[Lead-Acid Battery Enterprise Dynamics] According to data from Tianyancha APP, Shengyang Co., Ltd. (002580) has newly obtained a utility model patent authorization titled "A Wide Tab Grid for High-Rate Batteries". The patent application number is CN202520155826.9, and the authorization date is February 10, 2026. Since the beginning of this year, Shengyang Co., Ltd. has newly obtained 7 patent authorizations. Based on the company's 2025 interim report financial data, the company's R&D investment in H1 2025 was 40.4594 million yuan, up 0.07% YoY.

China Communications Construction Real Estate sold its entire real estate development business in a package deal for 1 yuan. *ST Zhongdi (000736.SZ) released a report (draft) on the material asset sale and related party transaction on June 16, stating that the company intends to transfer the assets and liabilities related to its real estate development business to its controlling shareholder, China Communications Real Estate Group Co., Ltd., at a transaction price of 1 yuan. According to the restructuring draft, the assets to be transferred cover the entire chain of real estate development business, including controlling and participating stakes in real estate development enterprises, corresponding receivables, and liabilities. Additionally, according to the asset appraisal report, as of December 31, 2024, the net book value of the target assets was -3.919 billion yuan, which was appraised at -2.976 billion yuan, representing an appraisal increase of 24.06%. "From the financial data disclosed by China Communications Construction Real Estate, it can be seen that the company is transferring a massive package of negative assets, which explains why the transaction is priced at a symbolic 1 yuan. The core objective is to divest the heavy burden of negative assets," noted Yan Yuejin, Deputy Dean of the E-House China Research Institute. "The 1-yuan pricing is essentially about divesting negative assets," a senior investment banker commented. "To some extent, this is equivalent to the parent company, China Communications Construction Group, providing support to the publicly listed firm by bearing a significant amount of negative assets." Regarding this material asset sale, China Communications Construction Real Estate stated that the real estate development industry, in which the target assets are engaged, has high capital demands and a large scale of liabilities. After the completion of this transaction, the relevant target assets will no longer be included in the consolidated financial statements of the publicly listed firm, which will transition from a "heavy" to a "light" model. It is expected that the total assets and revenue scale of the publicly listed firm will decrease significantly. Industry insiders pointed out that behind this transaction priced at just 1 yuan lies a central state-owned enterprise real estate company deeply mired in losses and on the brink of delisting, undertaking a "drastic" strategic retreat to survive. "In recent years, the real estate market has undergone continuous and profound adjustments, and the real estate development business has dragged down the performance of some publicly listed firms," said Liu Shui, Director of Corporate Research at the China Index Academy. China Communications Construction Real Estate, a central state-owned enterprise, has also been dragged down by its development business, not only incurring losses for two consecutive years but also facing delisting risks. Financial reports show that in 2022, 2023, and 2024, the net profits attributable to the parent company of China Communications Construction Real Estate were 34 million yuan, -1.611 billion yuan, and -5.179 billion yuan, respectively. Alongside the decline in net profit, the sales scale of China Communications Construction Real Estate has also shrunk significantly. In 2022, 2023, and 2024, the sales amounts of China Communications Construction Real Estate were 45.882 billion yuan, 37.3 billion yuan, and 15.64 billion yuan, respectively. Financial data released by the company showed that as of December 31, 2024, CCCC Real Estate had total assets of RMB 107.698 billion and net assets attributable to shareholders of publicly listed firms of -RMB 3.579 billion. In accordance with the relevant provisions of the "Stock Listing Rules," its shares were subject to delisting risk warnings (*ST) on April 16, 2025. "After two consecutive years of losses, if it cannot completely reverse its fundamentals in the short term, delisting is almost a foregone conclusion. Divesting heavy-asset burdens is a crucial step in winning a breathing space," said the aforementioned investment banker. "Divesting loss-making assets through this transaction will enhance the company's asset quality and create conditions for subsequent transformation and development. This transaction can improve the profitability and sustainable operating capacity of publicly listed firms and mitigate the delisting risks of publicly listed firms," said CCCC Real Estate. After shedding the heavy burden of real estate development, CCCC Real Estate announced that it would shift to "asset-light" operations. CCCC Real Estate stated that before this restructuring, the main business of the publicly listed firm was real estate development and sales. Through this restructuring, it will focus on asset-light businesses such as property services and asset management and operations (including commercial management and self-held property leasing) in the future, achieving a strategic transformation to an asset-light operating model. "Divesting the real estate development business can not only reduce the company's liabilities but also mitigate credit risks associated with the heavy-asset nature of real estate development," Liu Shui believed. Shifting the focus to an asset-light model can achieve higher profit margins and reduce the company's exposure to cyclical risks in the real estate market. However, analysts pointed out that divestment will also lead to a significant reduction in total assets and revenue scale. The key to the company's subsequent performance lies in whether the new asset-light engine can quickly take over. "For CCCC Real Estate, which is backed by a central state-owned enterprise but is mired in delisting risks, divesting its real estate business is just the beginning. Its path to revival largely depends on whether it can transform itself in the fiercely competitive red ocean of property services and asset management," said Yan Yuejin.

[6.17 Morning Meeting Minutes] LME nickel prices declined slightly this week. Demand side, despite signs of recovery in nickel salt demand MoM in June, the overall demand remained in a sluggish phase. Affected by the presence of some raw material inventory and weak order demand, the inquiry and transaction activity of precursor companies for nickel salt were low during the traditional procurement period this week.

SMM Nickel News on June 16: Macro News: (1) The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) announced today that in May, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4,132.6 billion yuan, up 6.4% YoY. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 3,731.6 billion yuan, up 7.0% YoY. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 20,317.1 billion yuan, up 5.0% YoY. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales of consumer goods were 18,432.4 billion yuan, up 5.6% YoY. (2) The latest financial data released by the central bank showed that the growth rate of broad money supply (M2) remained basically stable, and the growth rate of aggregate social financing remained at a relatively high level. At the end of May, the outstanding aggregate social financing was 426.16 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In May, the incremental aggregate social financing was 2.29 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan. M2 grew by 7.9% YoY, narrow money (M1) grew by 2.3% YoY, and the balance of RMB loans grew by 7.1% YoY, remaining at around 8% after adjusting for the impact of local debt replacement. Based on historical patterns, economic activities tend to be more active in June, leading to a corresponding increase in financing demand. It is expected that the growth of financial aggregates will remain stable in the next stage. Spot Market: Today, the SMM 1# refined nickel price was 119,400-122,050 yuan/mt, with an average price of 120,725 yuan/mt, down 775 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premiums quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 2,400-2,600 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 2,500 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The quotation range for spot premiums and discounts of electrodeposited nickel from mainstream domestic brands was 0-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (NI2507) opened lower and fluctuated upward during the night session last Friday, but the price continued to weaken during today's daytime session, dropping to a low of 119,000 yuan/mt. As of 11:30, SHFE nickel closed at 119,690 yuan/mt, down 340 yuan/mt or 0.28% from the previous trading day. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound between 118,000-123,000 yuan/mt. If Indonesia tightens its nickel ore policies, it may trigger a phased rebound. However, in the medium and long term, the surplus pressure is difficult to resolve, coupled with a lack of incremental demand, limiting the upside room for nickel prices.

The latest financial data released by the central bank showed that the growth rate of broad money supply (M2) remained basically stable, and the growth rate of total social financing maintained a relatively high level. At month-end May, the outstanding total social financing stood at 426.16 trillion yuan, up 8.7% YoY, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In May, the incremental total social financing reached 2.29 trillion yuan, with an increase of 224.7 billion yuan YoY. M2 grew by 7.9% YoY, narrow money (M1) grew by 2.3% YoY, and the outstanding RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% YoY, remaining at around 8% after adjusting for the impact of local government debt replacement. Based on historical patterns, economic activities tend to be more active in June, leading to a corresponding increase in financing demand. It is expected that the growth of the total financial aggregate will remain stable in the next phase.

Today, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the financial data for May. As of month-end May 2025, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% YoY. In the first five months, the net cash injection was 306.4 billion yuan. In terms of social financing, the outstanding social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan as of month-end May 2025, up 8.7% YoY. From January to May, the incremental social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, with a YoY increase of 3.83 trillion yuan. In May alone, the incremental social financing scale was 2.29 trillion yuan, with a YoY increase of 224.7 billion yuan. "The rapid growth in social financing scale is mainly driven by direct financing such as government bonds and corporate bonds," an authoritative expert explained to a reporter from Cailian Press. Among them, there has been a significant change in corporate bond financing. "Since Q2, the overall cost of corporate bond issuance has shown a downward trend, remaining at a low level. In May, the average yield to maturity of 5-year AAA-rated corporate bonds was 1.97%, further declining from the already low level in April. Against the backdrop of low interest rates, enterprises have increased their bond financing efforts, which helps reduce overall financing costs." In addition, a bank account manager also reflected to a reporter from Cailian Press that bank customers are now generally more concerned about interest rate adjustments. In May, the PBOC lowered the policy interest rate, and the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which serves as the benchmark for loan market pricing, also declined accordingly. Many enterprises found the interest rates more favorable, and their willingness to withdraw funds increased significantly. "Liquid Money" Growth Accelerates, Personal Mortgage Loan Disbursements Increase Among the financial data for May, there was also a notable change in the growth rate of M1. As of month-end May, M1 was up 2.3% YoY. In response, an authoritative expert frankly told a reporter from Cailian Press that currently, the M1 statistical scope includes currency in circulation (M0), current deposits of units and individuals, and customer reserves of non-bank payment institutions (such as WeChat Wallet and Alipay balances). Compared with time deposits in bank accounts, these are considered "liquid money" that is more convenient for payment transactions. In May, the growth rate of this "liquid money" accelerated significantly. In the view of the authoritative expert, the accelerated growth of "liquid money" reflects that the recent package of financial support measures has effectively boosted market confidence, with signs of recovery and improvement in economic activities such as investment and consumption. Another indicator that also proves the change in the heat of economic activities is personal loans. Data shows that a banker reflected to a reporter from Cailian Press that with the continued recovery of the local real estate market transactions, personal mortgage loan disbursements have increased. The Substitution Effect of Bonds on Loans Continues to Manifest Regarding the loan data that the market is concerned about, an authoritative expert told a reporter from Cailian Press that nearly 90% of the social financing scale consists of bonds and loans. Although there are differences in their applicable scenarios, to a certain extent, they can substitute and complement each other, jointly creating a favorable financial aggregate environment for stable economic growth. In fact, recently, the substitution effect of bonds for loans has also been quite evident. In response, experts have interpreted this as follows: On the one hand, the issuance of special refinancing bonds to repay bank loans has kept loan growth at around 8% after adjusting for the relevant impacts. "Special refinancing bonds issued for debt resolution exceeded 2 trillion yuan in Q4 last year, and over 1.6 trillion yuan have been issued since the beginning of this year. Preliminary estimates from market surveys suggest that the corresponding loans replaced amount to approximately 2.3 trillion yuan, with loan growth remaining at around 8% at the end of May after adjustment. The aforementioned experts frankly stated that in the short term, the debt replacement of financing platforms to repay bank loans may affect the total credit volume. However, in the long term, it helps mitigate local debt risks, freeing up more local fiscal resources to benefit people's livelihoods, promote development, and enhance the momentum of economic growth. On the other hand, government bonds substitute for bank loans. Some market experts told a Caixin reporter that there is a certain overlap in the investment directions of some government bonds and bank loans. For instance, in infrastructure projects, both special bonds and bank loans can serve as funding sources. In projects involving the acquisition of existing commercial housing for use as affordable housing, in addition to bank loans providing support, special bonds have recently been added to the policy toolkit and are currently being gradually implemented. Several banks in an eastern province told a Caixin reporter that since the beginning of this year, fiscal policies have become more proactive, with an increase in the issuance of local government bonds. Local governments and related enterprises are more inclined to use special bonds to meet the funding needs of project construction, which has a certain substitution effect on bank loans. Data shows that among the sources of fixed asset investment funds from January to April this year, national budgetary funds, including government bonds, grew by 16.7% YoY, significantly higher than the YoY growth rates of self-raised funds (3.9%), domestic loans (2.8%), and other funding sources (-4.2%). In addition, corporate bonds have also substituted for bank loans to some extent. Authoritative experts analyzed to a Caixin reporter that, in addition to interest rate impacts, some trending and institutional factors are also influencing enterprises' choices of financing methods. A series of supportive policies have been continuously introduced in recent years, facilitating smoother access for enterprises to issue bonds, particularly showing more positive changes in bond financing for private and technology innovation enterprises. In early May this year, the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued multiple measures to support the issuance of technology innovation bonds. As these measures gradually take effect, enterprises will find it more convenient to issue technology innovation bonds for financing. "Therefore, against the backdrop of increasingly diversified financing channels and accelerated development of direct financing, the scale of social financing is a more comprehensive measure of financial support than loans alone."Authoritative experts have interpreted it as follows.

According to preliminary statistics from the People's Bank of China, China's aggregate financing to the real economy (AFRE) increased by 18.63 trillion yuan from January to May, compared to 16.3429 trillion yuan from January to April. New RMB loans reached 10.68 trillion yuan from January to May, lower than the estimated 10.9597 trillion yuan but higher than the 10.0597 trillion yuan from January to April. As of the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, up 12.1% YoY. Net cash injection in the first five months amounted to 306.4 billion yuan. Financial Statistics Report for May 2025 I. Broad Money Grew by 7.9% As of the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, up 7.9% YoY. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up 2.3% YoY. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, up 12.1% YoY. Net cash injection in the first five months amounted to 306.4 billion yuan. II. RMB Loans Increased by 10.68 Trillion Yuan in the First Five Months As of the end of May, the balance of RMB and foreign currency loans was 270.2 trillion yuan, up 6.7% YoY. The balance of RMB loans was 266.32 trillion yuan, up 7.1% YoY. RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan in the first five months. By sector, household loans increased by 572.4 billion yuan, including a decrease of 262.4 billion yuan in short-term loans and an increase of 834.7 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans. Loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 9.8 trillion yuan, including an increase of 3.14 trillion yuan in short-term loans, 6.16 trillion yuan in medium and long-term loans, and 364.5 billion yuan in bill financing. Loans to non-banking financial institutions increased by 135.7 billion yuan. As of the end of May, the balance of foreign currency loans was $539.4 billion, down 16.3% YoY. Foreign currency loans decreased by $2.7 billion in the first five months. III. RMB Deposits Increased by 14.73 Trillion Yuan in the First Five Months As of the end of May, the balance of RMB and foreign currency deposits was 324.08 trillion yuan, up 8.3% YoY. The balance of RMB deposits was 316.96 trillion yuan, up 8.1% YoY. RMB deposits increased by 14.73 trillion yuan in the first five months. Specifically, household deposits increased by 8.3 trillion yuan, non-financial corporate deposits decreased by 7.3 billion yuan, fiscal deposits increased by 2.07 trillion yuan, and deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased by 3.07 trillion yuan. As of the end of May, the balance of foreign currency deposits was $990.1 billion, up 19% YoY. Foreign currency deposits increased by $137.2 billion in the first five months. IV. The Monthly Weighted Average Interbank Offered Rate and Pledged Bond Repo Rate in the RMB Interbank Market in May Were 1.55% and 1.56%, Respectively In May, the total turnover in the RMB interbank market through interbank lending, cash bonds, and repos was 167.2 trillion yuan, with a daily average turnover of 8.8 trillion yuan, up 14.9% YoY. Among them, the daily average turnover of interbank lending decreased by 8.6% YoY, the daily average turnover of cash bonds increased by 5% YoY, and the daily average turnover of pledged repo increased by 19.1% YoY. In May, the weighted average interest rate of interbank lending was 1.55%, which was 0.18 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points lower than the previous month and the same period last year, respectively. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repo was 1.56%, which was 0.16 percentage points and 0.26 percentage points lower than the previous month and the same period last year, respectively. V. In May, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under current accounts was RMB 13.1 trillion, and the cross-border RMB settlement amount under direct investment was RMB 6.1 trillion. In May, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under current accounts was RMB 13.1 trillion, including RMB 9.9 trillion for trade in goods, RMB 3.2 trillion for trade in services, and other current accounts; the cross-border RMB settlement amount under direct investment was RMB 6.1 trillion, including RMB 2 trillion for outward direct investment and RMB 4.1 trillion for foreign direct investment. Report on Statistical Data of the Stock of Social Financing Scale in May 2025 Preliminary statistics showed that the cumulative increment of the social financing scale in the first five months of 2025 was RMB 186.3 trillion, an increase of RMB 38.3 trillion compared with the same period last year. Among them, RMB loans issued to the real economy increased by RMB 103.8 trillion, up RMB 112.3 billion YoY; foreign currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, decreased by RMB 96.3 billion, with a larger decrease of RMB 169 billion YoY; entrusted loans decreased by RMB 11.3 billion, with a smaller decrease of RMB 80.2 billion YoY; trust loans increased by RMB 62.7 billion, with a smaller increase of RMB 172.3 billion YoY; unaccepted bankers' acceptances increased by RMB 134.3 billion, up RMB 166.2 billion YoY; net corporate bond financing was RMB 908.7 billion, a decrease of RMB 288.4 billion YoY; net government bond financing was RMB 6.31 trillion, up RMB 3.81 trillion YoY; and domestic equity financing by non-financial enterprises was RMB 150.4 billion, up RMB 44.4 billion YoY. Report on Statistical Data of the Stock of Social Financing Scale in May 2025 Preliminary statistics showed that the stock of the social financing scale was RMB 426.16 trillion at the end of May 2025, up 8.7% YoY. Among them, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy was RMB 262.86 trillion, up 7% YoY; the balance of foreign currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, was RMB 1.19 trillion, down 31.5% YoY; the balance of entrusted loans was RMB 11.22 trillion, up 0.4% YoY; the balance of trust loans was RMB 4.36 trillion, up 5.4% YoY; the balance of unaccepted bankers' acceptances was RMB 2.27 trillion, down 7.4% YoY; the balance of corporate bonds was RMB 32.91 trillion, up 3.4% YoY; the balance of government bonds was RMB 87.39 trillion, up 20.9% YoY; and the balance of domestic equity of non-financial enterprises was RMB 11.87 trillion, up 2.9% YoY. In terms of structure, the balance of RMB loans issued to the real economy accounted for 61.7% of the outstanding social financing stock in the same period at the end of May, down 1 percentage point YoY; the balance of foreign currency loans issued to the real economy, converted into RMB, accounted for 0.3%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY; the balance of entrusted loans accounted for 2.6%, down 0.3 percentage point YoY; the balance of trust loans accounted for 1%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY; the balance of undiscounted bankers' acceptances accounted for 0.5%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY; the balance of corporate bonds accounted for 7.7%, down 0.4 percentage point YoY; the balance of government bonds accounted for 20.5%, up 2.1 percentage points YoY; and the balance of domestic stocks of non-financial enterprises accounted for 2.8%, down 0.1 percentage point YoY. Recommended readings: 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 16.34 trillion yuan, new loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan from January to April, M2 increased by 8% YoY in April 》Breakdown of April's financial data: Government and corporate bonds boost social financing, with a trending shift in credit structure 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 15.18 trillion yuan in Q1, new RMB loans increased by 9.78 trillion yuan, M2 increased by 7% YoY in March 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 9.29 trillion yuan, new RMB loans increased by 6.14 trillion yuan in the first two months, M2 increased by 7% YoY in February 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 7.06 trillion yuan in January, with "full-throttle" credit extension, M2 increased by 7% YoY in January 》PBOC: Total social financing increased by 32.26 trillion yuan in 2024, M2 increased by 7.3% YoY in December 》PBOC makes a major announcement! Regarding macroeconomic policies and support for the capital market... 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 29.4 trillion yuan, new loans increased by 17.1 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, M2 increased by 7.1% YoY in November 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 27.06 trillion yuan in the first 10 months, M2 increased by 7.5% YoY in October 》Supportive tools for the capital market take effect, with M1 and M2 growth rates stabilizing and rebounding, and recent macroeconomic control strategies undergoing adaptive changes 》September's financial data released: Factors such as an increase in securities clients' margins drove a rebound in M2 growth, with overall stable social financing growth 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 21.9 trillion yuan in the first eight months, M2 increased by 6.3% YoY in August 》PBOC: Maintaining price stability and promoting a mild rebound in prices are important considerations for monetary policy 》PBOC: Social financing increased by 18.87 trillion yuan, RMB loans increased by 13.53 trillion yuan in the first seven months 》August's financial data released: Is there still "water squeezing" in financial data?Expert Interpretations Are Here! 》PBOC: In H1, the incremental social financing was RMB 18.1 trillion, with RMB 13.27 trillion increase in RMB loans; M2 grew 6.2% YoY in June 》June's financial data released: How to interpret the continued slowdown in the growth rate of some indicators? Authoritative experts discuss the "side effects" of the "scale complex" in total financial aggregates 》PBOC: In the first five months, the cumulative increase in social financing was RMB 14.8 trillion, with RMB 11.14 trillion increase in RMB loans; M2 grew 7% YoY in May 》Why are May's financial data worth noting, given the optimization of social financing structure and the possible underestimation of M1 growth rate? 》PBOC: In the first four months, the cumulative increase in social financing was RMB 12.73 trillion, with RMB 10.19 trillion increase in RMB loans; M2 grew 7.2% YoY in April 》In Q1, new social financing was RMB 12.93 trillion, with RMB 9.46 trillion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 8.3% YoY in March 》What impact did the steady growth of social financing, the moderate decline in financing costs, and the regulation of idle capital circulation and manual interest adjustments have on April's financial data? 》Latest financial data released: M2 and the stock of social financing grew 8.7% and 9.0% YoY, respectively, at the end of February. Let's see how authoritative experts interpret it! 》In the first two months, social financing and new RMB loans reached the second-highest levels for the same period in history, with M2 growing 8.7% YoY in February 》In January 2024, new social financing was RMB 6.5 trillion, with RMB 4.92 trillion increase in new loans; M2 grew 8.7% YoY 》PBOC: In December, the incremental social financing was RMB 1.94 trillion, with RMB 1.17 trillion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 9.7% YoY 》PBOC: In November, the incremental social financing was RMB 2.45 trillion, with RMB 1.09 trillion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 10% YoY 》November's financial data released: The scale of social financing continued to increase YoY, and the credit support for the real economy remained stable 》Will trillion-yuan government bonds "prop up" October's monetary and credit data? The market expects overall social financing to be strong but credit to be weak, with RRR cut expectations still brewing 》PBOC: In October, the incremental social financing was RMB 1.85 trillion, with RMB 738.4 billion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 10.3% YoY 》PBOC: In September, the incremental social financing was RMB 4.12 trillion, with RMB 2.31 trillion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 10.3% YoY 》PBOC makes a significant statement! Discussing the Sino-US interest rate spread, September's financial data, mortgage rates on existing home loans, and more... 》General Administration of Customs: China's imports and exports showed positive growth in the first three quarters, with September's monthly figure hitting a new high for the year 》PPI and CPI data have improved for three consecutive months. Experts: The improvement in prices is further confirmed, and it is expected that the YoY improvement trend in PPI will continue 》Interpretation by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): In September, CPI operated steadily, PPI's YoY decline narrowed for three consecutive months, and both increased MoM 》In September, the export value of mobile phones doubled MoM, and the YoY growth rate of automobile exports continued to lead 》PBOC: In August, the incremental social financing was RMB 3.12 trillion, with RMB 1.36 trillion increase in new RMB loans; M2 grew 10.6% YoY 》PBOC: Act decisively when the time is right to resolutely guard against the risk of excessive exchange rate fluctuations!The US dollar plunged against the offshore Chinese yuan 》PBOC: In August, the total social financing (TSF) was 528.2 billion yuan, and new yuan-denominated loans reached 345.9 billion yuan. M2 was up 10.7% YoY 》PBOC: In June, TSF and new yuan-denominated loans significantly exceeded expectations. M2 was up 11.3% YoY 》PBOC: In May, the increase in TSF was 1.56 trillion yuan, 331.2 billion yuan more than the previous month 》PBOC: In May, yuan-denominated loans increased by 1.36 trillion yuan, compared to the previous value of 718.8 billion yuan 》PBOC: In May, yuan-denominated deposits increased by 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.58 trillion yuan 》PBOC: In April, the increase in TSF was 1.22 trillion yuan, and new yuan-denominated loans reached 718.8 billion yuan. M2 was up 12.4% YoY 》PBOC: In Q1, yuan-denominated deposits increased by 15.39 trillion yuan, and loans increased by 10.6 trillion yuan 》[Major News] In February, the growth rate of M2 hit a seven-year high, while new yuan-denominated loans and TSF both reached record highs for the same period in history, exceeding expectations! 》In January, new yuan-denominated loans hit a record high! M2 was up 12.6% YoY, and new TSF reached 5.98 trillion yuan

[New RMB Deposits Exceed 2 Trillion Yuan in May, Divergence in Deposit and Loan Growth Attributed to Three Factors] The latest financial data released by the People's Bank of China on June 13 showed that new RMB loans reached nearly 620 billion yuan in May, while new RMB deposits approached 2.18 trillion yuan. Regarding the divergence in the monthly growth of deposits and loans, authoritative experts pointed out that this primarily reflects the diversification of financial institutions' assets and changes in the financing structure. Firstly, it is necessary to view deposit and loan growth from a longer-term perspective. Secondly, it is essential to consider both on-balance-sheet deposits and off-balance-sheet wealth management products. Thirdly, the asset channels that generate bank liabilities have also become more diversified.

Western Gold (601069.SH) plans to invest 1.655 billion yuan to acquire 100% equity in Xinjiang Meisheng Mining Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Xinjiang Meisheng"), a subsidiary of its controlling shareholder. Upon completion of the transaction, the company will increase its gold ore resources in mines by nearly 2.5 times, and the mine is expected to commence production in the second half of this year. Western Gold issued an announcement this evening, stating that the company and its controlling shareholder, Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal Industry (Group) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal"), had signed the "Cash Purchase of Assets Agreement" on May 7. Today, the two parties signed the "Supplemental Agreement (I) to the Cash Purchase of Assets Agreement" to acquire 100% equity in Xinjiang Meisheng held by Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal using its own funds and loans, with a transaction consideration of approximately 1.655 billion yuan, representing a premium of 1,421.66% compared to the book value. The company stated that Xinjiang Meisheng is currently expected to commence production in the second half of 2025. To fulfill the commitments made by Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal earlier, properly address potential horizontal competition issues, and given Western Gold's optimistic outlook on the development prospects of the mine project, both parties agreed that Western Gold would acquire 100% equity in Xinjiang Meisheng held by Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal in cash. Financial data shows that Xinjiang Meisheng achieved operating revenues of 276,700 yuan and 0 yuan in 2024 (audited) and Q1 2025 (unaudited), respectively, with net losses of 35.943 million yuan and 14.1621 million yuan. The announcement revealed that after Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal acquired 100% equity in Xinjiang Meisheng in 2021, Xinjiang Meisheng obtained ownership of the Katebaasu Gold-Copper Polymetallic Mine Project in Xinyuan County. Since the completion of the acquisition by Xinjiang Nonferrous Metal, Xinjiang Meisheng has not engaged in production or business activities, and thus has not generated any operating revenue from such activities. In terms of asset valuation, the asset-based approach was adopted for this transaction. As of December 31, 2024, the book value of Xinjiang Meisheng's net assets was 109 million yuan, with an assessed value of 1.655 billion yuan, resulting in an appreciation of 1.546 billion yuan. The appreciation primarily originated from intangible assets, with a book value of 1.397 billion yuan and an assessed value of 2.946 billion yuan, representing an appreciation rate of 110.89%. Based on the asset valuation report for this transaction, the book value of the mining rights included in the valuation scope and recorded as intangible assets was 1.165 billion yuan, involving a total of two mining rights, including the mining right for the Xinjiang Meisheng Katebaasu Gold-Copper Mine and the exploration right for the Xinjiang Xinyuan County Katebaasu Gold-Copper Polymetallic Mine. In terms of ore reserves, the Xinjiang Meisheng Katebaasu Gold-Copper Mine has proven total ore reserves of 25.67 million mt (including 78.7 mt of gold resources). Upon completion and reaching full production, the project will achieve a production scale of 4,000 mt/day, with an annual output of 1.2 million mt of ore and approximately 3.3 mt of gold metal. In addition to gold resources, there are 48,800 mt of copper metal content, 125,544.92 kg of associated silver, and 1.6624 million mt of associated sulfur element. As of the end of 2024, the resource volume of captive mines of Westgold Resources Co., Ltd. was approximately 32 mt, with reserves of about 12 mt, and annual gold production from mines was approximately 1 mt.

The latest "C50 Direction Index" survey by Cailian Press shows that the market consensus forecast for new RMB loans in May stands at 600 billion yuan, down 35 billion yuan YoY from 95 billion yuan in the same period last year. The median forecast for new aggregate financing in May is 2.32 trillion yuan, up 26 billion yuan YoY. Market participants expect M2 growth may pick up in May amid improved liquidity and low base effects. On prices, the market anticipates CPI to remain relatively stable in May while PPI deflation may widen further. The median forecasts for CPI and PPI YoY growth rates are -0.2% and -3.3% respectively. The "C50 Direction Index Survey", initiated by Cailian Press and completed with participation from various research institutions, comprehensively reflects market expectations on macroeconomic trends, monetary policy sentiment and financial data. Nearly 20 institutions participated in this round. Market consensus forecasts median new RMB loans in May at 600 billion yuan In April, new RMB loans totaled 280 billion yuan, down approximately 450 billion yuan YoY. Household loans decreased by 521.6 billion yuan while corporate loans rose by 610 billion yuan, mainly driven by bill financing. For May, the median forecast for new RMB loans is 600 billion yuan, down 35 billion yuan YoY, with projections ranging from 430 billion to 1.25 trillion yuan. Market analysts attribute weak credit expansion in May primarily to constrained corporate loan demand, with future trends heavily dependent on fiscal policy intensity. Corporate loan growth YoY was mainly supported by increased bill financing, reflecting still weak effective loan demand and subdued financing appetite among real-economy enterprises. Data shows bill rates in May first declined then rebounded, maintaining April's sideways trend. Binbin Sun, chief economist at Caitong Securities, noted: "The phased implementation of comprehensive financial support policies announced by the PBOC on May 7, coupled with slightly rising bill rates in late May, both indicate weaker bank demand for bill-based credit expansion. Credit is expected to strengthen MoM but remain weaker YoY." Additionally, weak medium and long-term corporate loans in May were significantly affected by local government debt restructuring. Wenlang Zhang, chief macro analyst at CICC, stated: "New credit in May may remain relatively weak, with our forecast showing a YoY decline. An important factor remains potential reductions in credit stock due to government bond swaps." "Affected by local governments' efforts to resolve debt, some outstanding loans in the hidden debt of urban investment platforms have been replaced or repaid early. New loans are calculated as the difference between newly issued loans and loans repaid in the current period. Therefore, the scale of new loans in the month will be affected to a certain extent," said Liao Bo, the co-chief macro analyst at Zheshang Securities. In the first five months of this year, special refinancing bonds issued by various provinces for debt replacement totaled 160 million yuan, causing technical disruptions to credit. New aggregate financing in May may increase YoY, and the YoY growth rate of M2 may continue to rebound. In April, new aggregate financing reached 1.16 trillion yuan, with the YoY increase expanding to 1.2 trillion yuan, mainly driven by government bonds. According to this survey, the median forecast for the scale of new aggregate financing in May by market institutions is 2.32 trillion yuan, an increase of 260 billion yuan compared to 2.06 trillion yuan in the same period of 2024. The forecast range of participating institutions is from 2 trillion yuan to 2.74 trillion yuan. Overall, government bonds are expected to remain the main contributor to aggregate financing in May. High-frequency data shows that the net financing scale of government bonds in May was approximately 1.46 trillion yuan, still achieving a YoY increase of nearly 268.8 billion yuan compared to the high base in the same period last year. In addition, the industry expects that with the gradual allocation and use of fiscal funds, it may positively drive M1. Lu Zhengwei, the chief economist at Industrial Bank, said that under the influence of "deposit outflow" in May 2024, the growth rate of M1 significantly pulled back. Given the low base and the continuous advancement of debt resolution policies, the growth rate of M1 in May 2025 is expected to rise significantly. Regarding M2, on May 7, the People's Bank of China announced comprehensive RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. The RRR cuts are expected to supplement liquidity by around 1 trillion yuan, significantly easing the liquidity situation in May. The DR007 benchmark rate in May fell by 14 basis points compared to April. Lu Zhengwei expects that with the improvement in market liquidity and the impact of a low base, M2 in May may rise. In Liao Bo's view, the rebound in the growth rate of M2 in May is mainly related to the rectification of manual interest rate adjustments for deposits in April 2024, hence the impact of a low base. In addition, the shift of deposits to wealth management products may continue. In Q1 2025, the People's Bank of China promoted a moderate rebound in government bond yields through measures such as suspending government bond purchases and withdrawing liquidity, which led to a decline in the net value of some wealth management products. This resulted in some funds flowing back from wealth management products to deposit accounts, also supporting the rise in M2. The YoY growth rate of CPI in May is expected to remain under pressure, while the YoY decline of PPI may continue to widen. In April, CPI decreased by 0.1% YoY, with the growth rate remaining negative for three consecutive months. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, maintained a YoY growth rate of 0.5%. From a YoY perspective, market institutions forecast the median CPI in May to be -0.2%, with a forecast range of -0.4% to -0.1%. Notably, nearly 60% of market institutions expect the YoY growth rate of CPI in May to remain flat compared to the previous month. Industry insiders believe that due to abundant seasonal supply, food prices have declined mildly overall, keeping the YoY growth rate of CPI at a low level in May. Data shows that the Shouguang Vegetable Price Index in China fell by 16.3% YoY in May, further widening from the 14.2% YoY decline in April. "Regarding pork, from the supply side, the secondary fattening pigs that were replenished earlier are being marketed in succession, and the replenishment of secondary fattening pigs will continue on a rolling basis, keeping supply strong. Meanwhile, holiday demand is weaker than in previous years, driving the average pork price in 22 provinces down by 0.6% MoM in May. In other aspects, we expect non-food consumer goods driven by the trade-in policy to maintain a volume discount trend, while service prices may recover mildly," said Zhang Wenlang. Looking ahead, Sun Binbin expects vegetable prices to receive some short-term support due to continuous rainfall in many parts of south China, while pork prices are expected to remain in the doldrums due to the pressure from rising marketings. He projects YoY CPI to be -0.2% and -0.4% in June and July, respectively. In terms of PPI, the YoY decline in PPI widened by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% in April. The median forecast for YoY PPI in May among participating institutions is -3.3%, with a forecast range of -3.5% to -3.0%. Regarding the potential further widening of the YoY decline in PPI in May, Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank, analyzed that from an international perspective, the positive developments in Sino-US negotiations have boosted risk appetite, leading to a slight rebound in commodity prices except for gold. However, commodity prices subsequently pulled back due to renewed tariff threats. Data shows that the monthly average of the CRB Index in May rose by 0.1% MoM, while the monthly average of metal prices fell by 1.6% MoM, the monthly average of industrial raw material prices rose by 0.1% MoM, and the monthly average of Brent crude oil prices fell by 3.7% MoM. Domestically, the monthly average of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell by 2.1% MoM in May, marking the third consecutive month of decline. Among them, the decline in domestically priced steel prices dragged down the metal index by 0.4% MoM; the decline in oil and coal prices drove down the energy and chemical index by 3.3% MoM; the monthly average of the Ministry of Commerce's weekly-published producer goods price index fell by 1.7% MoM, the largest MoM decline since September last year. In May, among the sub-indices of the manufacturing PMI, the index for the purchase prices of major raw materials fell by 0.1 percentage points to 46.9%, and the ex-factory price index fell by 0.1 percentage points to 44.7%. In Liao Bo's view, the changes in PPI are mainly influenced by the imported impact of the downward fluctuation in international crude oil prices on China, as well as the accelerated technological progress in some domestic industries and intense market competition pressure. "We believe that there is still uncertainty in the trend of international commodity prices. However, as domestic policies such as large-scale equipment upgrades and trade-in policies for consumer goods gradually take effect, they will provide some support for prices in certain industries. High-frequency data shows that it will be difficult for the MoM growth rate to return to the positive range," said Liao Bo.