SMM Nickel News, March 18: Macro and Market News: (1) "Fed Chairman whisperer" Nick Timiraos said the US Fed may be more inclined to remain silent this week. But forecasts force them to sketch out a path. Two former Fed Chairmen told me they hoped to avoid forecasting interest rate cuts in the near term. Whether current officials will adopt the same stance has become the core focus of this meeting, with both hawks and doves potentially sticking to their positions by pointing to the same shock. (2) US President Trump again expressed his personal dissatisfaction with NATO at the White House on March 17 local time. Trump said whether the US should withdraw from NATO "is indeed something we should consider." Spot Market: On March 18, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 1,950 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 6,550 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the range for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China was -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract continued to fluctuate downward during the session and closed the morning session at 135,110 yuan/mt, down 1.49. Heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed up oil prices and intensified inflation concerns. The market expects the US Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, while the US dollar continued to strengthen, creating clear pressure on nickel prices. Although macro pressure remained significant, the industrial support logic has not changed. The market is still concerned that supply of nickel intermediate products tightens. Short term, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to move sideways in the 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt range.

Gold surged during the 12-day war with Iran last year and then gave up its gains when a ceasefire was announced. But, two weeks into the latest conflict, its price remains largely unmoved.

Precious metals are having a moment. Gold and silver surged to record highs in January, benefiting from an alignment of macroeconomic factors, evolving supply-demand dynamics, and renewed industrial demand.

Spanish energy giant Iberdrola SA achieved a 12% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2025, reaching €6.29 billion. While lower energy prices in Europe weighed on its production and retail divisions, the company’s strategic shift toward power networks paid off, with regulated asset growth driving a 20.5% EBITDA surge in that sector. Supported by €14.46 billion in total investments, Iberdrola successfully offset market volatility. Looking forward, the utility anticipates continued growth from global electrification, forecasting net profits to exceed €6.6 billion in 2026.

The iron ore market in 2025 did not experience the widespread collapse predicted by some pessimistic forecasts. Instead, it followed an "N-shaped" trend characterized by "higher lows and capped highs." Overall, the price volatility of iron ore in 2025 was significantly narrower compared to the previous two years.

The escalation of conflicts between Israel and Iran has strengthened the market's demand for safe-haven assets. Silver, as a precious metal with both safe-haven and industrial attributes, has become an alternative choice for capital to seek refuge amid the backdrop of gold's trend being suppressed by the rebound of the US dollar index on June 17. At the end of May, the gold-silver ratio once broke through the historical extreme of 1:100, far exceeding the previous long-term average of 60-80, indicating that silver was severely undervalued. The demand for silver's valuation repair has supported its price. The long-term trend of the global silver supply-demand gap provides underlying support for silver prices. As the most-traded SHFE silver contract technically broke through the round-number threshold of 9,000 yuan/kg, it attracted more market capital inflows, pushing silver prices to repeatedly hit new highs. As of around 15:19 on June 18, the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose by 2.35%, closing at 9,045 yuan/kg, and refreshing its historical high since listing to 9,075 yuan/kg...

From Washington to London, more than a dozen central banks will hold policy meetings this week, with the economies they represent accounting for two-fifths of the global economy. Among them, in addition to the highly anticipated US Fed, another G10 central bank's policy meeting this week will also attract widespread attention: the Swiss National Bank (SNB), which has been continuously pushing global interest rates to new lows. According to industry surveys of economists, the SNB is likely to cut interest rates to zero this week and maintain them at this low level for some time. Nearly 80% of the surveyed economists expect that SNB policymakers will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points to 0% this Thursday. This move will return the benchmark interest rate to a level not seen since September 2022, when the SNB just ended its seven-year negative interest rate policy. And this will also become the lowest interest rate among major economies globally at present. Among the 22 forecasting institutions surveyed, only three institutions—Pantheon Macroeconomics, Capital Economics, and Swiss Life Asset Managers—predict that the SNB will directly cut interest rates by 50 basis points to -0.25% this week. Another six institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Nomura, and Barclays, expect the SNB to enter "negative interest rate" territory in September, but most surveyed institutions believe the easing cycle will end in June. SNB officials can cite the country's extremely weak CPI growth as a reason for a sixth consecutive interest rate cut: Last month, Switzerland's inflation rate turned negative for the first time since early 2021. Meanwhile, economists surveyed by the industry predict that the average annual inflation rate will be only 0.3% this year and 0.6% in 2026. In addition, exchange rate fluctuations may also be one of the factors considered by the SNB this week. SNB policymakers are trying to take measures to curb capital inflows into the Swiss franc. Since US President Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariff measures in early April, the Swiss franc has appreciated more than 8% against the US dollar. Since then, the Swiss franc has also continued to appreciate against the euro, a currency pair of particular concern to the SNB. The strength of the Swiss franc has pushed down import costs and the consumer price index. It is worth mentioning that although SNB President Martin Schlegel stated in mid-May that officials had had productive discussions with Washington on central bank exchange rate intervention measures, the US Treasury still included Switzerland in its list of economies closely monitored for exchange rate policies in its semi-annual report on exchange rate policies last week.

Since the "Regulation on Ensuring Payments to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" officially came into effect on June 1, 2025, the automotive industry has responded swiftly. Seventeen mainstream automakers, including GAC, FAW, Dongfeng, and BYD, have publicly committed to uniformly shortening the payment terms for suppliers to within 60 days. This seemingly simple adjustment to payment terms is actually reshaping the underlying logic of the automotive supply chain. Especially for upstream battery cell manufacturers, its impact has gone beyond the level of capital turnover, touching the core lifeline of industrial development.

Debt restructuring for real estate enterprises is expected to enter the "debt reduction era." Recently, Sunac China announced that holders of approximately 74% of the total outstanding principal amount of its existing debts had submitted letters to join the offshore debt restructuring support agreement. Country Garden also announced that it had reached a consensus with over 70% of its creditors on high-yield bonds in terms of offshore debt, aiming to complete the overall restructuring of offshore debt within this year. With Sunac and Country Garden successively announcing the progress of their offshore debt restructuring, the debt restructuring or reorganization of troubled real estate enterprises is accelerating. Since June, offshore debt restructuring plans of real estate enterprises such as CIFI and Golden Wheel Tiandi have basically been approved by creditors and will proceed to court hearings. Logan Group has released a debt restructuring plan, aiming to advance debt optimization efforts. At the same time, the debt restructuring model for real estate enterprises is shifting from extension to substantive debt reduction. Among them, Sunac's offshore debt restructuring plan is expected to reduce debt by approximately RMB 60 billion. Country Garden's offshore debt restructuring proposal is expected to reduce debt by up to $11.6 billion. CIFI's offshore debt restructuring is expected to reduce offshore debt by approximately $5.27 billion, equivalent to approximately RMB 37.9 billion. "If enterprises and investors can reach a consensus on the terms of debt restructuring involving 'debt reduction,' we believe that the short-term liquidity pressure on real estate enterprises will be alleviated, allowing them to devote more energy to asset revitalization and sales, which will have a positive impact on the stabilization of the entire industry," Shi Lulu, Director of Corporate Ratings, Asia Pacific at Fitch Ratings, told reporters. However, while reaching a restructuring agreement can alleviate external financing pressure, real estate enterprises still face challenges in internal operating cash flow. Shi Lulu believes that in the short term, the quality of existing projects and the ability to revitalize assets are important considerations for determining a real estate enterprise's endogenous cash flow and investor decisions. "Despite the continuous optimization and adjustment of policies by the central and local governments, the recovery of the real estate market may primarily be concentrated in first-tier cities and some strong second-tier cities. However, competition in these cities is intensifying, as most national state-owned real estate enterprises are also repositioning and focusing on developing in these cities," Shi Lulu said. "Whether restructuring real estate enterprises can replenish land in these cities will have a significant impact on their medium and long-term development." Acceleration of Debt Restructuring for Real Estate Enterprises Recently, leading real estate enterprises such as Sunac and Country Garden have successively announced the progress of their restructuring, with debt reductions often amounting to billions of dollars, signaling that the industry's debt resolution process has entered a critical stage. "Currently, Sunac has secured support from approximately 74% of all creditors, indicating that the offshore debt restructuring is substantially completed," a debt restructuring analyst said. When the court rules on a debt restructuring case, it is deemed approved if 75% of the creditors who participate in the vote cast affirmative votes. A source close to Sunac told reporters that once the offshore debt restructuring is successful, Sunac will become the first large-scale real estate enterprise in the industry to have its offshore debt basically cleared to "zero," significantly mitigating debt risks at the publicly listed firm level, with an estimated debt resolution of approximately 60 billion yuan. Sunac's offshore debt restructuring receiving a high level of support is not an isolated case. On June 5, Wu Bijun, Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director of Country Garden, stated at an online shareholders' meeting that consensus had been reached with over 70% of creditors on high-yield debt. In addition, CIFI Holdings has also made progress in its offshore debt restructuring. The company announced that it had secured the required statutory majority support from plan creditors at a plan meeting held on June 3, and it is expected that offshore debt will be reduced by approximately $5.27 billion after the restructuring. The next step is to seek court approval for the plan on June 26. On the same day, Logan Group announced the optimization and adjustment of its debt restructuring plan. Under the new restructuring plan, the 29 original credit enhancement assets of the underlying bonds will be used for the full conversion of the specific asset option, the asset-for-debt settlement mode (including in-kind debt settlement and trust debt settlement) under the asset-for-debt option, and the full debt retention option, maximizing the revitalization of credit enhancement assets. Meanwhile, the company's shareholders will raise additional cash and equity resources for the new restructuring plan. Liu Shui, Director of Corporate Research at the China Index Academy, told reporters that the acceleration of debt restructuring among real estate enterprises is attributed to two factors. First, distressed real estate enterprises are offering diversified restructuring methods, such as combining debt-to-equity swaps, debt maturity extensions, asset settlements, and cash payments, which can meet the needs of different creditors and improve the acceptability of the plans. Second, creditors' attitudes have shifted under the current market conditions. "The real estate market has been adjusting for a long time, and creditors are aware of the difficulty real estate enterprises face in repaying debts. Compared to bankruptcy liquidation and the continuous depreciation of assets, they are more inclined to accept restructuring plans to improve the debt repayment rate. Additionally, some creditors, after the continuous transfer of debts of distressed real estate enterprises, have lower holding costs. If the cash recovery value of the restructuring plan is more attractive, they are more willing to accept it." Debt-to-Equity Swaps and Debt Reduction Become Mainstream It is worth noting that this year, the debt restructuring of real estate enterprises has moved from maturity extensions and deferred payments into the deep waters of debt reduction and burden alleviation. According to the offshore debt restructuring plans of Sunac, Country Garden, and CIFI Holdings, a significant reduction in debt principal has become a core feature. This shift may be driven by severe debt pressures. Data from CRIC shows that the scale of debt maturities for real estate enterprises in 2025 will reach 525.7 billion yuan, further climbing from 482.8 billion yuan in 2024. "The scale of debt maturities for real estate enterprises this year is higher than that in 2024, posing greater debt repayment pressures. As multiple real estate enterprises advance their debt restructuring, the trend of increasing debt reduction ratios is gradually emerging," pointed out a research report by Orient Securities. "This year, the debt reduction ratios in the debt restructuring of many real estate enterprises are significantly higher than the levels in 2023," Zhang Bo, President of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, told reporters. In the first five months of this year, the total sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises declined on a YoY basis, while the sales decline of distressed real estate enterprises was even more pronounced, directly leading to changes in the original cash flow forecasting models for these enterprises. "Under the new model, the future cash inflows of distressed real estate enterprises are expected to continue to decrease. This cash flow gap renders extension strategies ineffective. Only by reducing debt through debt reduction can the interests of creditors be maximized," Zhang Bo said. Liu Shui further explained that considering the decline in the absolute scale of the new home market over the long term and the fact that the market is still bottoming out in the short term, with asset depreciation pressures remaining, simply extending the repayment period may lead to issues of repeated overdue payments and secondary extensions, and cannot thoroughly resolve the debt crisis. "Therefore, debt-to-equity swaps and principal reductions can achieve a reduction in the company's debt scale, delay the overall debt repayment pressure, and debt-to-equity swaps also simultaneously increase net assets, which is conducive to repairing the company's balance sheet and creating conditions for an improvement in the company's fundamental business performance," Liu Shui said. Multiple industry analysts have pointed out that in the future, under the pressure of unstable new home sales and asset depreciation, real estate enterprises with greater debt repayment pressures will accelerate their debt restructuring processes, and increasing debt reduction ratios may become a widespread trend. Policy Environment Provides Support for Real Estate Enterprises' Debt Restructuring Behind the acceleration of real estate enterprises' debt restructuring lies the simultaneous improvement of the policy environment and market financing conditions. At the policy level, Li Yunze, Director of the National Financial Regulatory Administration, stated at a State Council Information Office press conference on May 7 that the government will expedite the introduction of a series of financing systems tailored to the new model of real estate development to help sustain and consolidate the stability of the real estate market. "This means that more supporting policies will be continuously implemented in the future, and loan support for enterprises will be continuously increased," Liu Shui said. It is expected that the "white list" policy for real estate project financing will continue to be refined to facilitate the substantial allocation of funds and improve the financial positions of enterprises. At the same time, the urban real estate financing coordination mechanism plays a positive role in ensuring the smooth construction and delivery of projects, stabilizing the confidence of financial institutions, alleviating the financial pressure on enterprises, promoting risk isolation and resolution, and driving improvements in market expectations, which is conducive to the smooth progress of debt restructuring work. A real estate industry analyst pointed out that it is expected that the role of policy support will become increasingly apparent. For example, the 4 trillion yuan financing white list and the acquisition and storage of existing housing and idle land by real estate enterprises will play a certain role in promoting the asset liquidation and debt repayment of distressed real estate enterprises. At the market level, financing costs for real estate enterprises have declined. Data from the China Index Academy shows that in May this year, the total bond financing of real estate enterprises was 28.88 billion yuan, up 23.5% YoY. The average interest rate for bond financing was 2.35%, down 0.43 percentage points YoY and 0.41 percentage points MoM. "In terms of institutional innovation in the future, tools such as tiered design of convertible bonds, service trusts, and optimization of M&A financing will be used to reshape the logic of debt restructuring for real estate enterprises. However, challenges such as the sustainability of sales recovery and slow credit repair still need to be addressed," said Zhang Bo. In fact, although the debt restructuring of real estate enterprises has accelerated, industry risks have not yet been fully cleared. Liu Shui believes that the success of a real estate enterprise's restructuring does not mean it is out of the woods. Successful debt restructuring will help mitigate risks, but for enterprises to truly emerge from the crisis, they still need the support of a market recovery. Only after their fundamentals improve can they avoid repeated extensions or restructuring.

Date Set! 2025 SMM Copper Conference will be officially held from October 15-17! Register Now The conference will focus on technological breakthroughs, market trends, policy coordination, and international cooperation within the copper industry chain. It will feature keynote speeches, industry matchmaking, project signings, technology exhibition, and other sessions. We sincerely invite leading enterprises, research institutions, financial institutions, and industry experts from both domestic and overseas markets to participate and jointly explore new paths for the coordinated development of the industry chain. Conference Highlights Copper Industry Gathering The SMM Copper Conference is an annual grand event for the copper industry, bringing together industry leaders, traders, analysts, and other professionals from around the world. Participants have the opportunity to discuss and understand the latest trends, challenges, and opportunities in the copper market. SMM Copper Industry Carnival Gala Dinner The Copper Metal Carnival Gala Dinner is the social highlight of the annual conference, exclusively for invited VIP guests. It provides a unique networking opportunity and is one of the most important social events in the metal industry. Data & Analysis The SMM Copper Conference offers a wealth of market data and analytical reports to help participants gain in-depth insights into market dynamics and future trends. Participants can access detailed data and insights on copper metal prices, trading volumes, warehousing conditions, and more. Cutting-Edge Topic Discussions The Copper Conference includes multiple panel discussions and speeches covering a wide range of topics, from market forecasting to technological innovation, supply chain management, and the use of financial instruments. Through these discussions, participants can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the industry and practical insights. Global Perspective & International Collaboration The conference will explore the current state and future development trends of the metal industry from a global perspective, promoting international cooperation and exchanges. It features an online 1V1 appointment system to facilitate global participants in arranging meetings and exchanges. It serves as a centralized communication platform for long-term contract negotiations among upstream and downstream participants in the metal mining, smelting, and trading sectors. Register to Attend Target Attendees Downstream industries of copper mining, smelting, processing, and end-use applications · Copper Raw Material Sector Copper Mining Enterprises · Third-Party Service Providers Processing equipment, environmental protection equipment, automation equipment, etc. · Others Government, associations, industry experts, university research institutions, financial institutions, media, platforms, associations, futures companies, securities firms, and banks. · Copper Smelting Sector Copper Smelters · End-Use Sector Electronics, electrical, automotive parts, semiconductors, cables, circuit boards, PV, batteries, etc. · Processing Sector Copper rod, copper plate/sheet and strip, copper billet, copper busbar, copper pipe & tube, copper foil Register to Attend Overall Schedule Conference Agenda Forum 1: Precision Copper Processing Intelligent Manufacturing Forum October 15, Afternoon 13:30-14:00 2025 Copper Processing Material Capacity and Industry Analysis 14:00-15:00 Roundtable Discussion: Current Status and Future Trends of Copper Processing in 2025 15:00-15:30 Market Applications and Trends Outlook for Copper Pipes and Rods 15:30-16:00 Direct Rolling Technology for Secondary Copper: A Closed-Loop Path from Scrap to High-End Copper Rods 16:00-17:00 Roundtable Discussion: Where Should the Copper Industry Go Amid Overcapacity? Main Forum October 16, Morning 09:00-09:20 Opening Ceremony Speech 09:20-09:40 Global Copper Industry Chain Supply-Demand Pattern and Price Forecast for 2025 09:40-10:10 China's Copper Resource Strategy and Countermeasures for Overseas Investment Risks 10:10-10:30 Secondary Copper: The Key to Circular Economy for Breaking Resource Constraints 10:30-10:50 Planning for High-Quality Development of China's Copper Industry 10:50-11:10 Tea Break 11:10-12:00 Roundtable Discussion: Breakthroughs in the Copper Industry: Triple Challenges of Resources, Technology, and Markets 12:00-13:30 Buffet Lunch + Lunch Break Registration Forum II: Key Application Forum for Copper-Based New Materials October 16, Afternoon 13:30-14:00 Current Status and Trends of Global New Energy Development 14:00-14:30 Preparation Technology for New Generation High-Performance Rolled Copper Foil 14:30-15:00 Future Strategies for NEV Products and Application Trends of Green Materials 15:00-16:00 Roundtable Discussion: New Materials and New Applications in Intelligence, AI, Robotics, etc. 16:00-16:30 Effect of Thermomechanical Treatment on the Microstructure and Properties of Cu-Ni-Si Alloy 16:30-17:00 Application of Intelligent Technology in Copper Alloy Design and Strip Processing Forum III: Forum on Low-Carbon Energy Transition in the Copper Industry October 16, Afternoon 13:30-14:00 Interpretation of China's Copper Industry Policies and Transition Pathways under the "Dual Carbon" Goals 14:00-14:30 Innovation Practices in Green Mines and Low-Carbon Smelting Technologies 14:30-15:00 Research on Energy and Carbon Efficiency in Various Links of the Copper Industry 15:00-16:00 Roundtable Discussion: Symbiosis of Metals and Energy 16:00-16:30 Analysis of Costs and Opportunities for Copper Enterprises in the Carbon Trading Market 16:30-17:00 Practical Cases of Revenue from ESS Technologies for Enterprises Registration for Attendance