[SMM Analysis] Overseas HRC prices Declined More Than Chinese Prices; Overall Procurement Demand Continued to Weaken Passive Contraction in China–Foreign HRC Price Spreads and Blocked Export Channels Price spread models showed entirely diverging trends. Steel billet price spreads were relatively stable, while HRC spreads continued to contract. The China–India HRC spread, after a streak of declines in mid-June, recently plunged to -36, an all-time low in the table. This figure was not only far above the quarterly average of -65, but also well below the current monthly average of -49. The root cause is not a sharp slide in Chinese export prices, but rather extremely weak Indian domestic demand. To defend their domestic market share and digest surplus production, local steel mills in India adopted a highly aggressive "defensive price-slashing" strategy. Meanwhile, given the domestic supply-demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand, there is still room for further downside in Indian domestic steel prices in the near term, and the China–India spread will hover at lows. Data source: SMM Monsoon Rains Suppressed Downstream Demand; Indian Steel Market Was in the Doldrums Weighed down by the traditional demand off-season due to the monsoon rainy season and generally very cautious purchasing attitudes among buyers, Indian long steel prices remained under pressure last week. Rebar EXW prices dropped notably to around $630/mt EXW, hitting the lowest level since May. In contrast, Raipur billet showed slightly more resilience, with prices edging up about $2/mt to around $453/mt EXW. This was mainly supported by a boost from earlier transactions and short-term support from buoyant sentiment in surrounding markets, though current spot procurement remained cautious and restrained. Notably, Chhattisgarh has planned to raise electricity prices, which is expected to push up the production cost of electric furnace billet by about $3–4/mt starting in July, providing some cost support. Overall, the Indian steel market will continue to face a mix of weak demand and cost support in the near term, and prices are expected to remain on a weak fluctuating trend. Off-Season Suppressed Rigid Demand and Shipping Disrupted: Southeast Asian Steel Market Stayed in the Doldrums Short-Term Due to seasonal factors, construction activity rates in core Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Thailand have recently been low, directly limiting the release of rigid demand for long products like rebar and wire rod. Currently, major local mills' rebar EXW prices in Southeast Asia were generally weak, ranging between $520–535/mt EXW. Meanwhile, due to persistently subdued sentiment in end-user buying, destocking in the market remained relatively slow. Facing the current weak market, most buyers chose to wait and see, with purchasing strategies mostly centered on "purchasing as needed and buying just enough for immediate use." Additionally, stimulated by progress in US–Iran negotiations and news that the Strait of Hormuz may reopen, buyers in the Southeast Asian market grew more expectant of a pullback in ocean freight rates. Driven by the desire to "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn," this expectation further amplified the market's bearish and wait-and-see sentiment. Still, the actual easing of shipping pressures stemming from geopolitical issues will take some time, and international freight rates are expected to remain mainly high and volatile in the short term. New Quotas Taking Effect on 1 July Prompted Full Buyer Wait-and-See; European HRC Trading Mediocre, Import Offers Weakened MoM Last week, the overall European steel market was relatively mediocre, with sellers and buyers locked in deep standoffs ahead of the policy window period, and both spot and import markets were subdued: In Germany, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with August–September delivery remained at €680–700/mt EXW. In Italy, mainstream transaction prices for HRC with July–August delivery were at €670–680/mt EXW. Most European buyers generally chose to refrain from booking and are fully waiting for the new import quota system that will officially take effect on 1 July. End-users and traders are eager to assess the actual restrictive impact of the new policy on future import volumes in order to readjust their procurement strategies. At the same time, hit by a double blow from sluggish European domestic demand and uncertainty over the quota policy, steel import activity in Europe also dropped to a freezing point. At present, HRC offers for August shipment from Turkey and Asia to Europe have pulled back to €640–650/mt DDP. With a lack of buyer support, overseas mills' forward export offers showed clear signs of weakening on a MoM basis. Copyright and Intellectual Property Statement: This report is independently created or compiled by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "SMM"), and SMM legally enjoys complete copyright and related intellectual property rights. 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According to foreign media reports, the Mozambican government stated that it is currently negotiating the future of the Mozal aluminum smelter, Mozambique's largest industrial facility. Due to high electricity prices, the smelter has been undergoing maintenance since its shutdown in March. Mozambican government spokesperson Salim Valá confirmed that the government is in discussions with relevant parties but did not disclose details, stating that the process is still ongoing. Previously, South32 (which holds a 63.7% stake in the Mozal smelter) stated that it was evaluating different options for the smelter and did not rule out the possibility of restarting the project in the future if the situation improves.

News Release, June 18, 2026: The chrome market maintained a downward trend this week, with ample supply and sluggish demand across the board. Market confidence remains weak, and most participants hold bearish expectations.

On June 16, State Grid Shandong Electric Power released the May 2026 electricity market information briefing. The document shows that the settlement reference price for PV mechanism electricity prices that month was 51.042 yuan per megawatt hour. Details are as follows:

Since 2017, Vietnam’s solar market has grown rapidly under strong policy support, especially feed-in tariff incentives. This drove fast capacity expansion but also exposed grid constraints as development outpaced transmission infrastructure. As subsidies gradually phased out, market logic shifted from policy-driven growth to energy security and system stability.

Baotou City is promoting the transformation of its traditional advantageous industries into future-oriented industries, accelerating the formation of a complete industrial chain encompassing "new energy development—direct green electricity supply—electrolytic aluminum production." On the large screen of the Baotou Aluminum Industry Smart Energy Control Center, wind turbine blades can be seen slowly rotating deep in the grasslands 200 kilometers away. Dispatcher Xu Junxia, ​​pointing to the dynamically optimized dispatch curve, explained that the company has now shifted from production based on electricity demand to production based on electricity consumption, with green electricity now accounting for 33%. "Based on the trend of electricity prices in our spot market, we are maximizing the absorption of new energy sources and improving the overall electricity and energy consumption structure."

Brussels is considering extending free ETS certificate allocations beyond the originally planned 2036 phase-out, which would continue to benefit blast furnace producers while leaving early adopters of cleaner electric arc furnace technology largely uncompensated, creating perverse incentives. The proposal has exposed a deep dilemma within Germany's IG Metall union, which represents workers at both blast furnace and EAF facilities with diametrically opposed interests; Saarland's union chapter vocally opposes ETS dilution while the national Berlin organization has remained silent on the issue. Meanwhile, WV Stahl is demanding permanent electricity price relief to EUR 50/MWh, with critics noting this would ultimately be funded by German taxpayers. In base metals, Asian and European markets posted broad gains on Friday, with zinc leading at over 2%.

As of June 9, the operating rate of 50 EAF steel mills in China mainly producing construction steel stood at 40.9%, down 0.30% WoW; the capacity utilization rate was 42.33%, down 0.37% WoW; and daily average construction steel production reached 94,300 mt, down 800 mt WoW.

Developing local processing capacity is not simply a matter of building another plant next to a mine. It requires a country to simultaneously possess reliable energy supply, logistics infrastructure, chemical-industry capabilities, engineering expertise, customer qualification systems, access to financing, policy continuity and transparent pricing mechanisms. Resources can attract investment, but they cannot guarantee project success.

[SMM Chrome Daily: Sluggish Transactions, Bearish Expectations] June 8, 2026 news: Ferrochrome and chrome ore markets fluctuated slightly...