Guinea-China bauxite freigh rates have rebounded recently amid renewed volatility in the Middle East and continued tightness in the dry bulk shipping market. As at least 70% of Guinea’s bauxite shipments are destined for China, sustained high freight rates on the Guinea-China route have not only lifted delivered logistics costs but also constrained shipments through weaker margins and limited vessel availability. Freight rose much faster than CIF prices, briefly accounting for over half of delivered prices SMM data showed that Guinea-China bauxite freight rates rose from $23.50/wmt on February 27 to $36.75/wmt on May 29, an increase of 56.4%. Freight remained at the same elevated level in the week ending June 5. Over the same period, the weekly average SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price rose from $60.00/wmt to $68.00/wmt, an increase of only 13.3%, significantly lagging the rise in freight. As a result, freight as a share of the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price increased from 39.17% to 54.04%, meaning that ocean freight at one point represented more than half of the assessed delivered price. With CIF prices unable to fully absorb the additional shipping costs, pressure on miners’ and traders’ operating margins continued to build. According to SMM market contacts, the vast majority of surveyed Guinean mines reduced shipments to varying degrees after freight rates remained elevated, while some mines temporarily suspended loadings. High freight costs have therefore become a major direct factor behind the recent slowdown in Guinea’s bauxite shipments. In addition to prices, tight vessel availability has also restricted physical shipments. Traders and miners have widely reported difficulties securing spot bulk carriers, particularly for prompt cargoes. Some shipments have been delayed even where participants were prepared to accept prevailing freight levels, as vessels could not be secured in time and loading schedules had to be postponed. Peak season and contractual obligations initially supported March-April shipments Despite the sharp rise in Guinea-China freight rates from March, Guinea’s bauxite shipments remained relatively high during March and April. March-April is traditionally a peak shipment period in Guinea, when mining, inland transport and port-loading conditions are relatively favourable. In addition, previously signed long-term contracts and vessels booked in advance still had to be fulfilled. At the beginning of the freight rally, many market participants also expected the increase to be temporary. Miners therefore did not immediately make broad adjustments to existing shipment plans. SMM data showed that average weekly bauxite shipments from Guinea stood at 4.98 million mt between March 6 and April 24. Shipments remained high even after freight exceeded $30/wmt, reaching a weekly peak of 6.15 million mt in the week ending April 3. However, as elevated freight rates persisted into late April and May, the support from existing contracts, previously arranged vessels and the seasonal shipment peak gradually weakened. The impact of shipping costs became increasingly visible in outbound volumes. Average weekly shipments fell to 4.00 million mt between May 1 and June 26, down 19.8% from the March 6-April 24 average. Monthly data showed a similar trend. Guinea shipped 17.50 million mt in May, down 18.5% month on month, before shipments declined by another 10.0% to 15.74 million mt in June. The timing of the decline broadly coincided with the prolonged period of high freight rates and increasingly tight spot vessel availability reported by market participants since late April. Freight pressure eased briefly in late June before returning in July Shipping-market pressure eased temporarily in the second half of June as more positive expectations emerged around Middle East negotiations. Guinea-China bauxite freight rates fell from $36.75/wmt on June 5 to $31.00/wmt on July 3, while freight as a share of the SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price declined from 54.04% to 43.66%. However, shipments did not recover immediately. Restarting cargo programmes, securing vessels and reorganising loading schedules all require time. Guinea was also moving deeper into its rainy season, further limiting the speed of any recovery. The rainy season generally runs from May to November, with the impact becoming more pronounced in July and August. SMM market feedback suggests that rainfall may reduce shipments by around 20% during the most disruptive period by affecting mine-to-port transportation, barge operations and loading efficiency. Entering July, renewed escalation in the Middle East pushed Guinea-China freight rates higher again. Freight rose from $31.00/wmt on July 3 to $35.00/wmt on July 24, an increase of 12.9%. Over the same period, the weekly average SMM Guinea bauxite CIF China price edged down from $71.00/wmt to $70.50/wmt, lifting the freight share back to 49.65%. According to SMM market contacts, as freight rates rebounded and spot bulk carriers remained difficult to secure, some mines that had previously planned to resume shipments again reduced or suspended loadings. Weekly shipments declined from 3.41 million mt in the week ending July 3 to 3.07 million mt in the week ending July 24, a decrease of 9.9%. Shipments fell as low as 2.83 million mt in the week ending July 17. As of July 24, Guinea’s cumulative July shipments stood at 10.55 million mt, equivalent to an average of 439,500 mt per day, down 16.2% from June’s daily average. SMM outlook SMM believes that the recent pressure on Guinea’s bauxite shipments cannot be attributed solely to seasonal rainfall. Persistently high freight rates and tight spot vessel availability have become the main direct constraints on shipments, while the rainy season has amplified the disruption. High freight rates continue to compress the operating room available to miners and traders, while scarce vessel availability is preventing some cargoes from progressing from planned sales to actual loading. The traditional shipment peak, contractual obligations and previously arranged vessels delayed the transmission of higher freight costs into shipment volumes during March and April. However, as elevated freight rates persisted, the vast majority of surveyed miners gradually reduced shipments, while some temporarily halted loadings, with the impact becoming increasingly apparent from May. In the near term, developments in the Middle East, fuel costs and dry bulk vessel availability in the West African market will remain key factors influencing Guinea-China freight rates. Should freight rates remain near $35/wmt or rise further, while tight spot bulk carrier availability shows no meaningful improvement, Guinean miners’ willingness to ship and their actual loading capacity may remain constrained. Combined with the impact of the July-August rainy season on mine-to-port transportation, barge operations and port-loading efficiency, Guinea’s weekly bauxite shipments are expected to remain volatile at relatively low levels, with marginal mines and spot cargoes facing greater pressure. Looking ahead to the third quarter of 2026, under SMM’s base-case scenario of persistently high freight rates, tight vessel availability and continued rainy-season disruption, Guinea’s bauxite shipments are expected to remain subdued and fluctuate at low levels. Average daily shipments may mainly range between 370,000 mt and 400,000 mt, corresponding to monthly shipments of approximately 11.5 million-12.0 million mt, broadly in line with the monthly average recorded in the third quarter of 2025. Shipments could stage a temporary recovery should Middle East tensions ease, freight rates decline significantly and bulk vessel availability improve. Meanwhile, developments concerning Guinea’s bauxite export quota policy remain a key uncertainty for the supply outlook. Any substantive implementation of related measures could further alter the pace of shipments and expectations for the country’s total bauxite exports.

[Black Sea] Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea and Azov Sea have triggered severe maritime shipping paralysis. Following the cancellation of war risk coverage by the Russian National Reinsurance Company and a series of attacks leaving several merchant vessels sunk or damaged, shipowners are avoiding port calls or declaring force majeure. Consequently, steel billet freight rates on the Russia-Turkey route have surged to 25–35 USD/tonne, with insurance premiums skyrocketing to 10–15 USD/tonne. As shipping disruptions pose a grave threat to Turkey's import supply chain, buyers have been forced to pivot toward domestic sourcing; after Karabük raised its billet offers by 10 USD/tonne to 525–530 USD/tonne EXW, transaction volumes reached approximately 100,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, with Ukrainian iron ore shipments blocked and Russian coal diversions constrained, regional exports of steelmaking raw materials and semi-finished products have plunged into deep paralysis.

SMM News on July 30: Domestic Bauxite: Supply Disruptions Drive Up Domestic Ore Prices; Alumina Refineries' Long-Term Contract Procurement Prices Rise Overall Affected by coking coal-related incidents in Shanxi, mining activities in major domestic bauxite producing areas like Shanxi and Henan have been somewhat disrupted in the short term, leading to phased changes in ore supply. Meanwhile, alumina prices remain at relatively high levels, and alumina refineries have a moderate tolerance for rising raw material costs, mostly accepting current ore prices passively in the near term. As of today, the EXW price, excluding VAT, at crushing plants for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and 60% alumina content in Shanxi is approximately 530-550 yuan/mt; in Henan, the EXW price for similar bauxite is around 500-540 yuan/mt; in the Guiyang area, the EXW price, including VAT, for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 60% alumina content is 490-540 yuan/mt; and in Guangxi, the EXW price, excluding VAT, for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and 53% alumina content is 320-335 yuan/mt. Imported Bauxite: Ocean Freight Rates Fluctuate at Highs; August Long-Term Contract Prices Yet to Be Settled; Imported Bauxite Market Remains in a State of Continued Negotiation According to data from July 24, total weekly port departures of bauxite from major ports in Guinea were 3.0697 million mt, up 237,700 mt from the previous week, with shipments edging up slightly. As US-Iran tensions intensify again, oil prices have rebounded, and ocean freight rates from Guinea to China have followed suit with a rising trend, with market quotations reaching around $35/mt, driving up mine costs to varying degrees. Coupled with policy uncertainties in Guinea and weather-related transport disruptions, Guinean mines are tightening control over bauxite shipments. In Australia, as of July 24, total weekly bauxite port departures from major Australian ports were 1.0481 million mt, up 326,800 mt from the previous week, with shipments rising slightly; the future pace of shipments from Australian mines and changes in port departures require further attention. As of July 24, China's bauxite port arrivals stood at 2.7603 million mt, down 1.9029 million mt from the previous week. Continued attention is needed on the impact of high and fluctuating oil prices and ocean freight rates on future arrival pace and landed costs. In terms of prices, Guinean bauxite long-term contract offers for July are in the range of $70-71.5/mt, while August long-term contract prices are still under negotiation. Meanwhile, bauxite inventories at domestic alumina refineries remain at high levels. This week, alumina refinery bauxite inventories were relatively stable, with days of inventories at about 94 days, exerting some downward pressure on ore prices. As for Guinean bauxite, with the rebound in Guinean-to-China transportation costs, mine costs, plus shipment reductions caused by the traditional rainy season and adverse weather, upstream and trader offers remained firm and held steady in the high price range of $70-72/mt. Due to persistently high inventory at domestic alumina refineries and shrinking profits, the intended transaction price dropped to $70/mt or lower. The upstream and downstream bauxite market saw significant price divergence, with transaction activity slowing down, and the tug-of-war continued from the previous week. As of Thursday this week, Guinean bauxite FOB quotes were $38-40/mt, with the average price unchanged from the previous Thursday; CIF prices were reported at $69-73/mt, with the average up $0.5/mt from the previous Thursday; the SMM Imported Bauxite Index stood at $70.87/mt, up $0.51/mt from the previous Thursday. Future bauxite prices will still depend on mine cost conditions, Guinea’s traditional rainy season, and the impact of the Guinean government’s bauxite export quota policy on overall shipments. SMM will continue to closely monitor bauxite market trends and transactions. Overall , the domestic ore market price maintained the current level; meanwhile, inventory at domestic alumina refineries remained high (about 94 days), and buyers and sellers continued to bargain over offers. Uncertainty over Guinea’s quota policy, declining shipments, and the traditional rainy season also exerted some upward pressure on bauxite costs. In the short term, as shipment volumes decline due to both costs and policy factors, imported ore prices are expected to maintain their high-level tug-of-war pattern. Afterwards, close attention should be paid to the implementation of Guinea’s quota policy and the trend in ocean freight rates.

[SMM Weekly Review: Polysilicon Awaits Cost Meeting Plan, Module Prices Stabilize on Profit-Protection Willingness] This week, China's module prices showed signs of stabilizing. Due to the poor financial performance of some enterprises in mid-year, with companies in a continuous state of losses, the sentiment of competing on price to sell began to wane, shifting from previously rushing shipments to now prioritizing profit protection. Module prices began to show stability. However, affected by the pace of warehouse withdrawals of low-efficiency modules, low-price orders still existed in the market, and distributed prices were relatively divergent. On the centralized side, recent project tenders were scarce, and demand recovery was slower than expected.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Metro Mining shipped a record 1.8 million WMT of bauxite in Q2 2026, up 7% year-on-year, while maintaining its full-year shipment guidance of 6.6-7.1 million WMT. The company negotiated an average 9% increase in Q3 CIF pricing following firmer market conditions and expects to ship more than 5 million WMT in the second half of 2026. Around 80% of its 2026 freight requirements remain covered by long-term contracts, limiting exposure to higher freight rates. Metro said rising freight and diesel costs have tightened the global bauxite market, with higher shipping costs from Guinea supporting a recovery in traded bauxite prices. The company expects further upside in bauxite prices once excess Chinese port inventories are absorbed, while noting that Guinea producers are facing profitability pressure as freight rates remain elevated.

[Black Sea] Export offers for Black Sea steel billets held steady at 465 USD/tonne FOB this week. Escalating security risks targeting merchant vessels in the Black Sea have driven shipowners' chartering willingness to a freezing point and made marine war risk insurance extremely difficult to secure, sending freight rates on the Russia-Turkey route soaring. This substantial spike in logistics expenses has severely squeezed producers' export netbacks and brought Black Sea billet export trade to a virtual standstill. Although individual Russian mills previously secured deals to Turkey at 490 USD/tonne CFR, taking new orders has ground to a complete halt due to severe shipping bottlenecks.

[Turkey] Trading activity in the Turkish semi-finished and finished steel markets slowed down simultaneously this week. In the steel billet sector, import offers held steady at 490 USD/tonne CFR, anchored by previously concluded low-priced Russian resources, while Asian offers remained unviable due to elevated sea freight costs; domestic billet quotes stabilized at 520 USD/tonne EXW. In the rebar sector, domestic buying interest cooled following a brief restocking spree, with mainstream ex-works offers holding at 570 USD/tonne EXW as cautious buyers maintain inventories sufficient through mid-August. Meanwhile, rebar export offers held at 575–580 USD/tonne FOB, but overseas demand remains severely constrained by seasonal construction lulls, elevated freight rates, and exhausted EU quotas.

China formally ended the value-added tax export rebate for photovoltaic products on April 1, 2026. In the first days after implementation, higher export costs and the renegotiation of existing contracts briefly lifted some module offers. That support proved short-lived.

[7.28 Morning Meeting Minutes] On July 24, Trump ordered a suspension of airstrikes on Iran (following 13 consecutive nights of strikes), primarily due to the depletion of air defense interceptor reserves and to leave room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran announced a suspension of reciprocal strikes on the 26th. Brent crude oil plunged 5% at Monday's open to around $92, and WTI fell to around $84.70. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract fell in morning trading, closing at 132,170 yuan/mt, down 0.42%. The US-Iran conflict has pressed pause, crude oil prices dropped significantly, and as sulfur cost support weakened, nickel prices pulled back. The US Fed will hold its July FOMC meeting on July 29, and the market widely expects interest rates to remain unchanged, easing macro pressure. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt in the near term.

[7.27 Morning Briefing] The central bank announced that, to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system, on July 24, 2026, the People's Bank of China conducted 500 billion yuan of MLF operations with a 1-year tenor via fixed quantity, interest rate tender, and multiple price bidding. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) plunged during the night session, but rebounded slightly by the morning close to 132,610 yuan/mt, up 0.2%. Nickel inventories have continued destocking recently, supporting a rebound in nickel prices; meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict and the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz have once again raised concerns over sulfur supply disruptions, and nickel prices are holding up well in the short term.