SMM, July 18: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market nearly all rose. SHFE copper increased 0.15%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.22%, SHFE lead gained 0.69%, SHFE zinc fell 0.85%, and SHFE tin jumped 1.57%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.28%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 1.64%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum contract climbed 0.67%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel dipped 0.3%, iron ore declined 0.46%, rebar dropped 0.35%, and HRC slipped 0.36%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.34%, and the most-traded coke contract increased 0.56%. Overnight in the overseas market, LME base metals broadly fell. LME copper edged down 0.11%, LME aluminum dipped 0.33%, LME lead rose 0.96%, LME zinc fell 1.48%, LME tin edged up 0.73%, and LME nickel declined 0.38%. Overnight, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.77%, with its weekly line falling as it dropped 2.2% for the week; COMEX silver inched up 0.06%, with its weekly line declining for a second straight week, down 6.56% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.67%, with its weekly line falling for a second straight week, down 3.07% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.05%, declining for two consecutive weeks with a weekly loss of 7.85%. Data from the World Gold Council showed gold prices weakened in June, erasing earlier gains, leaving H1 ending with a decline. Despite outflows in June, China's gold ETFs still recorded significant inflows in H1, pushing total assets under management (AUM) slightly higher to 243 billion yuan and total holdings up by 29 mt to 277 mt. In June, China's gold ETFs saw outflows of 15 billion yuan, the weakest monthly performance on record. (From Wall Street CN APP) As of 8:45 am, July 18, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic: [Ministry of Finance, Two Other Departments Adjust Consumption Tax Policy for Certain Batteries] On July 17, the Ministry of Finance announced that, starting September 1, 2026, a 2% consumption tax will be levied on mercury-free primary cells, nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium primary cells, lithium-ion batteries, and all-vanadium flow batteries; from September 1, 2027, a 4% consumption tax rate will apply to these battery products. Starting April 1, 2027, a 2% consumption tax will be levied on solar cells; from April 1, 2028, the rate on solar cells will rise to 4%. From September 1, 2026 to December 31, 2028, consumption tax will be exempted for sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, fuel cells, as well as for perovskite cells, tandem cells, and gallium arsenide cells among solar cells. [MIIT: Automotive Producers Required to Firmly Resist Irrational Competition and Strengthen Product Testing, Verification, and Safety Assessment] On July 17, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) convened a symposium for key automotive producers, deploying efforts to further regulate competition order in the automotive industry, enhance production conformity and quality safety levels of automotive products, and carry out key tasks such as safety risk and hazard investigations and inspections and supervision of automotive products. (from Wall Street CN app) [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Advance Urban Renewal with High Quality and Intensify the Implementation of the Renovation of Old Urban Residential Communities] On July 17, the Party Leadership Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held an expanded study session of the theoretical study center group. The meeting stressed that carrying out urban work in the new era and on the new journey is a glorious mission with arduous tasks. It called for advancing urban renewal with high quality, promoting urban governance with high efficiency, and building “four-good” construction of good houses, good residential communities, good neighborhoods, and good urban districts to high standards. It emphasized intensifying efforts to implement livelihood-related projects such as the renovation of old urban residential communities, the construction of complete communities, the improvement of property service quality, the environmental remediation of back alleys and lanes, the development of pocket parks, and the opening and sharing of green spaces. It called for making great efforts to solve the most pressing difficulties and problems faced by the people, such as the installation of elevators, parking, and charging, striving to make people’s urban life more convenient, comfortable, and beautiful, and seizing the momentum to open up a new landscape in the modernization and construction of people-oriented cities. (China Construction News) [The “Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of ‘AI+Manufacturing’ in Shanghai” Issued] The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Informatization has issued the “Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of ‘AI+Manufacturing’ in Shanghai.” It mentions promoting breakthroughs in key and core technologies. Support will be provided for breakthroughs in technologies such as knowledge graph integration and text-to-3D parts design, focusing on frontier fields including industrial vertical large models, AI programming large models, physical AI, industrial agents, industrial software, and the industrial Internet, with a maximum support of 20 million yuan. For the R&D of comprehensive security solutions for industrial large models and agents, a maximum support of 10 million yuan will be provided. The measures aim to reduce the cost of using intelligent elements. Industrial intelligent computing cloud platforms are encouraged to provide manufacturing enterprises with low-code agent development platforms and free trials of industrial agents, distribute platform token trial coupons, and introduce computing power benefit packages for enterprises. Support will be given for renting non-affiliated intelligent computing resources to carry out the R&D and application of industrial large models and industrial agents, with a maximum subsidy of 40 million yuan. Supports using third-party large models or private deployment of third-party large models to advance industrial vertical applications, with a maximum subsidy of 5 million yuan. Supports purchasing high-quality corpora for the R&D and application of industrial vertical large models and industrial agents, with a maximum subsidy of 5 million yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) On the dollar: The US dollar index edged up 0.03% overnight to 100.76. On the weekly chart: The US dollar index fell for the week, down 0.2%. According to the latest survey, US consumer sentiment surged to a five-month high in early July, boosted by falling gasoline prices. The survey results released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for July rose to 54.4 from 49.5 in June, compared with market expectations of 51. Gasoline prices fell steadily from June through early July, effectively easing household budget pressures. However, renewed tensions in the Middle East have since begun to push oil prices higher and cloud the inflation outlook further. The survey covered the period from June 23 to July 13, but the report noted that over 70% of responses were completed before the US airstrikes against Iran in early July. The improvement in consumer sentiment was broad-based across age, income groups, and political affiliations. (from Wallstreetcn APP) US housing starts surged in June after a sharp drop the previous month, driven by a rebound in apartment construction. Official data released Friday showed that housing starts increased 19% to an annualized rate of 1.43 million units, the highest since March and exceeding economists' expectations. Starts for multifamily housing jumped over 76% to an annualized rate of 532,000 units, following a plunge of nearly 40% in the prior month. Meanwhile, single-family starts slipped 0.2%, declining again after builders experienced a sluggish spring. The rebound in multifamily construction underscores the volatility of monthly data, especially in the apartment sector. However, high home prices and elevated mortgage rates have been weighing on demand for single-family homes, factors that may be supporting apartment demand. At the same time, single-family builders have generally faced high inventory and weak demand. This has forced many builders to attract buyers through sales incentives. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors, said that the dollar has been supported this year by safe-haven inflows and market pricing of Fed rate hikes, but these factors are already reflected in the exchange rate, so the dollar is set to resume its multi-year depreciation trend. Her baseline forecast is that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged throughout the year, but Mokuta said the risk of a rate hike remains. Even if a hike occurs, it has already been priced into the dollar and would therefore not have much additional impact; whereas if a rate hike fails to materialize, it would weaken the dollar. As concerns over the US fiscal outlook persist, the dollar will return to its long-term depreciation trend. (from Wallstreetcn APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of China’s one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for July 20, Germany June PPI MoM, Canada June CPI MoM, US June Conference Board Leading Index MoM, Switzerland June trade balance, UK May three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK June public sector net borrowing, UK June unemployment rate, UK June claimant count change, Germany July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US ADP employment change for the week ending July 4, UK June CPI MoM, UK June RPI MoM, China’s June SWIFT share of the Chinese yuan in global payments, Australia June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, UK July CBI industrial orders balance, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate decision on July 23, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate decision on July 23, Canada May retail sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18, Eurozone July consumer confidence preliminary, UK July GfK consumer confidence, Japan June core CPI YoY, Germany August GfK consumer confidence, UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, France July manufacturing PMI flash, Germany July manufacturing PMI flash, Eurozone July manufacturing PMI flash, UK July manufacturing PMI flash, UK July services PMI flash, US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash, US July S&P Global services PMI flash, and US June new home sales annualized, among other data. Also next week, attention will be on: the ECB interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde’s monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures surged, with WTI up 4.46% and Brent up 4.78%. Weekly: WTI futures gained for a second straight week, up 14.51% for the week; Brent futures gained for two consecutive weeks, up 16.12%. On Friday, the Middle East situation deteriorated further, and the escalation of geopolitical conflicts drove a sharp rally in crude oil. Data released by Kpler, an international market service provider, on the 17th showed that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to weaken on the 16th, with confirmed transits falling to 8 vessels, the lowest in nearly three weeks. (From Wallstreetcn APP) International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol warned on the 16th that if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz cannot be restored in a few weeks, global energy security will raise a red flag. According to UK sources, Birol told an event hosted by the Council on Foreign Relations that oil supply security remains a key issue at present, and the world should be concerned if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not improve in the coming weeks. He said that the response measures taken by some countries “cannot last forever”; even if the US significantly increases oil production, it would be far from enough to offset the supply gap caused by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV News) Energy services company Baker Hughes said US energy firms added rigs for a fifth straight week this week, the first such streak since early June, pushing the total count to the highest level since April 2025. As an early indicator of future production, the total rig count rose by 7 to 588 in the week ended July 17, according to Baker Hughes. The company said this week’s increase lifted the total rig count by 44, or 8%, compared to the same period last year. Baker Hughes reported that oil rigs increased by 7 this week to 452, the highest since May 2025; the number of natural gas rigs held steady at 126, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged at 10. (From Wallstreetcn APP) It is worth noting that: The NYMEX August crude oil futures will be affected by contract rollover. The final floor trading will conclude at 2:30 a.m. on July 22, followed by the final electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Pay attention to exchange announcements regarding expiration and contract rollover to manage risks. In addition, some trading platforms’ US oil contracts typically expire one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule; please take note. Recommended Reading:

Germany’s latest auction for rooftop and noise-barrier solar installations, held on June 1, 2026, remained undersubscribed. The Federal Network Agency offered 296MW of capacity and received 125 bids totaling 238MW. After excluding 17 bids, it awarded 108 projects with a combined capacity of 208.57MW. Although both bid volume and awarded capacity increased from the previous February round, they remained below the tendered volume. Winning projects were mainly located in North Rhine-Westphalia, Lower Saxony, Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria and Hesse. Awarded prices ranged from EUR 0.0084/kWh to EUR 0.10/kWh, with the weighted average price rising to EUR 0.0972/kWh.

On July 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.32 million mt of steel in June 2026, down 21,000 mt MoM or 0.2% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to June reached 54.874 million mt, down 5.6% YoY. In June 2026, China imported 441,000 mt of steel, down 10,000 mt MoM or 2.2% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to June were 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY. Table 1: Overview of Steel Imports and Exports, January-June Source: SMM Steel Exports Remained High in June According to SMM's June export production schedule survey, planned HRC export volume for the month stood at 1.05 million mt, slightly lower than actual exports in May, with a relatively limited decline. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that steel export orders remained high in mid-April, laying the foundation for high steel exports in May-June. Table 2: China’s Total Steel Exports Source: SMM Steel Imports Stayed Low in June On the import side, steel imports in June were 441,000 mt, down MoM. January-June cumulative imports were 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY. Net steel exports reached 52.178 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global Manufacturing Declined MoM; Domestic New Export Orders Recovered Marginally According to J.P. Morgan global PMI data, the global manufacturing PMI stood at 52.2 in June 2026, still in expansion territory but with momentum slowing for a second consecutive month, mainly due to earlier stockpiling to avoid Middle East shipping risks, while preventive stockpiling demand waned in June. In addition, end-use consumer goods demand in Europe and the US was weak, global export orders fell below the 50 mark, and the ASEAN composite PMI dropped 1 point MoM, with regional sentiment cooling significantly. China's manufacturing new export orders index at 50.1% in June, up 1.5 percentage points MoM, pointed to a marginal recovery in external demand. 2. Supply Outside China Rose MoM; Overall Supply Pressure Intensified Global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 157.9 million mt in May 2026. In China, against a severe backdrop of finished steel destocking falling short of expectations and losses, steel mills proactively brought forward maintenance plans to defensively control output. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world rose 28.8% YoY. The Asian market was unusually resilient, with India's crude steel production recording 14.1 million mt. Meanwhile, Vietnam's production surged 27.2% YoY, driven not by a stress response to trade barriers but by downstream manufacturing entering a concentrated stockpiling phase, coupled with genuine demand from infrastructure projects rushing to meet deadlines ahead of the monsoon season. In contrast, production in the Middle East plunged 19.4% YoY in May, with previous war damage from geopolitical conflicts and wartime energy controls remaining an invisible and heavy ceiling suppressing production resumptions in the region. Production regions in Europe and the US (the US up 9.2% YoY, Germany up 7.3% YoY) maintained relatively active operating rates, supported by new-type data center infrastructure and anticipatory moves to preempt regional trade barriers such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). It is reported that the Middle East recently started offering billet exports and concluded deals. Meanwhile, increased production in India, Vietnam and others also put some pressure on domestic exports. Figure 1: Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price Advantage Narrowed Significantly; Pressure on Export Orders Intensified As of July 16, 2026, HRC export quotations (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS were $510/mt, $408/mt, and $530/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export quotation (FOB) was $493/mt. Currently, China's HRC export quotations are $17/mt, $115/mt, and $37/mt lower than those countries. China's steel export price advantage narrowed significantly MoM from June. The overseas market remained in the off-season, and low-price export promotion remained the main channel for them to relieve domestic pressure. In China, prices remained relatively firm supported by costs. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets narrowed markedly, intensifying pressure on export orders. Figure 2: HRC Quotations in Major Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export Orders Remained at Low Levels in May-June; A Sudden Increase Is Difficult According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, planned HRC exports for this month totaled 1.059 million mt, up 5.2% MoM from actual exports last month. SMM's steel export order data showed that due to the ongoing overseas off-season and consecutive overseas price declines, steel export orders in May-June declined significantly MoM from the previous period. Figure 3: SMM Steel Export Order Volumes Source: SMM 5. Anti-Dumping Cases with Impact Increased in June New anti-dumping related cases in China increased in June, involving products such as steel pipes, coated sheets, cold-rolled, stainless steel, hot-rolled, and medium-thickness plates. Details of the cases and their impact volumes are shown in the table below. Table 3: New Anti-Dumping Cases in June Source: SMM Overall, against the backdrop of the overseas off-season coupled with a narrowing price advantage, the weakness in earlier export orders may gradually be reflected in export data. SMM expects that actual steel exports in July will face some downward pressure. However, as overseas prices continue to pull back and hit bottom, some new procurement demand may be released. Figure 4: Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Source Declaration: All data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute any decision-making advice. Note: This article is original content of this official account. If you need to reprint, whitelist, or cooperate, please contact us. 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Germany installed around 1.28GW of new PV capacity in June 2026, nearly unchanged from 1.29GW in May and above 1.1GW in June 2025, according to the Federal Network Agency. New PV additions reached 7.39GW in the first half of 2026, slightly below around 8GW in the same period last year. Germany’s cumulative installed solar capacity reached 125.2GW by the end of June. Ground-mounted systems accounted for the largest share of June additions at 572.7MW, while rooftop systems added 493.8MW across nearly 32,400 installations. Plug-in solar devices added another 51.7MW. SMM believes Germany’s monthly PV additions remain elevated, although first-half growth has slowed slightly year on year, with rooftop and ground-mounted connection trends still worth monitoring.

Overall, the supply-demand fundamentals of the prebaked anode market are expected to remain stable in H2, but against the backdrop of continuous new capacity release, industry competition may intensify, and price trends will be more influenced by cost-side disruptions and downstream procurement pace.

Albarrie, a manufacturer of nonwoven technical fabrics, will participate in Aluminum Düsseldorf 2026, which will be held in Düsseldorf, Germany, from October 6 to 8, 2026. The company will exhibit its products for the aluminium extrusion industry. Nonwoven technical fabrics are used in aluminium extrusion plants to handle hot aluminium profiles during production. They protect the surface of aluminium profiles as they move through the production line and are also used in filtration and environmental control systems at extrusion facilities. Albarrie manufactures nonwoven technical fabrics for industrial applications. In the aluminium extrusion industry, the company supplies heat felts, roller covers, separator belts, filter bags and containment products used during production.

In the first half of 2026, the new energy commercial vehicle (NECV) sector truly took off. According to CAAM data, China's NECV sales reached 548,000 units in H1 2026, up 36% YoY . Domestic sales accounted for 495,000 units, up 40%, while exports reached 53,000 units, up 8% . The strength in domestic sales can be attributed to two main factors: supportive policies and declining costs . On the policy front, the "two new" initiatives continued to support the scrappage of commercial vehicles with China IV emission standards or below, replacing them with low-emission models, with priority given to electric vehicles. Subsidies for new NECV purchases can reach up to RMB 140,000 per vehicle, and in some regions, this can be stacked to as high as RMB 220,000 per vehicle, substantially shortening the payback period for the price gap between electric and diesel vehicles. On the cost side, with oil prices remaining high this year, the cost advantage of electricity over diesel has become evident . Electric commercial vehicles can save approximately RMB 0.8 per kilometer in energy costs, translating into RMB 80,000 in annual savings for a vehicle travelling 100,000 km per year. In addition, declining battery prices, along with the growing maturity of battery swapping and leasing models, have significantly narrowed the initial purchase price gap between NECVs and their internal combustion engine counterparts. With both policy support and cost improvements in place, the penetration rate of NECVs has climbed steadily. In May, the penetration rate of NECVs in domestic sales reached 40%, up 15 percentage points from the same period last year. Among these, heavy-duty trucks stood out as the brightest spot, with cumulative domestic sales reaching 126,200 units in H1 2026, up 85% year-on-year . The "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Large-Scale Application of New Energy Heavy-Duty Trucks," jointly issued by the Ministry of Transport and other departments, sets clear targets: a penetration rate of 40% and a total stock of 1.6 million units by 2030, providing a clear growth trajectory for the segment. NECV exports have also progressed steadily. In May, the export penetration rate of NECVs exceeded 10% for the first time . Although its share in total commercial vehicle exports remains relatively small, the strategic significance of exports is evident amid increasingly fierce domestic competition. China is deepening its presence in traditional markets such as Asia-Pacific, South America, and Africa, while also breaking into higher-standard markets like Turkey, Australia, and Germany. Chinese commercial vehicles are gradually transitioning from a cost-effective positioning to one defined by high technological sophistication. With domestic NEV sales contracting by 13% year-on-year in H1 2026, and pressure on domestic sales likely to persist, the NECV sector still represents a blue ocean. SMM projects that the ratio of passenger to commercial vehicles in China's NEV market will be approximately 91:9 in 2026, shifting to 87:13 by 2030 . While passenger vehicles will remain the dominant segment, commercial vehicles have higher battery capacities per vehicle, which will meaningfully support long-term demand for upstream battery materials, particularly lithium iron phosphate. In terms of battery capacity, commercial vehicles are also seeing significant gains. In May, the average battery capacity of new energy buses and trucks both exceeded 210 kWh, compared with around 180 kWh in the same period last year. The rise in the share of heavy-duty trucks has been a key factor—the current average battery capacity for new energy heavy-duty trucks has already reached 460 kWh . Looking ahead, as heavy-duty truck penetration continues to increase, the average battery capacity per new energy truck is expected to exceed 300 kWh by 2030. From a global perspective, SMM estimates that in 2026, ICE vehicles will still account for 77.5% of the commercial vehicle market, while NEVs will take a 22.5% share, within which BEVs and PHEVs will account for 17.4% and 5.1%, respectively . BEVs have become the mainstream in NECVs for simple reasons: commercial vehicle operators prioritize per-kilometer costs, and pure electric operation is far cheaper than diesel. Heavy-duty trucks and buses tend to operate on fixed routes, making them ideal for battery swapping solutions, while policy support also favors BEVs. In the long run, BEVs are set to maintain their dominant position in the NECV sector .

Germany’s Bundestag has approved an amended electricity security law enabling tenders for 11 GW of backup generation capacity. Two auctions for 4.5 GW each are scheduled for September and December 2026, followed by a 2-GW auction in May 2027 that will also admit battery storage. Supported facilities must remain available for 15 years, be hydrogen-ready and operate climate-neutrally from 2045. The amended law also raises the maximum payment to EUR 244,000/MW and allocates one-third of capacity to northern Germany and two-thirds to the south.

SMM, July 10: Metals market: As of midday close, domestic base metals nearly all rose, with SHFE copper up 1.67%, SHFE aluminum up 0.63%, SHFE lead edging down, SHFE zinc up 1.34%, SHFE tin up 2.18%, and SHFE nickel up 1.1%. Additionally, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.57%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.37%, the most-traded lithium carbonate futures fell 1.67%, the most-traded silicon metal futures rose 2.74%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract rose 2.28%. Ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore rose 0.74%, rebar edged up, and hot-rolled coil edged down. Stainless steel fell 0.49%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.09%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.51%. On the overseas base metals front, as of 11:41, LME metals mostly rose. LME copper rose 0.38%, LME aluminum rose 0.28%, LME lead fell 0.18%, LME zinc rose 0.39%, LME tin rose 0.7%, and LME nickel rose 0.18%. Precious metals, as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.12% and COMEX silver rose 0.16%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold rose 1.15%; the most-traded SHFE silver futures contract rose 3.48%. Additionally, by midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.53%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 3.65%. As of midday close, the most-traded container shipping (Europe route) futures contract rose 1.09% to 2,415 points. As of 11:41 on July 10, midday futures overview: Spot and Fundamentals Zinc: In the Tianjin market, #0 zinc ingot mainly traded at 24,420-24,910 yuan/mt, Zijin traded at 24,540-24,970 yuan/mt, #1 zinc ingot traded around 24,430-24,860 yuan/mt, Zijin was quoted at a discount of 0-10 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract, Huxin was quoted at 26,010 yuan/mt, #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 60-130 yuan/mt against the 2608 contract, and the Tianjin market was quoted at a discount of around 50 yuan/mt against the Shanghai market... Macro Front Domestic: [National Energy Administration: By 2028, Non-Fossil Energy Consumption Share to Increase by About 1 Percentage Point Annually] The National Energy Administration issued the "Energy Sector Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan (2026-2028)." It proposes that by 2028, the non-fossil energy consumption share will increase by an average of about 1 percentage point annually; reasonably control coal consumption of coal-fired power units, striving to raise the proportion of coal power capacity meeting current energy efficiency benchmark standards by 15 percentage points; build a number of zero-carbon and low-carbon coal mining and oil areas; support the construction of a number of zero-carbon parks, achieve significant progress in energy conservation and carbon reduction in key industries, and continuously improve green energy use. It proposed vigorously promoting energy conservation and carbon reduction in thermal power. A batch of eligible coal-fired power units of 300,000 kW and below will be shut down in a prudent and orderly manner, and the construction of replacement units is encouraged according to the requirements of new-generation coal-fired power ; a batch of 600,000 kW coal-fired power units will undergo ultra-supercritical cross-generation upgrading and retrofitting. Support will be given to eligible units for the co-firing of zero-carbon and low-carbon fuels and the retrofitting and construction of carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). After retrofitting and construction, the carbon emission level per kilowatt-hour should be reduced by about 10%. A number of projects integrating coal-fired power, gas-fired power and new energy will be implemented, supporting the coupling of coal-fired power and new energy through thermal energy storage and other energy storage for peak shaving and peak support, integrated collection and transmission, thereby achieving the effect of integrated carbon reduction. (Jin10 Data APP) [China’s Road Transport Capacity Continues to Expand, New Energy Truck Penetration Rate Exceeds 40%] The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the "2026 China Road Transport Capacity Development Report" today (the 10th). According to the report, the road transport market underwent continuous adjustment and optimization in 2025, with the capacity structure accelerating its upgrade towards scale, specialization, and green development; enterprises saw improvements in their risk resilience and operational resilience. Survey data shows that in the current road freight transport capacity structure, internal combustion engine vehicles remain dominant, accounting for about 50%, but new energy vehicles have already formed an irreversible substitution trend in specific scenarios. Among the surveyed enterprises, the penetration rate of new energy trucks was 44.4%. Among enterprises that have already purchased new energy vehicles, 37.5% chose to "continue expanding the new energy fleet," and 37.5% chose to "maintain the current scale." (CCTV News) [New Breakthrough in Green Hydrogen: China Achieves Minute-Level Preparation of Platinum Group Metal Catalysts] Platinum group metal catalysts are core key materials supporting modern industries such as energy, chemical, and environmental sectors. Recently, a team led by Professor Hu Wenbin from Tianjin University proposed a "transient assembly" strategy, developing a millisecond-scale periodic heat pulse technology that achieved ultra-fast synthesis and precise regulation of platinum group metal core-shell structure catalysts, opening up a completely new technical pathway for the atomically precise preparation of platinum group catalysts. The related results were published online in the international academic journal *Science* on July 10, Beijing time. (Xinhua News Agency) [Guangdong: Plans to Accelerate Technological Breakthroughs in Key Frontier Fields Including 6G, Optical Communications, and Satellite Communications] Recently, the "Guangdong Province Information and Communication Industry 15th Five-Year Plan (Draft for Public Comments)" was released to solicit public opinions. It mentioned supporting basic telecommunications enterprises in actively participating in provincial key R&D programs, leveraging strategic scientific and technological forces such as the Pengcheng National Laboratory and industry leaders to help Guangdong’s information and communication industry establish a sound whole-process innovation ecosystem, accelerating technological breakthroughs in key frontier fields including 6G, optical communications, satellite communications, quantum communications, and agentic communications, and strengthening research on new network architectures such as integrated space-ground networks and integrated communication-sensing-computing networks. Focus on cultivating and developing the new 6G track, vigorously promoting the R&D and industrialisation of core components such as next-generation digital baseband chips, RF front-end chips, and 6G modules, as well as next-generation network communication equipment. Conduct application technology research on the integration of quantum encryption with information communication networks and the convergence of quantum computing with classical computing, and achieve breakthroughs in key technologies such as quantum computing, quantum materials, quantum precision measurement, quantum security, and critical core equipment. (Jin10 Data APP) [PBOC reverse repo operations led to a net withdrawal of 43 billion yuan on the day, and a net withdrawal of 416.5 billion yuan for the week] The PBOC conducted 20 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today, and with 63 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos maturing, the net withdrawal for the day was 43 billion yuan. During the week, the PBOC conducted 62 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo and 1,000 billion yuan of outright reverse repo operations. With 678.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos and 800 billion yuan of outright reverse repos maturing, the net withdrawal for the week was 416.5 billion yuan. US dollar side: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.28% to 100.66. According to CME "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed keeps interest rates unchanged in July is 74.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point rate hike is 25.1%. For September, the probability of rates remaining unchanged is 35.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 51.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 13.1%. (Jin10 Data APP) Perli, manager of the New York Fed’s Open Market Account, said that the reserve management purchase operations have no preset course, and the New York Fed’s Open Market Trading Desk may raise or lower purchase amounts depending on money market conditions. Additionally, Perli said that as Fed Chairman Warsh appoints a working group on the Fed’s balance sheet, the trading desk is ready to implement any changes and interest-rate control frameworks the committee may decide to pursue. The Fed began reserve management purchase operations last December, anticipating a rapid drain in reserves in April as tax payments flowed into the Treasury General Account. When the Treasury’s account balance at the Fed increases, reserves in the banking system decline. (Jin10 Data APP) Dallas Fed President Logan said that if the Federal Open Market Committee conducts open market operations through a voluntary central clearing mechanism, it would help improve the efficiency and effectiveness of operations and enhance the stability of US financial markets. Logan noted that such arrangements could improve the use of the Fed’s tools, such as the Standing Repo Facility. The facility is designed to provide liquidity to eligible financial institutions, but market usage remains low. Some believe that streamlining the clearing process could enhance its appeal. She also noted that market leverage levels need to be carefully managed and that financial markets must strike an appropriate balance between the returns and risks of leverage, as well as between leverage and liquidity. (Jinshi Data APP) The latest data showed that for the week ending July 4, which included the US Independence Day holiday, initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 215,000, below market expectations of 217,000 and persisting near historic lows. However, continuing claims, which reflect the state of re-employment among the unemployed, rose to 1.81 million, hitting a new high since March. Persistently low initial jobless claims, together with recent non-farm payrolls data, paint a picture of a US labour market characterised by shrinking layoffs and a slowdown in hiring. (Wall Street CN) Data-wise: Today will see the release of figures including Germany's final CPI MoM for June, France's final CPI MoM for June, Switzerland's June consumer confidence index, Canada's June employment numbers, China's June M2 money supply YoY, China's new RMB loans for the first half of the year, and China's total social financing growth for the first half of the year. Also in focus: a speech by 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan; and the provisional listing of SK Hynix's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) on the Nasdaq on July 10. Crude oil: As of 11:41, oil prices for both benchmarks edged up, with WTI crude rising 0.25% and Brent crude gaining 0.21%. Technical-level talks between the US and Iran are ongoing, with the market closely watching how the US-Iran situation unfolds. According to Fox News, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that Trump believes oil prices will remain at low levels in the future. India's state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has approved an expansion of the country's strategic petroleum reserves, highlighting efforts to strengthen energy resilience following the shock of the Iran conflict. According to a document, the board of India's largest oil and gas producer has approved the addition of 1.75 million mt of national crude oil reserve capacity in Mangalore, Karnataka. Specific costs and a timetable have yet to be announced. Upon completion, the project will increase the reserves managed by the Indian Strategic Petroleum Reserves Ltd. The company currently operates underground storage facilities at three locations on the east and west coasts with a total capacity of 5.33 million mt. In addition, two new sites are under construction that will add 6.5 million mt of storage space. ONGC stated in Friday's filing that the project is of "national importance" and that related supporting facilities will be developed under the directive of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ►] ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, July 10: Metals market side, overnight, base metals on the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 1.58%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.48%, SHFE lead fell 0.19%, SHFE zinc rose 1.26%, SHFE tin rose 2.26%, and SHFE nickel rose 1.08%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.29%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.63%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel fell 0.59%, iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar fell 0.13%, and hot-rolled coil was flat at 3,297 yuan/mt. Coking coal and coke side, the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.79%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 2.15%. Overnight, on the overseas market, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 1.71%, LME aluminum rose 2.29%, LME lead rose 0.19%, LME zinc rose 2.49%, LME tin rose 2.18%, and LME nickel rose 1.13%. Overnight, precious metals side : COMEX gold rose 1.23%, and COMEX silver rose 3.1%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 1.31%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 3.22%. According to Polish central bank Governor Grabinski, the bank purchased billions of dollars worth of gold during the recent dip in gold prices. At a press conference in Warsaw on Thursday, Grabinski said the bank has purchased 82 mt of gold so far this year. This means that since the last official data release in April, the bank added another 37 mt of gold, worth approximately $5 billion at current prices. “Taking advantage of the recent price decline, we have been continuously purchasing gold,” Grabinski said. Poland reported more gold purchases than any other central bank in 2025 and is expected to continue this record this year. Gold prices have fallen over 10% since April. Grabinski reiterated the Polish central bank’s target of 700 mt of gold reserves. He said the bank currently holds 632.4 mt of gold, of which 105 mt is stored in Poland and the rest is held in London and New York. (Jinshi Data APP) Bernstein raised its 2026 gold price forecast, expecting a H2 gold price target of $4,375 per ounce and a full-year target price of $4,533. The firm believes that continued central bank purchases and the high probability that the US Fed will not cut interest rates over the next 12 months will be key factors supporting gold prices. Bernstein expects the Fed to raise rates at most 1 to 2 times, and gold ETF outflow pressure will also be limited. Bernstein noted that in Q2 2026, rising real interest rates caused gold prices to pull back from $4,650/oz to around $4,000, but as rate expectations stabilize, gold still has upside room. The firm also warned that if inflation persistently exceeds expectations, prompting the Fed to hike rates more aggressively, that would become a major risk to gold’s upward movement. (Jinshi Data APP) As of 7:12 AM on July 10, overnight closing market data: Macro front China side: [State Council Issues “15th Five-Year Plan” Carbon Peak Action Plan: Carbon Emissions to Decrease 17% in 2030 Compared with 2025] On July 9, the “15th Five-Year Plan Carbon Peak Action Plan” was released, charting a “roadmap” for China to meet its carbon peak target before 2030. Over the next five years, China’s energy structure will undergo further adjustment and optimization. By 2030, China’s carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 17% from 2025 levels, and non-fossil energy consumption will account for 25% of the total. In terms of specific measures, the Action Plan clearly mandates accelerating energy structure adjustment and optimization and vigorously promoting non-fossil energy development. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, new electricity consumption will be increasingly covered by new clean energy generation. The Action Plan intensifies efforts to promote green and low-carbon industrial development, with a series of new measures being introduced. On one hand, it aims to deepen the low-carbon transition of traditional industries, advancing energy-saving and carbon-reduction projects in steel, aluminum, cement, flat glass, petrochemical engineering and other key industries. On the other hand, it focuses on vigorously developing emerging green and low-carbon industries such as green energy, green manufacturing, and green services. For existing capacity, it emphasizes “improving quality through green transition,” guiding enterprises from a zero-sum cost-driven competition mindset toward an innovative approach of low-carbon and zero-carbon development. For new capacity, it stresses “cultivating the new with green transition,” nurturing and expanding strategic emerging and future industries characterized by green, low-carbon features. In the transportation sector, the Action Plan proposes that by 2030, the ownership share of NEVs should reach 30%, and the ownership share of new energy operating vehicles should reach 25%. By the end of 2025, national NEV ownership accounted for about 12%, meaning this share will more than double within five years. For ordinary citizens, private NEV ownership will further increase during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. US dollar side: Overnight, the US dollar index fell 0.14% to 100.93. The latest data shows that for the week ending July 4 (which includes the US Independence Day holiday), US initial jobless claims decreased by 2,000 to 215,000, below market expectations of 217,000, remaining near historic lows. However, continuing claims, which reflect the re-employment situation for the unemployed, rose to 1.81 million, the highest level since March. Initial jobless claims persistently running low, together with recent non-farm payrolls data, paint a picture of a US labor market characterized by “reduced layoffs, slowing hiring.” (Wall Street News) Fed Chairman Warsh Kevin has established five working groups to conduct a comprehensive review of the Fed’s monetary policy operating framework, covering areas such as balance sheet management, policy tools, and the impact of artificial intelligence. The Fed stated that the working groups will operate independently, conduct fact-based studies, and submit rigorous analyses to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The review will assess whether there is room for improvement in policy tools, analytical methods, and the policy framework. The review teams include several prominent economists and former central bank officials. Among them, Harvard economist Chetty Raj will co-lead the data working group, tech investor Andreessen Marc will head the productivity and employment working group, and former White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Mankiw Gregory will co-lead the inflation working group. Warsh said that the US economy has undergone dramatic changes over the past generation, and the current transformation is occurring at a faster pace, so the Fed needs to ensure it is in optimal condition to achieve its dual mandate of price stability and maximizing employment. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s “Monthly Budget Review: June 2026,” the US federal budget deficit totaled approximately $1.4 trillion in the first nine months of fiscal year 2026, an increase of $35 billion compared to the same period last fiscal year. Federal revenues over the period were $4.2 trillion, up $142 billion or 4%, while outlays were $5.5 trillion, up $178 billion or 3%. (CCTV) New York Fed Open Market Account Manager Perli stated that reserve management purchase operations have no preset course, and the New York Fed’s open market trading desk can adjust purchase amounts higher or lower depending on money market conditions. Additionally, Perli said that amid Fed Chairman Warsh appointing a working group on the Fed’s balance sheet, the trading desk is ready to implement any changes and interest rate control frameworks the committee may decide to adopt. The Fed began conducting reserve management purchase operations last December, driven by expectations that reserves would decline rapidly in April as tax payments flowed into the Treasury General Account. When the Treasury’s account balance at the Fed increases, reserves in the banking system decline. (Jinshi Data APP) Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that if the FOMC conducts open market operations through a voluntarily participated central clearing mechanism, it would help improve operational efficiency and effectiveness, and enhance US financial market stability. Logan noted that such an arrangement could improve the use of Fed tools, such as the Standing Repo Facility, which aims to provide liquidity to eligible institutions but has seen relatively low market usage so far. Some believe that simplifying clearing processes could increase its attractiveness. She also stated that market leverage levels need to be carefully managed, and financial markets must maintain an appropriate balance between the benefits and risks of leverage, and between leverage and liquidity. (Jinshi Data APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July is 74.9%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike is 25.1%. Probability for the September meeting: holding rates steady at 35.7%, a cumulative 25-basis-point hike at 51.1%, and a cumulative 50-basis-point hike at 13.1%. (Jinshi Data APP) Other currencies side: Minutes from the ECB’s June meeting showed the bank could no longer ignore the energy shock, projecting that rising energy prices would push medium-term inflation above its 2% target. The ECB Governing Council unanimously decided to raise key interest rates to 2.25% last month, becoming the first major central bank to hike rates due to elevated energy prices caused by the Iran war. The minutes stated: “The current situation clearly falls no longer into the category of shocks that can be looked through.” “The longer energy prices stay high, the more likely it is that they will push up broader inflation through indirect and second-round effects. This increases the risk that the energy shock becomes entrenched in underlying inflation and medium- to long-term inflation expectations.” (Jinshi Data APP) Macro side: Data scheduled for release today include Germany’s June CPI final monthly rate, France’s June CPI final monthly rate, Switzerland’s June consumer confidence index, Canada’s June employment change, China’s June M2 money supply annual rate, China’s June year-to-date new yuan loans, and China’s June year-to-date aggregate social financing growth. Also in focus: 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan’s speech; SK Hynix’s American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) are tentatively scheduled to list on Nasdaq this July 10. Crude oil side: Overnight, both oil futures fell, with WTI oil down 2.33% and Brent oil down 2.72%. Although US-Iran military conflict escalated overnight, the market’s actual reaction was notably subdued, with crude oil closing lower. Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad noted that the market views this attack as another “controlled escalation,” based on the premise that the economy can withstand the shock. Goldman Sachs’ Privorotsky shared a similar view, indicating that the market signal suggests no real interest from any party in expanding the conflict, preferring instead to maintain bargaining leverage. However, Privorotsky also warned that while crude oil prices have pulled back, the refined product prices that actually feed into inflation have yet to follow. (Wall Street News) The US Central Command stated that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz. Since early May, US forces have been assisting in safeguarding navigational safety in this vital international trade route, with over 800 merchant ships and 380 million barrels of crude oil successfully passing through the strait. (Jinshi Data APP) Additionally, sources said that the Saratov refinery in Russia has been shut down since Wednesday following a drone attack. (Jinshi Data APP)