[Tianjin Zinc: Zinc Prices Rose; Downstream Buyers Were Wary of High Prices and Purchased Cautiously] In the Tianjin market, mainstream transactions of #0 zinc ingot were at 25,660-25,920 yuan/mt; Zijin traded at 25,790-26,000 yuan/mt. #1 zinc ingot traded around 25,640-25,850 yuan/mt. Zijin quoted a premium of 30-40 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract; Huxin was quoted at 27,120 yuan/mt. #0 zinc ingot was quoted at a discount of 40-100 yuan/mt against the 2609 contract. Tianjin was quoted at a discount of around 55 yuan/mt versus Shanghai.

SMM Nickel News, August 17: Macro and Market News: (1) The State Administration of Foreign Exchange announced that in 2026 Q2, China recorded a current account surplus of 1,333.7 billion yuan, including a goods trade surplus of 1,906.5 billion yuan, a services trade deficit of 358.4 billion yuan, a primary income deficit of 257.2 billion yuan, and a secondary income surplus of 42.8 billion yuan. In 2026 H1, China recorded a current account surplus of 2,617.4 billion yuan. (2) The PBOC released financial data for July 2026. In the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative growth in aggregate financing to the real economy totaled 2.225 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period last year. At month-end July, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. Spot Market: On August 17, the average SMM price of #1 refined nickel was 129,600 yuan/mt, up 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,400 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day, while the range for China’s mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-500 yuan/mt. Futures Market: After an early-session surge, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) fluctuated at highs, closing the morning session at 128,850 yuan/mt, up 1.0%. Driven by factors including a mild cooling in the US July PPI and a further pullback in rate-hike expectations, base metals posted broad gains, and nickel prices rebounded from last week’s lows. Expectations were that Indonesia’s nickel ore RKAB quotas would be looser, but sulfur prices still stayed high above $1,000/mt, leaving cost support intact. In the short term, the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

On August 17, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

On August 17, the average SMM price of #1 refined nickel was 129,600 yuan/mt, up 1,800 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,400 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the range for China’s mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel was -100-500 yuan/mt.

[8.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] The overall increase in the US Producer Price Index (PPI) in July remained mild, indicating a further easing of inflationary pressures, and expectations for a US Fed interest rate hike in September cooled further. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract plunged sharply in early trading, closing the morning session at 127,300 yuan/mt, down 1.12%. The Indonesia Nickel Miners Association (APNI) recommended keeping the 2026 nickel ore RKAB at 270 million wmt and additionally setting a 30 million wmt strategic buffer, bringing the potential total quota to 300 million wmt. With expectations for looser RKAB quotas, nickel prices are expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and the trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced on August 14, in his address to parliament on the 2027 draft state budget, that Indonesia will launch a Strategic Minerals and Commodities Exchange (Bursa Mineral dan Komoditas Strategis) on January 1, 2027, under the supervision of financial regulator OJK. He framed it as the next stage of the single-window export policy, arguing prices for Indonesian palm oil, nickel, tin, coal and gold have long been set on overseas exchanges using benchmarks Indonesia did not create. The stated aim is to build an Indonesia Reference Price for major export commodities and a deeper, more transparent market with less room for manipulation. He asked parliament to pass the enabling rules quickly. SMM notes implementing rules and scope are not yet defined.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Jamaica and Ghana are negotiating a potential US$60 million bauxite-to-alumina supply arrangement that would revive a trading relationship first proposed more than two decades ago. Under the proposed structure, Jamaican bauxite would be shipped to the Atlantic Alumina Company (ATALCO) refinery in Gramercy, Louisiana, for processing into alumina, before the alumina is exported to Ghana for use in its aluminum industry. The discussions involve Jamaica’s state-owned Jamaica Bauxite Mining (JBM) and Ghana’s integrated aluminum development efforts.

[SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Zinc Prices Fluctuate at Highs; Watch Changes in the LME Structure] Last Friday, LME zinc posted a small bullish candlestick, with various moving averages below providing support, while the upper Bollinger Bands’ upper band formed resistance above. Affected by the unexpected negative US monthly retail sales rate, a weaker US dollar, and the widening LME backwardation structure...

SMM News on August 15: Metals market: Overnight last Friday, base metals in the domestic market mostly rose. SHFE copper rose 0.49%; on a weekly basis, SHFE copper fell 0.31% for the week. SHFE aluminum was flat at 23,945 yuan/mt. SHFE lead fell 0.22%, SHFE zinc rose 0.41%, and SHFE tin rose 0.36%. SHFE nickel edged up 0.07%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures contract fell 0.19%, and the most-traded casting aluminum contract rose 0.24%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals showed mixed performance. Stainless steel fell 0.49%, iron ore fell 0.35%, and rebar fell 0.03%. Hot-rolled coil rose 0.34%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract rose 1.7%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 1.97%. Overnight last Friday, in overseas metals, LME base metals all rose. LME copper rose 0.26%; on a weekly basis, LME copper extended gains for seven consecutive weeks, rising 1.07% for the week. LME aluminum rose 0.22%. LME lead rose 0.26%. LME zinc rose 0.45%. LME tin rose 0.36%. LME nickel rose 0.3%. Overnight last Friday, precious metals : COMEX gold rose 0.26%; COMEX gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 0.73% for the week. COMEX silver fell 0.26%; COMEX silver recorded a second consecutive weekly gain, up 2.09% for the week. Overnight last Friday, the most-traded SHFE gold contract rose 0.6%; SHFE gold posted a fourth consecutive weekly gain, up 1.68% for the week. The most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 0.57%; SHFE silver extended gains for four consecutive weeks, up 3.45% for the week. As of 7:17 on August 15, the overnight closing performance last Friday: Macro front China: [PBOC: Aggregate Social Financing Rose by 22.25 Trillion Yuan in the First Seven Months; M2 Up 7.7% YoY in July] According to preliminary statistics from the PBOC, in the first seven months of 2026, the cumulative increase in aggregate social financing totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, down 174 billion yuan from the same period a year earlier. Among this, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by 1.017 trillion yuan, an increase of 214 billion yuan less YoY; foreign-currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, increased by 169.4 billion yuan, an increase of 241.9 billion yuan more YoY; entrusted loans decreased by 81 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.1 billion yuan more YoY; trust loans decreased by 67.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 226.4 billion yuan more YoY; undiscounted bankers’ acceptances decreased by 178.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 41 billion yuan less YoY; net financing via enterprise bonds was 252 billion yuan, 110 billion yuan more YoY; net financing via government bonds was 776 billion yuan, 115 billion yuan less YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was 406.1 billion yuan, 184.7 billion yuan more YoY. In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. By sector, household loans decreased by 827.1 billion yuan, including a decrease of 928.1 billion yuan in short-term loans and an increase of 101 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; loans to enterprises and public institutions increased by 11 trillion yuan, including an increase of 434 million yuan in short-term loans, an increase of 532 million yuan in medium and long-term loans, and an increase of 119 million yuan in bill financing; loans to non-bank financial institutions decreased by 394.4 billion yuan. At month-end in July, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 35.551 trillion yuan, up 7.7% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 11.546 trillion yuan, up 4% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 1.482 trillion yuan, up 11.6% YoY. In the first seven months, net cash injections totaled 725.5 billion yuan. [Shanghai: Promoting the Momentum-Building of Leading Industries Such as Integrated Circuits, Civil Aviation, Intelligent Vehicles, and High-End Equipment] Today (August 14), Chen Jining, Secretary of the Shanghai Municipal Party Committee, spent the entire day conducting a survey in the Lin-gang Special Area of the China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone and chaired a symposium. Chen noted that the Lin-gang Special Area must always place advanced manufacturing in a prominent position and unswervingly enhance its capacity level and core competitiveness. It should seize opportunities in digital-intelligent and green transformation, and while ensuring project implementation, place greater emphasis on cultivating an industrial ecosystem—fostering industry leaders and high-growth enterprises, planning industrial platforms and enhancing service capabilities, strengthening the resilience and stickiness of industrial development, and promoting the momentum-building of leading industries such as integrated circuits, civil aviation, intelligent vehicles, and high-end equipment. It should leverage the advantage of abundant manufacturing scenarios to advance the digital-intelligent transformation of industry, and increase the application of industrial robots, vertical models, and intelligent agents in key links such as production and manufacturing and equipment operation and maintenance, driving systematic, end-to-end transformation across industrial design, pilot-scale validation, inspection and detection, and marketing and operations. It should optimize the business environment and improve services for enterprises, accelerating the cultivation of world-class enterprises. It should deepen reforms of management systems in development zones, and refine and improve reform plans around key links such as functional positioning, spatial integration, professional services, and assessment and evaluation. (Shanghai Release) US dollar: The US dollar index fell 0.32% overnight last Friday to 99.64. On a weekly basis, the US dollar index rose 0.04% for the week. US retail sales released on Friday fell 0.6% MoM in July, the largest decline in more than a year. Combined with mild inflation data this week, market pricing for a US Fed rate hike in September further collapsed. The US dollar index declined. With a mild CPI on Wednesday, zero MoM growth in PPI on Thursday, and a downside surprise in retail sales on Friday, the three-hit combination drove the probability of a September rate hike down from 75% at month-end in July to around 25%. CME FedWatch showed that 67% of traders bet on no change in September. The focus of market pricing has shifted from “how many more rate hikes” to “whether this rate-hike cycle has already ended.” (Wallstreetcn) The US Department of Commerce announced on Friday that July retail sales fell 0.6% MoM, the biggest decline in more than a year, versus market expectations of a slight increase. Core control group sales excluding autos, building materials, and gas stations fell 0.4%, the weakest performance since January 2025. The preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for August released the same day came in at just 51, well below the expected 54.5. (Wallstreetcn) As households grew concerned about worsening business conditions and rising inflation, US consumer sentiment fell for the first time in three months. According to survey data released by the University of Michigan on Friday, the preliminary August consumer sentiment index dropped to 51, below the final July reading of 55.2. The median economist forecast was 55. Consumers expect prices to rise 4.3% over the next year, edging up MoM and well above the level before the Iran conflict broke out in February. They also expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% over the next five to 10 years. After improving for two consecutive months, consumers’ confidence in both the short-term and long-term economic outlook deteriorated. Since the start of the year, consumers’ expectations for the labour market have changed relatively little. The survey showed consumers are increasingly worried about inflation, while concerns about unemployment have eased. The survey covered responses collected from July 28 to August 10. During this period, the US national average gasoline price hovered above $4 per gallon. Another report released on Friday showed US retail sales in July posted the biggest drop in more than a year, as consumers cut back on purchases of autos and from online stores. (Jinshi Data APP) US Fed’s Goolsbee said he supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged in July. He noted that the latest two productivity readings were not ideal, and if productivity continues to weaken, the US Fed may need to reassess market expectations for artificial intelligence (AI). Goolsbee said the latest CPI data were encouraging, but more data are needed before making a judgment; persistent weakness in consumption is concerning, though the current retail sales weakness is only a one-month performance. Meanwhile, US GDP and the labour market were basically stable overall. (From the Wallstreetcn APP) According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through September is 67.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 32.5%. The probability that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged through October is 53.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 39.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 6.8%. (Jin10 Data APP) On the macro front: This week will see the release of data including China’s July total retail sales (YoY), China’s July industrial output above designated size (YoY), Canada’s July CPI (MoM), the US August New York Fed Manufacturing Index, the US August NAHB Housing Market Index, the UK three-month ILO unemployment rate for June, the UK July unemployment rate, the UK July claimant count, Germany’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the Eurozone’s August ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, the weekly change in US ADP employment for the week ending August 1, the annualized total US July housing starts, total US July building permits, the US July import price index (MoM), the US July industrial production (MoM), the US July pending home sales index (MoM), the UK July CPI (MoM), the UK July retail price index (MoM), the Eurozone’s June seasonally adjusted current account, the Eurozone’s final July CPI (YoY), the Eurozone’s final July CPI (MoM), the share of Swift RMB in global payments for China in July, China’s one-year loan prime rate through August 20, Australia’s July seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany’s July PPI (MoM), Switzerland’s July trade balance, the UK August CBI industrial trends orders balance, US initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15, the US August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, the US July Conference Board Leading Index (MoM), the UK August Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, Japan’s July core CPI (YoY), the UK July public sector net borrowing, the UK July seasonally adjusted retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for France, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for Germany, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the Eurozone, the preliminary August manufacturing PMI for the UK, the preliminary August services PMI for the UK, Canada’s June retail sales (MoM), the preliminary August S&P Global manufacturing PMI for the US, the preliminary global services PMI, and the preliminary August consumer confidence index for the Eurozone, among others. In addition, this week also required attention to: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) releasing the monthly report on residential selling prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities; the State Council Information Office holding a press conference on national economic performance; ECB President Lagarde attending the “Global Economic Outlook” session at the World Economic Forum International Business Council (IBC) meeting; the US Fed releasing the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; and Hang Seng Indexes Company announcing the results of the Hang Seng Index Series review for 2026 Q2. On crude oil: Overnight on Friday, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 1.42% and Brent up 2.01%. On a weekly basis, WTI futures rose 5.4% for the week, while Brent posted a positive weekly close, up 6.31% for the week. International oil prices rose as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly ground to a halt. Two vessels were attacked in the Strait of Hormuz that day, bringing passage to a near standstill; the US said it could maintain a maritime blockade of Iran indefinitely, and Trump said he would impose severe economic strikes on Iran. Capital Economics estimated that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz were currently only about 4 million to 5 million barrels per day, far below pre-conflict levels. Prompt Brent maintained a spot premiums structure, indicating continued tightness in physical supply. Capacity at three of the world’s four major refining hubs was damaged, and the surge in refined product prices was being directly passed through to end consumers. (Wallstreetcn) Traders said that as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed, Asian refiners were seeking alternative supplies for delivery later this year, and at least four Asian refiners bought US crude oil this week. Both the US and Iran claimed control of the Strait of Hormuz, and vessel traffic through the strait fell below this month’s average in the latter half of the week. With no sign of a near-term resumption of smooth shipping through the strait, tightening fuel supplies will lift refining margins, prompting refiners to lock in crude oil inventory needed for the coming months from markets outside the Gulf region. South Korea’s GS Caltex bought 2 million barrels of Mars crude from Shell, plan to deliver in November. Traders said the cargo was priced at a premium of about $13-$14 per barrel to the October Dubai benchmark price. Japan’s third-largest refiner, Cosmo Energy Holdings, bought Mars crude from Trafigura; Japan’s largest refiner, ENEOS, purchased 2 million barrels of WTI crude from Trafigura, plan to deliver in November, at a premium of more than $10 per barrel to October WTI prices. (Jinshi Data APP) US Energy Information Administration (EIA): US oil production is expected to average 13.83 million barrels per day in August, versus 13.82 million barrels per day in July; September is expected to average 13.77 million barrels per day. (Jinshi Data APP) Notably, due to position rolling and contract rollover, NYMEX New York crude oil September futures will complete the last floor trading at 2:30 on August 21 and the last electronic trading at 5:00 a.m. Please pay attention to the exchange’s expiry and rollover notices to manage risk. In addition, the expiry time for US oil contracts on some trading platforms is usually one day earlier than the official NYMEX schedule; please pay close attention. Recommended Reading:

Futures: Last Friday, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,890.5/mt, drifted lower during the Asian session, and after dipping to $1,881.0/mt, consolidated in a narrow range at low levels. It then gradually rebounded during the European session, and surged late in the session to a high of $1,896.5/mt, finally closing at $1,895.5/mt, up 0.26%. Open interest increased by 3,720 lots to 183,969 lots on the day. On Friday night, the SHFE lead 2609 contract opened at 15,840 yuan/mt in the night session. After briefly touching a high of 15,855 yuan/mt early on, it quickly fell, bottoming at 15,740 yuan/mt, then consolidated and rebounded. In the latter half, it traded in the 15,820-15,840 yuan/mt range, and finally closed at 15,805 yuan/mt, down 0.22%. Night-session open interest decreased by 1,185 lots to 37,951 lots. It should be noted that the 2608 contract was in the delivery period. Prices and open interest of near-month contracts were susceptible to disruptions from delivery and contract rollover, and the subsequent trend of the 2609 contract still required close tracking of the pace of fund position shifting. Overall, after SHFE lead retreated from highs, it had yet to show clear rebound momentum. On the macro front: The situation in the Middle East continued to escalate. Iran said US forces had been expelled and were not allowed to enter the strait; Syrian sources said Yemen’s Houthi forces launched an attack on a US drone; and the Israel Defense Forces launched strikes on southern Lebanon over the weekend. Rising geopolitical tensions could lift crude oil and inflation expectations, and affect risk appetite for nonferrous metals via the US dollar and expectations for US Fed policy. US President Trump demanded a significant reduction in the scale of US–South Korea joint military exercises. Today, focus was on the impact of Middle East developments and crude oil price changes on macro sentiment. PBOC: In the first seven months, cumulative growth in aggregate financing to the real economy totaled 22.25 trillion yuan, and RMB loans increased by 10.38 trillion yuan. National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC): Starting from 24:00 on August 14, China’s retail price caps for gasoline and diesel were lowered by 230 yuan/mt and 220 yuan/mt, respectively. Zhongwei Semiconductor: Net profit in 2026 H1 was 172 million yuan, up 98.48% YoY. Spot fundamentals: SHFE lead reversed and pulled back, and suppliers’ willingness to sell declined somewhat, while quotations for warrant cargoes also decreased. In addition, EXW cargoes from primary lead smelters were quoted in line with the market, with mainstream producing areas quoted at parity against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works, and discounted cargoes decreased somewhat. For secondary lead, smelters’ willingness to quote declined, market circulating cargoes decreased, and some smelters held back from selling at low prices; secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. Downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed. Approaching the weekend, some rigid-demand restocking increased somewhat, but overall wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and spot market transactions saw limited improvement. Inventory: On August 14, LME lead inventory fell by 1,700 mt, or 0.41%, to 412,675 mt; according to SMM, as of August 13, SMM five-location social inventory of lead ingots stood at 75,200 mt, up 2,400 mt from August 10. Today’s Lead Price Forecast: This week marks the delivery period for the SHFE lead 2608 contract. Ahead of delivery, lead ingots saw an on-schedule inventory buildup, dragging lead prices lower. However, it is worth noting that maintenance among primary lead enterprises increased in mid-to-late August, mainly among delivery brand enterprises, which may support a rebound in lead prices. Meanwhile, consumption in the lead-acid battery market was mediocre, while just-in-time procurement demand from downstream enterprises was moderate, which can be regarded as a neutral factor. In summary, SMM expects lead prices to rebound after probing lows.