[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Macro Sentiment Improved, LME Zinc Rose] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,340.5/mt. At the beginning of the session, LME zinc briefly dipped to a low of $3,336.5/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased their open interest, and LME zinc fluctuated upward throughout the session, reaching a high of $3,414/mt during the night session, ultimately closing up at $3,400/mt, up $60/mt, a gain of 1.8%. Trading volume increased to 12,425 lots, and open interest rose by 1,955 lots to 217,000 lots.

Platinum prices held up well today. The most-traded GFEX platinum contract PT2606 closed the morning session at 534.8 yuan/gram, up 1.71%, with the intraday high breaking through 3% to reach 544.65 yuan/gram. Spot side, mainstream quotations from spot platinum traders in the morning session were at a discount of 5-7 yuan/gram against the PT2606 contract, with the spot mainstream quotation discount widening compared to the previous trading day. Spot transactions side, according to SMM, most traders holding inventory continued to hold prices firm due to cost considerations and delivery intentions, with basically no transactions concluded at the discount of 5-7 yuan/gram. When futures prices hit intraday highs in the morning session, the absolute spot prices from upstream, when converted, showed a discount of over 10 yuan/gram against the GFEX 06 contract. The consumption side showed low acceptance of mainstream market quotations, with the price spread between bids and offers remaining wide. Downstream consumption was generally poor, with a wait-and-see stance prevailing. Some enterprises made small purchases through negotiation to meet rigid demand, and overall spot market transactions remained sluggish.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Silicon metal: At the beginning of the week, futures prices saw wider fluctuations driven by market news. As the news was debunked, futures prices weakened again. Yesterday, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 8,900-9,100 yuan/mt, and #441 silicon was at 9,100-9,300 yuan/mt. Yesterday, the most-traded SI futures contract closed at 8,320 yuan/mt, down 95 yuan/mt from the previous day but up 70 yuan/mt from Monday. Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 34-36.5 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to edge down slightly this week, but the decline narrowed. On one hand, prices were already approaching the cost lines of most producers; on the other hand, some market "rumors" circulating earlier, combined with unusual movements in futures, gave polysilicon producers more options.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: US Dollar Weakened, LME Zinc Edged Up] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,325.5/mt. Early in the session, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,365.5/mt during European trading hours. Subsequently, bears increased open interest, and the LME zinc center shifted downward, hitting a low of $3,314.5/mt during the night session. Bears then reduced open interest, lifting the center, and LME zinc ultimately closed higher at $3,340/mt, up $17/mt, a gain of 0.51%. Trading volume rose to 10,950 lots, and open interest fell by 2,418 lots to 215,000 lots.

SMM April 14 update: During the morning session, SHFE aluminum 2604 fluctuated downward, with the price center rising significantly from the previous day. Influenced by higher aluminum prices, overall willingness to sell in the market was high, while buying sentiment was suppressed by elevated prices. Circulating supply in the market was relatively sufficient. Market transactions declined after the opening, with mainstream transactions concentrated around SMM A00 aluminum at -20 yuan/mt to -10 yuan/mt. East China market shipment sentiment index was 3.58 today, up 0.17 MoM; the procurement sentiment index was 2.94, down 0.07 MoM. Affected by the ongoing escalation of the US-Iran conflict, aluminum futures prices surged sharply from last night's session through today, and overall buying sentiment in the central China market was low. With aluminum prices at elevated levels, downstream processing enterprises mostly adopted a wait-and-see approach, with small factories suspending purchases and only a few large factories maintaining normal procurement, while suppliers showed a strong willingness to sell at high prices. Ultimately, actual transactions in the central China market were poor today, with prices mainly ranging from parity to a discount of 50 yuan against the central China price. The central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.81 today, up 0.04 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.36, down 0.04 MoM. Inventory side, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption regions increased by 500 mt MoM today, with the inventory buildup mainly driven by Guangdong and Wuxi.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Positive Nickel Ore Policy Boosts Stainless Steel Futures Prices, but Cautious Downstream Keeps Transactions Weak with Stable Spot Prices SMM, April 14 — SS futures continued their strong upward trend. Influenced by yesterday's news of Indonesia's nickel ore HPM formula adjustment, both SHFE nickel and SS futures rose. As of the morning session close, the most-traded SS contract was quoted at 14,600 yuan/mt. Spot market side, driven by the consecutive rise in SS futures and the adjustment of Indonesia's nickel ore HPM formula, market expectations were that nickel pig iron smelting costs would increase, strengthening confidence in cost support for stainless steel. However, downstream acceptance of high prices remained limited, and spot quotes had not yet followed the upward move, with overall transactions remaining stable. The most-traded SS futures contract strengthened. At 10:15 AM, SS2605 was quoted at 14,590 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in the Wuxi area ranged from 30-230 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi held steady; for cold-rolled untrimmed 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi held steady, and the average price in Foshan held steady; cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in the Wuxi area held...

[SHFE and LME Aluminum Indicators Strengthen Across the Board, Geopolitical Risks Dominate Short-Term Market] Overall, from a macro perspective, risks of strait transit restrictions and conflict escalation resonated with fundamental supply-side hard damage and low global inventory, jointly providing strong bottom support for aluminum prices. However, weak interest rate cut expectations, China's aluminum ingot inventory buildup exceeding expectations, and adverse expectations on consumption and inflation from recent high fluctuations in oil prices all notably dragged on the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Closed Higher in Overnight Session, Spot Cargo Remained Stable] The aluminum alloy 2606 contract opened at 23,760 yuan/mt during the night session. After the opening, futures prices rose steadily, with prices running above the average price line throughout the session, showing a solid trend structure. Futures saw a slight increase in open interest simultaneously, with open interest edging higher. Volume and momentum were well-coordinated during the rise, and the price center continued to shift upward. Prices during the night session ranged from 23,695 to 23,920 yuan/mt. Prices moved sideways at highs near the close with no notable pullback, and the daily candlestick ultimately closed at 23,890 yuan/mt, up 0.84% for the day.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: U.S.-Iran Tensions Fluctuate, LME Zinc Center Shifts Downward] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,310/mt. In the early session, LME zinc fluctuated upward and touched a high of $3,343.5/mt during European trading hours. Subsequently, bears increased their open interest, and the LME zinc center shifted downward, hitting a low of $3,295/mt during the night session. The center then lifted, and LME zinc ultimately closed lower at $3,323/mt, down $12/mt, a decline of 0.36%. Trading volume rose to 9,399 lots, and open interest increased by 4,520 lots to 217,000 lots.

According to an SMM survey, steel semi-finished product export orders have recently surged, with slab export orders seeing particularly significant growth. SMM believes two major factors contributed to this round of growth: "Demand" Provides the Necessary Condition for the Surge in Semi-Finished Product Export Orders On one hand, benefiting from the spillover effect of export demand caused by the US-Iran conflict, infrastructure and manufacturing in Southeast Asia have grown rapidly. However, the region only has rolling capacity and lacks steelmaking capacity, necessitating large imports of steel billet. According to data compiled by SMM, Southeast Asia imported approximately 2.31 million mt of steel from the Middle East in 2025, of which a staggering 97% was semi-finished steel billet. Therefore, when passage through the Strait of Hormuz was restricted, the Southeast Asian market was instantly exposed to a rigid shortfall of over 2 million mt. For detailed analysis, please refer to the article "Sudden Shift in Middle East Situation Triggers 'Mismatch,' China Accelerates to Fill Approximately 2.3 Million mt Supply Vacuum in Southeast Asia." The existence of this gap provides an excellent window for China's semi-finished product exports. "Price Advantage" Provides the Sufficient Condition for the Surge in Semi-Finished Product Export Orders On the other hand, price increases outside China far exceeded those in China. During this period, the FOB price of Dexin slabs in Indonesia rose from $470/mt to $540/mt, an increase of 14.89%, while the FOB price of slabs in China rose from $455/mt to $480/mt, an increase of only 5.49%. The huge price difference made buyers outside China particularly favour semi-finished products from China. SMM surveyed some recent slab transaction details from domestic sellers, as shown in the table below. Survey Records: Enterprise A: At the current price, they are willing to take slab orders, but orders have already been booked through August, with an estimated volume of 80,000 mt per month. Enterprise B: They started taking slab orders from April. They take orders when the price is right. The current price is only 20-30 yuan/mt lower than HRC. Enterprise C: They can only accept exporting slabs at HRC prices now. If overseas buyers don't want them, then forget it. Enterprise D: They haven't been in contact with new slab orders recently. Their last order was in March. However, if there is subsequent demand, they may have new resources available for export by June. Enterprise E: Their orders were all taken earlier. Previously, they were selling at over 100 yuan below HRC, but now the quoted price is only a few dozen yuan below HRC. However, transactions have clearly slowed down. The current ex-factory price is approximately 3,120. The surge in demand has driven prices higher. As shown in the chart below, normally the price spread between slabs and HRC stays around $20-30, which aligns with normal rolling costs. However, since April, this spread has narrowed to around $10, and has recently further narrowed to single digits. This is mainly because as steel mills' shipping schedules have gradually been pushed back, their willingness to hold prices firm has also strengthened. Some steel mills are even exporting slabs at prices equivalent to domestic HRC trade prices, which provides them with significant export motivation. Chart 1 - SMM China HRC & Slab Export FOB Price Trend SMM Expects Slab Exports to Rise Significantly, April-August In January-February this year, total steel billet exports were 1.7746 million mt, of which slabs accounted for 232,600 mt, square billets for 1.5196 million mt, and slabs made up 13.11%. Chart 2 - China Steel Billet Exports by Product, January-February 2026 Based on the survey, the increase in slab export orders was more of a March-April phenomenon. Considering the time interval from order placement to shipping schedule, SMM expects slab exports to show a relatively significant upward trend from April to August. Surge in Slab Orders May Improve HRC Fundamentals In April, the daily average production schedule for commercial HR products at 39 mills was 448,300 mt, up 8.5% MoM from actual daily average production. The daily average production schedule for commercial HR products at 54 steel mills was 581,100 mt, up 9.2% MoM from actual daily average production. HR supply pressure increased MoM, but the peak season performance of China's manufacturing sector during the "Golden March, Silver April" period was overall satisfactory. According to SMM data, as of April 9, total HRC inventory was 6.6556 million mt, down 111,100 mt WoW. Destocking is expected to maintain a healthy pace going forward. However, when the spot-futures price spread was at suitable levels before the Chinese New Year, traders engaged in futures-spot arbitrage were particularly active in North China and other regions, accelerating social inventory accumulation. Current social inventory is up 34.93% YoY. If steel mills' semi-finished product export orders perform well, this could create opportunities for subsequent reductions in commercial product supply, while also providing support for current prices.