Overall, the aluminum processing industry achieved a slight edge up in operating rate this week, driven by the recovery of export orders, the surge in energy storage demand, and the recovery of infrastructure-related orders. The industry maintained relatively strong resilience, and going forward, attention should be focused on the sustainability of export orders and the boosting effect of aluminum price trends on demand.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Scrap and Alloy Imports Both Dropped Sharply, Alloy Exports Hit Single-Month Record High] Imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 73,500 mt, down 15.4% YoY and down 12.9% MoM; cumulative imports from January to April were 313,900 mt, down 14.6% YoY. Exports side, April unwrought aluminum alloy exports reached 46,300 mt, hitting a single-month export record high, up 179.7% YoY and up 68.9% MoM; cumulative exports from January to April were 111,200 mt, up 58.1% YoY. Since March, affected by Middle East geopolitical conflicts and ex-China supply disruptions, overseas aluminum alloy ingot prices continued to rise, with the price spread between domestic and overseas markets becoming increasingly inverted.

[SMM Analysis] Can Indonesia import sulfuric acid as a substitute after the sulfur restriction?

Overall outlook: Through the strategic shift of order focus toward Southeast Asia and Europe, China's prebaked anode exports are expected to effectively mitigate the downside risks from the Middle Eastern market, with the market structure's risk resilience continuing to strengthen. Full-year exports in 2026 are expected to maintain robust growth, and regional diversification is expected to deepen further.

[SMM Steel] Ukraine’s steel industry warned that the EU’s planned steel safeguard revisions could significantly reduce the country’s export revenues and damage its wartime economy. Under the new measures effective from July 1, the EU plans to cut steel import quotas by 47% and impose a 50% tariff on out-of-quota volumes. Ukrainian steelmakers said the restrictions could sharply limit access to their largest export market, as Ukraine exported around 2.65 million mt of steel to the EU last year. Industry sources estimated the proposed quota reductions could cut export volumes by around 70% and result in up to €1 billion in lost export revenues.

According to customs data, China's antimony oxide export volume in April 2026 stood at 379.385 metric tons, representing a modest month-on-month increase from the March export volume of 345.753 metric tons. Many market participants noted that given the current fundamental situation of antimony prices, the steady performance and minor fluctuations in antimony oxide export volumes over recent months are indeed quite consistent with market conditions.

According to customs data, China's export volume of bismuth trioxide stood at 898.429 tons in April 2026, compared with 1,100.233 tons recorded in March 2026. On a month-on-month basis, exports continued to decline and fell below the 1,000-ton mark once again.

According to customs data released on May 20, 2026, China’s phosphate ore imports stood at 207,000 mt in April 2026, rising 13.5% month-on-month from 182,000 mt in March. April total import value hit US$19.741 million, a MoM increase of 35.7% versus US$14.552 million in March. The average import unit price was US$95.5 per mt, up 19.6% from US$79.9 per mt in March.

Primary Aluminum Imports According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum imports reached approximately 265,000 tons in April 2026, rising 4.1% month-on-month and 5.9% year-on-year. The total domestic import volume from January to April 2026 stood at around 911,000 tons, up 9.2% year-on-year. Primary Aluminum Exports Per statistics released by the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminum exports were about 16,000 tons in April 2026, growing 6.3% month-on-month and 13.7% year-on-year. The cumulative export volume in the first four months of 2026 hit roughly 54,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 55.1%. (The above import and export data are based on HS Codes: 76011090 and 76011010)

Korea’s auto industry maintained solid exports and production in 2025, but its 2030 competitiveness will depend on EV transition execution. The domestic market has matured, while hybrids have become a defensive pillar. EV adoption remains below the government’s target, and U.S.-EU policy pressure and Chinese EV competition are reshaping export strategies. Future competitiveness will hinge on pricing, localization, battery sourcing, and charging and safety confidence.