SMM, July 18: Metals market: Overnight, base metals in the domestic market nearly all rose. SHFE copper increased 0.15%, SHFE aluminum rose 0.22%, SHFE lead gained 0.69%, SHFE zinc fell 0.85%, and SHFE tin jumped 1.57%. SHFE nickel edged down 0.28%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures rose 1.64%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum contract climbed 0.67%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Stainless steel dipped 0.3%, iron ore declined 0.46%, rebar dropped 0.35%, and HRC slipped 0.36%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.34%, and the most-traded coke contract increased 0.56%. Overnight in the overseas market, LME base metals broadly fell. LME copper edged down 0.11%, LME aluminum dipped 0.33%, LME lead rose 0.96%, LME zinc fell 1.48%, LME tin edged up 0.73%, and LME nickel declined 0.38%. Overnight, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.77%, with its weekly line falling as it dropped 2.2% for the week; COMEX silver inched up 0.06%, with its weekly line declining for a second straight week, down 6.56% for the week. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.67%, with its weekly line falling for a second straight week, down 3.07% for the week; the most-traded SHFE silver contract gained 1.05%, declining for two consecutive weeks with a weekly loss of 7.85%. Data from the World Gold Council showed gold prices weakened in June, erasing earlier gains, leaving H1 ending with a decline. Despite outflows in June, China's gold ETFs still recorded significant inflows in H1, pushing total assets under management (AUM) slightly higher to 243 billion yuan and total holdings up by 29 mt to 277 mt. In June, China's gold ETFs saw outflows of 15 billion yuan, the weakest monthly performance on record. (From Wall Street CN APP) As of 8:45 am, July 18, overnight closing prices: Macro front Domestic: [Ministry of Finance, Two Other Departments Adjust Consumption Tax Policy for Certain Batteries] On July 17, the Ministry of Finance announced that, starting September 1, 2026, a 2% consumption tax will be levied on mercury-free primary cells, nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium primary cells, lithium-ion batteries, and all-vanadium flow batteries; from September 1, 2027, a 4% consumption tax rate will apply to these battery products. Starting April 1, 2027, a 2% consumption tax will be levied on solar cells; from April 1, 2028, the rate on solar cells will rise to 4%. From September 1, 2026 to December 31, 2028, consumption tax will be exempted for sodium-ion batteries, solid-state batteries, fuel cells, as well as for perovskite cells, tandem cells, and gallium arsenide cells among solar cells. [MIIT: Automotive Producers Required to Firmly Resist Irrational Competition and Strengthen Product Testing, Verification, and Safety Assessment] On July 17, the Equipment Industry Department I of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) convened a symposium for key automotive producers, deploying efforts to further regulate competition order in the automotive industry, enhance production conformity and quality safety levels of automotive products, and carry out key tasks such as safety risk and hazard investigations and inspections and supervision of automotive products. (from Wall Street CN app) [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development: Advance Urban Renewal with High Quality and Intensify the Implementation of the Renovation of Old Urban Residential Communities] On July 17, the Party Leadership Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development held an expanded study session of the theoretical study center group. The meeting stressed that carrying out urban work in the new era and on the new journey is a glorious mission with arduous tasks. It called for advancing urban renewal with high quality, promoting urban governance with high efficiency, and building “four-good” construction of good houses, good residential communities, good neighborhoods, and good urban districts to high standards. It emphasized intensifying efforts to implement livelihood-related projects such as the renovation of old urban residential communities, the construction of complete communities, the improvement of property service quality, the environmental remediation of back alleys and lanes, the development of pocket parks, and the opening and sharing of green spaces. It called for making great efforts to solve the most pressing difficulties and problems faced by the people, such as the installation of elevators, parking, and charging, striving to make people’s urban life more convenient, comfortable, and beautiful, and seizing the momentum to open up a new landscape in the modernization and construction of people-oriented cities. (China Construction News) [The “Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of ‘AI+Manufacturing’ in Shanghai” Issued] The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Informatization has issued the “Several Measures to Further Promote the Development of ‘AI+Manufacturing’ in Shanghai.” It mentions promoting breakthroughs in key and core technologies. Support will be provided for breakthroughs in technologies such as knowledge graph integration and text-to-3D parts design, focusing on frontier fields including industrial vertical large models, AI programming large models, physical AI, industrial agents, industrial software, and the industrial Internet, with a maximum support of 20 million yuan. For the R&D of comprehensive security solutions for industrial large models and agents, a maximum support of 10 million yuan will be provided. The measures aim to reduce the cost of using intelligent elements. Industrial intelligent computing cloud platforms are encouraged to provide manufacturing enterprises with low-code agent development platforms and free trials of industrial agents, distribute platform token trial coupons, and introduce computing power benefit packages for enterprises. Support will be given for renting non-affiliated intelligent computing resources to carry out the R&D and application of industrial large models and industrial agents, with a maximum subsidy of 40 million yuan. Supports using third-party large models or private deployment of third-party large models to advance industrial vertical applications, with a maximum subsidy of 5 million yuan. Supports purchasing high-quality corpora for the R&D and application of industrial vertical large models and industrial agents, with a maximum subsidy of 5 million yuan. (Jin10 Data APP) On the dollar: The US dollar index edged up 0.03% overnight to 100.76. On the weekly chart: The US dollar index fell for the week, down 0.2%. According to the latest survey, US consumer sentiment surged to a five-month high in early July, boosted by falling gasoline prices. The survey results released on Friday showed that the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for July rose to 54.4 from 49.5 in June, compared with market expectations of 51. Gasoline prices fell steadily from June through early July, effectively easing household budget pressures. However, renewed tensions in the Middle East have since begun to push oil prices higher and cloud the inflation outlook further. The survey covered the period from June 23 to July 13, but the report noted that over 70% of responses were completed before the US airstrikes against Iran in early July. The improvement in consumer sentiment was broad-based across age, income groups, and political affiliations. (from Wallstreetcn APP) US housing starts surged in June after a sharp drop the previous month, driven by a rebound in apartment construction. Official data released Friday showed that housing starts increased 19% to an annualized rate of 1.43 million units, the highest since March and exceeding economists' expectations. Starts for multifamily housing jumped over 76% to an annualized rate of 532,000 units, following a plunge of nearly 40% in the prior month. Meanwhile, single-family starts slipped 0.2%, declining again after builders experienced a sluggish spring. The rebound in multifamily construction underscores the volatility of monthly data, especially in the apartment sector. However, high home prices and elevated mortgage rates have been weighing on demand for single-family homes, factors that may be supporting apartment demand. At the same time, single-family builders have generally faced high inventory and weak demand. This has forced many builders to attract buyers through sales incentives. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors, said that the dollar has been supported this year by safe-haven inflows and market pricing of Fed rate hikes, but these factors are already reflected in the exchange rate, so the dollar is set to resume its multi-year depreciation trend. Her baseline forecast is that the US Fed will keep interest rates unchanged throughout the year, but Mokuta said the risk of a rate hike remains. Even if a hike occurs, it has already been priced into the dollar and would therefore not have much additional impact; whereas if a rate hike fails to materialize, it would weaken the dollar. As concerns over the US fiscal outlook persist, the dollar will return to its long-term depreciation trend. (from Wallstreetcn APP) On the macro front: Next week will see the release of China’s one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for July 20, Germany June PPI MoM, Canada June CPI MoM, US June Conference Board Leading Index MoM, Switzerland June trade balance, UK May three-month ILO unemployment rate, UK June public sector net borrowing, UK June unemployment rate, UK June claimant count change, Germany July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone July ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US ADP employment change for the week ending July 4, UK June CPI MoM, UK June RPI MoM, China’s June SWIFT share of the Chinese yuan in global payments, Australia June seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, UK July CBI industrial orders balance, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate decision on July 23, Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate decision on July 23, Canada May retail sales MoM, US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18, Eurozone July consumer confidence preliminary, UK July GfK consumer confidence, Japan June core CPI YoY, Germany August GfK consumer confidence, UK June seasonally adjusted retail sales MoM, France July manufacturing PMI flash, Germany July manufacturing PMI flash, Eurozone July manufacturing PMI flash, UK July manufacturing PMI flash, UK July services PMI flash, US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash, US July S&P Global services PMI flash, and US June new home sales annualized, among other data. Also next week, attention will be on: the ECB interest rate decision; ECB President Lagarde’s monetary policy press conference. Crude oil: Overnight, both crude oil futures surged, with WTI up 4.46% and Brent up 4.78%. Weekly: WTI futures gained for a second straight week, up 14.51% for the week; Brent futures gained for two consecutive weeks, up 16.12%. On Friday, the Middle East situation deteriorated further, and the escalation of geopolitical conflicts drove a sharp rally in crude oil. Data released by Kpler, an international market service provider, on the 17th showed that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to weaken on the 16th, with confirmed transits falling to 8 vessels, the lowest in nearly three weeks. (From Wallstreetcn APP) IEA Executive Director Birol Fatih warned on the 16th that if oil shipments via the Strait of Hormuz are not restored within weeks, global energy security will be in jeopardy. According to UK sources, Birol said at an event held by the Council on Foreign Relations that oil supply security remains a key concern, and if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz does not improve in the coming weeks, the world should be worried. He said the measures taken by some countries "cannot last forever"; even if the US significantly increases oil production, it will be far from enough to offset the supply gap caused by the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz. (CCTV News) Oilfield services company Baker Hughes said US energy firms this week added oil and natural gas rigs for the fifth consecutive week, the first such streak since early June, bringing the total count to its highest since April 2025. As an early indicator of future output, the total rig count rose by 7 to 588 in the week to July 17. Baker Hughes said this week's increase pushed the total rig count up by 44 rigs, or 8%, compared to the same period last year. Baker Hughes said oil rigs rose by 7 to 452 this week, the highest since May 2025; natural gas rigs were unchanged at 126, and miscellaneous rigs were unchanged at 10. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Notably: NYMEX WTI August crude oil futures will be affected by contract rollover, with the final floor trading completed at 2:30 on July 22 and the final electronic trading completed at 5:00 AM. Please pay attention to the exchange's expiry and rollover announcements to manage risks. In addition, for some trading platforms, the WTI contract expiry is typically one day earlier than the official NYMEX expiry; please be attentive. Recommended Reading:

This week, the ferrous metals sector rebounded slightly overall, with divergence among products: iron ore and hot-rolled coil/rebar performed relatively strong, while coke was relatively weak. Early in the week, affected by sluggish end-use consumption in the off-season and continued pressure on steel mill profits, futures for all products consolidated and weakened; mid-week, driven by the combined effects of rumors of a BHP worker strike, the repeated US-Iran geopolitical conflicts, and rising expectations of environmental protection-driven production restrictions in Tangshan, iron ore and hot-rolled coil/rebar spot and futures prices saw a period of stabilization and rebound. However, from a fundamental perspective, the off-season characteristics on the demand side remained......

SMM Analysis: Since late June, copper premiums cif China have been climbing. Spot premiums for registered copper arriving at China's ports from late July to August have recently breached triple digits, continuously setting new yearly highs...

Next week, key macroeconomic data will include US June housing starts, building permits, industrial production, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, which will influence market expectations for the Fed's rate path. Meanwhile, the ongoing Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to escalate, with shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz falling to about one-tenth of pre-war levels. Geopolitical risks have pushed oil prices higher, raising supply-chain cost expectations. LME lead, within the week LME lead inventory surged by 160,000 mt, sparking risk-off sentiment and driving LME lead to its lowest level in over a year. As lead prices fell, the LME lead Cash-3M spread remained in a deep contango, with the latest quote at -$43.83/mt. Moreover, heightened uncertainty over the Middle East conflict, along with rising energy and shipping costs, may become another factor affecting lead prices. Once the inventory buildup news is digested by the market, lead prices are expected to get a breather. Next week, LME lead is expected to trade at $1,850-1,905/mt. SHFE lead, visible lead ingot inventories first increased then declined this week due to delivery factors and downstream purchasing. After the bearish news of overseas inventory buildup ran its course, market attention in China shifted to the production dynamics of secondary lead enterprises and downstream purchasing trends. If lead ingot inventories continue to destock, lead prices are expected to return to 16,000 yuan/mt. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 15,600-16,150 yuan/mt next week. Spot lead price forecast: 15,650-15,950 yuan/mt. Consumption side, the lead-acid battery market remains in the off-season, with downstream enterprises continuing to purchase as needed. However, as lead ingots re-enter the circulation market after delivery, downstream cargo pick-up is expected to increase. Supply side, secondary lead enterprises maintain low operating rates, with limited supply circulating in the market, while primary lead supply is relatively ample. The spot market is expected to continue trading at a discount.

On July 14, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.32 million mt of steel in June 2026, down 21,000 mt MoM or 0.2% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to June reached 54.874 million mt, down 5.6% YoY. In June 2026, China imported 441,000 mt of steel, down 10,000 mt MoM or 2.2% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to June were 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY. Table 1: Overview of Steel Imports and Exports, January-June Source: SMM Steel Exports Remained High in June According to SMM's June export production schedule survey, planned HRC export volume for the month stood at 1.05 million mt, slightly lower than actual exports in May, with a relatively limited decline. Meanwhile, SMM export order data showed that steel export orders remained high in mid-April, laying the foundation for high steel exports in May-June. Table 2: China’s Total Steel Exports Source: SMM Steel Imports Stayed Low in June On the import side, steel imports in June were 441,000 mt, down MoM. January-June cumulative imports were 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY. Net steel exports reached 52.178 million mt. Short-Term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global Manufacturing Declined MoM; Domestic New Export Orders Recovered Marginally According to J.P. Morgan global PMI data, the global manufacturing PMI stood at 52.2 in June 2026, still in expansion territory but with momentum slowing for a second consecutive month, mainly due to earlier stockpiling to avoid Middle East shipping risks, while preventive stockpiling demand waned in June. In addition, end-use consumer goods demand in Europe and the US was weak, global export orders fell below the 50 mark, and the ASEAN composite PMI dropped 1 point MoM, with regional sentiment cooling significantly. China's manufacturing new export orders index at 50.1% in June, up 1.5 percentage points MoM, pointed to a marginal recovery in external demand. 2. Supply Outside China Rose MoM; Overall Supply Pressure Intensified Global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 157.9 million mt in May 2026. In China, against a severe backdrop of finished steel destocking falling short of expectations and losses, steel mills proactively brought forward maintenance plans to defensively control output. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world rose 28.8% YoY. The Asian market was unusually resilient, with India's crude steel production recording 14.1 million mt. Meanwhile, Vietnam's production surged 27.2% YoY, driven not by a stress response to trade barriers but by downstream manufacturing entering a concentrated stockpiling phase, coupled with genuine demand from infrastructure projects rushing to meet deadlines ahead of the monsoon season. In contrast, production in the Middle East plunged 19.4% YoY in May, with previous war damage from geopolitical conflicts and wartime energy controls remaining an invisible and heavy ceiling suppressing production resumptions in the region. Production regions in Europe and the US (the US up 9.2% YoY, Germany up 7.3% YoY) maintained relatively active operating rates, supported by new-type data center infrastructure and anticipatory moves to preempt regional trade barriers such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). It is reported that the Middle East recently started offering billet exports and concluded deals. Meanwhile, increased production in India, Vietnam and others also put some pressure on domestic exports. Figure 1: Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price Advantage Narrowed Significantly; Pressure on Export Orders Intensified As of July 16, 2026, HRC export quotations (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS were $510/mt, $408/mt, and $530/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export quotation (FOB) was $493/mt. Currently, China's HRC export quotations are $17/mt, $115/mt, and $37/mt lower than those countries. China's steel export price advantage narrowed significantly MoM from June. The overseas market remained in the off-season, and low-price export promotion remained the main channel for them to relieve domestic pressure. In China, prices remained relatively firm supported by costs. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets narrowed markedly, intensifying pressure on export orders. Figure 2: HRC Quotations in Major Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export Orders Remained at Low Levels in May-June; A Sudden Increase Is Difficult According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, planned HRC exports for this month totaled 1.059 million mt, up 5.2% MoM from actual exports last month. SMM's steel export order data showed that due to the ongoing overseas off-season and consecutive overseas price declines, steel export orders in May-June declined significantly MoM from the previous period. Figure 3: SMM Steel Export Order Volumes Source: SMM 5. Anti-Dumping Cases with Impact Increased in June New anti-dumping related cases in China increased in June, involving products such as steel pipes, coated sheets, cold-rolled, stainless steel, hot-rolled, and medium-thickness plates. Details of the cases and their impact volumes are shown in the table below. Table 3: New Anti-Dumping Cases in June Source: SMM Overall, against the backdrop of the overseas off-season coupled with a narrowing price advantage, the weakness in earlier export orders may gradually be reflected in export data. SMM expects that actual steel exports in July will face some downward pressure. However, as overseas prices continue to pull back and hit bottom, some new procurement demand may be released. Figure 4: Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Source Declaration: All data other than publicly available information is processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute any decision-making advice. Note: This article is original content of this official account. If you need to reprint, whitelist, or cooperate, please contact us. 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ChinaIOL data shows that in June 2026, China’s household air conditioner production totaled 17.76 million units, down 5.4% YoY; sales reached 18.195 million units, down 7.3% YoY. Of which, exports were 6.794 million units, down 7.1% YoY; domestic sales were 11.402 million units, down 7.4% YoY. According to the data, the market remains on a downward trajectory, but the overall decline is narrowing, and both domestic sales and exports are showing signs of recovery. Domestic Sales Market: Boosted by the 618 Shopping Festival, Downward Trend Narrows In the domestic sales market, the decline in household air conditioner shipments noticeably narrowed in June, mainly boosted by the 618 shopping festival, which helped destock online inventory and prompted some restocking among enterprises. However, terminal market performance during 618 still fell short of previous years. On the cost side, prices remained high and fluctuated, while end-user prices were still locked in fierce competition. Sales of mid- to high-end products have declined to some extent this year, the overall price structure of the market has been shifting downward, and enterprise profitability is facing considerable pressure. With June ending, some listed home appliance companies are about to release semi-annual reports, and driven by the pressure of financial reporting, enterprises are likely to sell more aggressively in June in an effort to give a good account to the market. Cumulative domestic sales in January–June reached 62.822 million units, down 5.6% YoY. As the data indicates, the overall domestic sales market in H1 remained under pressure, coming from persistently high costs and inventories on the one hand, and from the phasing out of state subsidies and diminishing marginal returns on the other. Consumers who have been ‘educated’ by low prices now have longer and more cautious purchasing cycles, which feeds back into the market as price involution across the industry. In such an environment, the industry is undergoing a new wave of reshuffling, and enterprises without orders or with poor profitability will be eliminated from the market. Export Market: Decline Narrowing in Sync, Localized Heatwaves Facilitate Destocking In the export market, although some regional markets have seen a partial recovery, exports still fell 7.1% YoY and 10.4% MoM. The dual decline was mainly due to some regions entering the off-season, coupled with accumulated inventory pressure, making overseas dealers less willing to restock. As high temperatures overseas gradually subside, market sales will slowly taper off, and the export scale is expected to return to around 5 million units by July. This is also part of the seasonal structural changes in household air conditioners; as the export off-season sets in, the focus will gradually shift back to the domestic sales market. Cumulative exports in January–June reached 52.703 million units, down 6.8% YoY. In H1 this year, the household air conditioner export market exhibited regional divergence and uneven recovery, with climate, inventory, economic, and policy cycle mismatches being the core influencing factors, while aftershocks of geopolitical conflicts and differing national policies further amplified market uncertainty. In addition, climate trends, inventory cycles, the pace of economic recovery, and changes in trade and energy efficiency policies in core countries vary across regions. Taking Europe as an example, the booming Western European market contrasts with the sluggish Eastern European market. Moreover, the data does not fully represent the overall market picture, and the characteristics of different markets need to be considered. The Western European market is dominated by rental housing, and coupled with local installation policy restrictions, extreme heat has boosted sales of portable air conditioners. In addition, market expectations regarding the weather are also driving growth. However, structural divergence remains pronounced. According to ChinaIOL, the inventory of split-type air conditioners in the Western European market is still saturated, and installation difficulties and environmental protection restrictions have been constraining the growth of split-type units.

[SMM Daily Review: Logan's Hawkish Stance and Escalating Geopolitical Conflicts Drive Silver Prices to Break Below Support] SMM July 17 news: Fed voter Logan sent hawkish signals, and with geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continuing to escalate, precious metals fell under pressure, with silver breaking below support. In the spot market, supply and demand were both weak, transactions remained sluggish, and premiums held steady near parity.

[SMM Cobalt-Lithium Morning Briefing: This week, prices in the new energy industry chain continued to diverge. The lithium industry chain was generally weak. The transaction center of lithium ore shifted lower alongside lithium chemical prices, and lithium carbonate fell to around 150,000 yuan/mt. Downstream firms bought the dip at low price levels, but upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling, intensifying the market tug-of-war. Lithium hydroxide transaction prices declined in tandem, and overall trading remained sluggish. In the cobalt industry chain, demand was weak. Refined cobalt, cobalt sulphate, and cobalt chloride all lacked effective transaction support, while prices of intermediate products and Co3O4 temporarily held steady. Nickel sulphate inventory continued to decline, but downstream stockpiling willingness was insufficient, and prices still faced pressure.]

[Downstream Off-Season Demand Remains Weak, Geopolitical Conflicts Support Aluminum Price Consolidation] Overall assessments indicate that the situation in the Middle East remains volatile, market concerns over interest rate hikes persist, and supply continues to recover. However, the destocking pattern is hard to reverse in the short term. Amid the tug-of-war between longs and shorts, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate and adjust in the near term. Going forward, close attention should be paid to the progress of production resumptions in the Middle East and the trend of geopolitical conflicts, LME aluminum ingot inventory changes, as well as China's downstream processing orders and aluminum semis exports data.

[SMM Zinc Morning Meeting Minutes: LME Zinc Ingot Inventory Continues to Decline, LME Zinc Edges Up]: Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,552.5/mt, then drifted higher throughout the session, dipped to a low of $3,548.5/mt early in the session, touched a high of $3,596/mt near the end, and finally closed up at $3,581/mt, up $29.5/mt, or 0.83%...