This week, ferrous metals exhibited a pattern of initial weakness followed by strength. At the beginning of the week, after the U.S.-Iran peace talks failed to reach an agreement, the U.S. military announced it would impose a blockade on all maritime traffic in and out of Iranian ports, pushing international oil prices higher once again. Mid-week, disturbances from iron ore long-term contract negotiations intensified, with market rumors suggesting that restrictions on certain previously limited products had been partially lifted. Subsequently, news emerged of an unexpected shutdown at an Australian refinery, raising market concerns that a diesel supply deficit could trigger mine shutdowns, which in turn would lead to short-term supply tightening. Coupled with rising expectations of a second round of coke price increases, ferrous metals successfully rallied in the latter half of the week...

[SMM Nickel Flash] The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI rose 5.15 yuan/nickel unit WoW to 1,085.4 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), while the average Indonesian NPI FOB index price rose 1.5 $/nickel unit WoW to 138.51 $/nickel unit. The high-grade NPI market exhibited a "dip-then-rally" trend this week. Prices edged down at the beginning of the week due to weak end-use demand, but subsequently, driven by multiple favorable factors, market activity picked up notably and the price center shifted gradually upward.

This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China was flat MoM at 64.7%. such as can stock, energy storage, and automobiles. However, aluminum prices fluctuated at highs, exports to the Middle East were impeded, and some end-use consumption recovered less than expected, limiting upside room for the operating rate. The industry exhibited the characteristics of “steady with progress and structural divergence.”

[SMM Rare Earth Weekly Review: Rare Earth Prices Continued to Rise This Week, Market Trading Activity Increased] Pr-Nd oxide market prices, supported by raw material costs and expectations of reduced upstream supply, saw a notable increase in downstream purchasing activity. Suppliers raised their offers one after another, and low-priced supplies tightened rapidly. As of today, Pr-Nd oxide prices rose to 773,000-778,000 yuan/mt over the week.

[SMM Rare Earth News Flash] Affected by multiple factors, as of 12:00 PM today, spot Pr-Nd oxide was quoted at 775,000-780,000 yuan/mt, up about 15,000 yuan/mt from 11:00 AM yesterday. Spot Pr-Nd alloy was quoted at 935,000-950,000 yuan/mt, up 17,500 yuan/mt from yesterday. According to SMM, at current prices, some transactions had been concluded below the average Pr-Nd alloy price of 940,000-942,500 yuan/mt, as downstream end-use demand gradually strengthened and acceptance of high-priced raw materials progressively improved.

[SMM Analysis]Return to Work Drove a Sharp Rise in the Operating Rate of Secondary Aluminum Producers in March, Expected to Decline in April

[SMM Rare Earth News Flash] According to data released by CAAM, China's automobile production in March 2026 reached 2.917 million units, of which NEV production was 1.231 million units and internal combustion engine vehicles 1.686 million units. According to the SMM end-use demand model, NdFeB consumption from NEVs in March 2026 was 5,260.8 mt, and NdFeB consumption from internal combustion engine vehicles was 534.2 mt. Both NdFeB consumption from NEVs and internal combustion engine vehicles increased YoY and MoM.

Stainless steel spot prices rose this week, but production costs pulled back somewhat, narrowing the degree of cost-price inversion for stainless steel mills. Taking 304 cold-rolled products as an example, based on same-day raw material prices, the full cost profit margin was -0.36% this week; calculated using inventory raw material costs, the margin was -0.83%. Nickel-based raw material costs: high-grade NPI prices remained in the doldrums this week. Stainless steel enterprises continued their earlier cautious purchasing strategy, and recent high-grade NPI transactions remained sluggish. Although high-grade NPI still had cost support, offer prices continued to edge lower under shipment pressure. As of this Friday, high-grade NPI with a grade of 10-12% fell 1.5 yuan per nickel unit, closing at 1,080 yuan/nickel unit. Stainless steel scrap market: stainless steel scrap prices remained generally stable this week. Although SS futures performed strongly, the transmission effect on stainless steel spot prices was limited, and scrap prices saw no significant boost. On the alternative raw material front, high-grade NPI was weak and ferrochrome prices declined, providing limited support for stainless steel scrap. The cost-effectiveness advantage of stainless steel scrap still existed, and rising stainless steel finished product prices also provided some support. However, strong cost pressure on steel mills, their strong desire to bargain down prices, and weak market demand collectively constrained price increases. Prices are expected to remain stable in the short term. As of this Friday, 304 off-cuts prices in Shanghai remained stable, with the latest quote at approximately 10,150 yuan/mt. Chromium-based raw material costs: high-carbon ferrochrome prices continued their downward trend this week. Although April stainless steel planned production remained at a high level, insufficient end-use demand support made it difficult for stainless steel prices to rise, which in turn weighed on market expectations. In addition, the production cut plans previously set by ferrochrome producers have had limited effect so far, and ferrochrome supply remained at a high level. Recent market transactions were overall sluggish, and producers had to slightly lower their offer prices under shipment pressure. As of this Friday, high-carbon ferrochrome prices in Inner Mongolia fell 75 yuan/mt (50% metal content) WoW, closing at 8,550 yuan/mt (50% metal content).

SMM Nickel News, April 10: Macro and market news: (1) Data from the NBS showed that in March, consumer demand pulled back seasonally after the extended Chinese New Year holiday, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) down 0.7% MoM and up 1.0% YoY. (2) Sources said that Iran had informed Pakistan, the mediator in the negotiations, that the Iranian delegation would not participate in peace talks with the US until a ceasefire was achieved in Lebanon. Previously, on April 9, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Sayed Khatibzadeh said the Iranian delegation would head to Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, for negotiations. Spot market: On April 10, SMM #1 refined nickel prices rose 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums: Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 3,350 yuan/mt, flat from the previous trading day; mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -400 to 400 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract surged in the morning session before pulling back slightly, closing at 133,210 yuan/mt, down 0.72%. In the short term, Indonesia's policy tightening and cost support have built a solid floor for nickel prices, but high inventory and weak end-use demand capped upside room. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Silicone Weekly Review: Supported by Cost and Emission Reduction Among Other Factors, Silicone DMC Prices Still on the Rise] This week, China's silicone DMC mainstream transaction range was 14,500-14,800 yuan/mt, up 200 yuan/mt WoW, with the transaction center leaning toward the lower end. Regionally, Shandong monomer enterprises suspended quotations starting yesterday, with the last quoted price at 14,500 yuan/mt, up 100 yuan/mt WoW; mainstream quotations in other regions were 14,500 yuan/mt, with individual enterprises quoting 14,600-14,800 yuan/mt.