SMM News Flash: [Rebar] Today, export FOB prices for rebar rose slightly by about USD 2/tonne. According to market traders, inquiry activity was relatively decent, but actual transactions remained average. Some participants also noted that long steel demand in South America has been relatively stable recently, while demand in the Middle East remains weak. Regarding the US–Iran peace agreement, there has been no significant change in order flow so far, and overall market sentiment remains cautious and wait-and-see. [Billet] Today, export billet offers increased slightly by around USD 2/tonne, with prices at approximately USD 473–476/tonne FOB. Market feedback indicates that countries such as Indonesia and India are actively exporting billets, leading to intensified competition. However, domestic export price advantages are not obvious, as rising production costs are limiting steel mills’ willingness to discount, while traders are also more cautious in taking short positions. As a result, overall transaction activity remained moderate. [HRC] Today, export prices for flat steel products rose by USD 2/tonne day-on-day. Hot-rolled coil transaction prices were in the range of USD 497–506/tonne. Market inquiry activity was moderate, with no significant release of concluded deals. Recently, there have been some new inquiries for medium and heavy plate in the Middle East, with a portion of them resulting in transactions. [India] Ship-breaking scrap prices in the Alang (Gujarat) market increased by around 3 USD/tonne, with HMS (80:20) assessed at approximately 373 USD/tonne EXW. Semi-finished steel prices remained broadly stable, while finished steel saw a mild correction in the previous trading session. Market sentiment in Alang stayed subdued, as vessel arrivals remained at historically low levels. Strong freight economics continued to incentivize shipowners to extend the operating life of older vessels, limiting scrap inflows. In the near term, Alang scrap prices are expected to remain supported but constrained by tight supply conditions, with further movement largely dependent on vessel arrivals and downstream steel demand. [Thailand] Galvanizing quotes in the Thai market remained stable in the short term, with import offers still around 710 USD/tonne; however, for large-volume firm orders, the market could consider offering a discount of 5-10 USD/tonne. Wire rod quotes were also relatively stable, but some traders had to push up prices by 20 USD/tonne to 570 USD/tonne due to rising costs. In terms of local market transactions, downstream end-use demand was weak, and actual deals mostly shifted to a "negotiate deal by deal" model. It is expected that in the short term, Thai wire rod and galvanizing prices will hover at highs. Whether prices can subsequently stabilize on a solid footing will mainly depend on the release of downstream firm orders and the final bargaining and concession room offered by sellers under shipment pressure. [South Korea] Facing the approaching rainy season, South Korean builders are racing against time to push forward the final “intensive rush to meet deadlines” for foundation and main structure works, and the upward momentum of finished steel prices has slowed significantly. Today, POSCO’s two core steelworks (Pohang and Gwangyang) simultaneously raised the purchase price of high-quality pig iron scraps/premium steel scrap by 15,000 won/tonne (approximately 9.93 USD/tonne), and medium and light scrap by 10,000 won/tonne (approximately 6.62 USD/tonne), mainly to prevent domestic supply from being snapped up by other EAF steel mills before the off-season arrives. POSCO had no choice but to raise buying prices against the trend to “lock in” domestic spot cargo flows.

[Iran] Iranian steel billet export offers remain stable at 410-420 USD/tonne FOB or FCA border, primarily shipped from Bandar Abbas to Oman (with freight rates around 40-45 USD/tonne). However, impacted by surging sea freight costs and heightened security risks in the Middle East Gulf region, buyers have lowered their counterbids to 400-405 USD/tonne FOB. Market participants report that at least three vessels are currently waiting to berth, and overall port activity remains subdued. The hindered seaborne trade has prompted export activities to shift toward road transport; recently, approximately 20000 tonnes of billets were traded at 385 USD/tonne EXW for July delivery, with 130x130 mm billets seeing the strongest demand. SMM anticipates that as long as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, seaborne exports will remain constrained, and short-term regional trade flows will continue to lean heavily on land transport to neighboring countries.

China Export Market : [Steel Billet] Today, export offers for square billet edged down by 1 USD/tonne to 470-473 USD/tonne. According to market feedback, port departure inspections for steel products involved relatively little steel billet, so the impact on its exports was relatively small. However, the current economic conditions in markets outside China were not very favorable, the international situation was unstable, demand was relatively average, and steel billet export deals showed mediocre performance. [Rebar] Today, rebar export FOB prices edged down by 1 USD/tonne. Market inquiries showed mediocre performance, and no actual deals were concluded yet. According to feedback from some traders, inspections at northern ports have tightened recently, but the impact on rebar exports appeared relatively small at present. In addition, some market participants said that China’s export prices currently had no obvious advantage, and wait-and-see sentiment was strong.

[HRC] Today, the export price of hot-rolled coil rose $1-2/mt day on day, with transaction prices at $495-504/mt. Although the Eid al-Adha holiday in the Middle East ended long ago, traders reported no significant improvement in local market transactions. Recently, it has been heard that inspections of irregular offers at some ports in North China have been tightened.

[Turkey] Dragged down by market weakness, Turkish domestic rebar prices edged down by 1 USD/tonne to 591.5 USD/tonne EXW. As the depreciation of the lira continues to push up local currency costs, domestic traders have largely adopted promotional pricing strategies, offloading inventories at levels below mill dollar offers. Although mills attempted to hold prices firm last week, they were forced to compromise amid sluggish demand: some mills in the Marmara region lowered their offers by 5 USD/tonne to 605-610 USD/tonne EXW, while offers from Izmir mills also dropped to 585-590 USD/tonne EXW. On the macroeconomic front, rising costs stemming from geopolitical conflicts and a high-interest-rate environment continue to suppress downstream demand, with the market generally expecting limited room for a summer construction rebound. Export activity remains equally subdued, with EU buyers showing insufficient interest in purchasing Turkish material.

SMM News Flash: [Steel Billet] Today, billet export offers weakened, with offers at USD 470–474/t. According to feedback from several traders, the North African market is facing pressure from rising port and freight costs, but the overall impact remains limited. Market inquiries were relatively active, mainly from customers in South Asia and the Middle East. Recently, low-priced export billet transactions were concluded. [Thailand] Currently, the DDP price for cold-rolled substrate galvanizing in Thailand is 28.75 THB/kg. According to SMM’s latest survey, affected by weak procurement demand during the off-season, orders at local processing centers have recently shown a weakening trend, with actual transaction performance remaining weak. It is expected that prices will remain under pressure in the near term, and significant improvement in short-term trading will be difficult to see, pending the release of updated price adjustments by steel mills.

[HRC] HRC export prices remained stable day on day today, with transaction prices at 496-504 USD/tonne. A major mill in north China reported that its transaction price fell by more than 5-10 USD/tonne WoW this week, and its prices remained higher than other resources, at around 515 USD/tonne. The presence of tax-exclusive prices in the market has made it more difficult for some regular traders to close deals. It is learned that tax-exclusive prices are even 10 USD/tonne lower than the market’s lowest tax-inclusive prices. [Rebar] Rebar export FOB quotations remained stable today, with transaction prices mostly concentrated at 492-495 USD/tonne. Shipments are mostly scheduled for August, and some steel mills have full order books, with deliveries already scheduled from September to October. According to feedback from some market traders, recent inquiries for wire rod have been moderate, overseas buyers remain cautious and on the sidelines, and their psychological price levels are generally lower than current offers. [Steel Billet] The export transaction price for steel billet was 473-475 USD/tonne today, holding steady day on day. Recently, offers from steel mills in north China were at around 478 USD/tonne, but it is reported that deals cannot be reached for high-priced resources. Currently, most shipments are scheduled for August, with a few in September. It is learned that a few mills in east China have maintenance plans in June and will continue to control their order intake in the short term. In addition, some mills in north China have recently taken new rebar orders, so they are temporarily reducing the volume of steel billet available for ordering.

China Steel Market Export : [Sheets & Plates] Today, HRC export prices continued to decline by 2 USD/tonne on a daily basis, with transaction prices at 496-504 USD/tonne. Domestic futures fell, and market inquiry activity weakened somewhat. Domestic traders reported that tax-exclusive offers appeared in multiple northern markets, and congestion at some ports persisted. [Steel Billet] Today, square billet export prices were at 473-475 USD/tonne, easing slightly by 1 USD/tonne DoD. Recently, northern market offers were on the high side, but high-priced resources failed to close deals. Additionally, inquiries from outside China weakened, with buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, and inquiry prices remained 3-5 USD/tonne below market prices. [Rebar] Today, rebar export offers eased slightly by 1 USD/tonne. According to some market participants, rebar inquiry activity was weak with lackluster transactions, and some steel mills plan to venture into markets outside China to seek new order-taking opportunities.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Futures Retreated After Rapid Rise to Close Bearish, Spot Cost Support Kept Prices Relatively Strong] The most-traded aluminum alloy 2608 futures contract closed overnight at 23,105 yuan/mt, down 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decline of 0.69%. It retreated after a rapid rise to close with a solid bearish candlestick, with the previous high of 23,550 clearly under pressure, ending the short-term rebound. Trading volume was 2,830 lots, down 4,073 lots from the previous session. Volume shrank during the decline, indicating that bears' selling pressure slowed down while bulls' buying support was also relatively weak. Open interest stood at 13,704 lots, up 28 lots with a slight increase in positions. The slight increase in open interest amid the decline suggested that funds marginally added short positions in line with the trend, with divergence between bulls and bears slightly widening.

SMM News Flash: [Billet] Today, export steel billet offers held steady. It was learned that regional offers showed slight divergence — northern offers were generally higher with steel mills showing weak willingness to sell, while east China offers were relatively lower but still above buyer expectations, resulting in mediocre transaction activity. [Indonesia] A steel mill in Indonesia offered HRC export prices at 515 USD/tonne FOB for July. Market rumors suggested that prices still faced further downward pressure, as most steel mills had not yet received sufficient orders for July.