[SMM Copper Cathode Rod Flash] The operating rate of copper cathode rod producers increased by 2.46 percentage points WoW to 68.06% this week. The rebound was mainly due to enterprises that had previously cut production resuming normal operations. However, copper cathode rod enterprises reported that new orders were stable, with no significant improvement, and market demand was basically flat compared to last week. Due to end-users' weak acceptance of current copper prices, operating rates in the downstream wire and cable and enamelled wire industries remained stable.

The operating rate of major copper cathode rod enterprises in China this week (July 3 - July 9) was 68.06%, up 2.46 ppts WoW, up 0.06 ppts from expectations, and up 1.06 ppts YoY. This week, copper prices moved sideways, and enterprise new orders were stable overall, basically flat from the previous week. Production was mainly supported by prior orders on hand, and copper cathode rod enterprises flexibly adjusted production schedules along with new order connections. However, resumption of production by enterprises that had previously cut output this week drove the overall operating rate higher. Downstream end-user wire and cable, and enamelled wire industries moved in sync. At current copper price levels, downstream acceptance was low, and industry operations remained stable, with limited fluctuations. Inventory side, affected by Typhoon No. 9 "Bavi" (super typhoon) and the approach of Friday, copper cathode rod enterprises concentrated cargo pick-up on Thursday to stockpile in advance as a precaution, leading raw material inventory to rise 3.14 ppts WoW. Meanwhile, downstream demand was weak and cargo pick-up pace slowed down, causing finished product inventory to rise 1.46 ppts WoW. Looking ahead to next week (July 10 - July 16), new order follow-through is expected to be weak, and enterprises will proactively lower production schedules. SMM expects the operating rate of copper cathode rod enterprises to decrease 2.9 ppts WoW to 65.16% next week.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Friday night, LME copper opened at $13,625.5/mt, dipped to $13,584.6/mt early in the session, then fluctuated upward to a high of $13,675.7/mt, and finally closed at $13,587/mt, down 0.50%. Trading volume reached 10,500 lots, and open interest reached 253,000 lots, an increase of 2,615 lots from the previous trading day, reflecting bearish position building. Meanwhile, SHFE copper was closed last Friday night due to a holiday.

Looking ahead to next week, intraday copper prices edged down slightly, and alongside pre-stocking for the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream dip-buying sentiment recovered somewhat, with purchase and sales sentiment each up 0.04 WoW, while transactions for low-priced sources were moderate. However, suppliers’ morning quotes were firm, with standard-quality copper at parity to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, then continuously lowered to near parity. In the second session, some brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, reflecting that amid the current copper price decline, suppliers' willingness to sell increased, while downstream willingness to chase higher prices was insufficient, leaving overall transactions muted. Overall, constrained by high copper prices, Shanghai spot copper premiums against the 2607 contract are expected to hold at current levels next week, or edge up slightly.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Next week, with intraday copper prices edging down and combined with pre-holiday restocking ahead of the Dragon Boat Festival, downstream dip-buying sentiment recovered somewhat. Purchase and sales sentiment rose 0.04 WoW respectively, with moderate transactions for low-priced cargoes. However, suppliers' early-session offers were firm, with standard-quality copper quoted from parity to a premium of 30 yuan/mt, subsequently adjusted down to near parity. In the second session, some brands were already quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/mt, reflecting that amid the current copper price decline, suppliers' willingness to sell increased, while downstream buyers' willingness to chase higher prices was insufficient. Overall trading was thin. On balance, pressured by high copper prices, Shanghai spot copper premiums against the SHFE 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels next week or edge up slightly.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight LME copper opened at $13,813/mt. At the open, copper prices showed wild swings, dipping to $13,776.5/mt during the session. Then the price center fluctuated upward, touching a high of $13,835.5/mt near the close, and finally closed at $13,835/mt, up 0.13%. Trading volume reached 11,500 lots, and open interest stood at 251,000 lots, down 7,579 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,280 yuan/mt. In early trading, it hit a high of 105,580 yuan/mt, then the price center dipped to 105,210 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center fluctuated upward, and finally closed at 105,510 yuan/mt, up 0.1%. Trading volume reached 18,000 lots, and open interest reached 122,000 lots, down 2,119 lots from the previous trading day, indicating a reduction in bearish positions.

Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices edged up slightly today. Although buying and selling sentiment rebounded, it remained weak overall. In the morning session, suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt, but actual transactions were sluggish. In the second session, prices were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting downstream users' limited acceptance of current copper prices and reluctance to chase higher prices. The inter-month Contango spread widened slightly but stayed in the range of around 100 yuan/mt, with suppliers showing relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to warrant outflows tomorrow. If there is a concentrated release, it will put pressure on spot premiums; if outflows are limited, then, supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for the discount to widen further. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertainty over warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

[SMM Shanghai spot copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, today copper prices edged up. Buying and selling sentiment rebounded but remained relatively weak overall. Suppliers quoted from parity to a premium of 10 yuan/mt in early trading, but actual trading was sluggish. In the second session, quotes were continuously lowered to around a discount of 20 yuan/mt before deals could be concluded, reflecting limited acceptance of current copper prices by downstream buyers and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. The Contango spread between monthly contracts widened slightly but remained around 100 yuan/mt, and suppliers showed relatively strong willingness to hold prices firm. Close attention should be paid to the outflow of warrants tomorrow. If released in concentration, it will weigh on spot premiums; if the outflow is limited, then supported by the spread structure, there is limited room for further decline in the discount. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between weak demand and uncertain warrant outflows, Shanghai spot copper prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract are expected to remain at current levels tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,744/mt, dipped to $13,725/mt shortly after the opening, then its price center fluctuated upward to touch $13,822.5/mt, followed by wild swings and finally closed at $13,796.5/mt, up 0.61%. Trading volume reached 16,600 lots, open interest stood at 263,000 lots, a decrease of 3,509 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bearish position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 105,490 yuan/mt, hitting a high of 105,700 yuan/mt right after the opening, then its price center fluctuated downward all the way, touching a low of 105,060 yuan/mt near the end of trading, and finally closed at 105,210 yuan/mt, down 0.14%. Trading volume reached 25,000 lots, open interest stood at 147,000 lots, a decrease of 1,715 lots from the previous trading day, manifested as bullish position reduction.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, SHFE copper prices are expected to rise intraday and remain at a relatively high level. Coupled with the futures contract rollover, trading activity is likely to be muted, reflecting that the current price level is significantly suppressing real demand. After the rollover, the market will officially price around the 2607 contract, and close attention should be paid to the outflow of unmatched warrants. However, open interest for the SHFE copper 2606 contract currently stands at approximately 5,500 lots, indicating limited delivery participation. The concentrated release of warrants is therefore expected to exert relatively limited additional pressure on spot discounts. Supported by delivery-related dynamics, Shanghai spot copper discounts did not see a sharp decline. But if copper prices remain at current highs and demand fails to improve effectively, spot premiums may come under downward pressure.