SMM Cold Rolling Production Schedule: June Steel Mill CR Schedule Up 3%, Daily Average Schedule Up 7% According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned total volume of commercial CR products from 31 mainstream CR sheet mills this month stands at 4.2132 million mt, up 124,900 mt or 3.1% from last month's actual outpu On a daily basis, June has one fewer day than May, with the average daily CR commercial products schedule for June reaching 140,400 mt, up 6.5% MoM from last month's actual daily average output. SMM HRC Production Schedule: June HRC Production Schedule Down 0.5% MoM, Daily Average Up 3% According to the latest SMM tracking, the planned commercial HRC volume of 39 mainstream steel mills this month totals 13.2679 million mt, down 69,000 mt or 0.5% from the actual commercial HRC production last month. On a daily average basis, as June has one day less than May, the daily average commercial HRC production schedule stands at 442,300 mt, up 2.8% MoM from the actual daily average production of May. In June, as some steel mills that underwent earlier maintenance gradually resumed production, coupled with HRC profit margins being relatively better than those of rebar in most regions, the total HRC production schedule volume saw relatively small fluctuations MoM compared with the actual level in May. As June has fewer days than May, on a daily average basis, the HRC production schedule increased MoM. Summary: Total hot-rolled commercial material production schedules at steel mills in June were basically flat MoM. As June has fewer days than May, the daily average production schedule edged up MoM. Demand side, with the arrival of the off-season for steel consumption, end-use demand is expected to gradually weaken in June, and HRC inventory may see an inventory buildup inflection point in late June. Other aspects, short-term ferrous metals ore, coke, and steel price trends have diverged. As steel's own demand is under pressure, its price initiative is weak. Monitor whether there are new drivers from the raw material coal and coke side to cause finished steel prices to follow in fluctuating. HRC prices are expected to move sideways within a range in June, with limited upside and downside room.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: SHFE Aluminum Experiences Short-Term Unusual Strength, Beware of Sentiment Cooling and Correction Risks] Overall, the current SHFE aluminum price has achieved a short-term sharp rise driven by events and funds, with market trading sentiment in a phase of excitement. Subsequently, it is necessary to be cautious about the risks of sentiment cooling and market correction triggered by multiple factors.

SMM November 28 news: According to data from SMM, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output in November 2025 (30 days) decreased by 4.44% month-on-month but increased by 1.36% year-on-year. As of the end of November, China's total installed capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina stood at approximately 110.32 million tons, while the operating capacity fell by 1.26% month-on-month, with an operating rate of 82.04%. Daily average output experienced a slight decline during the month but remained at a relatively high level. This was mainly due to phased production cuts and equipment adjustments at some enterprises in northern regions, while operations in southern regions remained relatively stable, providing some support to overall output. In mid-November, several plants underwent concentrated production line maintenance. At the same time, with the start of the heating season and the ongoing annual carbon emission inspections, environmental compliance pressures intensified, leading some companies to reduce output to meet regulatory requirements. Additionally, some enterprises carried out production line upgrades, contributing to the slight dip in output this month. In contrast, alumina production in southern China remained largely unaffected, maintaining stable operations. By late November, the factors previously constraining production gradually eased. As maintenance activities were completed and upgrade projects concluded, alumina producers gradually resumed capacity, leading to a modest recovery in output by the end of the month. Outlook for December The alumina market is expected to remain in a supply surplus in December. With average monthly prices continuing to trend downward, some high-cost producers in Shanxi and Henan provinces have fallen into losses, facing mounting operational pressure. On the supply side, overseas alumina showed a net import trend in November, continuing to impact the domestic market. Imports in December are expected to remain at November's level, further pressuring the domestic alumina market. Against this backdrop, some domestic producers may initiate voluntary output cuts or schedule maintenance to alleviate the pressure. Overall, industry operating capacity in December is projected to remain around 88.69 million tons.

In October 2025, China produced 72 million mt of crude steel, down 12.1% YoY, with a daily average output of 2.3226 million mt, down 5.2% MoM; pig iron production was 65.55 million mt, down 7.9% YoY, with a daily average output of 2.1145 million mt, down 4% MoM; steel product output was 118.64 million mt, down 0.9% YoY, with a daily average output of 3.8271 million mt, down 7.6% MoM. From January to October, the country's cumulative crude steel production reached 818 million mt, down 3.9% YoY, with an average daily output of 2.6904 million mt; cumulative pig iron production was 711 million mt, down 1.8% YoY, with an average daily output of 2.34 million mt; cumulative steel product output was 1.218 billion mt, up 4.7% YoY, with an average daily output of 4.0052 million mt.

SMM October 31 News : According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina output in October 2025 (31 days) increased by 2.39% month-on-month and 6.79% year-on-year. As of the end of October, China's built capacity for metallurgical-grade alumina was approximately 110.32 million tons, while the actual operating capacity fell by 0.92% month-on-month, with an operating rate of 83.09%. The daily average output of alumina saw a slight decline this month, mainly due to the following factors: in late October, some alumina plants in the north were constrained by routine calciner maintenance and tight supply of domestic bauxite due to the rainy season, which affected production at some enterprises. At the same time, smelting loads in southern regions also decreased, leading to a decline in output. The average monthly price of alumina in October approached the industry's average cost line, with some high-cost enterprises already falling into a loss-making state. However, due to long-term delivery obligations, operational pressures continued to mount, forcing sporadic northern enterprises to adopt production reduction measures. Overall, due to maintenance and production cuts at some alumina enterprises in October, the industry's overall operating rate slightly decreased compared to the previous month but remained at a relatively high level. Forecast for the next month: The alumina market in November is expected to continue in a surplus pattern. After entering November, the average monthly price is projected to face downward pressure and gradually approach the cost line, further narrowing profit margins compared to the previous month. It is anticipated that more enterprises will adopt production reduction and maintenance measures. As the supply side contracts, the current surplus situation is expected to ease to some extent. However, as supply and demand rebalancing will take time, prices are likely to remain under pressure. Additionally, northern enterprises need to be cautious of further production restrictions due to environmental requirements, such as the start of the heating season on November 15 and the annual carbon emission verification. The industry's operating capacity in November is forecasted to be around 88.98 million tons.