[US Lithium Mine Development Boom: From One Mine to Over 100 Planned Projects by 2030] The US lithium industry is standing at the threshold of a historic transformation, about to leap from its current status of having only one producing lithium mine to becoming a significant participant in the global critical battery metals market. Currently, only one lithium mine is operating across the entire US, but this landscape is about to change rapidly. By 2030, at least six new projects are expected to come into production successively, with another 13 projects close behind. This round of expansion is primarily concentrated in the geologically favorable arid regions of the Southwest, but this is merely the beginning of a potential mining boom. According to the latest industry data, enterprises have identified over 100 potential lithium ore extraction areas nationwide. Behind this aggressive expansion is the continued climb in lithium ore demand from EV batteries and renewable energy ESSs—both of which are indispensable key elements of the energy transition. The rapid expansion of lithium mining scale has raised important questions from the outside world about environmental impacts, water resource consumption, and how to strike a balance between domestic mineral security and ecological protection. In this race for self-sufficient supply of "white gold," community residents and environmental protection advocates are closely watching how this industrial transformation will advance and take shape in some of America's most fragile desert ecosystems. Source: https://www.envirolink.org [Lithium Ore Reserves in Eastern US States May Replace Over a Century of Import Demand] U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists announced this discovery, estimating its scale sufficient to replace over three hundred years of lithium import demand. The US currently relies on imports for nearly half of its lithium consumption, a dependency that has long been a concern for energy security analysts. Lithium occupies a central position in the modern economy, serving as a critical material for lithium-ion batteries used in smartphones, laptops, EVs, and aerospace alloys. Against the backdrop of accelerating global demand and intensifying geopolitical pressures, domestic reserves of this scale carry significant strategic importance. This discovery came at a sensitive period in the global mineral landscape. Australia currently supplies nearly half of global lithium production, while China not only has considerable production but also dominates global refining and consumption. Thirty years ago, the US was the world's largest lithium producer, but that position was long since relinquished. Whether this discovery can help the US return to that position remains to be seen, but the scale of data cited is sufficient to warrant serious attention. The scale of this discovery is most vivid in numbers. According to USGS estimates, the reserves are sufficient to support the construction of 1.6 million grid-scale batteries, and officials stated they could power 130 million EVs or support 180 billion laptops running cumulatively for a thousand years. USGS also estimates that the reserves could support the production of 500 billion mobile phones, equivalent to approximately 60 devices for every person currently on Earth. Perhaps the most striking figure in the USGS assessment is this: measured against last year's consumption levels, the reserves are sufficient to replace 328 years of US lithium import demand. This is not a forecast of future demand, but merely a baseline comparison between existing underground reserves and historical US import demand. Source: https://indiandefencereview.com [European Metals' Cinovec Lithium Mine Project EIA Passes Czech Ministry of Environment Review] European Metals Holdings Limited (ASX/AIM: EMH) announced that its flagship Cinovec lithium mine project in the Czech Republic has achieved a significant milestone in environmental permitting. The Czech Ministry of Environment has completed its review and officially released the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) report, with a public hearing scheduled to be held in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, a cross-border EIA process involving German authorities has been formally initiated to address the transnational impacts of the project along the Czech-German border. For investors tracking the development progress of the Cinovec project, these developments are not routine updates — the company has explicitly identified the EIA release as a critical path period for obtaining final approval and advancing the project to implementation. "We are pleased with the progress the project team has made on environmental permitting for the Cinovec project. The release of the EIA report by the Czech Ministry of Environment is a critical path period for obtaining final EIA approval and advancing the Cinovec project." — Executive Chairman Keith Coughlan Source: [Latin America's Lithium Supply Gap: Structural Barriers Constraining Capacity Release] The global energy transition is built on a series of assumptions, and one of the most consequential is that the world's largest lithium reserves, concentrated in a narrow strip of South America, will be able to reliably convert into the battery-grade lithium materials increasingly and urgently needed for EVs, power grid ESSs, and consumer electronics. However, this assumption is being put to a severe test. Latin America's lithium supply gap is not a matter of salt flats being depleted or aquifers running dry, but rather a widening chasm between underground reserves and market-accessible capacity. Reserves are abundant, yet production-ready capacity falls far short. More critically, this gap continues to widen at a pivotal moment when global demand is accelerating its climb. To understand the root causes, one must look beyond the surface figures and examine in depth the structural mechanisms behind the entire chain from lithium geological deposits to battery cathode material. Source:

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Geopolitical Tensions Resurface Outside China, Lead Prices to Give Back Some Gains] Tensions rise again in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire by launching airstrikes on Iranian coastal areas and oil tankers. Geopolitical events outside China resurfaced, the macro situation became tense, and non-ferrous metals largely pulled back. China's lead fundamentals underperformed...

SMM May 8 News: Metals market: Overnight base metals showed mixed performance across domestic and overseas markets. LME zinc led the gains with a 1.1% rise, SHFE tin rose 0.76%, LME aluminum fell 1.34%, LME tin fell 1.25%, and the remaining metals posted % changes within 1%. The alumina most-traded contract fell 0.03%, while the foundry aluminum most-traded contract rose 0.02%. Overnight ferrous metals: stainless steel fell 0.97% to lead the declines, iron ore temporarily settled flat at 815 yuan/mt, and rebar rose 0.4%. Coking coal and coke showed mixed performance, with coking coal up 0.46% and coke down 0.11%. Overnight precious metals: COMEX gold rose 0.04% and COMEX silver rose 2.09%. In China, SHFE gold rose 0.12% and SHFE silver rose 2.49%. PBOC: China's gold reserves stood at 74.64 million ounces (approximately 2,321.56 mt) at the end of April, up 260,000 ounces (approximately 8.09 mt) MoM from 74.38 million ounces (approximately 2,313.48 mt) at the end of March, marking the 18th consecutive month of gold accumulation. (Jin10 Data APP) As of 6:43 AM on May 8, overnight closing prices: Macro Front China: [Domestic tourism during this year's Labour Day holiday reached 325 million trips, up 3.6% YoY] During the Labour Day holiday, domestic tourism reached 325 million trips nationwide, up 3.6% YoY; total domestic tourism spending was 185.492 billion yuan, up 2.9% YoY. (CCTV News) (Jin10 Data APP) [MOFCOM spokesperson answered reporters' questions on the EU's ban on funding projects using Chinese inverters] According to media reports, EU officials stated that the EU will ban funding for projects using inverters from China and other "high-risk countries." When asked for China's comment, the MOFCOM spokesperson said China has noted the relevant reports. Without any actual evidence, the EU for the first time designated China as a so-called "high-risk country" and used this as a pretext to ban funding for projects using Chinese inverters. This constitutes stigmatization of China and imposes unfair and discriminatory treatment on Chinese products. China rejects and firmly opposes this. China urges the EU to immediately stop stigmatizing China by labeling it a "high-risk country" and to revoke the unfair and discriminatory practices against Chinese products. China will closely monitor and carefully assess the impact of EU policies on the interests of Chinese enterprises and China-EU industrial and supply chains, and will take measures to safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises. (MOFCOM) (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar: As of the overnight close, the US dollar index rose 0.27% to 98.28. New York Fed President Williams said on Thursday that demand for US Treasuries remained strong despite the government's massive borrowing. Williams said the US Fed was watching the government's extremely high borrowing levels "very closely." He noted that while it may be surprising, demand for US Treasuries remained "enormous," and "the US is still seen as the strongest economy in the world" and an ideal safe haven for capital, "even with all the geopolitical issues and other factors, that hasn't changed." Williams also said the US economy had shown considerable resilience amid the energy shock triggered by the Middle East war. He said that given surging energy prices, "the biggest question" was how the situation would evolve, adding that regarding inflation that continued to stay high, the US Fed would "make sure" and commit to bringing inflation back down to the 2% target. (Jin10 Data APP) San Francisco Fed President Daly downplayed the divergence in the US Fed's statement, suggesting she would not dissent like some of her colleagues. She said the wording of the statement was less important than actions, and the real signal from the meeting was the unanimous agreement on the decision. Last month, three officials objected to language hinting at future interest rate cuts, arguing that the energy shock and uncertainty from the Iran war made a signal that "rates could go up or down" more appropriate. Daly, who does not have a vote this year, said the public understood the US Fed's price stability mandate. Daly said there were no signs yet that energy prices were pushing up medium- or long-term inflation expectations. "It's too early to tell. If the conflict ends and oil prices pull back without transmitting to the broader economy, the fundamental dynamics from before the conflict are expected to return." She was committed to achieving the 2% inflation target but should not overreact to the expected duration of the energy shock. She said policy was "slightly restrictive," and if the war were resolved, it would pose downward pressure on inflation; the labour market was stable and not generating inflationary pressure. (Jin10 Data APP) [US Fed's Kashkari: Next interest rate move uncertain due to Iran conflict] Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the Middle East conflict had added uncertainty to the interest rate outlook. "Given the uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, I actually don't know what's going to happen," Kashkari said at an event in Marquette, Michigan. "If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, the next interest rate move could very well need to be upward." (Wallstreetcn) According to CME "FedWatch": the probability of the US Fed holding rates unchanged through June was 96.4%, with a 3.6% probability of a cumulative 25 bps interest rate cut. The probability of holding rates unchanged through July was 90.2%, with a 9.5% probability of a cumulative 25 bps cut and a 0.2% probability of a cumulative 50 bps cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro: Data to be released today include: US April unemployment rate, US April seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, US April average hourly earnings YoY, US April average hourly earnings MoM, US May preliminary one-year inflation expectations, US May preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, US March wholesale sales MoM, Germany March seasonally adjusted industrial output MoM, Germany March seasonally adjusted trade balance, Switzerland April consumer confidence index, UK April Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index MoM, and Canada April employment figures. In addition, a new round of domestic refined oil price adjustments will open. 2026 FOMC voter and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will participate in a fireside chat; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will deliver a speech; FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a speech; US Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech; and Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak on global imbalances. Crude oil: As of the overnight close, oil prices on both markets rose, with WTI up 2.71% and Brent up 2.13%. Citi's global head of commodities research Max Layton said oil prices would continue to swing wildly until there was clarity on whether Iran and Trump could reach a deal. "It's hard to predict whether Iran will reach a deal, and in an environment where you simply don't know whether a deal will be reached, the market is inevitably news-driven and will experience wild swings." Crude oil fell for a third consecutive trading day on Thursday. Layton said the decline was partly driven by "the market's hope that the two sides could begin deal negotiations." However, physical crude oil market pressures in the Middle East persisted. Traders said that a key crude oil loading terminal in Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz, experienced loading delays in April, disrupting shipping plans and potentially delaying deliveries to buyers. Layton said the global physical crude oil market had accumulated "quite substantial buffer inventory" of approximately 700 million to 800 million barrels over the past 12 months. "We are burning through this inventory rapidly," he said, but the impact would "manifest gradually over a longer period." He added that before actually lowering oil price forecasts, he needed to see whether Iran was ready to seriously reach a deal with the US. Last month, after the second round of US-Iran peace talks failed to take place, Citi raised its Brent crude benchmark price forecast by $15 to $110/barrel and pushed back its baseline expectation for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz from mid-to-late April to the end of May. (Jin10 Data APP) International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said the agency was prepared to release more crude oil from its strategic reserves if war-induced supply disruptions persisted. He added that the agency had so far released 20% of its available oil reserves to ease rising prices. Releasing additional crude oil onto the international market would limit demand for US crude at all levels. Demand side, Marathon's refinery in Carson, California reported that it planned to conduct flaring activities from May 8 to May 12 due to maintenance work. (Wallstreetcn)

[Price Review] This week, expectations for a US-Iran ceasefire continued to heat up, with US media reporting that the US and Iran were close to reaching a ceasefire agreement, driving a sharp pullback in crude oil and a retreat in medium- and long-term US Treasury yields from highs, which propelled a significant rally in precious metals, with silver's gains notably outpacing gold. US April ADP employment data released this week showed an addition of 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market. The market has now turned its focus to Friday evening's non-farm payrolls report. On expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts, the latest CME data showed that market bets on near-term US Fed rate cuts remained at low levels, with a 93.5% probability of maintaining the current rate at the June FOMC meeting, corresponding to a 6.5% probability of a rate cut; the probability of holding rates steady at the July meeting reached 86.5%, with a 13.5% probability of a rate cut. Industrial demand side, downstream consumption remained sluggish, with downstream participants taking a cautious wait-and-see approach amid the silver price rebound, and only some downstream enterprises making just-in-time procurement. Gold/silver ratio side, as of May 6, the LBMA gold/silver ratio fell to 61. [Key Data] Bullish: On May 6, the US side stated it was close to reaching a ceasefire memorandum with Iran. If the agreement materializes, the pullback in oil prices would ease inflationary pressures and weaken the US Fed's hawkish stance. Dovish divisions within the US Fed persisted, with some officials still believing there was room for multiple interest rate cuts within the year, keeping the rate cut window open and preventing a complete reversal of easing expectations. Concerns over slowing US economic growth emerged, with market expectations for US Q1 GDP growth pulling back sharply from the previous reading. Stagflation and recession fears reinforced safe-haven allocation demand for silver. Bearish: US April ADP employment added 109,000 jobs, hitting a nearly 15-month high and highlighting the overall resilience of the labor market. The April FOMC meeting kept rates unchanged. CME data showed a 93.5% probability of holding rates steady in June, with expectations for rate cuts within the year contracting to 0–1 times, and the US dollar and real US Treasury yields held up well. China's silver industrial demand remained subdued, with downstream PV and electronics enterprises maintaining just-in-time procurement, and social inventory of spot silver ingots continued to accumulate. Key data and macro developments to watch in the near term include: May 7: Bank of England interest rate decision, ECB April monetary policy meeting minutes. May 8: US April non-farm payrolls report. May 12: US April CPI data. In addition, close attention should be paid to the progress of the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. [Price Forecast] US-Iran ceasefire negotiations have entered a critical window. Although both sides have released signals of peace talks, core demands have not yet been reconciled. Whether the agreement ultimately materializes and whether new uncertainties emerge regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to dominate market risk appetite, serving as the core variable affecting silver's short-term trajectory. Against this backdrop, silver is expected to first see a volatile rebound and then consolidate at highs next week, with an overall bullish bias. On the fundamentals side in China, downstream consumption remained sluggish. With the rebound in spot silver prices, downstream enterprises exhibited strong wait-and-see sentiment. The upward trend in social inventory of spot silver ingots has yet to improve, and the mainstream spot market transactions are expected to maintain a slight discount relative to the Shanghai Gold Exchange TD price.

Benefiting from the backdrop of tech companies investing heavily in artificial intelligence computing, the adoption of Arm (ARM.O) chip technology continued to rise. The company on Wednesday forecast its first fiscal quarter revenue at $1.26 billion, above market expectations of $1.25 billion. Arm CEO Rene Haas said, "We are very bullish on data center demand," adding that there was "pretty significant growth in data center-related royalties" during the quarter. Earlier this year, Arm launched the AGI CPU, a data center chip designed to handle the large-scale data processing required for specific types of AI. The company said on Wednesday that it had secured $2 billion in client demand for the processor for fiscal years 2027 and 2028.

On May 1, 2026, the U.S. announced it would hike tariffs on EU-made cars and trucks to 25% this week, citing the EU’s failure to uphold the August 2025 trade agreement. The move is widely seen as a retaliation against the EU's proposed 50% MFN tariffs on steel imports. Amidst this escalating friction, major European stainless steel producers are capitalizing on the protectionist wave, projecting a doubling of earnings by 2028. This outlook reflects a strategic bet on surging regional prices and structural supply shortages as EU trade defense measures and CBAM reshape the industrial landscape.

[SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes: Limited Macro and Fundamental Positives, Insufficient Momentum for Lead Price Increases] US Trump said a US-Iran deal was "very likely," threatening stronger bombing if talks failed. After the Labour Day holiday, the lead market resumed normal trading, with lead ingot arrivals increasing at warehouses in multiple regions...

[SMM Tin Morning Brief: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Continued Its Daytime Rise During the Night Session, Spot Market Trading Stalled]

[SMM Copper Update] Copper cathode production in April came in at 1.1789 million mt, down 27,200 mt MoM. Cumulative production from January to April reached 4.7067 million mt. Copper cathode production in May is expected to come in at 1.1675 million mt, down 11,400 mt MoM.

Gold has been pulled in two directions in recent weeks. On one side, rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions have strengthened the metal’s safe-haven appeal.