[SMM Aluminum Flash News] Joanne Hsu, Director of the University of Michigan’s consumer survey, said that the US consumer sentiment index fell 6 in March, reaching its lowest level since December 2025. Consumer confidence declined across age groups and political affiliations. Middle- and upper-income consumers and those with stock market wealth were affected by continuously rising gasoline prices and volatile financial markets following the Iran conflict, with their confidence posting particularly notable declines. Overall, the short-term economic outlook fell 14, expectations for personal finances over the next year declined 10, while the decline in long-term expectations was relatively mild.

[Multiple Bearish Factors Stall the Uptrend; China’s Tantalum Market Undergoes Short-Term Adjustment While Medium and Long-Term Support Remains Solid] Recently, the sustained upward momentum in China’s tantalum products market came to a halt, with the overall market entering a phase of temporary consolidation and adjustment. Upward momentum slowed markedly in the short term, mainly due to three core factors: the transmission of macro sentiment, changes in circulating supply, and weakening raw material costs.

According to CMOC’s official WeChat account: On March 27, CMOC released its 2025 annual results report, which showed that the company’s operating revenue reached 206.684 billion yuan, standing firmly above the 200 billion yuan mark for the second consecutive year; net profit attributable to shareholders came in at 20.339 billion yuan, up 50.30% YoY and setting a new record for the fifth consecutive year; net operating cash flow reached the second-highest level in its history at 20.843 billion yuan; and total assets exceeded 200 billion yuan for the first time, reaching 200.932 billion yuan, up 18.03% YoY. In particular, in Q4, the company recorded operating revenue of 61.198 billion yuan, net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.059 billion yuan, and copper production of nearly 200,000 mt, all setting record highs for a single quarter. In 2025, with organisational upgrading as its main focus, the company built a “specialised, internationalised, and younger” team, refined its operations, and, together with rising prices for major products and strong production and sales, pushed its performance to a new peak. Specifically— Operating quality continued to improve. Revenue from the mining segment reached 77.713 billion yuan, accounting for 38% of total operating revenue, with the “mining” share up about 7 percentage points from 2024. Among this, revenue from copper products was 55.096 billion yuan, accounting for 27% of total operating revenue and 71% of mining-segment revenue. Both “copper” share indicators increased by about 7 percentage points YoY. This was attributable to the continued debottlenecking of two world-class copper mines, TFM and KFM, based on their existing six production lines. During the reporting period, the company’s copper production reached 741,100 mt, setting another record high and consolidating its position among the world’s top 10 copper producers. Based on the midpoint of production guidance, the completion rate was 118%, while maintaining double-digit growth of 13.99% YoY. Sales were 730,200 mt, up 5.90% YoY. Together with higher prices, copper revenue increased 31.63% YoY. Production of other products also exceeded expectations: niobium production hit a record high of 10,348 mt, with a completion rate of 103%; phosphate fertiliser production was 1.2135 million mt, with a completion rate of 106%; cobalt production was 117,500 mt, with a completion rate of 107%; molybdenum production was 13,906 mt, with a completion rate of 103%; and tungsten production was 7,114 mt, with a completion rate of 102%. In addition, the company recorded physical trading volume of 4.71 million mt, with a completion rate of 111%; IXM’s gross margin under IFRS was 2.11%, a recent high. The results of “cost reduction and efficiency improvement” became even more evident. Full-year operating costs were 157.229 billion yuan, down 11.56% YoY. In 2025, mining areas worldwide focused on key words such as innovation, technological transformation, and process optimisation, putting the concept of “refined operations” into practice. In Q4, TFM’s overall copper beneficiation and smelting recovery rate, equipment operating rate, and raw ore throughput all exceeded the calendar schedule; KFM established an ore characteristics database and ore blending model, lifting grinding efficiency by more than 30% YoY; at CMOC Brazil’s niobium segment, the recovery rates of two beneficiation plants rose by about 2 percentage points from the previous year, setting record highs; in China, recovery rates at Shangfanggou molybdenum and Sandaozhuang molybdenum and tungsten increased by 3.24 and 2.65, and 3.17 percentage points YoY, respectively, also reaching record highs. Centered on “multiple products, multiple countries, and multiple stages,” the company built a “copper + gold” dual-pole structure in 2025, adding gold resources last year. Together with the greenfield gold mine in Ecuador and four operating gold mines in Brazil, the company will have gold production capacity of 20 mt in South America by 2029. The Ecuador gold mine is expected to start production in 2029, with land acquisition and power supply assurance advancing rapidly; the Brazil gold mines achieved output above target in the first two months, and are expected to produce 6-8 mt of gold this year. Targeting copper production of 800,000-1 million mt in 2028, the company is building Phase II of the KFM project, which is expected to add annual copper capacity of 100,000 mt after coming into operation in 2027; TFM identified resource potential in relevant deposits, and preliminary preparations for Phase III construction are accelerating. In addition, the company completed the issuance of a $1.2 billion one-year zero-coupon convertible bond, broadening financing channels to support the implementation of its strategy. Alongside earnings growth, the company consistently practiced high-standard ESG principles. During the reporting period, ESG governance was further improved and digitalisation advanced; environmental performance led globally: the carbon emission intensity of its copper products was lower than that of 70% of mining companies worldwide, while the shares of renewable energy and water recycling increased further from 2024 to 38% and 89%, respectively; total global economic contribution reached 182.42 billion yuan, and global community investment was 488 million yuan. 2026 is a critical year for the company to fully implement its new development strategy and deepen platform-based operations and refined management. The company will further build a platform-based organisation: with the global supply chain centre as the pioneer, it will enhance synergies and cost competitiveness; relying on the “622” model, supplemented by multinational mine management experience and standardised business processes, it will improve its global control system. Centered on the “copper-gold dual poles,” the company will further transform its resource advantages into capacity and production advantages, while continuing to seek high-quality targets. With the goal of becoming a “globally leading, distinctive world-class mining company,” the company will continue to forge ahead in the mining industry.

This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China rebounded 1.1 percentage points MoM to 64%.

This week, ferrous metals retreated after a rapid rise. At the beginning of the week, the market said that Asia had shifted to coal-fired power generation due to a natural gas supply deficit, while Indonesia would increase coal production and impose export taxes. The rise in international coal prices was transmitted to China, and coking coal and coke led the gains in ferrous metals; mid-week, the Middle East situation remained volatile, and the U.S. and Iran held differing attitudes toward war, with ferrous metals consolidating at high levels; the pullback in the second half of the week was also mainly due to the weakening of the cost-side logic, as market rumors said long-term iron ore contract negotiations had been completed, expectations for tightening iron ore supply declined, and raw materials turned into the main driver of the pullback. In the spot market, speculative trading and end-user purchase sentiment improved in the first half of the week, while rigid demand remained dominant in the second half, and the spot-futures price spread widened somewhat......

This week, the tungsten market showed a divergent trend with mild corrections in domestic prices and a contrarian rise in overseas APT prices. Domestic tungsten concentrate and midstream product prices remained relatively firm, while scrap tungsten prices dropped sharply as profit-taking emerged. Supported by a tight supply-demand balance, overseas markets strengthened, further widening the price gap between domestic and international markets.

According to an announcement by the Shanghai International Energy Exchange, with the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, effective April 22, 2026 (from the night continuous trading session on April 21), the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (hereinafter referred to as INE) will further expand the range of tradable products available to Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors and RMB Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (collectively, Qualified Foreign Investors), with the newly added commodity options contracts open for trading as follows: TSR 20 rubber and international copper options contracts.

Concluding our series, we shift focus to 2026's emerging NdFeB growth drivers: robotics, low-altitude economy, and electric two-wheelers. While viewed as the "second growth curve," we analyze their actual demand support amidst current macro and industry cycles to determine if they can offset traditional sector slowdowns.

SMM News, March 27: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,390 yuan/mt during the day. Boosted by broad-based gains across nonferrous metals, the price continued to fluctuate upward, hitting a high of 16,570 yuan/mt before pulling back somewhat. It then consolidated narrowly in the 16,520-16,555 yuan/mt range and finally closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 95 yuan/mt, or 0.58%. On the supply side, deliverable primary lead inventory for primary lead fell MoM, and reduced circulating cargo supported premiums in quotations; secondary lead smelters mostly held strong wait-and-see sentiment, with few spot quotes, while limited cargo was quoted at slight premiums. On the demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment was mixed, with both wait-and-see sentiment and purchasing as needed, and transactions were average. As the resumption of production at secondary lead smelters accelerates, expectations for increased spot secondary lead supply are strong, but downstream purchases for rigid demand remain limited, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Data source disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

Next week, due to the Qingming Festival in the Chinese market, SHFE will not conduct night session trading on the evening of April 3; outside China, due to Good Friday, exchanges including the LME will be closed for one day on April 3. In terms of macroeconomic data, key releases are expected to include China’s official manufacturing PMI for March, US ADP employment for March, US retail sales MoM for February, and US ISM manufacturing PMI for March. LME lead, current geopolitical tensions outside China remained prominent, shipping cycles lengthened, and crude oil prices rose, all of which had a significant impact on the base metal market. For lead, consumption in the Middle East was relatively stagnant, supply chains were disrupted, and transportation cycles for lead ingot and lead-acid batteries lengthened. Meanwhile, China’s lead ingot import arbitrage remained favorable, and overseas lead ingot continued to flow into the Chinese market. This week, LME lead ingot inventory fell by nearly 1 kt, and the LME Cash-3M contango narrowed to -$34.62/mt, providing support for lead prices. LME lead is expected to trade at $1,880-1,930/mt next week. SHFE lead, lead ingot inventory was destocked, including inventories at lead smelters and social warehouses, and lead prices showed signs of stabilizing after the decline. However, the lead ingot import window is currently open, while lead-acid batteries will enter the traditional off-season in April, limiting expectations for lead consumption. In addition, some secondary lead smelters recently resumed production and raised output, while new maintenance plans are also scheduled for April. With bullish and bearish factors coexisting in fundamentals, lead prices are expected to continue to fluctuate rangebound. If lead smelter maintenance is implemented as planned, lead prices may have a chance to rise relatively. The most-traded SHFE lead contract is expected to trade at 16,300-16,700 yuan/mt next week. Spot price forecast: 16,250-16,550 yuan/mt. With the traditional off-season for lead-acid batteries approaching in April, downstream enterprises mostly maintained purchasing as needed, with limited procurement enthusiasm. Supply side, both primary lead and secondary lead enterprises saw output increases, and imported lead continued to flow into China, so spot lead premium trading may be difficult to sustain for long.