P. Morgan global PMI data, the global manufacturing PMI stood at 52.2 in June 2026, still in expansion territory but with momentum slowing for a second consecutive month, mainly due to earlier stockpiling to avoid Middle East shipping risks, while preventive stockpiling demand waned in June. In addition, end-use consumer goods demand in Europe and the US was weak, global export orders fell below the 50 mark, and the ASEAN composite PMI dropped 1 point MoM, with regional sentiment cooling significantly. China's manufacturing new export orders index at 50.1% in June, up 1.5 percentage points MoM, pointed to a marginal recovery in external demand. 2. Supply Outside China Rose MoM; Overall Supply Pressure Intensified Global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 157.9 million mt in May 2026. In China, against a severe backdrop of finished steel destocking falling short of expectations and losses, steel mills proactively brought forward maintenance plans to defensively control output. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world rose 28.8% YoY. The Asian market was unusually resilient, with India's crude steel production recording 14.1 million mt. Meanwhile, Vietnam's production surged 27.2% YoY, driven not by a stress response to trade barriers but by downstream manufacturing entering a concentrated stockpiling phase, coupled with genuine demand from infrastructure projects rushing to meet deadlines ahead of the monsoon season. In contrast, production in the Middle East plunged 19.4% YoY in May, with previous war damage from geopolitical conflicts and wartime energy controls remaining an invisible and heavy ceiling suppressing production resumptions in the region. Production regions in Europe and the US (the US up 9.2% YoY, Germany up 7.3% YoY) maintained relatively active operating rates, supported by new-type data center infrastructure and anticipatory moves to preempt regional trade barriers such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). It is reported that the Middle East recently started offering billet exports and concluded deals. Meanwhile, increased production in India, Vietnam and others also put some pressure on domestic exports. Figure 1: Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price Advantage Narrowed Significantly; Pressure on Export Orders Intensified As of July 16, 2026, HRC export quotations (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS were $510/mt, $408/mt, and $530/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export quotation (FOB) was $493/mt. Currently, China's HRC export quotations are $17/mt, $115/mt, and $37/mt lower than those countries. China's steel export price advantage narrowed significantly MoM from June. The overseas market remained in the off-season, and low-price export promotion remained the main channel for them to relieve domestic pressure. In China, prices remained relatively firm supported by costs. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets narrowed markedly, intensifying pressure on export orders. Figure 2: HRC Quotations in Major Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export Orders Remained at Low Levels in May-June; A Sudden Increase Is Difficult According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, planned HRC exports for this month totaled 1.059 million mt, up 5.2% MoM from actual exports last month. SMM's steel export order data showed that due to the ongoing overseas off-season and consecutive overseas price declines, steel export orders in May-June declined significantly MoM from the previous period. Figure 3: SMM Steel Export Order Volumes Source: SMM 5. Anti-Dumping Cases with Impact Increased in June New anti-dumping related cases in China increased in June, involving products such as steel pipes, coated sheets, cold-rolled, stainless steel, hot-rolled, and medium-thickness plates. Details of the cases and their impact volumes are shown in the table below. Table 3: New Anti-Dumping Cases in June Source: SMM Overall, against the backdrop of the overseas off-season coupled with a narrowing price advantage, the weakness in earlier export orders may gradually be reflected in export data. SMM expects that actual steel exports in July will face some downward pressure. However, as overseas prices continue to pull back and hit bottom, some new procurement demand may be released. Figure 4: Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Source Declaration: All data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute any decision-making advice. Note: This article is original content of this official account. If you need to reprint, whitelist, or cooperate, please contact us. 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IIn June 2026, POSCO held a completion ceremony for its Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) at the Gwangyang steelworks on South Korea's southern coast, approximately 360 kilometers from Seoul, and has initiated the full-scale production of low-carbon steel. With an annual designed capacity of 2.5 million tons , this EAF is the largest single facility of its kind in South Korea. This marks POSCO's first large-scale upstream steelmaking investment in over two decades, signaling the beginning of a structural adjustment to its blast furnace-centric production system. Against the backdrop of the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) entering its definitive payment stage and the tightening of Phase 4 of the Korea Emissions Trading Scheme (K-ETS), the strategic significance of this project outweighs the sheer capacity itself. Project Details & Commissioning Timeline The special significance of this project lies in its time span: since the blow-in of Blast Furnace No. 5 at the Gwangyang plant in April 2000, POSCO had not invested in major upstream steelmaking capacity for over 20 years. This pivot to EAFs represents the first directional shift in its blast furnace-centric hot metal production system in half a century. Regarding technical configuration, the EAF primarily utilizes steel scrap as its raw material, substituting the traditional iron ore-coke reduction route of the blast furnace through scrap melting. This shift achieves up to 75% CO2 emission reductions compared to traditional blast furnaces. The core equipment is supplied by Italy's Tenova, featuring the Consteel continuous scrap charging system and the Consterrer electromagnetic stirring system. POSCO also utilizes the off-gas generated during EAF operations to preheat the scrap, thereby enhancing energy efficiency. The completion ceremony was attended by South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and POSCO Group Chairman Jang In-hwa. Key Timeline Market Impact Post-Commissioning In the short term, the direct market impact of this EAF is relatively mild; its value is predominantly structural and strategic. This can be analyzed through three key threads: raw materials, products, and regulations. Scrap Market — Gradual demand release, but with a cautious pace: In the initial stage of commissioning, POSCO plans to primarily consume internally generated scrap at the Gwangyang plant, keeping external purchases limited; the company estimates external scrap purchases in 2026 to be approximately 2 million tons . Because the green steel market has grown slower than previously expected, scrap consumption in the short term may remain relatively restrained. This means the EAF's upward pull on South Korean and regional scrap prices will be gradual, rather than causing a significant demand spike in the year of commissioning. Entering High-End Flat Products via Hot Metal Blending: POSCO's differentiated approach relies on "hot metal blending" technology, which mixes and refines molten steel from the EAF with hot metal from the blast furnace to lower carbon emissions while maintaining the steel quality required for high-end products. The company has designated high-grade EAF steel as one of its eight strategic products and established an integrated R&D, production, and sales project team, aiming to mass-produce automotive sheets and electrical steel by 2030. This directly addresses the growing demand for low-carbon steel from downstream automotive and electrical clients, distinguishing POSCO's EAF route from ordinary long-product EAF capacities. Regulation & Competition — Low-carbon capacity as a hedge for export competitiveness: The timing of the commissioning is highly aligned with tightening global regulations. The EU CBAM entered its definitive stage on January 1, 2026, requiring imported steel to incur fees for its embodied carbon emissions. This obligation ratio will increase annually from about 2.5% in 2026 to 100% by 2034 (corresponding to the synchronized phase-out of free allowances within the EU). For export-oriented South Korean steelmakers, low-carbon capacity acts as a hedging tool to maintain competitiveness in the European market. Overall, the Gwangyang EAF will not significantly alter POSCO's production volume structure or overall carbon footprint in its first year— 2.5 million tons represents a limited share relative to its total crude steel production. Its true significance lies in establishing a low-carbon product line and corresponding client relationships ahead of the commercialization of hydrogen-reduction steelmaking. It is a layout where the "option value" exceeds the "current capacity value." Global Steel Decarbonization Background The steel industry accounts for approximately 7%–9% of global CO2 emissions (World Steel Association data), making it one of the hardest-to-abate heavy industries. The root of the emission disparities lies in the steelmaking routes: the traditional Blast Furnace-Basic Oxygen Furnace (BF-BOF) process relies on coking coal as energy and a reducing agent, making it the most carbon-intensive route; whereas the Scrap-EAF route relies primarily on electricity, making it the most mature route with the lowest carbon intensity. However, the practical constraint on route transition lies in the existing capacity structure. Within global crude steel production, the BF-BOF route still accounts for roughly 72% ; scrap-based EAF accounts for about 21% , with the remainder being Direct Reduced Iron-EAF (DRI-EAF) and other routes. China, accounting for over half of global production with a nearly 90% blast furnace share, has become the critical variable determining the pace of global steel decarbonization. Targeting the 2050 net-zero goal, mainstream pathways require the production structure to significantly tilt toward EAFs and hydrogen-based direct reduction. Yet, the transition is bottlenecked by a triple constraint: the supply and availability of high-quality scrap, the scaling up of green electricity, and the cost premium of low-carbon steel over traditional products. POSCO's "two-step" arrangement—using EAF as a transition and HyREX hydrogen reduction as the endgame—is a quintessential choice within this global landscape. South Korean Steelmakers' Decarbonization Efforts The decarbonization of the South Korean steel industry is not a solo endeavor by a single enterprise. As early as February 2021, six South Korean steelmakers, including POSCO and Hyundai Steel, jointly issued a 2050 Carbon Neutrality Declaration and established the "Green Steel Committee," comprising industry, academia, research institutions, and government departments. Since then, driven by the dual pressures of policy constraints (K-ETS Phase 4, South Korea's Nationally Determined Contributions - NDC) and external forces (CBAM), each company has formed decarbonization layouts with similar trajectories but different focuses. The common logic for both companies is clear: currently employing "transitional technologies" such as EAFs and hot metal blending to reduce the carbon footprint of products, introducing hydrogen-based direct reduction around 2030, and targeting 2050 for a full transition. The differences lie in their entry points—POSCO is betting on its self-developed HyREX as the core for the hydrogen metallurgy endgame, whereas Hyundai Steel, under its Hy-Cube brand, aims to commercialize high-end flat EAF products (like automotive sheets) much earlier. The commissioning of the Gwangyang EAF is precisely a quantifiable, deliverable milestone in this overarching transition process.

On June 9, customs data showed that China exported 10.341 million mt of steel in May 2026, an increase of 844,000 mt MoM, up 8.9% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to May reached 44.554 million mt, down 8.1% YoY. China imported 451,000 mt of steel in May 2026, a decrease of 14,000 mt MoM, down 3.1% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to May totaled 2.255 million mt, declining 12.2% YoY. Table1 – Steel Import and Export Data Overview, January-May Source: SMM Steel Exports in May Crossed 10 Million mt MoM According to SMM's export schedule survey for May, planned HRC exports that month stood at 1.1435 million mt, up 213,500 mt from actual April exports, a 23% MoM increase. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that from March to April, domestic export prices held a strong advantage in international markets, and overseas demand for semi-finished products remained present. Export orders reached a periodical high in mid-April, providing some support for May exports exceeding 10 million mt. Table 2– China Total Steel Exports Source: SMM Steel Imports in May Declined MoM On the import side, steel imports stood at 451,000 mt in May, edging down MoM. From January to May, China imported a total of 2.255 million mt of steel, down 12.2% YoY; net steel exports reached 42.299 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global manufacturing diverges notably; US accelerates sharply while domestic new export orders slide from highs Global manufacturing activity showed marked divergence in May 2026. The latest PMI data indicates the US accelerated strongly, rising to 54% from 52.7% in April, though cost surges driven by inflation posed significant headwinds. The Eurozone PMI dropped to 47.5% from 48.8%. India continued to demonstrate resilience: its May manufacturing PMI reached 55%, a three-month high, fueled by robust domestic demand, infrastructure spending, and new business growth. China's new export orders index came in at 48.6% in May, down 1.7 percentage points MoM, reflecting some weakening in export demand. 2. Overseas supply continues to decline, particularly evident in the Middle East World Steel Association data shows global crude steel production fell 1.9% YoY to 153.4 million mt in April 2026. Excluding China, output in the rest of the world slid 4.25% MoM, with production schedule paces diverging significantly across regions. Among markets outside China, India and Vietnam maintained high production levels, mainly benefiting from the structural ramp-up dividends brought by new capacity commissioning. Meanwhile, the US and Germany also stood out in April: the US was directly boosted by seasonal Q2 production schedule expansions in high-end manufacturing sectors such as automobiles, while Germany's four consecutive months of production rebound essentially reflected a strategic inventory build by steel mills in response to raw material price fluctuations. In contrast, Middle East production continued its steep YoY plunge during the month, mainly attributable to wartime energy controls and systemic logistical paralysis triggered by the US-Iran conflict and the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Overall, Middle East output remains in contraction. As original recipient countries face a lack of stable supply sources, coupled with the digestion of previous low-priced resources, China's steel export orders may encounter structural opportunities. Figure 1 – Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price advantage remains notable, but Southeast Asian markets show price-cutting behavior to seize market share As of June 5, 2026, HRC export quotations (FOB) from India, Turkey, and the CIS stood at $550/mt, $645/mt, and $535/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export quotation (FOB) was $501/mt. China's HRC export quotations currently stand at discounts of -$49/mt, -$144/mt, and -$34/mt against these countries, keeping its steel export price advantage distinct. Recently, however, Southeast Asia entered its off-season; with domestic demand unable to support elevated prices, there are signs of price reductions to capture orders from the international market and disperse domestic pressures. The price spread between China and Southeast Asia has narrowed somewhat. Figure 2 – HRC Quotations in Key Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export orders dropped notably in May, with a related slowdown after concentrated procurement According to SMM's latest survey of steel mill export schedules, planned HRC exports this month stand at 1.03 million mt, roughly steady compared with actual exports last month. SMM steel export order data indicates that, affected by holidays, export orders in May declined noticeably from April on a MoM basis. Orders for both flat products and long products slipped, signaling that overseas buyers have slowed their procurement pace after the earlier round of concentrated procurement. Figure 3 – SMM Steel Export Order Volumes Source: SMM 5. HRC faced the most cases entering the enforcement stage in May After the concentrated final rulings of anti-dumping cases in April, anti-dumping cases decreased somewhat in May, involving products including HRC, coiled rebar, section steel, and steel pipes. Specific cases and their affected volumes are shown in the table below: Table – New Anti-Dumping Cases in May Source: SMM Taking all factors into consideration, as the new export orders index narrows somewhat, Southeast Asian markets cut prices to compete for orders, and the significant contraction in export order volumes over the previous two months gradually feeds through to the shipment stage, the cushioning effect from earlier orders will weaken considerably. SMM expects that actual total steel exports in June will face some downward pressure. At the same time, as overseas supply of previously low-priced materials is absorbed and Chinese prices remain competitive, domestic export orders may show a bottoming-out recovery trend. Recent feedback from the Southeast Asian market also indicates new procurement demand for semi-finished products. Figure 4 – Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Disclaimer on Data Sources: Except for publicly available information, all other data herein are processed and derived by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. The content is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work published on this official account. For requests regarding reproduction, whitelist access, cooperation, or other matters, please contact us. Without permission, the content shall not be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to third parties or licensed for third-party use. 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[SMM Steel] Global crude steel production declined 1.9% y-o-y to 153.4 million mt in April 2026, while January-April output fell 2.0% y-o-y to 613.3 million mt, according to worldsteel data. China’s April crude steel output dropped 2.8% y-o-y to 83.6 million mt, while India, South Korea, and the US recorded growth of 3.9%, 4.8%, and 9.4% respectively. EU-27 output declined 1.8% y-o-y to 11.0 million mt, while CIS production fell sharply by 13.4% y-o-y. Market participants said global steel production remains under pressure from weak demand and ongoing regional trade and geopolitical uncertainties.

On May 9, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 9.498 million mt of steel in April 2026, up 363,000 mt MoM, a 4.0% increase MoM; cumulative steel exports from January to April totaled 34.214 million mt, down 9.7% YoY. In April 2026, China imported 465,000 mt of steel, down 47,000 mt MoM, a 9.2% decrease MoM; cumulative steel imports from January to April totaled 1.804 million mt, down 13.4% YoY. China's Steel Exports Continued to Increase MoM in April According to SMM's April export schedule survey, HRC export plans for the month were 851,000 mt, up 67,000 mt from actual exports in March, an 8.5% increase MoM. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that as production gradually resumed in March and ex-China demand recovered somewhat, combined with the semi-finished products gap caused by the US-Iran conflict, China leveraged its perfect price advantage and superior geographical location to effectively capture Southeast Asian semi-finished products import demand. This led to export orders increasing by over 30% MoM in March. However, since the incremental data was mostly semi-finished products, the impact may become more apparent when the late-month product-specific data is released. China's Steel Imports Increased MoM in March Import side, from January to March, China's cumulative steel imports totaled 1.804 million mt, down 13.4% YoY; net steel exports reached 32.41 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook According to S&P Global data, the global manufacturing PMI in April 2026 was 52.6%, up 1.3 percentage points MoM, operating above 50% for 13 consecutive months. The US was in strong expansion territory, and other European and American countries were also in expansion territory. In April, China's manufacturing new export orders index was 50.3%, up 4.1 percentage points MoM, finally returning to expansion territory after 24 months. World Steel Association monitoring data showed that global crude steel production in March 2026 fell 4.2% YoY to 159.9 million mt. China's production pullback was mainly driven by steel mills proactively cutting production as profits were squeezed. Excluding China, global production in other regions also declined 0.55% MoM, with significant divergence in production schedule pace across regions. In markets outside China, India maintained high production schedules, boosted by fiscal year-end target sprints, up 9.4% YoY. In contrast, the Middle East (particularly Iran) saw production plunge 33.5% YoY. The continued contraction in Middle Eastern production has created structural opportunities for China's steel exports, particularly semi-finished products exports. As of May 8, 2026, HRC export prices (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS were $507/mt, $640/mt, and $525/mt respectively, while China's HRC export price (FOB) was $507/mt. Currently, China's HRC export prices were -$73/mt, -$133/mt, and -$18/mt compared to these countries respectively. The price spread advantage showed no significant change MoM. Overall, China's steel export price advantage remains significant. Chart 1 - Global Major Market HRC Prices Based on SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, HRC export plans for this month were 1.1435 million mt, up 213,500 mt from actual exports last month, a 23% increase MoM. According to SMM steel export order data, affected by holidays, steel export orders in April weakened slightly by 0.57% MoM from March. However, it was also learned that shipping to the Middle East is gradually recovering, with some cargo currently being unloaded at Fujairah Port in the UAE and then transported overland to other Middle Eastern countries. Slab orders destined for Southeast Asia also increased notably in April, with shipping dates mostly in May-June. Taking all factors into consideration, with the new export orders index returning to expansion territory, export price advantages remaining significant, and strong export order performance, SMM expects China's steel exports to continue increasing in May, with semi-finished products continuing to contribute the dominant force! Chart 2 - SMM Steel Export Order Volume Note: This article is original content of this official account. For reprinting, whitelisting, or cooperation needs, please contact us. Without permission, the content above shall not be reprinted, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or disclosed to third parties in any other form, nor shall third parties be licensed to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will take legal measures to pursue infringement liability, including but not limited to demanding contractual breach liability, return of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses.