Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,965/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session; it dipped to $1,948.5/mt upon entering the European session, but then rose due to a weakening US dollar index, touching a high of $1,976.5/mt before finally settling at $1,974.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,665 yuan/mt, briefly touched a low of 16,560 yuan/mt early in the session, then rebounded as bears reduced positions, reaching a high of 16,680 yuan/mt before finally settling at 16,665 yuan/mt, up 0.48%, forming a doji star. On the macro front: As markets awaited a series of US economic data, a weaker US dollar made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to overseas buyers; spot gold extended gains. The White House's Hassett predicted worsening employment: AI boosts productivity, reduces labor demand. Alphabet planned to raise about $15 billion by issuing US dollar bonds. China's Ministry of Commerce held a symposium with automakers: Multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of auto consumption. The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing. Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security provided administrative guidance on employment to leading platform companies and courier firms. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance issued an announcement on tax incentives for re-exported cross-border e-commerce goods. : SHFE lead stopped falling and stabilized, but as the Chinese New Year holiday approached, logistics vehicles halted in some regions, leading to reduced shipments and quotations from suppliers. Only some cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters were quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. In the secondary lead sector, more smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, with most enterprises suspending quotations; a few secondary refined lead offers were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end wrap-up phase, with minimal inquiries, resulting in thin trading in the spot market. Inventory: On February 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 100 mt to 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five regions rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: With previously in-transit lead ingots by rail concentratedly arriving at warehouses, social inventory of lead ingots increased significantly, mainly reflected in Jiangsu and Zhejiang region warehouses. Last week, lead prices fell, prompting lead-acid battery enterprises to conduct relatively concentrated stockpiling of lead ingots, leading to a noticeable decline in lead smelters' in-factory inventory. This week being the last before the Chinese New Year, the final batch of lead-acid battery enterprises will enter the holiday state, further weakening lead consumption. Meanwhile, with the start of the Spring Festival travel season, migrant workers have returned to their hometowns, and the number of vehicles in operation has gradually decreased. Currently, some regions no longer support road transportation. It is expected that the growth momentum of social inventory for lead ingots will slow down, and the inventory buildup of lead ingots is anticipated to be more reflected in the smelters' plant inventories. Overall, lead prices are in the doldrums ahead of the holiday. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.

As the Chinese New Year holiday is around the corner, Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) hereby informs you of our metal price update arrangement during the holiday period to ensure you can make proper arrangements for your work and business.

According to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's WeChat update, on February 13, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology convened a plenary meeting of the Leading Group for the Development of the Low-Altitude Industry. The meeting focused on thoroughly studying and implementing the important instructions and directives of General Secretary Xi Jinping, and discussed and arranged key tasks to promote the safe, orderly, and healthy development of the low-altitude industry. Li Lecheng, Secretary of the Party Leadership Group and Minister of the Ministry, and Head of the Leading Group for the Development of the Low-Altitude Industry, presided over the meeting and delivered a speech. Xin Guobin, Member of the Party Leadership Group and Vice Minister, and Xie Shaofeng, Chief Engineer, attended the meeting. The meeting noted that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's low-altitude industry has achieved positive results, with accelerated breakthroughs in technology and equipment, and diversified expansion in application scenarios. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, it is essential to earnestly implement the decisions and arrangements of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, fully recognize the new situation facing the development of China's low-altitude industry, balance development and security, adhere to both policy support and reform innovation, promote the deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, strengthen the leading role of enterprises in innovation, accelerate the cultivation of industrial clusters, and build an intelligent, green, and integrated industrial system, to steadily advance the safe, orderly, and healthy development of the low-altitude industry. The meeting emphasized the need to effectively strengthen top-level planning, carry out planning formulation work well, increase policy support for the innovative development of the low-altitude industry, accelerate preliminary research on standards, and establish a sound industrial standard system. Efforts should be made to firmly build a security foundation, strengthen management in the manufacturing sector, attach great importance to low-altitude radio security, cybersecurity, and data security, and establish a test and verification systems for low-altitude equipment. It is necessary to actively promote integrated innovation, strengthen research on fundamental and common technologies in the industry, deepen the synergy between low-altitude equipment and industries such as new energy and new-generation information technology, and accelerate the empowerment of artificial intelligence. A favorable environment should be vigorously fostered, with orderly expansion of application scenarios, strengthening scenario-driven upgrades of equipment, deepening high-level international cooperation, and consolidating the talent foundation for the industry, to provide strong support for the development of the low-altitude economy as a strategic emerging industry. Heads of relevant departments, subordinate units, and affiliated universities of the Ministry attended the meeting and delivered exchange speeches.

[SMM Platinum and Palladium Weekly Review] This week (February 9 – February 13), the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 opened at 540 yuan/gram and closed at 523.8 yuan/gram, up 30.9 yuan/gram or 6.27% WoW. The weekly highest price was 559.1 yuan/gram, and the lowest was 516 yuan/gram. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 opened at 436.5 yuan/gram and closed at 416.8 yuan/gram, up 9.55 yuan/gram or 2.34% WoW. The weekly highest price was 443 yuan/gram, and the lowest was 411 yuan/gram. In futures trading, the most-traded platinum contract PT2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 36,713 lots, a total turnover of 19.82 billion yuan, and an open interest of 20,073 lots, a decrease of 1,369 lots WoW. The most-traded palladium contract PD2606 recorded a total weekly trading volume of 18,112 lots, a total turnover of 7.801 billion yuan, and an open interest of 7,188 lots, a decrease of 874 lots WoW. Recent fluctuations in platinum and palladium primarily reflected sentiment transmission from the precious metals sector, with significant resonance among gold, silver, platinum, and palladium amid macro factors. The nomination of Wash as Fed Chairman in early February triggered a sharp pullback in the precious metals sector. His hawkish anti-inflation stance, advocating for "interest rate cuts + balance sheet reduction + function reduction," combined with stronger-than-expected US PPI, raised market concerns about medium and long-term support for precious metals. Expectations of balance sheet reduction may boost the US dollar, disrupt precious metals pricing logic, and lead to frequent sector corrections. Domestic and overseas platinum and palladium term structures diverged; after the price drop, strong restocking by domestic automotive catalyst producers steepened the domestic term structure slope. Strategically, Trump plans to launch a $12 billion "Gold Reserve Plan" to build a strategic reserve of critical minerals and a preferential trade zone, intending to set price floors and use tariffs and other border measures for protection, aiming to establish a rule system with internal subsidies and external barriers, excluding non-member countries from core supply chain benefits. USGS data showed the US import dependency for platinum and palladium reached 89% and 57%, respectively, in 2025, with strategic reserve premiums bullish for platinum and palladium. Additionally, attention is needed on details of new managers announced by the LME and US anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Russian unwrought palladium. In the spot market, the approaching Chinese New Year holiday atmosphere intensified. Along with cooling investment enthusiasm in precious metals recently, aside from some end-users' rigid pre-holiday stockpiling needs, the overall spot market showed thin trading.

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This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums. There were no significant macro disturbances during the week. The pullback in the US dollar index led to a rebound in nonferrous metals and the A-share market, but ferrous metals did not follow the trend noticeably. Instead, pressure from bears weighed on finished steel prices. On the spot market, most markets have already entered a holiday shutdown. Spot prices remained basically stable, while market transactions contracted sharply...

[Operating Rates Down Over 20 Percentage Points MoM, Die-Casting Zinc Alloy Enters Chinese New Year Lull] This week, operating rates of die-casting zinc alloy producers fell sharply, mainly due to concentrated holiday arrangements at large plants during the week, leading to a sharp drop in operating rates. It is expected that next week, enterprises still in production will also arrange holidays successively by the end of this week, and operating rates of die-casting zinc alloy producers will decline further...

According to SMM, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, multiple lead-zinc mines in China will enter the conventional production suspension period for the holiday, lasting from one to two weeks. Additionally, some smelters in north China have started their winter break early, with shutdowns lasting two to three months. The supply of lead concentrates in China declined as expected. In the imported ore market, lead concentrate TCs for February remained at -150 to -160 US dollars per dmt. Due to the Chinese New Year holiday, combined with the completion of winter stockpiling by smelters, maintenance shutdowns, and a pause in quotations, market trading activity weakened. This week, approaching the holiday, smelters generally delayed their raw material procurement needs until after the holiday. Precious metal prices consolidated sideways, and the payable indicator for silver contained in lead concentrates showed no significant changes or negotiations. Some smelters adopted a wait-and-see stance temporarily to avoid risks from declining silver processing margins and lower operational expectations. The situation seen in 2026, where smelters "scrambled" for silver-bearing raw materials at the cost of lower TCs, has eased as the overheated precious metals market cooled down. In the short term, TCs for lead concentrates with medium to low silver content remain generally stable.

It was learned that the SMM weekly comprehensive operating rate for lead-acid battery enterprises in five provinces was 47.04% from February 6 to February 12, 2026, down 18.79 percentage points WoW. As the Chinese New Year holiday approached, more migrant workers returned to their hometowns. Most lead-acid battery enterprises had relatively concentrated holidays around the Little New Year in the north and south (February 10-11), which led to a further decline in the weekly operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises this week, with the drop exceeding 18%. Next week, the Chinese market will fully enter the Chinese New Year holiday period, and lead-acid battery enterprises will all suspend production. At that time, the weekly operating rate for lead-acid batteries will drop to the lowest level of the year.

Last week, the overseas rare earth market exhibited distinct characteristics, including accelerated exploration of futures financialization, diversified development of global resource projects, deepened supply chain strategies in major consumer countries, progress in alternative technology R&D, and continuous expansion of international cooperation networks. Next week, as China enters the Chinese New Year holiday, overseas markets will maintain this pace of advancement.