SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight LME copper opened at $14,208/mt, touched a high of $14,218/mt in early fluctuations, then drifted lower all the way to $14,142/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $14,153/mt, up 0.23%. Trading volume was 15,700 lots, and open interest stood at 261,000 lots, an increase of 2,675 lots from the previous trading day, indicating an increase in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 108,200 yuan/mt, with the price center moving up to touch 108,320 yuan/mt in early trading, then drifting lower to a low of 107,900 yuan/mt, before closing at 108,000 yuan/mt, up 0.04%. Trading volume reached 21,000 lots, and open interest was 213,000 lots, a decrease of 1,714 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a decrease in bearish positions.

SMM, August 6: In Guangdong, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 90 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 10 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt; and SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 50 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 107,900 yuan/mt, up 910 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 107,820 yuan/mt, up 930 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory increased again, mainly due to higher arrivals and weaker consumption. Copper prices continued to rise and hit a recent high, so downstream enterprises purchased cautiously, and suppliers had to keep lowering prices to sell, but transactions remained sluggish. In Guangdong, the electrolytic copper purchase sentiment index was 2.30, down 0.1 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment index was 2.83, up 0.02 (historical data can be accessed via the database query). Overall, with copper prices hitting a recent high, downstream buyers were unwilling to purchase, and suppliers had to cut prices to sell, resulting in lackluster trading.

SMM August 5: Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper at 110 yuan/mt (up 10 yuan/mt), standard-quality copper at a premium of 30 yuan/mt (up 30 yuan/mt), SX-EW copper at a discount of 30 yuan/mt (up 30 yuan/mt). Guangdong #1 copper cathode averaged 106,990 yuan/mt (up 450 yuan/mt), SX-EW copper averaged 106,890 yuan/mt (up 460 yuan/mt). Spot market: Guangdong inventory ended a two-day increase streak and declined again, mainly due to reduced arrivals; some smelters were reportedly preparing for export. With inventory drawdown, suppliers actively held prices firm, but constrained by sustained copper price rises, downstream users were cautious in purchasing, and spot trades were poor. Today, buying sentiment for electrolytic copper in Guangdong was at 2.40 (down 0.02), and selling sentiment at 2.81 (down 0.04) (Historical data can be viewed by logging into the SMM database). Overall, with declining inventory, suppliers held prices firm, but cautious downstream procurement led to overall poor trades.

SMM Morning Briefing: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,754.5/mt, dipped to a low of $13,740/mt in early trading, then its center rose to a high of $13,836/mt, subsequently moved sideways and eventually closed at $13,978.5/mt, up 1.3%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest stood at 246,000 lots, a decrease of 342 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight the most-traded SHFE copper 2609 contract opened at 105,370 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 105,250 yuan/mt early in the session, then its center rose to a high of 105,750 yuan/mt, eventually moved sideways to close at 105,560 yuan/mt, up 0.75%. Trading volume reached 40,000 lots, and open interest stood at 197,000 lots, an increase of 1,132 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting an increase in bullish positions.

SMM July 22 News: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper quoted at 170 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper quoted at a premium of 80 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper quoted at a premium of 20 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 104,865 yuan/mt, up 685 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 104,760 yuan/mt, up 685 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory edged up today, mainly due to increased arrivals and reduced warehouse withdrawals. With higher inventory and a notable rebound in copper prices, suppliers found it difficult to hold prices firm and could only sell at levels maintained from yesterday, while downstream users merely purchased as needed, resulting in overall trading activity weaker than yesterday. The purchasing sentiment for electrolytic copper in Guangdong today was 2.61, down 0.05 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 2.85, down 0.05 from the previous trading day (historical data can be accessed via the database). Overall, the rebound in copper prices dampened restocking enthusiasm among downstream buyers, and spot trades were weaker than yesterday.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to next week, the inter-month spread has fully shifted to a backwardation structure, with the backwardation widening to 20-90 yuan/mt. Suppliers are showing strong sentiment to hold back from selling, while social inventory continues to destock rapidly, leaving the pattern of tight available spot cargo unchanged. Overall, under the combined support of the backwardation structure, inventory destocking, and supplier reluctance to sell, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2607 contract are expected to remain at a premium next week, with the overall strength persisting. Attention should be paid to changes in market structure around delivery and the pace of downstream restocking.

SMM July 1 Report: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at 0 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average SX-EW copper price was 102,135 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory had increased for nine consecutive days, mainly due to weak consumption and increased arrivals. Entering July, suppliers stopped lowering prices to sell and instead held prices firm. As a result, spot premiums surged sharply. Transaction prices for standard-quality copper ranged from -10 yuan/mt to 0 yuan/mt. Due to the excessively rapid and steep increase in premiums, overall trading only improved slightly compared with yesterday. Today, the electrolytic copper purchasing sentiment in Guangdong stood at 2.45, edging up 0.05 from the previous trading day, while the selling sentiment was 2.89, up 0.06 (historical data can be queried by logging into the database). Overall, in July, suppliers shifted from cutting prices to holding prices firm, fueling a sharp increase in premiums.

[Yihao New Materials: 2025 Net Loss of RMB 58.6219 Million Widened 50.85% YoY, HVLP Copper Foil Still in Sample Testing Stage] Yihao New Materials announced that the cumulative deviation in its closing price increase over the two consecutive trading days on June 15 and June 16, 2026, reached 30%, constituting abnormal fluctuation in stock trading. After self-inspection, the company stated that previously disclosed information requires no correction or supplement; there have been no significant changes in recent production and operations or in the internal and external business environment; the controlling shareholder and actual controller have no undisclosed matters that should have been disclosed, and did not trade the company’s shares during the fluctuation period. The company warned of risks, noting that its net loss attributable to shareholders of the listed company for 2025 was RMB 58.6219 million, a loss that widened by 50.85% YoY compared to 2024, and its overall performance was weaker than the industry average. The certification progress for its HVLP copper foil is slower than some of its peers; it is currently in the sample testing, analysis, and certification stage and has not yet generated revenue. In addition, the second-phase 5,500-mt production line of the “High-Precision Electrolytic Copper Foil Project with an Annual Capacity of 10,000 mt” raised investment project is advancing equipment installation and commissioning, and the commissioning time is subject to uncertainty.

On April 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) stood at -81.44 USD/dmt, down 2.83 USD/dmt from the previous reading of -78.61 USD/dmt. The deeply negative TC reflects the tightness in the global copper concentrate market, which has already shifted from market expectations to an actual rigid contraction in supply. In the first quarter of 2026, the world's leading mining companies frequently revised down their production guidance, with supply-side disruptions far exceeding early-year forecasts. Freeport significantly lowered its full-year 2026 copper production forecast from 1.542 million tonnes to approximately 1.406 million tonnes, with an expected recovery rate of only 65%, due to slower-than-expected mine recovery at its Grasberg site in Indonesia, affected by mudslides and ore moisture. In addition, road blockades caused by strikes at BHP's Escondida and Zaldivar mines have led to actual production impacts that remain to be monitored. According to SMM exclusive data, the global copper concentrate deficit in 2026 is estimated at 317,000 metal tonnes, a situation that may ease somewhat in 2029. In stark contrast to the persistently falling TC, domestic smelter operating rates remained high in Q1 2026. According to SMM data, China's electrolytic copper output in March 2026 reached 1.2061 million tonnes, up 5.58% month-on-month and 7.49% year-on-year. In Q1 2026, total electrolytic copper output was 3.5278 million tonnes, up 4.60% quarter-on-quarter and 10.45% year-on-year. SMM survey data shows that 11 smelters have confirmed maintenance schedules for Q2 2026. This means that domestic electrolytic copper output is expected to decline in Q2, with spot supplies likely tightening temporarily in May and June. However, some smelters have reported that due to high sulfuric acid prices, maintenance completion times may be brought forward. Sulfuric acid is currently the most important by-product revenue source for the copper smelting industry. According to SMM data, on April 24, 2026, China's copper smelting acid index stood at 1,660.5 RMB/ton, up 31.5 RMB/ton from the previous period. As sulfuric acid revenues have risen steadily from 890 RMB/ton at the start of 2026 to 1,660.5 RMB/ton in April 2026, based on the co-production of 3–4.5 tonnes of sulfuric acid per tonne of electrolytic copper, sulfuric acid income can now cover the copper concentrate procurement cost and part of the processing cost for smelters. The upward slope and magnitude of this increase exceed the deterioration in spot TC. The substantial boost in sulfuric acid profitability allows smelters to tolerate lower TC, creating a cycle of "higher sulfuric acid prices, lower TC." Meanwhile, rising gold and silver prices have further expanded smelters' comprehensive profit margins. Although the copper smelting segment is deeply loss-making, driven by the hefty profits from sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, domestic copper smelters have been able to maintain high operating rates without large-scale production cuts caused by deeply negative TC. Additionally, about 20% of the world's electrolytic copper comes from hydrometallurgical processes, with the DRC and Chile together accounting for nearly 80% of that. Hydrometallurgical copper production consumes large amounts of sulfuric acid, and sulfur is a key raw material for sulfuric acid. The current disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has cut off approximately 50–60% of Middle Eastern sulfur shipments by sea, pushing up sulfur and sulfuric acid prices. Worth noting is that as late April 2026 progresses, sulfuric acid export restrictions combined with increased domestic production have shown signs of price softening. If sulfuric acid prices continue to decline, it will directly squeeze the comprehensive profit margins of domestic smelters. At that point, the dual pressure of persistently low TC and falling sulfuric acid prices could trigger real production cuts on the smelting side. Although gold and silver prices do not directly determine TC trends, their macro-pricing logic as part of the non-ferrous metals sector is worth attention. The market has largely priced in the expectation that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at all in 2026, with the first rate cut possibly delayed until July 2027. For copper, a delayed rate cut means no near-term easing of macro liquidity, but copper's core pricing logic remains the ongoing tug-of-war between tightening supply on the mining side and rigid demand. In other words, precious metals are under pressure, but industrial metals' pricing center remains in real supply-demand fundamentals, which explains why weaker gold and silver prices have not dragged copper prices lower. According to SMM, for Chinese smelters, domestic copper concentrate spot TC transactions are feasible in the range of -81 USD/dmt to -88 USD/dmt. Some holders have attempted to offer TC at -100 USD/dmt, while some smelters are willing to accept deliveries at the lower end around -90 USD/dmt. The downward trend in TC has not yet stopped, and smelter purchasing activity may have weakened slightly, but not significantly. Key areas to watch moving forward: Sulfuric acid side: The price trend will depend on the interplay of multiple factors. First, China's sulfuric acid export policy direction: if export restrictions continue, domestic sulfuric acid supply will be relatively abundant, and prices may fall from highs; if exports are temporarily allowed, overseas hydrometallurgical copper supply risks will rise, but domestic sulfuric acid prices may find support. Second, the recovery of sulfur supply: when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal will directly affect the pace at which Middle Eastern sulfur can supplement global markets. Third, seasonal demand changes for downstream products such as phosphate fertilizers will also cause periodic price volatility for sulfuric acid. Mining side: Focus on the progress of the Grasberg conversion project, labor negotiation results at Chilean mines, and logistics stability at mines such as Las Bambas in Peru. Any new supply release will effectively ease TC pressure. Macro side: Monitor the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path, the U.S. dollar index, the actual driving effect of China's pro-growth policies on copper consumption, and whether the growth rate of copper demand in global new energy sectors is slowing marginally.

First, multi-material indexation has become normal practice in domestic cell pricing. However, passing these costs through to project owners is far from smooth. Second, the adjustment cycle in overseas markets is shortening. Yet even a lithium-carbonate-only linkage faces resistance at the owner level. Third, cost pressure is concentrating heavily at the integration stage.