Around May 23, 2026, import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain-related products in April were released in a concentrated manner. Data showed that China's spodumene imports in April reached 758,000 mt in physical content, down 9.5% MoM and up 21.7% YoY. Lithium carbonate imports, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and up 15% YoY....... SMM compiled the import and export data for battery materials, as detailed below: Upstream Lithium Concentrates In April 2026, China's spodumene imports reached 758,000 mt in physical content, down 9.5% MoM and up 21.7% YoY, equivalent to approximately 63,000 mt of LCE. Customs data showed that April spodumene imports pulled back MoM from March, reaching 758,000 mt in physical content. By source country, Australian ore port arrivals returned to relatively normal levels, with over 350,000 mt arriving this month, up 38.9% MoM; Zimbabwe's earlier shipments arrived in the month at 102,000 mt, down 9.2% MoM; South Africa and Nigeria saw some contraction in monthly port arrivals, while ore from Mali had almost no notable port arrivals this month due to shipping schedule impacts. Notably, spodumene ore powder sold by Brazil in early 2026 arrived at ports this month, driving a significant increase in port arrivals from this country. Additionally, after SMM screening, the month's incoming ore was equivalent to 63,000 mt of LCE. Among the incoming ore, lithium concentrates accounted for 67%, with the share edging down MoM, mainly because apart from Australia , ore from other source countries contained some relatively low-grade ore. Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM Spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot pricing, according to SMM spot quotes, spot prices for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) fluctuated upward in April. As of April 30, the spot price for spodumene concentrates (CIF China) rose to $2,540/mt, up $221/mt from the month-end March price of $2,313/mt, a gain of 9.81%. According to SMM, lithium carbonate prices continued to rise in April, and spodumene concentrates prices rose in tandem with salt prices, with gains exceeding those of lithium carbonate itself, causing non-integrated enterprises that purchased externally spodumene concentrates to suffer losses, with spot profitability remaining in deficit. In April, spot circulation of lepidolite concentrates relatively eased. Meanwhile, as lithium carbonate prices rose, processing fees for non-integrated enterprises also increased accordingly, preserving a certain profit margin for their processing operations and enabling these enterprises to achieve spot profitability. However, recently, spodumene concentrates prices adjusted in tandem with lithium carbonate price fluctuations, and the price transaction center shifted downward. According to SMM's latest findings, disrupted by rumors of production resumptions at Jiangxi mines this week, lithium carbonate futures and spot prices declined, further dragging down the overall transaction center. Currently, lithium mines showed a weak willingness to make shipments, and transactions were mostly concentrated between traders and buyers. Port lithium ore inventory continued to decline. Going forward, attention should still be paid to the potential tight lithium ore supply triggered by high operating rates in the lithium chemicals industry, and lithium ore prices were expected to hold up well. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 32,650 mt of lithium carbonate in April, up 9% MoM and 15% YoY. Of this, 21,000 mt was imported from Chile (65% of total imports), 9,555 mt from Argentina (29%), and 1,100 mt from Indonesia (3%). From January to April, China's cumulative lithium carbonate imports reached 116,000 mt, up 47% YoY cumulatively. In April, China exported 370 mt of lithium carbonate, down 17% MoM and 50% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative lithium carbonate exports totaled 1,886 mt, up 7% YoY cumulatively. In April, China imported 17,942 mt of lithium sulfate, up 9% MoM and 296% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative lithium sulfate imports reached 58,900 mt, up 121% YoY cumulatively. According to SMM spot quotes, spot lithium carbonate prices generally trended upward in April. As of April 30, the spot lithium carbonate price rose to 177,000 yuan/mt, up 14,000 yuan/mt or 8.59% from 163,000 yuan/mt on March 31. According to SMM analysis, China's lithium carbonate prices followed a "V-shaped" trend of first declining then rising in April, with the monthly average price up 6% MoM. In the first ten days, geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East intensified global risk-aversion sentiment, causing non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate prices to fluctuate downward. In the mid-to-late period, driven by Zimbabwe's export ban, Jiangxi mine license renewals, and rising costs, prices began to rebound and fluctuate upward, with the month-end price center shifting notably higher. Upstream and downstream purchasing remained stagnant, with the psychological price spread widening week by week. Upstream producers held prices firm and held back from selling, maintaining high offer prices; downstream buyers made just-in-time procurement only, with psychological price levels concentrated at 155,000-175,000 yuan/mt, restocking on dips only when prices fell rapidly. In April, battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices dropped to around 155,500 yuan/mt in the first ten days, then rallied all the way to 177,000 yuan/mt by month-end. As of May 29, domestic battery-grade spot lithium carbonate was quoted at 174,000-181,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 177,500 yuan/mt. Battery Materials LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in April 2026, China's cumulative LiPF6 exports totaled approximately 868 mt, down approximately 80.9% MoM, while cumulative LiPF6 imports were approximately 96 mt. Export side, China's LiPF6 exports in April 2026 were approximately 868 mt, down approximately 80.9% MoM from March and down approximately 33.2% YoY. Specifically, as the VAT rebate policy for LiPF6 exports was officially abolished starting April 1, 2026, enterprises rushed to export in March in advance, and ex-China electrolyte enterprises built up certain inventory, leading to MoM declines in China's exports to multiple major destination countries in April. Among them, exports to Poland were 337.5 mt (down approximately 80.4% MoM), South Korea 81.804 mt (down approximately 92.56% MoM), Czech Republic 150 mt (down approximately 67.43% MoM), and the US 101.908 mt (down approximately 61.7% MoM). Only exports to Japan saw an increase — exports to Japan were 191.37 mt, up approximately 50.77% MoM. Artificial Graphite In April 2026, China's artificial graphite imports were 757 mt, up 12.4% MoM and down 32.9% YoY. Average import price side, in April 2026, the average import price of China's artificial graphite was 75,941 yuan/mt, up 23.1% MoM and up 14.6% YoY. In April 2026, China's artificial graphite exports were 45,895 mt, up 22.3% MoM and down 21% YoY. Average export price side, in April 2026, the average export price of China's artificial graphite was 9,214 yuan/mt, down 6.6% MoM and up 0.26% YoY. Exports from the top five provinces rose 21% MoM from the previous month, with two provinces seeing export growth exceeding 35% MoM and another province achieving a MoM increase of 20%. Import market, downstream power battery enterprise orders in China gradually recovered in April. Combined with tight spot capacity at leading anode enterprises, restocking demand was released, boosting artificial graphite imports to rebound from weakness on a MoM basis. However, import volumes remained on a YoY decline, primarily because China's anode industry had ample overall capacity with supply still in a surplus pattern. Domestic self-sufficiency continued to strengthen, and the industry's reliance on imported raw materials and finished products steadily declined. Flake Graphite In April 2026, China's flake graphite imports were 3,178 mt, down 19% MoM and down 45% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In April 2026, China's flake graphite exports totalled 4,093 mt, down 50% MoM and 54% YoY. Export market, the official cancellation of the flake graphite export tax rebate policy this month directly squeezed the profit margins of foreign trade enterprises, significantly dampening overall export willingness across the market. Meanwhile, the approval pace for flake graphite export licences slowed down, hindering foreign trade shipment processes. Combined with weak ex-China end-use demand, multiple bearish factors converged to directly boost a sharp decline in industry export volumes. The import market also continued to weaken. Goods originally destined for exports were redirected to the domestic sales market, making China's local supply increasingly abundant. Market enthusiasm for import procurement was insufficient, ultimately causing imports to decline in tandem this month. Phosphate Ore May 20, 2026, from customs data. In April 2026, China's phosphate ore imports were 207,000 mt. April imports rose 13.5% from 182,000 mt in March. The total import value in April was $19.741 million, up 35.7% MoM from $14.552 million in March. The average unit price was $95.5/mt, up 19.6% from $79.9/mt in March. Import commentary: In May, Egypt's phosphate ore exports faced "policy tightening and weakening demand". On May 13, Egypt's Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced it would no longer sign any new phosphate ore export contracts. Previously, Egyptian Prime Minister Mustafa Madbouly stated clearly at a meeting on May 10 that the government was pushing a transition from raw material exports to the manufacturing of high-value-added products such as phosphate fertiliser. Already signed long-term contracts would not be affected. This is expected to push up import prices and may affect import volumes going forward. Cobalt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In April 2026, China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products imports were approximately 1,247 mt in physical content, down 26% MoM and 98% YoY. Of this, imports from the DRC were approximately 945 mt in physical content, down 43% MoM and 98% YoY. In April 2026, the average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products was $17,187/mt in physical content, up 2.63% MoM. It was reported that most miners had completed Q4 2025 quota approvals, but Q1 2026 quota approvals were again delayed due to issues with sampling, detection, and other procedural processes, resulting in lower approval efficiency. Additionally, DRC currently faced tight transportation capacity. For economic reasons, fleets prioritized transporting oil products and chemicals that were in short supply for production, followed by other metals with shorter turnover cycles, and cobalt among non-ferrous metals came last, meaning cobalt transportation capacity faced significant challenges. Constrained by the above factors, miners primarily focused on building in-transit inventory and had not yet concentrated on booking vessels, so the timing of large-scale intermediate product arrivals at ports was likely to continue being delayed. Unwrought Cobalt China's unwrought cobalt imports in April 2026 were approximately 1,334 mt, up 39% MoM and up 59% YoY. In April, refined cobalt imports mainly came from Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 462 mt, 457 mt, and 182 mt respectively. The main reason for the increase this month was that domestic smelters lacked intermediate product raw materials and imported cobalt slabs and cobalt briquettes for re-dissolution to ensure normal production. In terms of average import prices, the average import price of unwrought cobalt in China in April 2026 was $52,724/mt, up 4.72% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totaled 5,916 mt, up 153% YoY cumulatively. Export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in April 2026 were approximately 218 mt, down 47% MoM and down 95% YoY. By country, China's exports to the US dropped significantly, with April exports to the US at 35 mt, down 87.5% MoM. The main reason was that US alloy-grade refined cobalt demand pulled back in April, and ex-China branded refined cobalt was already sufficient to meet regional demand, with some refined cobalt traders redirecting destinations from the US back to China. In terms of average export prices, the average export price of unwrought cobalt in China in April 2026 was $54,590/mt, up 5.80% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 totaled 1,792 mt, down 76% YoY cumulatively.

SMM, May 29: Spot prices of cobalt products overall fluctuated downward this week. The cobalt intermediate products market continued to receive some support from the slow quota approval process and tight logistics capacity in the DRC. However, the mediocre performance of demand in the overall cobalt market continued to weigh on the market. Can cobalt salt prices find support going forward? Where is the price inflection point? ...SMM compiled the price changes in the cobalt market this week, as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, spot refined cobalt prices fluctuated downward this week. After three consecutive trading days of decline, on May 29, spot refined cobalt prices fell to 419,000-429,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 424,000 yuan/mt, down 3,000 yuan/mt from May 22, a decline of 0.7%. Supply and demand side, mainstream smelters largely completed their sales targets at the month-end stage, keeping quotes stable. Traders' spot-futures price spread ran at parity to a premium of 8,000-10,000 yuan/mt. Downstream alloy and magnetic material enterprises continued purchasing as needed, with no relaxation in raw material inventory control. The metal price spread between refined cobalt and low-priced cobalt salts had largely converged, and the industry's willingness to conduct reverse dissolution production remained subdued. SMM expects the market to continue its fluctuating trend in the short term, and refined cobalt prices still need support from the cobalt salt market to rise. Cobalt Salts ( and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, spot cobalt sulphate prices fluctuated downward this week. As of May 29, spot cobalt sulphate prices temporarily stabilized at 91,000-93,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 92,000 yuan/mt, down 1,500 yuan/mt from 93,500 yuan/mt on May 22, a decline of 1.6%. Supply and demand side, mainstream brands' quotes on the supply side pulled back to 91,000-95,000 yuan/mt. Some smelters and traders cut prices to ship out due to capital turnover pressure, with low-priced cargoes in the market reaching as low as 87,000-88,000 yuan/mt. Demand side, the market was primarily focused on destocking, with a sluggish procurement atmosphere and only sporadic just-in-time procurement. Downstream industry trends diverged: LCO enterprises' production schedules fell short of expectations, compounded by slow order placement, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment; ternary precursor enterprises saw improving production schedules, with purchase willingness gradually rebounding. SMM expects prices to remain in the doldrums in the short term, and a recovery in cobalt sulphate prices still awaits the release of concentrated restocking demand from downstream. : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices remained stable after declining on the first trading day of May 25 this week. As of May 29, cobalt chloride spot prices held steady at 111,500-115,200 yuan/mt, with an average price of 113,350 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt from May 22, a decline of 0.35%. Spot market, the cobalt chloride market atmosphere remained mediocre this week. Supply side, top-tier players continued their strategy of holding prices firm, refusing to ship at low prices, providing bottom support for prices. Meanwhile, small and medium-sized producers, under pressure from capital recovery and performance targets, proactively lowered their offers, but transactions remained scarce even after price cuts, driving the market negotiation center to continue shifting downward. Demand side, downstream enterprises were constrained by weak orders and high inventory, with purchase willingness remaining subdued. SMM believes that current prices already have strong support, with limited room for further weakness, and maintains optimistic expectations for the market outlook. Cost side, prices are expected to recover and rebound going forward, but upside room is constrained, with the timing roughly around June . : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot prices also fluctuated downward this week. As of May 29, Co3O4 spot prices fell to 345,000-357,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 351,000 yuan/mt, down 7,000 yuan/mt from 358,000 yuan/mt on May 22, a decline of 1.96%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market continued its sluggish trend this week. Supply side, producers found it difficult to hold high prices and offered concessions to facilitate shipments, yet product inventory continued to accumulate. Demand side, downstream LCO material enterprises still relied mainly on client-supplied materials and long-term contract procurement, with spot order demand continuing to shrink. Meanwhile, affected by weak end-user demand, some clients had begun to slow down the pace of long-term contract cargo pick-up. Looking ahead, the sluggish landscape of the Co3O4 market is unlikely to change in the short term, but SMM still holds a positive view on prices, though support comes more from the cost side, with the boost from supply-demand and procurement remaining relatively limited. Regarding raw material cobalt intermediate products, according to SMM spot quotes, cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) spot prices edged down $0.1/lb on the last trading day this week, quoted at $25.8-26/lb, with an average price of $25.9/lb. Supply-demand side, the supply side maintained a strong bullish sentiment, holding offers near $26/lb. Due to the sluggish cobalt salt market, downstream smelters remained cautious in procurement, making only just-in-time procurement, with some non-standard cargoes transacted at $25/lb. Currently, 2026 Q1 quotas saw slow approval progress due to cumbersome procedures; coupled with tight logistics capacity in the DRC, cobalt raw material transportation was given lower priority, and the arrival of large shipments at ports continued to be delayed. Short-term demand support remained weak, and prices may continue to trade sideways; a subsequent market strengthening will still depend on downstream demand recovery and cobalt salt price repair. News side, recently, cobalt product import and export data were released. Regarding unwrought cobalt, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's unwrought cobalt imports in April 2026 were approximately 1,334 mt, up 39% MoM and up 59% YoY. April refined cobalt imports mainly came from Indonesia, Russia, and Madagascar, with imports of 462 mt, 457 mt, and 182 mt respectively. The main reason for the increase this month was that domestic smelters lacked intermediate product raw materials and imported cobalt slabs and cobalt briquettes for re-dissolution to ensure normal production. In terms of average import price, the average import price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $52,724/mt, up 4.72% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to April 2026 totaled 5,916 mt, up 153% YoY cumulatively. Export side, China's unwrought cobalt exports in April 2026 were approximately 218 mt, down 47% MoM and down 95% YoY. By country, China's exports to the US dropped significantly, with April exports to the US at 35 mt, down 87.5% MoM. The main reason was that US demand for alloy-grade refined cobalt pulled back in April, and ex-China branded refined cobalt was sufficient to meet regional demand, with some refined cobalt traders redirecting destinations from the US back to China. In terms of average export price, the average export price of China's unwrought cobalt in April 2026 was $54,590/mt, up 5.80% MoM. Cumulative exports from January to April 2026 totaled 1,792 mt, down 76% YoY cumulatively. Cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products side, China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products imports in April 2026 were approximately 1,247 mt in physical content, down 26% MoM and down 98% YoY, of which imports from the DRC were approximately 945 mt in physical content, down 43% MoM and down 98% YoY. The average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products in April 2026 was $17,187/mt, up 2.63% MoM. It was learned that most miners had completed 2025 Q4 quota approvals, but 2026 Q1 quota approvals again experienced reduced efficiency due to sampling, detection, and other procedural issues. Coupled with the current tight logistics capacity in the DRC, fleets prioritized transporting production-critical oil products and chemicals for economic reasons, followed by other metals with shorter turnover cycles, and cobalt in non-ferrous metals came last, facing significant transportation capacity challenges. Constrained by the above factors, miners primarily focused on building in-transit inventory and had not yet concentrated on chartering vessels, so the arrival of large volumes of intermediate products at ports may continue to be delayed.

Indonesian stainless steel producers have cut export offer prices by a further $40/t on May 28, 2026, following an initial reduction in mid-May that broke a six-consecutive-month run of price increases. The cuts reflect a confluence of bearish pressures: the market has entered the traditional Q2 seasonal slowdown, with downstream buying interest subdued and buyers broadly in wait-and-see mode. At the same time, elevated mill and social inventories — built up during a period of high-margin production — are adding to downside pressure. With multiple headwinds converging, Indonesian producers have been forced into successive downward price corrections.

On May 26, 2026, the "2026 SMM Ferrous Salon — Hangzhou Session" event, jointly hosted by Zheshang Futures Co., Ltd. and SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., was successfully held. Nearly forty clients from the ferrous industry chain attended the conference, sharing and exchanging views on topics such as the current status of the ferrous industry, steel export opportunities, market trading hot topics, and steel enterprise risk management, inspiring future cooperation and trading ideas in the steel industry. Chen Kaihang, Chief Black Series Analyst at Zheshang Futures Research Center, believes: 1. Rebar demand is declining, with supply adjusting to match demand. Electric furnace production remains resilient, while blast furnaces cannot deliver profits; 2. HRC is driven by international steel prices, but China's FOB needs to be in a price depression to gain export advantages; 3. Iron ore supply is increasing, demand is unlikely to grow, inventory is at high levels, costs are falling, and the downtrend is pronounced; 4. Coking coal speculation cannot drive steel, delivery issues persist, and risks will be greater after speculation ends; Summary: HRC FOB determines the price ceiling of HRC futures, and the HRC-rebar spread will stay high or even continue to widen slightly. Steel raw material prices face downward pressure. Overall, the strategy for steel remains shorting on rallies. Bottom-fishing will only be feasible when blast furnace rebar production pulls back again. SMM senior ferrous metals analyst Ding Xiaoli stated: In an overcapacity cycle, exports have become the core regulator of China's supply-demand balance. China's dependence on steel exports has continued to climb, reaching 27% in 2025, with domestic surplus capacity highly reliant on markets outside China for absorption. To secure orders, China's export prices have long remained below those of major competing markets such as India and Turkey, making export pricing the core driver of domestic steel prices. In 2026, domestic steel prices will be deeply tied to ex-China pricing, and only when prices outside China rise will Chinese steel have some upside potential.

China's HRC export prices fell 2 USD/tonne MoM today due to RMB appreciation, with some product categories maintaining relatively firm quotes for now. Futures pulled back today, market inquiries weakened, and traders reported that trading activity was very limited as the Eid al-Adha holiday approached in the Middle East.

In April, China's magnesium exports fell 21.9% MoM to 39kt but rose 2.7% YoY. Jan-Apr exports totaled 162kt, up 9.6% YoY. Europe led ingot demand, Japan saw high compliance prices, and North America drove alloy growth. The overall outlook remains positive.

SMM News Flash: [HRC] HRC export prices increased by 3 USD/tonne month-on-month. Due to the expected tight supply of raw materials, the domestic futures market has rapidly rallied, and market inquiries have improved somewhat, but actual transactions have not seen a significant increase. [India] Indian HRC SAE1006 offers declined further by 2–5 USD/tonne to 573–575 USD/tonne CFR Vietnam. The lower offers reflected continued pressure from weak demand and aggressive competition among exporters. Market sentiment remained cautious, with buyers expecting further downside and trading activity staying limited.

SMM data shows that overseas stainless steel prices saw their first correction after six months of gains during May 18–22. Indonesia’s leading mills cut FOB 300 series stainless steel by USD30/mt, then kept prices stable through out the week. Policy-driven supply concerns from Indonesia and IWIP NPI cuts pushed LME nickel above USD 18,800/mt. The market focus shifted from price weakness to cost support, while demand remained resistant to high prices.

The ex-China rare earth market this week exhibited a trend of "falling prices amid tight supply," with Pr-Nd oxide and metal prices generally marked down by approximately $5-10/kg. However, due to export controls and tightening supply, the premium on Chinese products outside China remained significant. Meanwhile, geopolitical rivalry and supply chain restructuring accelerated, with G7 finance ministers calling for urgent reduction of dependence on China and the establishment of recycling quota systems. On the capital front, Greenland Resources spent $35 million to acquire the high-grade Sarfartoq project to strengthen its magnetic material rare earth portfolio. Australia's Arafura officially finalised the final investment decision for the Nolans project. Combined with Brazil's launch of an antitrust investigation and Germany's Heraeus divesting its recycling business, these developments underscored the urgency of global decoupling and localization efforts.

On May 20, 2026, Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto announced during a plenary session of the National Congress that the government has officially signed a groundbreaking regulation targeting the governance of natural resource exports. This bold policy framework will establish a dedicated state-managed natural resource export agency, executing exports through State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) acting as government-designated single exporters. According to local media disclosures and presentation slides shown during the session, this centralized mechanism will initially apply to palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys ( paduan besi ) . Under this system, direct private export transactions will be phased out, forcing overseas buyers and Indonesian producers to route contracts, logistics, and payments entirely through state-appointed BUMN nodes. 1. The Two-Phase Implementation Timeline Based on the official policy schematic diagrams disclosed on-site, the transition to a centralized BUMN-led export model will occur in two distinct regulatory phases: Phase 1 (Transition) Time : June 1, 2026 - August 31, 2026 Mechanics : Private enterprises continue to manage some internal administrative and logistics steps. However, all existing and new import-export transactions with overseas buyers must begin a step-by-step migration to BUMN entities. Phase 2 (Full Monopsony) Time : September 1, 2026, Onward Mechanics : Complete takeover. All transaction flows, sales contracts, export declarations, customs clearance, shipping arrangements, and the collection of export earnings (DHE) will be fully managed or led by designated BUMN. 2. Deep Structural Intervention: Pre- to Post-Clearance This regulatory mechanism does not simply install a government "rubber stamp." Instead, it represents a fundamental reallocation of the entire export trade chain, deeply embedding BUMN across three key logistics and financial phases: [Pre-Clearance] ──> [Clearance] ──> [Post-Clearance] (Contracts & Docs) (Customs & Loading) (Payment & FX DHE) Pre-Clearance (Contract & Goods Preparation): This covers verifying legality, IUP mining licenses, export restrictions ( Lartas ) compliance, sales contract drafting, finalizing payment terms, commercial invoicing, and vessel chartering/cabin bookings. Clearance (Customs & Physical Shipment): Includes filing export declarations (PEB), managing customs system approvals, cargo transport from smelter warehouses to port terminals, loading shipments, and issuing Bills of Lading (B/L). Post-Clearance (Documentation & Capital Flow): BUMN will act as the principal intermediary, dispatching trade documents (B/L, Commercial Invoice, Packing List, Certificate of Origin/COO) to the buyer's issuing bank and managing the repatriation of export proceeds (DHE) under strict domestic banking provisions. 3. The Billion-Dollar Question: Will NPI and FeNi be Classified as "Ferroalloys"? For the global stainless steel and electric vehicle battery supply chains, the immediate focal point is how Indonesia defines the scope of "ferroalloy" ( paduan besi ). Market consensus strongly suggests that the "ferroalloys" under discussion are highly likely targeting Nickel Pig Iron (NPI), which represents a massive trade flow of approximately 11.5 million tons of Indonesian NPI exports in 2025. However, because the official, legally binding regulation "signed" by the government has not yet been formally released to the public, further clarification is needed to verify the exact scope of affected materials. Crucially, the leaked written draft of the regulation does not actually mention "ferroalloys" at all. The term "ferroalloy" ( paduan besi ) was only verbally highlighted and presented by President Prabowo during the House of Representatives Plenary Session (Rapat Paripurna DPR) on Wednesday (20/5). According to the leaked draft text, the actual written scope of the law is structured as follows: CHAPTER II: DETERMINATION OF STRATEGIC NATURAL RESOURCE COMMODITIES Article 2 (1) Strategic Natural Resource Commodities subject to export governance include: a. coal; b. palm oil; and c. other strategic natural resource commodities. (2) The Government may amend the Strategic Natural Resource Commodities as referred to in paragraph (1) letters a and b, and establish other Strategic Natural Resource Commodities as referred to in letter c through a coordinated meeting ( rapat koordinasi ) led by: a. the minister responsible for synchronization, coordination, and control of ministerial affairs in the field of the economy ( Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs / Menko Perekonomian ); or b. the minister responsible for synchronization, coordination, and control of ministerial affairs in the field of food ( Coordinating Minister for Food / Menko Pangan ), attended by relevant ministers/heads of non-ministerial agencies. This clause reveals a crucial legal framework: any expansion of the export control list to designate NPI, FeNi, or related ferronickel alloys under "other strategic commodities" is strictly required to be determined through a formal coordinated meeting ( rapat koordinasi ) led by either the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs or the Coordinating Minister for Food. Because the written regulation itself is silent on "ferroalloys," the legal scope of the policy has not been fixed yet . Until this high-level inter-ministerial coordination meeting ( rapat koordinasi ) takes place and issues a definitive annex list with matching HS codes, the practical impact on NPI trade remains pending official confirmation. Should nickel-iron intermediates formally fall under the BUMN single-exporter mandate after this meeting, SMM foresees four critical structural disruptions: I. Erosion of Direct Negotiation Flexibility Currently, Indonesian NPI is sold through a highly flexible ecosystem of steel mills, global trading desks, independent brokers, and back-to-back supply contracts. Forcing these contracts to route through a single state exporter compresses the operational room for direct price discovery, spot volume locking, and rapid high-frequency reselling. II. Absolute Export Price Transparency By funneling all sales contracts, shipping invoices, and foreign exchange collection (DHE) through state-owned channels, the Indonesian government will gain real-time, absolute transparency over actual transaction prices. This complements Indonesia's ongoing tightening of domestic mining benchmarks (HPM), the annual RKAB quota system, and the strict requirement for export proceeds to be held in domestic bank accounts. III. Disintermediation of Traders and Brokers In-transit or port-stored nickel-iron inventories have historically served as highly liquid financial assets for brokers and traders who leverage transfer orders and back-to-back contracts. Standardizing all contract entities and payment channels under BUMN will squeeze the margins of non-producing traders, rendering physical spot market quotes highly rigid. IV. Export Execution Delays Migrating long-term off-take agreements to BUMN templates will trigger significant friction during the Phase 1 transition. SMM expects delays stemming from contract re-signings, banking channel adjustments, letter of credit (L/C) re-issuances, and initial administrative coordination at port customs, temporarily disrupting short-term port-arrival schedules. 4. Market and Price Impact Analysis (If NPI were to be Involved) Short-Term Sentiment vs. Medium-Term Realities Short-Term (Sentiment-Driven): The direct impact on physical NPI shipping volumes returning to China will remain limited during the initial transition window, as private exporters continue to assist with logistics. However, given tight domestic nickel ore supplies, production cuts at several RKEF plants, and already declining NPI shipments, the market will likely digest this announcement as a fresh supply-side threat, driving up bullish sentiment. Medium-Term (Structural Shifts): If NPI is formally included in the HS code list, Chinese stainless steel mills will face centralized Indonesian state sellers. This will result in stronger payment scrutiny, fewer options for non-standard flexible transactions, and the virtual elimination of low-cost, off-market FOB deals. Transaction Costs vs. Production Costs Unlike mining-end disruptions such as rising HPM benchmarks, declining laterite ore grades, or restricted RKAB quotas, this export centralization policy does not directly raise the physical smelting cost of NPI. Instead, it functions as a tax on transaction efficiency, increasing compliance burdens, administrative delays, and state oversight on pricing. SMM concludes that the impact of this policy is an increase in "transaction-side friction" rather than raw production costs, which will ultimately support sellers' intentions to hold prices firm and reinforce the price rigidity of high-nickel pig iron. 5. SMM Outlook Indonesia’s new export regulation signals that its resource nationalism is successfully extending its reach beyond the mine gate and tax office, directly into the global sales and trading arena. However, the key takeaway is that nothing is legally set in stone for the nickel industry yet. Because the written regulation currently leaves the door open under "other strategic commodities," and the word "ferroalloy" was only delivered verbally by the President on Wednesday (20/5), the entire framework remains unfixed. The critical indicator for the nickel chain over the coming weeks is whether the upcoming inter-ministerial rapat koordinasi formally adopts the HS codes for NPI and FeNi into the final regulatory annex.