The United States reported a 45.9% year-on-year reduction in imports of rolled steel during early 2026, reflecting the impact of newly implemented trade measures and heightened tariffs under Section 122. This sharp decline in foreign supply has significantly tightened the domestic market, allowing major US mills to increase spot market prices for hot-rolled coil to over $1,015 per tonne. Analysts suggest that the new tariff regime, which applies a 10% across-the-board duty on nearly all imports, is forcing a localized supply chain shift for North American manufacturers.

In a 2-1 vote on March 12, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) ruled against imposing anti-dumping and countervailing duties ('AD/CVD') on graphite anode imports from China. The decision effectively kills proposed tariffs that would have surged to 169.5% for most Chinese exporters—and averts an initial petition that sought a staggering 920% duty rate. This ruling provides a highly positive economic outlook for the US battery energy storage system ('BESS') industry, sparing the sector from severe supply chain destabilization and price volatility.

SMM, March 20: Imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 189,000 mt in January, down 0.1% MoM and up 17.1% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum imports were about 202,000 mt, up 6.6% MoM and up 0.7% YoY. In January-February 2026, China’s cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled about 391,000 mt, up 8.0% YoY. Exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 13,000 mt in January, down 64.6% MoM and up 56.6% YoY; in February, China’s primary aluminum exports were about 10,000 mt, down 24.6% MoM and up 187.9% YoY. In January-February, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled about 23,000 mt, up about 94.8% YoY. Net imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 176,000 mt in January, up 15.9% MoM and up 14.9% YoY; in February, China’s net primary aluminum imports were 192,000 mt, up 9.0% MoM and down 2.6% YoY. In January-February, China’s cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 367,000 mt, up 5.0% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) Although China’s net primary aluminum imports maintained positive growth in January-February 2026, expectations of a sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China will challenge this situation. As of March 20, SMM’s Japan MJP spot premiums for aluminum ingot stood at $255/mt, up 45.7% from month-end February. Currently, some market participants were quoting Japan MJP CIF premiums for Q2 at around $350-353/mt, up about 80% from $195/mt in Q1; the US Midwest DDP aluminum premium stood at 105.25¢/lb, equivalent to $2,110/mt. As of March 13, Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-paid premiums stood at $470/mt, up about 27.0% from month-end February, while Europe’s P1020A aluminum ingot duty-unpaid premiums stood at $375/mt, up 27.2% from month-end February. The sharp rise in regional aluminum premiums outside China is expected to divert some aluminum originally planned to flow into China, and China’s net aluminum imports are expected to decline YoY in 2026. The reason for this phenomenon lies in expectations of a contraction in aluminum supply outside China caused by reduced aluminum supply in the Middle East. As of March 20, Qatar Aluminum announced that it would maintain a 60% operating rate, involving 260,000 mt of shut capacity; Bahrain Aluminum announced the shutdown of Lines 1-3, involving about 310,000 mt of capacity. In total, 570,000 mt of aluminum capacity in the Middle East has been affected. Iran is at the center of the conflict, and the stability of its production faces severe challenges. In addition, some raw and auxiliary materials in the Middle East rely on imports, and the geopolitical conflict in the region has affected passage through the Strait of Hormuz, to some extent undermining raw material supply stability at certain aluminum plants. At present, aluminum plants in Saudi Arabia and Turkey have domestic upstream bauxite and alumina support and can achieve self-sufficiency, with room for exports; Bahrain Aluminum and Qatar Aluminum rely entirely on imported alumina, while the UAE has 2.5 million mt of alumina capacity, but its bauxite relies 100% on imports. Although Oman’s aluminum plants also depend on imported raw materials, their geographic location is outside the Strait of Hormuz, so the level of risk is relatively low. If transport routes remain closed and no new routes can be opened, aluminum production in the Middle East is expected to be significantly affected. However, according to the latest foreign media reports, Bahrain Aluminum is exporting 40-60% of its aluminum ingots through Saudi Arabia’s Port of Jeddah, with an overland transport distance of 1,400 kilometers, and UAE’s Emirates Global Aluminium is attempting to import alumina raw materials through ports in Oman. If new transport routes are opened, the production reduction risk at aluminum plants in the Middle East is expected to decline markedly. Going forward, continued attention should be paid to production developments at aluminum plants in the Middle East, transport route conditions, and trends in LME aluminum inventory.

Recently, Chengdu Xinyan Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd. completed the batch delivery of 48 hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks in the 49-mt class, marking not only a major breakthrough in the market-oriented deployment of the enterprise’s hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles, but also demonstrating its strength in large-scale operations and further accelerating Chengdu’s hydrogen energy industry toward commercialization and clustering. The delivered vehicles were manufactured by Sinotruk Chengshang and equipped with the large-power hydrogen fuel cell system independently developed by Chengdu Xinyan. With high reliability and strong load-bearing capacity, they are well suited to trunk logistics and bulk transportation scenarios. Combined with local hydrogen refueling network support and Sichuan’s expressway toll reduction and exemption policies, they can provide clients with a green, efficient, and low-cost transportation solution. As a core period of the “Chengdu-Chongqing Hydrogen Corridor,” Chengdu is accelerating the development of an ecological system spanning the entire industry chain of “production, storage, transportation, refueling, and application.” Multiple provincial- and municipal-level policies are supporting the promotion of hydrogen-powered vehicles. The operation of these heavy-duty trucks will further drive coordinated development across the upstream and downstream industry chain and foster a virtuous industrial cycle. As hydrogen energy has become a hot topic at this year’s national Two Sessions, with the industry focusing on the large-scale application of fuel cell vehicles, Chengdu Xinyan’s delivery responds to the national strategy with concrete action, supports Chengdu in building a highland for the hydrogen energy industry in western China, and injects new momentum into the region’s green transformation.

On March 12, 2026, the UK Trade Remedies Authority issued a notice announcing its affirmative final anti-dumping determination on tinplate (Tin Mill Products) originating in China. It determined that Shougang Group had a dumping margin of 27.85, an injury margin of 62.39, and an anti-dumping duty of 27.85; other exporters had a dumping margin of 49.98, an injury margin of 88.00, and an anti-dumping duty of 49.98. It recommended imposing anti-dumping duties on the products concerned from China for a period of five years. The UK HS codes of the products concerned are 7210 11 00 10, 7210 11 00 90, 7210 12 20 10, 7210 12 20 90, 7210 12 80 10, 7210 12 80 90, 7210 50 00 10, 7210 50 00 90, 7210 70 10 15, 7210 70 10 91, 7210 70 80 20, 7210 70 80 25, 7210 70 80 92, 7210 70 80 95, 7210 90 30 00, 7210 90 40 10, 7210 90 40 90, 7210 90 80 20, 7210 90 80 91, 7210 90 80 99, 7212 10 10 00, 7212 10 90 11, 7212 10 90 19, 7212 10 90 90, 7212 30 00 20, 7212 30 00 30, 7212 30 00 80, 7212 40 20 10, 7212 40 20 91, 7212 40 20 93, 7212 40 20 99, 7212 40 80 12, 7212 40 80 15, 7212 40 80 30, 7212 40 80 35, 7212 40 80 80, 7212 40 80 82, 7212 40 80 85, 7212 40 80 87, 7212 50 20 11, 7212 50 20 19, and 7212 50 20 90. The dumping investigation period was from April 1, 2023 to March 31, 2024, and the injury investigation period was from April 1, 2020 to March 31, 2024. On September 25, 2024, the UK Trade Remedies Authority issued a notice announcing the initiation of an anti-dumping investigation into tinplate originating in China, upon an application filed by UK enterprise TATA STEEL UKLIMITED. (Compiled and translated from the official website of the UK Trade Remedies Service) Original text: https://www.trade-remedies.service.gov.uk/public/case/AD0062/submission/034ccc6a-89ce-4ac3-bcd5-26464f3fc5be/

[SMM Analysis] On March 12, 2026, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) ruled against imposing tariffs on Chinese graphite imports. Below is the complete timeline of the US anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) investigations into active anode material (graphite anode) from China, the duty rates at each stage, and the latest results as of March 12, 2026.

On March 14, 2026, the Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade of Ukraine issued a notice stating that, pursuant to Resolution No. AD-598/2026/441-01 of the Commission dated March 10, 2026, it had made an affirmative final ruling in the third sunset review of the antidumping measures on steel wire ropes and cables originating in China, and decided to continue imposing antidumping duties on the products concerned for another five years at an unchanged rate of 123. The period of investigation in this case was from January 1, 2022 to March 31, 2025. The Ukrainian tariff codes of the products concerned were 7312 10 49 00, 7312 10 81 00, 7312 10 83 00, 7312 10 98 00, and 7312 10 65 00. The measures took effect from the date of publication of the notice. On August 17, 2007, Ukraine initiated an antidumping investigation into steel wire ropes and cables originating in China. On July 23, 2008, pursuant to Resolution No. AD-183/2008/143-48 of the Ukrainian Commission, Ukraine began imposing antidumping duties on the Chinese products concerned. Thereafter, Ukraine conducted two sunset reviews, and made affirmative rulings and extended the duty period on September 19, 2014 and May 28, 2020, respectively. On August 24, 2022, the Interdepartmental Commission on International Trade of Ukraine issued a notice amending the product description of Chinese steel wire ropes and cables as determined in Resolution No. AD-183/2008/143-48 dated July 23, 2008. Upon application by a Ukrainian producer, and pursuant to Resolution No. AD-582/2025/441-01 of the Commission dated May 21, 2025, Ukraine initiated the third sunset review investigation of the antidumping measures on the Chinese products concerned. (Compiled from: Ukrainian Government Website) Source: https://ukurier.gov.ua/uk/news/povidomlennya-201/

The General Court of the European Union has annulled a European Commission regulation that extended a 17.3% anti-dumping duty on Indonesian hot-rolled stainless steel sheets and coils to imports consigned from Turkey. The ruling followed a legal challenge by Turkish steel producer Çolakoğlu Metalurji. The Court determined that the Commission made an error of law by incorrectly classifying the Turkish producer's processing activities as an "assembly operation" under EU circumvention criteria, thereby invalidating the extended duties for the applicant company.

On March 4, Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co., Ltd. announced that the Marketing Company of PetroChina Company Limited recently announced the bid-winning results for its charging equipment procurement project. Sinexcel successfully won the bid, leveraging its industry-leading full-scenario charging solutions and mature service capabilities. Since 2023, Sinexcel and PetroChina have jointly deployed over 500 charging stations across nearly 200 cities nationwide, covering diverse application scenarios such as heavy-duty truck recharging, public ultra-fast charging, and highway service areas.

After the inflation report was released, Trump and Vance "joined forces" on social media to pressure the US Fed, urging the US central bank to lower interest rates as soon as possible. On Wednesday (June 11) local time, Trump posted on his social platform "Truth Social," saying, "The CPI data just came out, and it's great! The Fed should cut interest rates by a full percentage point." Trump added that if the Fed were to cut interest rates, it would significantly reduce the interest payments the US government has to make on its soon-to-expire debt, "It's so important!!!" Meanwhile, US Vice President Vance echoed on the social media platform X, "The President (Trump) has been saying this for a while, but now it's clearer: The Fed's refusal to cut interest rates is a dereliction of duty in monetary policy." Data released before the US stock market opened showed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% MoM and 2.4% YoY in May, both lower than market expectations of 0.2% and 2.5%, respectively. Excluding food and energy costs, the core CPI rose 2.8% YoY, remaining at its lowest level since March 2021 and also below market expectations of 2.9%. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote in his prepared testimony for the House Ways and Means Committee hearing, "Due to the slowdown in the increase of housing, food, and energy costs, the inflation rate is at its lowest level since 2021." Bessent also stated that due to the rise in prices over the previous four years, the living standards of Americans have declined, but under the Trump administration's policies, inflation in the US is showing significant improvement. However, it should be noted that even though the latest report is better than market expectations, the two YoY increases are still higher than the Fed's 2% inflation target. Some central bank officials have indicated that they prefer to "stay put" to observe the impact of tariffs on prices. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Fed is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision in a week, and currently, the market expects almost no possibility of a rate cut at this meeting. According to the CME Group's model, the next rate cut may not come until September. Elyse Ausenbaugh, a senior executive at JPMorgan Chase, believes that the inflation figures suggest that now may be the time to cut interest rates again, but "I expect the Fed to emphasize the current uncertainties and hope to avoid acting prematurely. It's a tough decision."