The average price of SMM 10-12% high-grade NPI fell WoW by 13.3 yuan/nickel unit to 1,133.7 yuan/nickel unit (ex-factory, tax included), and the average price of the Indonesian NPI FOB index fell WoW by $0.31/nickel unit to $146.69/nickel unit. This week, the high-grade NPI market remained in the doldrums under a supply-demand tug-of-war and persistently sluggish trading, with prices under pressure overall.

South32 Ltd. (S32.AU) will sell aluminum assets to Alcoa, in a deal valued at up to $5.6 billion.

On June 26, the Corps Capital Investment Promotion and Trade Exchange Roadshow Matchmaking Session of the China-Eurasia Expo was held. A signing ceremony for key projects took place at the event, where Boda Equipment Chairman Zhou Shaowei formally signed a contract with the 13th Division of the Corps on behalf of the enterprise. The signed project will construct a specialized melting and casting production line and supporting facilities, with an annual output of 100,000 mt and an output value exceeding 2 billion yuan, focusing on the R&D and production of special-purpose aluminum billets for military and high-end equipment applications, as well as a series of national standard aluminum-based materials.

On July 1, Alcoa agreed to acquire South32’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets in a deal valued at up to $5.6 billion, solidifying its position as a top producer. Alcoa’s CEO said the transaction expands the scale of the company’s smelting operations and is expected to immediately increase cash flow. The deal is expected to be completed in H1 2027, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.

On July 3, JL MAG Rare-Earth's share price rose, closing 3.79% higher at 34.25 yuan per share. On the news front, JL MAG's H1 performance forecast released on July 1 showed: net profit attributable to parent for H1 2026 is expected to be 400 million to 460 million yuan, up 31.17% to 50.84% YoY. Regarding the reasons for performance changes, JL MAG stated in an announcement: 1. In H1 2026, the management adhered to the annual operating policy of "adhering to compliance and regulations, being customer-oriented, focusing on the magnetic materials main business, constructing 20,000 mt of new capacity on schedule, actively deploying embodied robot motor rotors, and reaching new heights." Through measures including technological innovation, organizational optimization, digitalization, and lean management, the company ensured full contract fulfillment and delivery to customers while achieving steady business growth. The company continued to strengthen its leading position in new energy and environmental protection sectors and actively explored emerging markets, with revenue expected to increase by about 30% YoY. Specifically, revenue from the NEV and auto parts sector rose about 30% YoY; in the robot and industrial servo motor sector, revenue rose about 90% YoY, with small-batch deliveries of embodied robot motor rotors already underway. 2. During the reporting period, non-recurring gains and losses are expected to impact net profit by approximately 32.00 million yuan, compared to 70.9405 million yuan (after tax) in the same period last year. 3. In this reporting period, due to A-share and H-share equity incentives as well as H-share convertible bond issuance, total related share-based payment expenses and financial expenses amounted to about 121 million yuan. There were no such expenses in the same period last year. A recent JL MAG announcement shows: to implement the company's development strategy and strengthen comprehensive competitiveness, it plans to acquire a 9.24% equity stake in Baotou Rare Earth Products Exchange Co., Ltd. held by China Northern Rare Earth, through public listing and transfer on the Inner Mongolia Property Rights Exchange Center . According to the valuation report issued by Northern Yashi Asset Evaluation Co., Ltd., as of the valuation date December 31, 2025, the total equity value of the exchange under the market approach was 239.00 million yuan, representing an appreciation of 27.8551 million yuan, or 13.19%, over the net asset book value of 211.1449 million yuan. The expected transaction price for the subject equity is 22.0836 million yuan. Under the Shenzhen Stock Exchange ChiNext Listing Rules and the company's articles of association, this external investment falls within the CEO's approval authority. This investment does not constitute a related party transaction, nor does it constitute a material asset restructuring as defined in the *Administrative Measures for the Material Asset Restructuring of Publicly Listed Firms*. Regarding the company's main business and product applications, JL MAG Rare-Earth introduced in its 2025 annual report: The company is a high-tech enterprise integrating R&D, production, and sales of high-performance NdFeB permanent magnet materials, magnetic assemblies, embodied robot motor rotors, and comprehensive utilization of rare earth recycling. It is a leading supplier of rare earth permanent magnet materials in the new energy and environmental protection sectors. The company’s products are widely used in NEVs and auto parts, energy-saving variable-frequency air conditioners, wind power generation, robotics and industrial servo motors, 3C, low-altitude aircraft, energy-saving elevators, rail transit, and other fields, and it has established long-term and stable cooperative relationships with industry leaders both in and outside China in these sectors. The company actively positions itself in the robotics field. On one hand, it collaborates with internationally renowned technology companies to conduct R&D and capacity building for embodied robot motor rotors, with small-batch product deliveries already made. On the other hand, through direct investment or participation in industry funds, it strategically lays out key links in the relevant industry chain to accelerate industrial synergy and commercialization. Regarding the operating plan for 2026, JL MAG Rare-Earth introduced in its 2025 annual report: The company's operating policy for 2026: "Adhere to legal compliance, adhere to client orientation, focus on the magnetic material main business, build 20,000 mt of new capacity on schedule, actively position embodied robot motor rotors, and scale new peaks." Based on this operating policy and under the premise of legal compliance, the company will focus on advancing the following tasks: 1. Orderly release of capacity under construction. In 2026, some of the company's projects under construction will gradually release capacity. The specific release progress will consider factors such as equipment commissioning and market demand, advancing the commissioning and ramp-up of new capacity in an orderly manner. 2. Continuous improvement of R&D capabilities. 3. Continuous optimization of the product mix. The company will continue to enrich its product matrix for different application scenarios based on client needs, enhancing product structure resilience and client stickiness. Meanwhile, it will steadily advance the layout of projects such as magnetic assemblies and embodied robot motor rotors, equip dedicated production lines and professional teams, and drive the upgrade of small-batch pilot lines to large-scale, standardized manufacturing and quality systems. 4. Continuous improvement of operational capabilities. 5. Strengthening capital expenditure efficiency. 6. Improving incentive mechanisms and shareholder returns. 7. Advancing the construction of the ESG system. Regarding potential risks the company may face, when introducing the risk of rare earth raw material price fluctuations, JL MAG Rare-Earth stated: Rare earth metals are the main raw materials for producing NdFeB magnets. China is an important global supply base for rare earth raw materials, and wild swings in rare earth raw material prices will adversely affect the company's production and sales in the short term. Mitigation measures: The company has built production plants in Ganzhou, Jiangxi, the main production area for heavy rare earth, and in Baotou, Inner Mongolia, the main production area for light rare earth. The company has established long-term cooperative relationships with major rare earth raw material suppliers, including China Northern Rare Earth Group and China Rare Earth Group. Meanwhile, through measures such as procuring rare earth raw material in advance based on orders on hand, establishing price adjustment mechanisms with key clients, optimizing formulations, and improving processes, the company strives to reduce the adverse impact of rare earth raw material price fluctuations on its operating performance. A review of Pr-Nd alloy’s price performance in H1 this year shows : The average price of Pr-Nd alloy on June 30 was 905,000 yuan/mt. Compared with its average price of 735,000 yuan/mt on December 31, 2025, the increase in H1 this year was 23.13%. The annual daily average price of Pr-Nd alloy in H1 this year was 904,650.86 yuan/mt. Compared with its annual daily average price of 529,559.83 yuan/mt in H1 2025, the semiannual daily average price rose by 375,091.03 yuan/mt, up 70.83% YoY. According to SMM quotations: On July 3, the Pr-Nd alloy price was 920,000-930,000 yuan/mt, with an average of 925,000 yuan/mt, up 1.09% from the previous trading day. Currently, rare earth market prices overall are showing a broad upward trend. Driven by a marked increase in market trading activity on July 2, low-priced supply of Pr-Nd oxide tightened, and suppliers of oxides raised their quotations one after another. However, overall inquiry activity in the market declined somewhat compared with yesterday, and actual transactions were not ideal. In the metal market, supported by oxide costs, prices also rose. However, downstream magnetic material enterprises made fewer inquiries, and metal enterprises were not very proactive in offering quotations, resulting in a generally sluggish trading atmosphere and relatively strong wait-and-see sentiment. In the short term, affected by the tightening of low-priced supply in the market, Pr-Nd product prices are expected to drift higher amid consolidation. Recommended reading:

SMM, July 3: At the start of this week, the long-quiet cobalt market saw fresh news again—the DRC announced that unused quotas for H1 2026 will be automatically voided and transferred in a unified manner to the ARECOMS strategic quota pool. Boosted by this news, market pessimism was eased, and refined cobalt prices stopped falling and rebounded, but weak downstream demand remained an inescapable topic in the cobalt market… SMM has compiled this week’s price changes for cobalt products as follows: : According to SMM spot quotes, refined cobalt spot prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. As of July 3, refined cobalt spot quotes stood at 378,000-385,000 yuan/mt, averaging 381,500 yuan/mt, up 2,000 yuan/mt from 379,500 yuan/mt on June 26, an increase of 0.53%. » View SMM cobalt-lithium spot quotes From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, mainstream smelters’ EXW prices first fell then rose during the week, and currently, EXW prices are stable at 385,000 yuan/mt. After market stabilization, traders resumed offering, with the spot-futures price spread remaining in a range of parity to a premium of 10,000 yuan/mt. On the demand side, boosted by DRC-related news, downstream end-user inquiries warmed slightly, and weekly transactions improved slightly WoW, but most deals were for essential early stockpiling, and a substantive recovery in end-user demand has yet to materialize. In the near term, insufficient downstream demand support, combined with high industry inventories, may keep futures consolidating. A recovery in refined cobalt prices still requires an uptrend in upstream categories such as cobalt intermediate products and cobalt sulphate to drive it. Cobalt salts ( and ): : According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt sulphate spot prices edged down slightly on the first day and then remained stable this week. As of July 3, spot cobalt sulphate quotes were temporarily steady at 85,000-87,000 yuan/mt, averaging 86,000 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt from June 26, a decline of 0.17%. » View SMM cobalt-lithium spot quotes According to SMM, the cobalt sulphate market remained sluggish this week. On the supply side, primary smelters’ quotes remained firm overall, with mainstream enterprises holding their minimum shipment target price at 85,000 yuan/mt. Boosted by the mid-week DRC policy news, market pessimism was repaired, and some recycling smelters and traders’ willingness to sell at lower prices weakened. Low-priced cargo offers were raised from 80,000-81,000 yuan/mt last week to 82,000-83,000 yuan/mt. Demand side showed no significant recovery yet. Downstream enterprises generally adopted a produce-based-on-sales model, and product settlements mostly used a monthly average price mechanism. To avoid the risk of price spread between purchase and sale at specific time points, most enterprises maintained a wait-and-see sentiment in early July, and substantial restocking activities were likely delayed to mid-to-late July. In the short term, cobalt sulphate prices mainly consolidated. The sustained recovery of the market still needs to wait for the concentrated restocking demand from downstream to be realized. : According to SMM spot quotes, the spot quote of cobalt chloride drifted lower this week. As of July 3, cobalt chloride spot quotes fell to 102,500-104,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 103,250 yuan/mt, down 2,000 yuan/mt from 105,250 yuan/mt on June 26, a decline of 1.9%. According to SMM, the cobalt chloride market remained sluggish this week. Inquiries increased somewhat, but actual transactions were still scarce. On Tuesday, the DRC announced the cancellation of unused quotas for Q2 2026, which only caused a slight fluctuation in the market in the morning and calmed down in the afternoon, indicating that the market's focus had shifted from supply-side disruptions to fundamentals, own demand, and inventory conditions. However, from a fundamental perspective, price rebound faced significant resistance, and the market remained pessimistic in the short term. Supply side, smelter quotes began to stabilize, with some enterprises even slightly raising quotes to test the market; but although downstream inquiries increased, actual implementation was limited. July prices will still need to wait for representative transactions to emerge before having reference significance. Demand side, the "rush to buy amid continuous price rise and hold back amid price downturn" sentiment dominated purchasing decisions. Downstream enterprises were still observing whether the current stabilization was a mid-drop pause or a true bottom, and the wait-and-see atmosphere was strong. Overall assessment, short-term cobalt chloride prices are expected to be largely stable, with limited further downside room. : According to SMM spot quotes, Co3O4 spot quotes continued to decline this week. As of July 3, Co3O4 spot quotes fell to 315,000-330,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 322,500 yuan/mt, down 12,500 yuan/mt from 335,000 yuan/mt on June 26, a decline of 3.73%. According to SMM, the Co3O4 market remained extremely sluggish this week, with actual transactions being scarce. Supply side, the mid-year report window had passed, enterprises that were bearish earlier had largely completed their shipments, and after the phased selling pressure was released, quotes stabilized this week. Demand side, although the traditional purchasing window had opened, amidst sustained price pressure, downstream cathode material plants still mainly adopted a wait-and-see stance and continued to push for lower prices in purchasing. The persistently depressed prices further dampened upstream willingness to sell. Overall, the subsequent trajectory of Co3O4 will depend on the price direction of cobalt salts, with near-term movement likely to track sideways in tandem with cobalt chloride. On the raw material front for cobalt intermediate products, SMM spot price data showed that spot prices for cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) edged down this week, with overall fluctuations remaining relatively small. As of July 3, spot prices for cobalt intermediate products (CIF China) stood at $24.25–25.5/lb, with an average of $24.875/lb, down $0.25/lb from the $25.125/lb recorded on June 26, a decline of 0.1%. SMM learned that trading in the spot cobalt intermediate product market was sluggish this week. Mid-week, the DRC government announced the revocation of miners' unused export quotas for H1 2026, significantly boosting long-term bullish sentiment in the market. Supported by this, mainstream miners kept their offers firm around the $25.5/lb level, while some traders' lowest shipment prices for small-lot cargoes stabilized near $24/lb. With cobalt salt market valuations currently running at low levels, a back-calculation based on spot cobalt salt prices suggests that downstream smelters would only accept raw material procurement prices around $23/lb. This creates a notable price spread between buyers and sellers, resulting in a stalemate with few actual transactions being concluded. In the short term, downstream smelting demand offers weak support, and intermediate product prices are likely to continue moving sideways. A breakout to the upside would depend on a demand recovery driven by improved cobalt salt valuations. On the news front, at the start of this week, DRC policy once again roiled the market with the announcement, based on the Autorité de Régulation et de Contrôle des Marchés des Substances Minérales Stratégiques (ARECOMS) press release No. 2026/003, that unused quotas from H1 2026 would be revoked and reallocated into a strategic quota pool. Following the policy release, SMM quickly assessed its potential impact, measuring the supply of cobalt intermediate products (including some high-grade recycled cobalt as supplementary material) into China for June-December 2026 and for 2027 based on two scenarios: 1. Based on market statistics, as of May 2026, miners in the DRC had only made prepayments for approximately 32,000 mt in metal content of cobalt intermediate products. Considering a shipping period of over three months from the DRC to China and the need to supply some cobalt resources to regions outside China, SMM assumes China's imports of cobalt intermediate products from June 2026 to December 2026 will be 46,000 mt in cobalt metal content, with domestic self-production of around 500 mt. For 2027, assuming miners allocate 80% of the 87,000 mt in metal content quota for cobalt intermediate products to China, imports would be around 70,000 mt in cobalt metal content, with domestic self-production of around 1,000 mt. 2. With the strong growth in China's recycled cobalt output this year driven by high economic viability, high-quality recycled cobalt that can partially substitute intermediate products is factored in as supplementary material. This would contribute approximately 18,000 mt in cobalt metal content of raw material from June to December 2026, and about 36,000 mt in cobalt metal content in 2027. From June to December 2026, demand for cobalt intermediate products (including some high-grade recycled cobalt as supplementary material) in China is expected to be around 58,000 mt in cobalt metal content, resulting in a slight surplus of 6,000 mt in cobalt metal content. This surplus is primarily attributed to the arrival of large volumes of intermediate products into ports from August 2026 onward. In 2027, China's demand for cobalt intermediate products (including some high-cobalt recycled supplementary materials) is approximately 105,000 mt Co, with a slight surplus of 3,000 mt Co. However, this surplus remains subject to the following uncertainties. First, if miners, after completing approvals, reduce circulation to control intermediate product prices, the market will still face relatively tight conditions. Second, the approval progress in the DRC remains relatively slow, and the future basic export quotas may not be fully shipped out. If imports fall short of expectations, the market will still face a relatively tight supply.

In June, global scrap tungsten markets diverged. India followed China's tungsten price rally, with active trading and higher prices in mid-June before cooling as China softened. Europe saw low-level consolidation due to high speculative inventories, but prices began to edge up in late June as stocks cleared. China's tungsten market experienced a sharp rebound followed by a pullback, and is expected to consolidate in the near term, while medium-to-long-term fundamentals remain solid.

[Flat products (HRC)]HRC prices steady, trading muted as EU quota cuts hit exports No dedicated slab/HRC export daily was published on 3 July; latest figures are from 2 July. HRC and other flat prices held steady, with HRC deals at 488-497 USD/tonne alongside some lower RMB offers, and overall trading was muted. With EU quotas tightening, traders reportedly have shipped little to the EU since April, hitting hardest those with large prior EU export shares. [Billet]Export billet FOB steady at 458-461 USD, weak overseas order appetite On 3 July export billet was quoted at 458-461 USD/tonne FOB, holding steady. Southeast Asian enquiries picked up slightly, but domestic offers remained relatively high and overseas buyers were reluctant to place orders, mostly staying on the sidelines. [Rebar]Rebar export offers steady, enquiry muted with small Hong Kong deals On 3 July rebar export offers were steady, with sentiment staying wait-and-see and enquiry generally muted. Traders reported small deals in Hong Kong recently, mostly need-based purchases, with overall trading lackluster

July 3 Brief: Northern ports: South African high-iron ore 30.5-31.4 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore 37.2-37.7 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabonese ore 40.6-41 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; 46% Australian lumps 43.3-43.8 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; South African medium-iron ore 37-37.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW. Southern ports: South African high-iron ore 33.5-34 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African semi-carbonate ore 36.5-37 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; Gabonese ore 41-41.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW; 46% Australian lumps 43.2-43.7 yuan/mtu, down WoW; South African medium-iron ore 37-37.5 yuan/mtu, flat WoW. The manganese ore market is stable but stagnant, end-use demand is weak, and buying and selling are dominated by wait-and-see sentiment.

SMM, Jul 3 – This week, secondary refined lead fell by 200 yuan/mt alongside the SMM #1 lead ingot price. EXW prices for secondary refined lead ranged from parity to a premium of 25 yuan/mt, with delivered cargoes at a highest premium of 100 yuan/mt. Smelters, facing losses, held prices firm and held back from selling, while downstream battery plants made just-in-time procurement during the off-season. The market saw prices but few deals, with sluggish transactions, and significant improvement in trading activity is unlikely in the short term. As of Jul 3, large-scale secondary lead enterprises in China incurred a loss of 548 yuan/mt, while losses at small and medium-sized secondary smelters widened to 742 yuan/mt. Finished secondary lead prices continued to trend downwards, and scrap battery raw material costs fluctuated at highs. This week, smelters’ losses widened further WoW. Currently, secondary lead smelters’ overall operating rate remains at a low level, and enterprises are awaiting a recovery signal in end-use consumption in July. It is expected that overall secondary lead supply volume next month will be basically flat with this month, and the premium range for secondary refined lead will remain stable in the short term.