SMM News, May 12: Metals market: Overnight, domestic market base metals mostly rose. SHFE copper was up 2.35%. SHFE aluminum was up 0.57%, SHFE lead was down 0.24%. SHFE zinc was up 1.33%. SHFE tin was up 1.8%. SHFE nickel was up 0.83%. In addition, the most-traded alumina futures were up 0.53%, and the most-traded foundry aluminum futures were up 0.82%. Overnight, ferrous metals mostly fell. Iron ore was down 0.24%, stainless steel edged down, rebar was down 0.18%, and hot-rolled coil edged up. Coking coal and coke: coking coal was down 0.65%, coke was up 0.19%. Overnight, overseas market metals saw LME base metals rise across the board. LME copper was up 2.84%. LME aluminum was up 2.27%, LME lead was up 0.56%. LME zinc was up 1.19%. LME tin was up 2.31%. LME nickel was up 1.64%. Overnight precious metals : COMEX gold was up 0.31%, COMEX silver was up 7.35%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE gold contract was up 0.45%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract was up 6.47%. Gandharv Walia, a columnist for India's Economic Times, said that on Monday, gold prices fell as geopolitical tensions sparked inflation concerns and shifted interest rate expectations. Silver performed differently — silver typically benefits from both industrial and investment demand, and traders increased purchases on expectations of industrial use and price momentum. The market currently expects fluctuations in the precious metals market. US April inflation data will be released this week. Strong inflation data could delay interest rate cuts, which could put pressure on gold again; lower inflation could support gold prices. Global diplomatic efforts on the Iran issue are equally important, as any outcome could affect market sentiment and precious metals prices. On the other hand, silver benefits from industrial demand. The manufacturing and technology sectors require silver for electronic devices and energy systems. If economic activity remains stable, silver may continue to outperform gold. (Jin10) As of 7:18 AM, May 12, overnight closing prices: Macro front China: [The General Office of the State Council Issued the "State Council 2026 Annual Legislative Work Plan"] The State Council Legislative Plan emphasized promoting high-quality development, maintaining high-level security through high-quality legislation, and ensuring the smooth achievement of economic and social development goals during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. First, to build a high-level socialist market economic system and accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, it listed the draft Financial Law, the draft amendment to the Tendering and Bidding Law, and the formulation of regulations on building a unified national market. Second, to strengthen the rule-of-law government and optimize the business environment, it will revise the implementation regulations of the Administrative Reconsideration Law and the procedures for formulating administrative regulations. Third, to accelerate high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and stimulate cultural innovation, it listed the draft amendment to the Teachers Law and the revision of the Internet Information Service Management Measures. Fourth, to strengthen people's livelihood and accelerate green transformation, it listed the draft amendment to the Road Traffic Safety Law, the formulation of water supply regulations, and the revision of the Drug Administration Law implementation regulations. Fifth, to modernize the national security system and build a safer China, it listed the draft amendment to the Earthquake Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Law and the formulation of regulations on production safety hazard investigation and management. Sixth, to strengthen foreign-related legal systems and expand high-level opening-up, it listed the draft amendment to the Customs Law, the formulation of State Council provisions on industry chain and supply chain security, and the revision of the regulations on origin of import and export goods. Meanwhile, the State Council Legislative Plan made arrangements for accelerating comprehensive legislation on the healthy development of artificial intelligence, and outlined plans for legislation urgently needed for further comprehensive deepening of reform, accelerating government function transformation, developing new quality productive forces, safeguarding national security, strengthening foreign-related rule of law, and advancing national defense and military modernization. (Xinhua) [PBOC Q1 Monetary Policy Implementation Report: Continue to Implement Moderately Accommodative Monetary Policy] The People's Bank of China released its Q1 2026 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report. The report stated: continue to implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy. Enhance the foresight, flexibility, and precision of policies, grasp the intensity, pace, and timing of policy implementation based on economic and financial conditions in and outside China and financial market operations, strengthen coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, smooth monetary policy transmission mechanisms, and promote stable economic growth and reasonable price rebound. Flexibly use various monetary policy tools, maintain ample liquidity and relatively accommodative social financing conditions, guide reasonable growth in aggregate financial volume and balanced credit allocation, so that the growth of aggregate social financing and money supply matches economic growth and overall price level targets. [China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance: Combined Power Battery and ESS Battery Exports Reached 31.7 Gwh in April, up 42% YoY] The latest monthly data from the China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance showed that in April, affected by the new export tax rebate policy, China's combined power battery and ESS battery exports reached 31.7 Gwh, down 12.3% MoM and up 42.0% YoY, accounting for 19.3% of monthly sales. Among them, power battery exports were 20.2 Gwh, accounting for 63.9% of total exports, down 9.0% MoM and up 40.1% YoY; ESS battery exports were 11.4 Gwh, accounting for 36.1% of total exports, down 17.4% MoM and up 45.4% YoY. [China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products Submitted Comments on the EU Cybersecurity Act Amendment Draft] Recently, the EU has been pushing to amend the Cybersecurity Act, adding an "ICT Supply Chain Security" chapter to the amendment draft, which introduces numerous restrictive and exclusionary provisions for market access of overseas suppliers. Once implemented, this could seriously hinder fair competition for Chinese enterprises in the EU market. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products (CCCME) noted the high level of industry concern and fully utilized the EU's legislative review opportunity to submit comments to the European Commission from an industry organization perspective. CCCME also noted that recent EU measures — including the Industrial Accelerator Act and other legislative initiatives, as well as the designation of China as a "high-risk country" in inverter projects at the implementation level — could seriously affect Chinese machinery and electronics enterprises' exports to and operations in the EU. CCCME will closely monitor developments on all fronts and assist domestic enterprises in actively addressing related risks and challenges. (Wallstreetcn) [Baotou Released 16 New Housing Market Policies, to Optimize Housing Provident Fund Support] Baotou officially issued the "Measures for Continuously Promoting Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market." Among the measures, it will optimize housing provident fund support by raising the maximum loan amount for families with two or more children purchasing owner-occupied housing by 10% above the current level (currently, the maximum loan for a single contributor is 700,000 yuan, and for dual-contributor couples, 1.2 million yuan); and support flexible employment workers in voluntarily participating in the housing provident fund system with equal access to housing provident fund policies. US dollar: Overnight, the US dollar index was up 0.08%, closing at 97.94. The US "inflation week" officially kicked off, with CPI (Tuesday), PPI (Wednesday), and import prices (Thursday) all to be released this week, directly affecting judgments on the US Fed's policy path. According to the CME FedWatch tool: the probability of the US Fed keeping rates unchanged through June was 97.7%, with a 2.3% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. The probability of rates remaining unchanged through July was 94.6%, with a 5.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut and a 0.1% probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut. Kevin Warsh, Trump's nominee for the next Fed Chairman, cleared a key procedural hurdle in the Senate on Monday local time. Powell's chairmanship will end this Friday. The Senate is expected to vote as early as Tuesday, following Monday's so-called "cloture vote," to confirm Warsh as a Fed Governor for a 14-year term. Senators will then initiate the confirmation process for his concurrent four-year term as Fed Chairman, with a vote possible as early as Wednesday. The Republican-controlled Senate is expected to approve Warsh as the next Fed leader. The US Fed's next meeting — potentially Warsh's first as chairman — is scheduled for June 16-17 local time. (Jin10) Macro: Data to be released today include Germany's April CPI monthly rate final reading, Germany's May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, Eurozone May ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, US April NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US weekly ADP employment change for the week ending April 25, US April non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate, US April seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate, US April seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate, and US April non-seasonally adjusted core CPI annual rate. In addition, attention should be paid to: the Bank of Japan's release of the summary of opinions from the April monetary policy meeting; permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President Williams participating in a panel discussion on monetary policy; and Vice Premier He Lifeng leading a delegation to South Korea from May 12-13 for trade consultations with the US side. Crude oil: Overnight, both oil futures rose, with WTI up 2.97% and Brent up 3.25%. US-Iran ceasefire negotiations reached an impasse, and the near-standstill of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to intensify market concerns over energy supply disruptions, pushing oil prices higher. (Wallstreetcn) The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) allocated 53.5 million barrels of crude oil to companies including commodity trader Trafigura Group and US refiner Marathon Petroleum to help ease the oil price surge triggered by the Iran war. Ahead of the US summer driving peak, the US government is releasing near-record levels of crude oil to the market to bring down oil prices. The crude oil will be released from June to August, when refineries will ramp up capacity to meet peak gasoline demand. This sale, the second-largest SPR release in history, is also part of a global effort led by the International Energy Agency to bring down oil prices. Last week, the US had already released a record daily average of 1.22 million barrels of crude oil under this framework. The Trump administration pledged to release 172 million barrels of crude oil through a so-called "exchange program." Under this mechanism, crude oil is lent to companies and must later be returned in kind. To date, the US has agreed to release 133.1 million barrels of crude oil. (Jin10)

China's March silver (unwrought silver ingots with purity ≥99.99%, HS code 71069110) imports reached 398.62 mt, up 93% MoM, fulfilling expectations of rising silver ingot imports. Cumulative imports from January to March 2026 totaled 639.91 mt, surging 5,346% from 11.75 mt in the same period of 2025. Historical Comparison: Similarities and Differences Between Two Import Windows Historically, in 2023, surging PV demand widened silver price spreads in and outside China, and silver imports grew significantly (imports in June 2023 surged 5,329%). The similarity between this round and the historical pattern lies in the short-term surge in PV industry demand — in 2023, it was driven by the scaled-up commissioning of silver powder and silver paste capacity, while in 2026, it was driven by PV export rush stockpiling. Both were underpinned by rigid demand for industrial physical silver. The difference is that in 2026, precious metals experienced a rare bull market driven by both industrial demand and interest rate cut cycles. Retail investment demand exacerbated industrial raw material shortages, and China's spot silver ingot market saw significant premiums, boosting physical import profitability. In addition to silver ingots, silver-containing products and crude silver raw materials also entered China in large volumes as semi-manufactured products, which were then processed into silver ingots for circulation. Drivers of the Import Surge This Round 1. PV Export Rush Stockpiling Solar cell and module manufacturers needed to complete order deliveries before the export tax rebate cancellation on April 1. Intermediate processing segments stockpiled large volumes of raw materials in Q1, with certain manufacturers being the core drivers of the industrial import surge. 2. Retail Investment Demand Against the macro backdrop of global interest rate cuts, US debt crisis concerns, and safe-haven demand in Q1, gold and silver became important asset allocation options, with silver gaining popularity as a "gold alternative." After gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, small-denomination investment silver bars were heavily traded as alternatives to high-priced gold investments. 3. Sustained Arbitrage Window Domestic silver prices, driven by robust demand, were significantly higher than London spot prices. Stable SHFE silver premiums prompted global traders to ship silver to China for arbitrage. Some silver ingots exported through China's processing trade were not shipped to Europe or the US but were instead re-imported by traders directly into the Shenzhen market, forming a unique "export-to-domestic sales" pathway. Q2 Outlook: Pulse-Like Rally Fades Entering Q2, the explosive import growth is expected to be unsustainable. Although China's silver prices still carried a premium over London, physical demand and spot premiums had shifted, with some traders' imported silver ingots already experiencing sluggish sales in late March. The demand side weakened simultaneously. Both industrial and investment demand in China declined, and the spot market softened further. After the PV export rush ended, silver nitrate manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm dropped sharply; silver prices moving sideways and uncertainty over Middle East conflicts cooled investment enthusiasm, with funds previously flowing into the precious metals market redirected to high-momentum markets such as the US dollar, US Treasuries, and crude oil. China's silver ingot market transitioned from "scarce supply" in April to "trading at discounts with no takers," and as month-end approached, suppliers were forced to cut premiums for bulk shipments or transfer inventory to participate in SHFE deliveries. Profit margins were sharply compressed. The spot premiums, which peaked at 3,650 yuan/kg in February, had pulled back to near parity by April. Some suppliers sold at discounts due to cash flow needs, import silver ingot profits declined significantly, and the arbitrage window disappeared. Overall, the record-breaking silver imports in Q1 were a "pulse-like" rally driven by both retail investment fever and PV export rush stockpiling. As both drivers faded simultaneously, combined with assessments of actual trade market orders, imports in April are expected to pull back.

April 24, 2026: According to SMM statistics, as of April 24, 2026, in-factory days of inventories at aluminum rod plants in China stood at 9.02 days, up 0.68 days from before the holiday. In terms of inventory ratio, the in-factory inventory ratio at aluminum rod plants in China was 97.22%. During the week, aluminum prices moved sideways and remained in the doldrums, while aluminum rod processing fee quotes stayed stable. By region, as of April 24, 2026, aluminum rod processing fee quotes were concentrated at 350-450 yuan/mt in Jiangsu, 250-350 yuan/mt in Hebei, and 350-450 yuan/mt in South China. For aluminum rod processing fees in other regions, quotes were 150-250 yuan/mt in Shandong, 150-250 yuan/mt in Inner Mongolia, and 250-350 yuan/mt in Henan. Recently, aluminum rod inventory showed a gradual accumulation trend, mainly because aluminum prices continued to fluctuate at highs, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, purchasing sentiment was weak, and market capacity remained ample, leading to continued low-level competition in processing fees. This week, the weekly operating rate of the aluminum wire and cable industry in China rose to 67.6%, up 0.4 percentage points WoW. After the previous surge in power grid demand, orders at aluminum wire producers in China trended toward stability, with top-tier enterprises maintaining a normal production pace. On the export front, as the price spread between ex-China and domestic markets widened further, and given that aluminum stranded wire enjoys a 13% export tax rebate and has aluminum content close to that of aluminum ingots, the cost of exporting aluminum stranded wire and re-melting it into aluminum ingots outside China was lower than purchasing aluminum ingots directly ex-China. Driven by the profit spread, plants in Hebei regained new orders, and production schedule expectations rebounded significantly. Therefore, against the backdrop of surging export orders, the capacity utilization rate in the industry is expected to further rebound, with operating rates at plants staying high.

China's imports of silver (unwrought silver ingots with purity ≥99.99%, HS code 71069110) reached 398.62 mt in March, up 93% MoM from February, fulfilling expectations that silver ingot imports would maintain their upward momentum. Total silver imports from January to March 2026 reached 639.91 mt, up 5,346% YoY compared with 11.75 mt in Q1 2025. Historically, against the backdrop of a sharp increase in demand from China's PV industry in 2023, the price gap between the Chinese and international silver markets gradually widened, and silver imports also surged significantly. () The similarity between this round of silver ingot import window opening and the historical one lies in the short-term surge in PV industry demand — 2023 marked the initial large-scale commissioning of silver powder and silver paste capacity, while 2026 saw short-term stockpiling demand driven by the PV export rush. Behind both import windows was rigid demand for physical silver in industrial production. The difference, however, is that in 2026, precious metals experienced a rare bull market driven by both industrial demand and the interest rate cut cycle, with retail investment demand further tightening already scarce industrial raw materials. As a result, significant spot premiums emerged in China's spot silver ingot market, boosting profits from physical imports. It is understood that in addition to silver ingots, silver-containing products and crude silver raw materials also entered the Chinese market in large quantities as semi-manufactured products for further processing into silver ingots and market circulation. Specifically, the driving factors behind this round of import surge were: 1. PV industry export rush stockpiling Solar cell and module manufacturers needed to complete order deliveries before the export tax rebate cancellation on April 1, leading to massive raw material stockpiling by midstream processing firms in Q1, with some individual manufacturers being the core drivers of the industrial import surge. 2. Retail investment demand: Against the macro backdrop of global interest rate cuts, US debt crisis concerns, and safe-haven demand in Q1, gold and silver became important asset allocation options, with silver gaining popularity as a "gold alternative." After gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, small-denomination investment silver bars were heavily traded as an alternative to high-priced gold. 3. Sustained arbitrage window Driven by robust demand, Chinese silver prices were significantly higher than London spot prices. With stable SHFE silver premiums, global traders were incentivized to ship silver to China for arbitrage. Even silver ingots exported through China's processing trade were not shipped to Europe or the US but were instead re-imported by traders directly into the Shenzhen market, forming a unique "export-to-domestic-sales" pathway. Q2 outlook: Entering Q2, the explosive growth in silver ingot imports is unlikely to sustain. Although Chinese silver ingots still carry a premium over London prices, demand for physical silver ingots and spot premiums have changed, with some traders' imported silver ingots already experiencing sluggish sales since late March. On one hand, domestic industrial and investment demand declined simultaneously, and the spot market weakened further. After the PV export rush orders ended, silver nitrate manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm dropped sharply. Additionally, as silver prices moved sideways and uncertainties from Middle East conflicts dampened precious metals investment sentiment, funds that had previously flowed into the precious metals market shifted back to high-momentum markets such as US dollar, US Treasuries, and crude oil. Chinese silver ingots gradually transitioned from "hard to find" in April to "trading at discounts with no buyers." Approaching month-end, suppliers began lowering premiums to offload inventory or transfer stock for SHFE delivery. On the other hand, import profit margins were significantly compressed, mainly because spot premiums, which peaked at 3,650 yuan/kg in February, had pulled back to near parity by April. Some suppliers even sold at discounts due to cash flow needs, causing import silver ingot profits to decline sharply and the arbitrage window to close. Overall, the record-breaking silver imports in Q1 this year were a "pulse-like" event driven by both retail investment enthusiasm and PV stockpiling rush. As both driving factors fade simultaneously, combined with an assessment of actual import order performance in the trade market, imports in April are expected to pull back.

April 21, 2026: Customs data showed that China's aluminum wire exports totaled 26,350 mt in March 2026, up 13 percentage points MoM and 16.64 percentage points YoY. In terms of export product structure, exports of aluminum conductor steel-reinforced (ACSR) cable reached 18,300 mt in March, accounting for 69.64%, while exports of other non-insulated stranded aluminum wire totaled 8,000 mt, accounting for 30.36%. From January to March, China's total aluminum wire exports reached 79,600 mt, up 29.5 percentage points YoY. (HS codes: 76141000, 76149000) By export destination, the top destination for aluminum wire and cable exports in March 2026 was Saudi Arabia in the Middle East, with exports totaling 6,330 mt, accounting for 24% of March exports. Although Middle East tensions have escalated since March and the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked, enterprises can opt to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope in Africa and reach ports through the Red Sea for domestic shipment, so the impact on orders has been relatively limited. The second-largest export destination was Tanzania in Africa, where steady release of local power grid project demand provided support for China's exports. In addition, based on last year's data, Middle East orders accounted for 10.4% of total exports, and given the availability of alternative shipping routes, the impact of the Strait of Hormuz on export destinations was relatively limited, with minimal effect on domestic orders. By province, China's aluminum wire export landscape remained stable. Jiangsu Province continued to rank first, with March exports of 13,459 mt, accounting for 51% of total exports, up 13.2 percentage points MoM. Henan Province ranked second with exports of 3,940 mt, accounting for 15% of total exports, up 16.6% MoM. Xinjiang achieved a MoM increase of 560.2%, with exports of 3,822 mt, ranking third. Overall, China's aluminum wire exports continued the high-volume trend in March 2026. Regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Southeast Asia demonstrated steady demand release driven by power grid construction project progress, injecting growth momentum into China's aluminum wire exports in 2026. Meanwhile, aluminum production cuts outside China further widened the price spread between domestic and overseas markets, and subsequent exports are expected to demonstrate strong sustainability. In addition, as China's aluminum wire still enjoys export tax rebates, the resulting profit spread has led to emerging demand for re-melting exported stranded aluminum wire into aluminum ingots, further boosting China's aluminum wire exports. Based on optimistic expectations for overseas demand, coupled with order transmission lead times, China's aluminum wire exports in April–May are expected to approach or surpass the five-year high for single-month exports.

China's March silver imports hit a record high, as retail investors' buying frenzy and concentrated stockpiling by the PV industry jointly pushed imports far above seasonal averages. Analysts warned that this explosive growth is unlikely to sustain. According to China's customs data, China imported approximately 836 mt of silver in March, nearly triple the past 10-year March average of approximately 306 mt. This import surge was driven by two overlapping demand forces: retail investors purchasing small-sized silver bars as substitutes for high-priced gold, and PV manufacturers rushing to stockpile ahead of the April 1 export tax rebate cancellation. China's silver prices were significantly higher than international benchmark prices driven by robust demand, prompting traders worldwide to ship silver to China for arbitrage, with Hong Kong serving as the primary transit channel. Explosive Imports Unlikely to Sustain However, import momentum already faced multiple cooling factors. Retail side, gold and silver prices retreated from highs set in January. The energy crisis triggered by the Iran war intensified market concerns over inflation, dragging down the performance of zero-yield precious metals, and the momentum of retail bandwagon buying also weakened accordingly. Industrial side, the PV industry consumed approximately one-fifth of global annual supply, with capacity highly concentrated in China. However, this demand pillar was also under pressure, as policy statements signaled curbing overcapacity in the PV industry. Meanwhile, silver prices remained at a relatively high level, potentially prompting the industry to shift toward cheaper base metals as substitutes for silver. Wu Zijie, an analyst at Shenzhen Jinrui Futures, stated that "explosive imports will certainly not continue," and future import flows will return to normal levels. He noted that given China is the world's largest silver producer, there is no basis for long-term imbalance in silver supply and demand.

Based on on-site visits to the 2026 China Hydrogen Energy Exhibition and International Hydrogen Energy Conference, the most intuitive impression of this edition was that the industry as a whole is cooling down. Although the exhibition quality was moderate, enterprise participation and novelty were noticeably inferior to previous editions. In the hydrogen production sector, top-tier enterprises such as Sungrow Hydrogen, LONGi Hydrogen, and CRRC ZELC attended to hold up the show, while a number of mainstream industry players including LuDao Hydrogen, CSSC Peric, and MingYang Hydrogen did not exhibit. Fuel cell enterprises were almost entirely absent, with most having shifted to the FCVC exhibition in Shanghai. The exhibitors were still dominated by general parts enterprises such as valves, instruments, gaskets, and compressors, while core parts enterprises showed very low willingness to participate. The reasons were quite practical: on one hand, over 30% of hydrogen production enterprises make their own electrodes and separators, and the remaining enterprises have long established fixed partnerships with parts suppliers. Exhibitions can hardly bring in new clients and offer poor cost-effectiveness, so there were many familiar faces and few new enterprises on site. Instead, non-ferrous material enterprises such as Guiyan, Heraeus, Baoti, and Beikuang New Materials appeared in clusters, becoming the most noteworthy new change at this exhibition. Market differentiation in the hydrogen production segment has become very clear, with involution in China and going global becoming the mainstream choice for enterprises. Alkaline electrolysers face fierce price competition in China, with the price spread versus PEM continuing to widen. Medium-sized and larger enterprises have generally turned their attention to markets outside China, where export prices for MW-scale hydrogen production systems are considerable, along with export tax rebate policies. To meet European local content requirements, small and medium-sized enterprises mostly partner with local dealers, while top-tier enterprises are planning to build factories directly in Europe. Quite a few PEM electrolyser enterprises exhibited, but products were mainly small-scale units, primarily targeting metal refineries and small and medium-sized chemical enterprises. The biggest obstacle to promotion is ambiguous policy positioning — hydrogen is both an energy source and a hazardous chemical, and new equipment must go through approval and filing. Some local governments and enterprises show slightly lower enthusiasm due to safety and efficiency considerations. At this exhibition, the AEM technology route clearly gained momentum, with both equipment and parts enterprises increasing their deployment and technical exchanges becoming more open. However, the core issue remains the relatively short membrane lifespan, far below that of alkaline and PEM electrolysers. Meanwhile, the closed landscape of PEM core parts is being broken. Electrodes, membranes, and other components that enterprises previously kept for internal use are now being sold on the retail market, and the degree of marketisation across the industry chain is increasing. The convergence of non-ferrous materials and hydrogen energy is rapidly increasing, which is the most practically valuable signal from this exhibition. Enterprises such as Heraeus and Guiyan are concentrated in the PEM electrolyser catalyst field, Baoti's titanium materials are mainly used for bipolar plates, and nickel is a key material for alkaline electrolysers, extensively used in electrode plates, separator frames, and bipolar plates. Currently, catalyst enterprises are essentially all pursuing an integrated route of raw materials, compounds, and catalysts, while also supporting recycling operations. Small platinum group metal enterprises are also extending toward end-users, with a clear trend of full-chain deployment. By contrast, gas companies were almost absent from this exhibition, perhaps because metal powder users went to the powder metallurgy exhibition in Shanghai during the same period. There was some enterprise participation in the methanol-hydrogen blending and natural gas-hydrogen blending directions, with economic viability being more prominent in high natural gas price areas in south China, while promotion potential is relatively limited in the north where natural gas prices are more advantageous. Interest in hydrogen storage and transportation, refuelling, and fuel cell sectors continued to decline, with top-tier enterprises largely absent. Attention to hydrogen fuel cells fell far short of hydrogen production, and hydrogen production itself is also cooling down. Based on enterprise feedback on the 15th Five-Year Plan subsidy policies, subsidy resources are mainly concentrated in demonstration projects, infrastructure, and hydrogen transportation, with no direct subsidies for equipment manufacturing enterprises, which can only seek support through technological innovation and project applications. Cut-throat competition is expected to continue further. Overall, the current hydrogen energy industry has not broken out of its existing landscape. AEM is beginning to move toward marketisation, PEM remains focused on small batches and small-scale units, large alkaline electrolysers still rely on demonstration projects, and SOFC is also progressing gradually. As core parts become more open and market price signals become clearer, the industry is shifting from past expansion and momentum-building toward substantive implementation and deep cultivation. Future opportunities are more concentrated in the localisation of materials, marketisation of core parts, and expansion into markets outside China.

As of now, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP nickel was $15,341/mt Ni, and the FOB price of Indonesian MHP cobalt was $51,425/mt Co. MHP payables (against SMM battery-grade nickel sulphate index) stood at 86-87, and the MHP cobalt element payable indicator (against SMM refined cobalt (Rotterdam warehouse)) was 94. The FOB price of Indonesian high-grade nickel matte was $15,623/mt Ni.

[How Should Zinc Consumption Be Viewed Against the Backdrop of Geopolitical Conflicts?] Q1 2026 had passed, and the overall recovery in post-holiday consumption was somewhat delayed. How would consumption perform going forward?

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices rose somewhat. Today, nickel sulphate prices edged down slightly, cobalt sulphate prices held steady, and manganese sulphate prices increased slightly. Discounts, for April and Q2 orders, some producers were willing to raise discounts due to large fluctuations in raw material prices. Long-term contracts, some producers recently finalized long-term contracts; some producers saw slight increases in nickel and cobalt discounts, while some producers may still have some room for negotiation on processing fees. However, as downstream demand for high-priced raw materials remained weak, upside room is expected to be limited. Spot orders, the Ni-Co-Mn coefficient for March spot orders had already moved higher, and with current downstream procurement sentiment weak, further upside room is expected to be limited. Production, as China entered the off-season for demand this month, some enterprises saw their production schedules pull back. The export tax rebate deadline had passed, and production intensity at some enterprises related to the rush to export also declined. Looking ahead, cost support for sulphates remained relatively strong, but downstream acceptance of prices will depend on Q2 downstream demand.