Copper prices advanced towards a record closing high as tightening physical supply continued to support the market alongside resilient long-term demand. The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper contract strengthened as sustained inflows of metal into the United States and increased buying activity from China reduced the availability of copper in other regions. Large volumes of refined copper have been shipped into the U.S. this year as traders positioned ahead of a potential decision on refined copper import tariffs. At the same time, stronger purchasing activity from China has intensified competition for available material, further tightening the physical market. These developments have contributed to copper gaining approximately 14% since the beginning of 2026, building on three consecutive years of annual gains. Beyond near-term supply tightness, the market continues to be supported by long-term demand from power infrastructure, renewable energy, electric vehicles and artificial intelligence-related data centres. However, declining ore grades at existing operations and the increasing cost and complexity of developing new mines continue to constrain future supply growth. The latest price gains highlight a market increasingly influenced by physical supply constraints rather than demand alone. With inventories remaining tight and new mine supply struggling to keep pace with long-term consumption growth, sustained price strength could continue to support investment in mine expansions, brownfield redevelopment and domestic copper processing capacity.

【Shanghai Refined Zinc Spot Market】Some holders maintained firm pricing sentiment during the week, with spot premiums edging higher in the first half of the week. However, as SHFE zinc futures continued to rise, downstream purchasing interest weakened significantly due to the seasonal demand slowdown and elevated zinc prices. Market transactions were mainly driven by restocking for immediate needs, while overall trading activity gradually softened.

【Ningbo Refined Zinc Spot Market】As SHFE zinc futures rapidly climbed to around RMB 26,000/mt, downstream buyers became increasingly cautious about purchasing at elevated prices, resulting in gradually weakening spot transactions. To stimulate sales, some holders slightly lowered spot premiums, leading to a pullback in spot premiums.

On August 7, data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China exported 10.211 million mt of steel products in July 2026, down 199,000 mt MoM, or 1.9% MoM; cumulative exports from January to July reached 64.995 million mt, down 4.4% YoY. In July 2026, China imported 445,000 mt of steel products, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Table 1: Steel Imports and Exports Data Summary, January-July Source: SMM • China's steel exports stayed elevated with fluctuations in July According to SMM's July export schedule survey, the planned HRC export volume for the month was 1.059 million mt, slightly higher than actual exports in June. SMM export order data showed that export orders for steel products declined from a high level in May. At that time, port inspections on MD and other activities were relatively strict, which slowed down the pace of some export orders. However, orders at steel mills improved slightly. Coupled with the fact that cargoes delayed due to earlier inspections were gradually shipped out in July, overall steel exports in July still delivered a relatively decent performance. Table 2: China's Total Steel Exports Source: SMM • July steel imports remained low On the import side, steel imports in July were 445,000 mt, up 4,000 mt MoM, or 0.8% MoM; cumulative imports from January to July were 3.14 million mt, down 10.1% YoY. Net exports of steel reached 61.855 million mt. Short-term Steel Export Outlook 1. Global manufacturing slid further MoM; overseas demand remained in off-season mode According to J.P. Morgan's global PMI data, the Global Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 came in at 52.1. Although it remained in expansion territory, the pace of expansion slowed for the third consecutive month. The preemptive steel stockpiling demand earlier triggered by geopolitical disruptions in Middle Eastern shipping has been fully cleared. Combined with persistently weak demand for consumer goods, property, and infrastructure among end-users in Europe and the US, global commodity and physical steel orders collectively fell into contraction territory. Alongside this, ASEAN manufacturing PMI also declined again. China's Manufacturing New Export Orders Index for July was 49.6%, down 0.5 percentage points MoM, slipping back into contraction territory. 2. Overseas steel mills have proactively controlled production; supply contraction lacks sustainability In June 2026, global crude steel production fell 0.3% YoY to 157.9 million mt. In China, as the southern rainy season and high-temperature off-season deepened, downstream steel product construction was significantly hampered. Under heavy pressure from persistently inverted profit margins, steel mills' monthly output edged down 0.8% MoM. Excluding China, production in the rest of the world declined 2.0% MoM, with performance diverging in Asia's core regions. India and Vietnam both saw flat MoM output in June; the former was supported by robust domestic infrastructure resilience, while the latter benefited from earlier concentrated stockpiling and steady operation following new capacity ramp-up. In contrast, Japan and South Korea were dragged by slowing production schedules in downstream automotive and manufacturing sectors, showing a seasonal slight correction. Notably, the Middle East and CIS regions, which had plunged deeply in May, saw marginal recovery. Meanwhile, Europe and the US collectively entered a seasonal weakening trajectory. EU production in June dropped significantly by 5.3% MoM, with Germany tumbling 9.4%; North America declined 5.9% MoM and the US also fell 4.0%. The main reasons for the pullback in Europe and the US were, on one hand, the industry's entry into the routine summer maintenance period, and on the other, the high summer electricity prices and steel scrap prices squeezing electric furnace margins, significantly dampening mills' willingness to operate. The decline in overseas production theoretically offers structural opportunities for China's exports. However, the drops in end markets like Europe and the US were more due to proactive production cuts driven by falling demand. Coupled with India and Vietnam still maintaining high output, China's exports continue to face pressure. Figure 1: Global Crude Steel Production by Region Source: SMM 3. Price advantage continued to narrow; export order-taking pressure persisted As of July 31, 2026, the HRC export offers (FOB) for India, Turkey, and the CIS stood at $515/mt, $575/mt, and $515/mt, respectively, while China's HRC export offer (FOB) was $486/mt. China's HRC offers were -$29/mt, -$89/mt, and -$29/mt lower than those other countries, respectively. China's steel export price advantage further narrowed MoM from June. Overseas markets remained in the off-season, and low-price promotions remained the main channel for those countries to ease domestic pressures. In contrast, domestic sales pressure was not evident, and prices remained relatively firm. The price spread between Chinese and overseas markets continued to narrow, and pressure on export order-taking persisted. Figure 2: HRC Offers in Major Global Markets Source: SMM 4. Export orders rebounded from a bottom in June-July; order-taking improved slightly According to SMM's latest steel mill export order schedule, the planned HRC export volume this month was 1.023 million mt, down 2.8% MoM from the actual level last month. SMM steel export order data showed that although overseas markets remained in the off-season, recent restrictions on resource exports from the Middle East (especially Iran) created a notable supply gap in semi-finished products in overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia. This shortfall was quickly filled by Chinese resources. On the other hand, traders took profits from spot-futures price spread operations in late July, offering lower actual prices to facilitate transactions, which led to a bottoming rebound in export order data in July. In reality, overseas demand had not yet emerged from the off-season, and a steady recovery in export order-taking still faces pressure. Figure 3: SMM Steel Export Order Volume Source: SMM 5. Anti-dumping cases related to steel increased in July In July, the number of new anti-dumping cases related to steel initiated against China increased, covering products such as steel pipes, coated steel, sections, coiled rebar, wire rod, and hot-rolled coils. Details of specific cases and affected volumes are shown in the table below: Table 3: New Anti-Dumping Cases in July Source: SMM Taking all factors into account, lower actual transaction prices stimulated some volume growth, with semi-finished products accounting for a larger share. Given that July export numbers have already been significantly elevated, SMM expects that total steel exports in August will not sustain a strong unilateral upward trend. Instead, they will move sideways in a high range, while semi-finished product exports will remain relatively high. Figure 4: Steel Exports and Forecast, 2024-2026 Source: SMM Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice. Note: This article is an original work of this official account. For requests related to reprinting, whitelisting, cooperation, etc., please contact us. Without permission, no part may be reproduced, modified, used, sold, transferred, displayed, translated, compiled, disseminated, or otherwise disclosed to any third party, nor may any third party be authorized to use it. Otherwise, once discovered, SMM will pursue legal action for infringement, including but not limited to holding the infringing party liable for breach of contract, restitution of unjust enrichment, and compensation for direct and indirect economic losses. 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On August 7 China's steel export prices were mostly steady with flat products extending gains. Some flat-product export prices rose 1 USD/tonne day on day, with HRC transactions at 482-485 USD/tonne; Chinese futures rose for successive sessions in the second half of the week and export FOB prices followed, but traders reported limited actual business after the increase, while at the mill end some traders were buying against earlier orders. Billet export FOB prices were steady, with Jiangyin port offers at 450-455 USD/tonne; offers are largely referenced to the rebar futures basis, overseas enquiries are limited and competition is fierce, with only some exporters covering earlier short billet positions. Rebar export offers at Tianjin port were steady with transactions at 474-480 USD/tonne, as overseas enquiries were unremarkable, wait-and-see sentiment prevailed and domestic traders found exporting difficult.

Today, the DCE iron ore futures moved steadily today. The most-traded DCE I2609 contract closed at 716.5 yuan/mt, up 0.35% from the previous session. Spot prices at Qingdao Port averaged a decline of about 0–2 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM Weekly Stainless Steel Futures Review — week of July 27 – July 31, 2026. Conflicting RKAB supplementary quota signals and a hawkish Fed swing the benchmark contract to a RMB 30/mt gain in the week of August 3–7.

As of this Friday, SiMn 6517 (cash) in north China stood at 5,600-5,650 yuan/mt, down WoW; SiMn 6517 (cash) in south China stood at 5,700-5,750 yuan/mt, flat WoW; SiMn 6014 (cash) in south China stood at 5,350-5,450 yuan/mt, up WoW. Recently, SiMn futures moved sideways weakly, market sentiment was deeply pessimistic, spot prices fell, and futures and spot prices largely moved in tandem.

Non-Oriented Silicon Steel Price Dynamics Shanghai B50A800 grade: 4,350-4,350 yuan/mt Guangzhou B50A800 grade: 4,150-4,150 yuan/mt Wuhan 50WW800 grade: 4,200-4,200 yuan/mt Shanghai market: This week, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Shanghai market were in the doldrums, with most grades falling by 30-100 yuan/mt and overall transaction performance was poor. Market feedback indicated that ferrous metals futures were weak at first then strengthened later, leading to heavy wait-and-see sentiment. Currently still in the off-season, downstream motor enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, traders were cautious in ordering and maintained low inventory strategies, and overall market inventory remained at low levels. Overall, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Shanghai market are expected to be in the doldrums next week. Guangzhou market: This week, the cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel market in Guangzhou was in the doldrums, with most grades falling by 30-50 yuan/mt and transactions being sluggish. Market feedback indicated that HRC futures were first down then up, slightly restoring market confidence, but the industry is currently in the traditional consumption off-season. Downstream end-users such as motor and appliance enterprises maintained low operating rates, and their procurement sentiment was cautious and conservative, continuing to purchase as needed, with overall stockpiling willingness remaining low. Overall, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in the Guangzhou market are expected to be in the doldrums next week. Wuhan market: This week, cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel prices in Wuhan were in the doldrums, with most grades falling by 50-80 yuan/mt and transaction performance was poor. Market feedback indicated that the current market resource circulation was limited, and cost support remained, leading to some recovery in market expectations, but traders were cautious about future market trends and continued to control inventory levels. Overall, spot prices of cold-rolled non-oriented silicon steel in Wuhan are expected to be in the doldrums next week. Data Source Statement: (All data in this report, except for public information, are based on public information (including but not limited to industry news, seminars, exhibitions, corporate financial reports, broker reports, National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, customs import and export data, and various data released by major associations and institutions), market communication, and rely on SMM's internal database models, and are comprehensively analyzed and reasonably inferred by the research team. They are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. SMM reserves the right of final interpretation of this statement and the right to adjust and modify the statement content according to actual circumstances.

SMM August 7 News: Today, futures continued to surge, and spot cargo in South China showed strong resilience. Arrivals have already shown tightness, and the destocking trend is stable, continuing to support large-scale holders to be bullish on the outlook, hold prices firm and hold back from selling, and even some actively try to raise prices. Even without purchase response, they firmly refuse to adjust prices. Mainstream quotations were at a premium of 0 to +10 yuan/mt, with tight circulation in some areas. Demand side, downstream was temporarily unable to accept the price surge, and only made the minimum just-in-time procurement. However, with limited circulation, traders actively entering the market to purchase at non-premium prices have been sufficient to absorb the supply. The supply-demand pattern was tight, and overall transactions were stable with a positive bias. Spot transaction prices were concentrated at premiums of 65 yuan/mt to 105 yuan/mt over the SHFE aluminum 2608 contract.