By 2026, China's new energy vehicle market has evolved from an early-stage race over electric motors, batteries, and electronic controls into a systemic contest centered on battery technology roadmaps, supply chain depth, and cost-control capabilities. Leading domestic players — NIO, Li Auto, XPeng, BYD, and Leapmotor — have each charted a distinctly different path in their battery strategies. What lies beneath these divergent choices is not merely a matter of technical preference, but a reflection of fundamentally different business models, brand identities, and competitive philosophies. NIO: Anchored by Battery Swapping, Building a Multi-Supplier, Multi-Chemistry Matrix NIO's battery strategy stands apart within the industry. At its core is not the choice of a single supplier or chemistry, but rather a battery-swapping network serving as infrastructure, upwardly compatible with battery packs of varying capacities, chemistries, and suppliers. Currently, NIO's lineup runs primarily on 75 kWh and 100 kWh packs, while a higher-energy-density 150 kWh semi-solid-state pack, produced by WeLion New Energy, has already entered volume production and deployment. On the chemistry front, certain NIO models employ a hybrid cell arrangement blending ternary lithium and LFP cells — the LFP cells provide foundational range and cost advantages, while the ternary cells serve as a state-of-charge reference, addressing the well-known pain point of inaccurate SOC estimation inherent to LFP's flat voltage curve. On the supplier side, CATL has long held a core position, with CALB and WeLion also playing significant roles in the supply chain. In early 2026, NIO and CATL further signed a five-year comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement covering long-life batteries, swap-station compatibility, and overseas market expansion. For the full year 2025, NIO Group delivered 326,000 vehicles, up 46.9% year-on-year, and achieved its first quarterly operating profit in Q4 — signaling that its battery-swapping business model is beginning to enter a virtuous cycle. The ramp-up of its two sub-brands, ONVO and Firefly, has further amplified the scale effects of the swapping ecosystem, diluting the per-unit cost of infrastructure. Li Auto: EREV-Led, BEV in Pursuit — Deep Supplier Ties and the Shift Toward In-House Development Li Auto's battery strategy presents a sharp contrast to NIO's. Where NIO pursues breadth in its swapping network and flexibility in battery pack compatibility, Li Auto places greater emphasis on deep ties with top-tier suppliers and meticulous cost-side management. Li Auto's EREV models have long relied on ternary lithium batteries as their primary solution and are now progressively introducing LFP to optimize vehicle cost structures. In the pure-electric domain, the flagship MPV MEGA carries a high-performance ternary pack co-developed with CATL; in 2025, the i6 electric SUV formally adopted a dual-supplier model, sourcing from both CATL and Sunwoda for complementary supply. More significantly, in September 2025, Li Auto and Sunwoda jointly established a battery company, marking a definitive shift from a procurement relationship to one of equity-linked co-development. In May 2026, Li Auto delivered 33,350 vehicles, with the i6 surpassing 20,000 monthly deliveries for the third consecutive month and ranking among the top three electric SUVs by volume, while the EREV L-series remained its sales backbone. With "family comfort" as its core brand proposition, Li Auto's battery strategy has always served a single through-line: eliminating range anxiety while optimizing total cost of ownership — pragmatic and focused. XPeng: LFP as the Mainstay, a Three-Supplier Landscape Taking Shape, and the Dual-Powertrain Strategy Accelerating XPeng's battery strategy is centered on LFP, with a stable landscape of three core suppliers: CALB, EVE Energy, and FinDreams Battery (BYD). CALB has been one of XPeng's first-tier battery suppliers since 2021 and has long held the dominant share. In September 2025, EVE Energy formally entered XPeng's MONA series supply chain, providing prismatic cell solutions for base MONA variants, while longer-range versions continue to use BYD FinDreams cells. XPeng's technology identity has always revolved around full-stack self-developed AI — spanning advanced intelligent driving, proprietary chips, and large-model integration — which gives its battery strategy a notably pragmatic character: choose a mature, safe, and cost-controllable LFP route so that more resources can be concentrated on its core competence in intelligence. Since 2025, XPeng has fully embraced a dual-powertrain strategy of BEV plus EREV, with the addition of range-extender models introducing new variables to its battery demand structure. In May 2026, XPeng Group delivered 32,158 vehicles, with the flagship SUV GX becoming a core incremental contributor right from its debut, while the MONA series and P7+ continued to scale, validating the market appeal of its "technology for all" positioning. BYD: Full Vertical Integration as the Ultimate Moat If NIO, Li Auto, and XPeng respectively embody the brand paths of "service-driven battery swapping," "family comfort," and "technology intelligence," then BYD's defining label points squarely at vertical integration. From FinDreams battery cells and FinDreams Powertrain motors and electronic controls, to in-house IGBT and SiC power semiconductors, BYD has mastered the manufacturing of virtually every core component in a new energy vehicle — a level of supply chain depth unmatched both domestically and globally. The Blade Battery, BYD's signature technology, builds on an LFP foundation and achieves a balance of safety and energy density through structural innovation; it has now achieved scaled deployment across the entire lineup. On the cost side, the scale effects of selling 4.6 million units in 2025 have endowed BYD with extreme supply chain bargaining power. On the technology side, the "Eye of the Gods" advanced driver-assistance system has been deployed in over 2.5 million vehicles, generating more than 160 million kilometers of real-world driving data daily — a data flywheel that competitors will find difficult to replicate. In 2025, BYD's battery-electric vehicle sales reached 2.26 million units, surpassing Tesla (approximately 1.63 million) for the first time to claim the global BEV sales crown. From the Seagull at RMB 70,000 to the Yangwang at over RMB 1 million, from city commuters to hardcore off-roaders, BYD has built the world's most complete new energy product matrix, with its multi-brand strategy covering every mainstream price band and use case. Leapmotor: Full-Stack Self-Development Driving Extreme Value, Multi-Supplier Strategy Fueling the Volume Leap Leapmotor has emerged as a dark horse that can no longer be ignored among China's new-energy startups. Its battery strategy is defined by a clear formula: all-LFP plus parallel multi-sourcing, with core cell suppliers including Gotion High-Tech and CALB, among others — different batches of the same model may mix cells from different brands, but core parameters remain consistent. In November 2025, Leapmotor and CALB jointly established a battery factory, signaling Leapmotor's progression from multi-source procurement toward equity-linked core-supplier relationships. Leapmotor's true moat lies in its full-stack self-development approach — over 65% of core components are developed in-house, spanning electric drives, battery BMS, intelligent cockpits, and autonomous-driving chips. This is what enables Leapmotor to deliver extreme value in the RMB 100,000–200,000 mainstream price band. In May 2026, Leapmotor delivered 81,569 vehicles, up 81% year-on-year, holding the new-energy startup sales crown for multiple consecutive months, with the one-million-unit annual target now within reach. Leapmotor's product matrix has expanded into four series — A, B, C, and D — covering sedans, SUVs, and MPVs, while overseas exports have rapidly climbed to over 37% of total volume, becoming a second engine for growth. The Industrial Logic Behind Divergent Strategies When the battery strategies of these five automakers are examined side by side, several clear industrial patterns emerge. First, LFP's dominance in the mainstream market continues to strengthen. Whether it is BYD's Blade Battery, XPeng's all-LFP lineup, Leapmotor's extreme value proposition, or Li Auto's progressive LFP adoption in its EREV models, all point to the same trend: in the RMB 100,000–250,000 core consumption band, LFP's combined advantages in cost, safety, and cycle life have made it an unshakable baseline. Second, supply chain relationships are upgrading from simple buyer-seller transactions to capital-linked co-development. The joint ventures between Li Auto and Sunwoda, between Leapmotor and CALB, and the five-year agreement between NIO and CATL are all reflections of this trend. Third, battery strategy choices are increasingly dictated by each automaker's business model: NIO's battery-swapping system demands pack standardization and compatibility; BYD's vertical integration demands in-house production; Li Auto's EREV approach imposes unique requirements on battery capacity and cost. For participants in the upstream lithium resource and battery materials industries, understanding the battery strategies of leading automakers — and the direction in which they are evolving — is a critical entry point for gauging mid- and downstream demand structures, the cadence of technology-route shifts, and the changing landscape of supply chain dynamics. In this industrial contest that remains very much at halftime, the divergence in battery strategies not only determines each automaker's cost structure and product competitiveness, but will also profoundly reshape the value distribution across the entire lithium battery supply chain.

CMR Green Technologies, India’s largest non-ferrous metal recycler, is expected to make a strong stock market debut after its IPO was subscribed more than 127 times. The INR 6.31 billion (USD 66.3 million) offering attracted strong interest from institutional, non-institutional and retail investors, while grey market premiums indicate a potential listing gain of around 36%. CMR is a leading supplier of secondary aluminum products with an estimated 42-45% share of India’s automotive cast alloy market, serving customers including Maruti Suzuki, Honda Cars India, Bajaj Auto and Hero MotoCorp. The company operates 13 recycling facilities across India and produces recycled aluminum alloys, billets and other non-ferrous metal products. Growing demand from electric vehicles, recycling initiatives and decarbonization efforts is expected to support the company’s long-term growth outlook.

On June 10, BYD Vice President Li Ke disclosed that the company’s first European plant in Szeged, Hungary, will officially start vehicle assembly production in Q4 of this year, with the first car model to be produced being the compact electric vehicle Seagull Surf. Meanwhile, construction of the previously planned factory in Turkey has been suspended, with no timetable for a restart in the short term, making the Hungary plant the top priority.

2026-06-10 15:25PM UTC While markets have been focused on the recent sharp decline in gold prices, the broader precious metals sector has also experienced significant selling pressure, with platinum-group metals suffering some of the steepest losses, according to a report from Bank of America. Both platinum and palladium recently fell to their lowest levels of the year amid continued pressure from the global economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions. Global economic weakness and Middle East tensions weigh on platinum-group metals Commodity analysts at the bank said the rally in platinum-group metals lost momentum since late January, largely due to gold’s price action and persistent economic headwinds linked to the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to weigh on industrial metals demand. Despite the recent weakness, the bank maintained its positive long-term outlook for the sector, noting that it remains constructive on gold heading into the fourth quarter. A renewed gold rally could attract investors back into platinum-group metals and help support prices. Spot platinum fell to around $1,711 per ounce, down more than 2% during the session, while palladium traded near $1,203 per ounce, up roughly 0.5%. Since the sharp selloff on Friday, platinum has lost more than 9% of its value, while palladium has fallen over 6%. Higher price targets despite weak industrial and jewelry demand Despite current pressures, Bank of America still expects platinum to average around $3,000 per ounce by the fourth quarter of 2026 through the first half of 2027. Palladium is expected to average around $2,200 per ounce during the final three months of the year. Platinum-group metals delivered strong gains during 2025 as global trade tensions and threats of tariffs on precious metals created significant disruptions in physical market liquidity. However, analysts noted that most of those concerns eased after tariff threats failed to translate into broad implementation. According to the report, the absence of tariffs resulted in more than 200,000 ounces of platinum leaving NYMEX warehouses, roughly half of the inflows recorded during the second half of 2025. Palladium, meanwhile, saw outflows in late January before flows reversed after the US Department of Commerce imposed final anti-dumping duties of 133% and countervailing duties of 109% on Russian palladium. Structural shifts in demand The bank also highlighted structural changes in demand for platinum-group metals. Platinum is expected to record a modest supply deficit this year, while palladium is forecast to remain in a slight surplus. Analysts pointed to China’s accelerating transition toward electric vehicles as a major source of market volatility, given the reduced demand for internal combustion engine vehicles that rely heavily on platinum-group metals in catalytic converters. Electric vehicles are expected to account for roughly 40% of China’s light-vehicle production this year, surpassing conventional combustion-engine vehicles for the first time. Traditional vehicles are projected to represent 36% of production, while hybrids account for 24%. Production of internal combustion vehicles in China has already fallen to approximately 14 million units in 2025, down from 21 million in 2020. By contrast, the transition to electric vehicles remains slower in Europe and the United States, particularly after Washington scaled back some of its earlier electrification initiatives. Weak jewelry demand in China Demand for platinum jewelry has also slowed, especially in China, where elevated inventories accumulated during the manufacturing boom of mid-2025 continue to pressure the market. Although some of those inventories have already been recycled, retailers still hold large stockpiles while consumer demand remains weak, raising the risk of a significant contraction in Chinese jewelry manufacturing volumes this year. Energy costs threaten South African production Despite uncertainty surrounding global demand, Bank of America believes supply-side risks could become increasingly important. The bank noted that ongoing Middle East tensions, higher energy prices, and inflationary pressures could negatively affect production, particularly in South Africa, one of the world's largest producers of platinum-group metals. South Africa relies heavily on imported oil, has limited domestic production capacity, and faces ongoing refining constraints, leaving its mining sector highly exposed to rising fuel costs. Diesel remains widely used across mining operations, transportation networks, and backup power generation, especially given the country's persistent electricity shortages. Diesel prices have surged since the conflict began, while state utility Eskom raised electricity tariffs by 8.76% beginning in April 2026, significantly increasing mining costs. In this context, Sibanye-Stillwater reported a 13% year-over-year increase in unit operating costs during the first quarter, citing persistent inflationary pressures, including higher labor and energy expenses. In trading on Wednesday, spot palladium rose 1.5% to $1,249 per ounce as of 16:14 GMT. Source： https://www.economies.com/commodities/palladium-news/palladium-attempts-to-recover-losses-as-bank-of-america-maintains-a-bullish-outlook-49044

Korean battery materials company EcoPro has officially commenced mass production of high-nickel cathode materials at its plant in Debrecen, Hungary, and has completed its first shipment, marking a significant step in the operationalization of its localized European strategy. The facility primarily produces high-nickel NCA cathode materials for electric vehicles, with initial deliveries already made to European automotive OEMs. Covering an area of approximately 440,000 square meters, the project integrates cathode material production, lithium hydroxide processing, and industrial gas supply. It has an annual production capacity of around 54,000 tonnes of cathode materials, sufficient to support approximately 600,000 electric vehicles. The company stated that it will use this launch as a starting point to gradually ramp up production and plans to supply more global automakers within the year, while also advancing the development of NCM product lines to meet diverse customer needs in Europe. Looking ahead, EcoPro is considering the construction of a second plant based on order visibility, which could more than double the site’s total capacity.

Developing local processing capacity is not simply a matter of building another plant next to a mine. It requires a country to simultaneously possess reliable energy supply, logistics infrastructure, chemical-industry capabilities, engineering expertise, customer qualification systems, access to financing, policy continuity and transparent pricing mechanisms. Resources can attract investment, but they cannot guarantee project success.

【SMM Steel】Fives Group has signed a major contract with JSW Steel's Vijayanagar Works for a new electrical steel project in Toranagallu Karnataka. The project includes three processing lines for non-grain-oriented electrical steel: one annealing and pickling line with 600000 tonnes per year capacity and two annealing and coating lines each with 270000 tonnes per year capacity. The contract was awarded through a consortium with Belgium's John Cockerill. Under the agreement Fives will design and supply annealing furnaces for all three lines supporting production for electric vehicles and industrial motors. The consortium order is valued at approximately 1.25-1.3 billion USD.

SMM June 8 News: On the metals market front: Overnight last Friday, base metals across domestic and overseas markets fell broadly. In the domestic market, SHFE tin led the decline with a drop of 5.27%, while LME tin fell 4.92%. LME copper dropped 2.78%. LME aluminum, LME zinc, and SHFE copper all fell over 1%, with LME aluminum down 1.84%, LME zinc down 1.52%, and SHFE copper down 1.84%. Declines for the remaining metals were all within 1%. The alumina main contract rose 0.65%, while the cast aluminum main contract fell 0.61%. Overnight last Friday, ferrous metals generally rose. Only stainless steel fell, with a decline of 0.14%, while the remaining metals all increased. HRC and rebar saw gains of around 0.4%, with HRC up 0.47% and rebar up 0.44%. For coking coal and coke, coking coal rose 1.73%, and coke rose 0.15%. In the precious metals market, overnight last Friday, COMEX gold fell 3.35%, recording a weekly decline of 5.21%. COMEX silver plunged 8.08%, with a weekly decline of 10.39%, marking its fourth consecutive weekly drop. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 2.93%, with a weekly decline of 0.66%. SHFE silver fell 7.43%, with a weekly decline of 3.72%. The US achieved another strong month of job growth in May, raising concerns about a potential interest rate hike later this year. As of 8:27 on June 6, the closing market data from overnight last Friday: Macro Front [Foreign Ministry Introduces Arrangements for General Secretary Xi Jinping’s Visit to North Korea] At the invitation of Kim Jong Un, State Affairs Commission Chairman of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and President of the People’s Republic of China, will pay a state visit to the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea from June 8 to 9. Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated during a regular press conference on the 5th that this visit marks General Secretary Xi Jinping’s first state visit to North Korea in seven years. During the visit, the top leaders of the two Parties and two countries will exchange views on bilateral relations and issues of common concern. In recent years, under the strategic guidance of General Secretary Xi Jinping and General Secretary Kim Jong Un, the traditional friendly and cooperative relationship between China and the DPRK has maintained sustained, healthy, and stable development, bringing tangible benefits to both countries and their peoples. This year marks the 65th anniversary of the signing of the Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance Between the People’s Republic of China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. The two sides will take this visit as an opportunity to push for greater progress in China-DPRK relations that keeps pace with the times, enhance the well-being of both peoples, and make greater contributions to peace, stability, development, and prosperity in the region and the world. (Xinhua News Agency) Domestic front: On June 5, Premier Li Qiang presided over a State Council executive meeting. The meeting pointed out the need to further strengthen forward-looking layout and increase promotion efforts based on the characteristics of future industries, to firmly grasp the initiative in development. It is necessary to solidify the technological foundation, continuously increase investment in basic research, and systematically deploy breakthroughs in original and disruptive technologies. Ecological construction must be emphasized, promoting the deep integration of industry, academia, research, and application, encouraging close cooperation between upstream and downstream segments of the industry chain, and fostering more startups and unicorn enterprises in key tracks. [Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Seeks Public Comments on the Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments)] The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice to solicit public comments on the Regulations on the Administration of Housing Provident Fund (Revised Draft for Comments). Under any of the following circumstances, an employee may withdraw the balance stored in their housing provident fund account: (1) Paying rent; (2) Purchasing, constructing, renovating, or overhauling a self-occupied dwelling; (3) Repaying the principal and interest of a housing purchase loan; (4) Decorating a self-occupied dwelling, up to a certain limit; (5) Paying property management fees for a self-occupied dwelling; (6) Retiring or leaving their post; (7) Completely losing the ability to work and terminating the labor (personnel) relationship with their employer; (8) Emigrating and settling abroad; (9) Other housing consumption circumstances approved by the State Council. (Wall Street CN) The Ministry of Transport and ten other departments issued the Three-Year Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Small and Mini Passenger Vehicle Rental (2026–2028). The plan proposes accelerating the construction of electric vehicle charging facilities in expressway service areas, with 30,000 EV charging facilities (charging guns) of 60 kW power or above to be newly built or renovated in expressway service areas (including parking areas) by year-end 2028. The plan proposes accelerating the construction of electric vehicle charging facilities in expressway service areas, with 30,000 EV charging facilities (charging guns) of 60 kW power or above to be newly built or renovated in expressway service areas (including parking areas) by year-end 2028. US Dollar front: As of overnight closing last Friday, the US dollar index rose 0.62% to 100.07. Previously released data showed strong US employment data for May. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed that non-farm payrolls added 172,000 jobs in May. Employment data for the previous two months were revised upwards, and job gains over the last three months marked the best performance in more than two years. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, with labour market resilience significantly exceeding overall market forecasts. Nick Timiraos, the Fed mouthpiece, noted that the re-acceleration of spring hiring this year will provide more ammunition for Fed officials who worry about inflation and believe current interest rates are too low to contain a new round of price pressures. Some officials recently hinted that the Fed should be ready to raise interest rates later this year, at least clawing back some of the three 25-basis-point cuts implemented in H2 last year. Those cuts were implemented to stabilize the labour market, which now looks much healthier. This jobs report will not entirely settle the debate over how much the Fed should consider raising rates later this year, but it does further suggest the case for near-term cuts has largely evaporated. The stronger argument for raising rates now comes from the inflation outlook. Multiple overlapping shocks—from AI infrastructure build-out, tariffs, and energy—could keep inflation persistently above the Fed’s 2% target, even if progress is made in restoring commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. If the Fed holds steady as inflation rises, inflation-adjusted real rates would fall. Even if the labour market is not the primary driver, this mechanism could become a key factor driving rate hike discussions. (Jin10 Data APP) Fed official Hammack stated that with the labour market appearing to be roughly balanced, a rate hike may be appropriate soon. Hammack said that while she never over-emphasizes any single data point, today’s employment report confirms again that the labour market appears to be mostly in balance. She noted the unemployment rate remains at 4.3%, which is basically consistent with what I define as maximum employment. “Given the uncertainty in the economic outlook, holding rates steady is appropriate for now. But if recent trends continue, action may soon be needed.” This essentially repeats remarks she made on June 2. (Jin10 Data APP) According to foreign media reports, May non-farm payrolls data far exceeded market expectations, and the US interest rate futures market significantly increased bets on a Fed rate hike at the December meeting. Based on data from LSEG, the rate futures market now prices in a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike in December, up from 48% before the jobs report. For the June meeting, the market still broadly expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged in the 3.50% to 3.75% range. The stronger-than-expected jobs data indicates the US labour market remains resilient, further weakening market expectations for near-term rate cuts while strengthening investor assessment that the Fed may need to resume rate hikes later to counter inflationary pressures. (Jin10 Data APP) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in June is 96.6% (compared to 96.4% before the non-farm payrolls release), with a 3.4% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged through July is 90.6%, with a 6.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point hike and a 3.2% probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut. (Jin10 Data APP) Macro front: This week, in China, data releases include the China May CPI year-over-year rate, China May PPI year-over-year rate, China May trade balance (TBD), and China May M2 money supply year-over-year rate (TBD), among others. In the US, data releases include the US May New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, US May NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, US weekly change in ADP employment for the week ending May 23, US April trade balance, US May existing home sales annualized rate, US April wholesale sales month-over-month rate, US May unadjusted CPI year-over-year rate, US May seasonally adjusted CPI month-over-month rate, US May seasonally adjusted core CPI month-over-month rate, US May unadjusted core CPI year-over-year rate, US 10-year note auction yield for June 10, US 10-year note auction bid-to-cover ratio for June 10, US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 6, US May PPI year-over-year rate, US May PPI month-over-month rate, US June preliminary one-year inflation expectations, and US June preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, among others. In Germany, data releases include the German April seasonally adjusted industrial output month-over-month rate, German April seasonally adjusted trade balance, and German May final CPI month-over-month rate, among others. In the Eurozone, data releases include the Eurozone June Sentix Investor Confidence Index, Eurozone ECB deposit facility rate for June 11, and Eurozone ECB main refinancing rate for June 11, among others. In the UK, data releases include the UK April three-month GDP month-over-month rate, UK April manufacturing output month-over-month rate, UK April seasonally adjusted goods trade balance, and UK April industrial output month-over-month rate, among others. Data including the Bank of Canada interest rate decision for June 10, French May final CPI month-over-month rate, Japan April trade balance, and Switzerland May Consumer Confidence Index will also be released. Furthermore, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and BoC Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers will hold a monetary policy press conference. The European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, and ECB President Lagarde will hold a monetary policy press conference. Crude Oil front: As of overnight closing last Friday, oil prices in both markets fell together, with WTI oil down 3% and Brent oil down 2.37%. However, both recorded weekly gains, with WTI oil up 3.31% weekly and Brent oil up 1.82% weekly. The decline in crude oil prices overnight last Friday was primarily due to reduced market perceptions of a renewed US-Iran conflict. US President Trump stated at a campaign event in Wisconsin on the 5th that the war with Iran would be ended quickly, thus removing a significant factor contributing to high prices. With the midterm elections approaching, US public opinion widely believes the US-Iran war has driven up oil prices and the cost of living, putting pressure on Republican election prospects. (CCTV) Fitch stated in a new report that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz created a logistical supply shock but did not alter the market trend. The agency expects a rapid recovery in regional production, strong supply growth from non-OPEC countries, and potentially more aggressive OPEC policies to re-trigger an oversupply situation in Q4 2026, pushing oil prices downward once the Strait reopens. Based on an assumption that the Strait of Hormuz reopens around month-end July (implying an effective closure period of five months), our baseline expectation is that Brent crude will average $87 per barrel in 2026. Significant uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing of the Strait's reopening, and the risks facing oil prices are binary. The current price increase reflects a transitory logistical supply shock rather than a permanent loss of production capacity. We expect the Strait to reopen around end-July and anticipate a significant decline in Brent prices from the highs seen between March and July. (Jin10 Data APP) According to a Bloomberg survey, OPEC crude oil production fell to its lowest level in decades in May, as the US blockade on Iran and turmoil in the Persian Gulf region continued to suppress output. OPEC oil production dropped by 1.22 million barrels per day in May (half of which came from Iran), falling to 16.33 million barrels per day, its lowest level in at least 37 years. This figure excludes the UAE, which withdrew from OPEC last month. The survey indicated Iran’s oil production plunged last month by 710,000 barrels per day to 2.34 million barrels per day, a five-year low. US Central Command continues to enforce a blockade on all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports. (Jin10 Data APP) Notably, however, the UK government has raised its domestic crude oil price forecast, believing that even if the US and Iran reach a peace deal, crude oil prices could remain around $100 per barrel through 2028, as it now anticipates energy supply recovery in the Gulf region will take longer. A new analysis warns that pressure on energy prices is higher than previously expected, amid a deteriorating global economic outlook. The UK government previously estimated Persian Gulf supply could recover about six months after the end of the war, but it now believes recovery could take as long as 14 months. (Jin10 Data APP)

After several months of technical issues and operational adjustments, the Ambatovy mining project in Madagascar has announced the gradual resumption of its nickel and cobalt production in Toamasina. As one of the largest foreign investments in the country, the project plays a significant role in the national economy. Its mining operations in the Moramanga region and processing activities in Toamasina make substantial contributions to exports and government revenues. The restart comes amid a gradual recovery in global demand for strategic metals such as nickel and cobalt, particularly driven by growing demand from the electric vehicle battery and energy storage sectors, creating new opportunities for Madagascar’s mining industry.

As resource security and decarbonization become increasingly important, major economies are strengthening efforts to retain aluminum scrap. From the EU's review of export controls and the U.S. strategic asset proposal to Japan's circular economy initiatives and policies in the UAE and South Africa, these developments could reshape global scrap flows and affect secondary aluminum markets.