SMM July 28 News: Metal Markets: As of midday close, base metals in the domestic market mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.12%, while SHFE aluminum rose 0.26%. SHFE lead rose 0.38%. SHFE zinc fell 0.44%. SHFE tin fell 1.37%. SHFE nickel fell 0.76%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract rose 0.17%, the most-traded alumina contract fell 1%, the most-traded lithium carbonate contract fell 2.11%, the most-traded silicon metal contract fell 0.66%, and the most-traded polysilicon futures contract fell 1.25%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 0.13%, rebar fell 0.62%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.46%, and stainless steel fell 1.26%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2.36%, and the most-traded coke contract fell 1.65%. As for base metals in overseas markets, as of 11:41, LME metals nearly all fell. LME copper fell 0.56%, LME aluminum fell 0.39%, LME zinc fell 0.36%, LME tin fell 1.57%, and LME nickel fell 0.26%. LME lead rose 0.16%. Precious metals: as of 11:41, COMEX gold fell 0.68% and COMEX silver fell 1.96%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.84%, and the most-traded SHFE silver contract fell 2.59%. Citi said its base case shows that India’s gold imports will remain sluggish in Q3 despite the fact that historically Q3 is a seasonal stockpiling peak. This is due to ample scrap supply, cautious consumer sentiment, and local price discounts, which curb fresh import demand. However, Citi maintains its 0-3 month short-term gold price target at $4,500. The bank said this target assumes an easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and a less hawkish turn by the Fed. Many risks remain in the short term that could cause gold prices to decline again, including major re-escalation, AI-driven de-risking, and a persistently hawkish Fed stance. (Jinshi Data APP) Also, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures contract fell 1.12%, while the most-traded palladium futures contract edged up 0.08%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures contract rose 0.35% to 2,760 points. As of 11:41 on July 28, some futures midday market quotes: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Expectations of a US-Iran ceasefire weighed on oil prices, while rate-hike concerns eased, but the market remained cautious ahead of the Fed decision, with silver prices retreating after rapid rise. Spot supply and demand were both weak, with transactions remaining at parity... Macro Front Domestic: [Hangzhou: Plan to moderately deploy new-type facilities such as computing power networks, new-type power grids, and next-generation communication networks ahead of demand] The “Hangzhou Artificial Intelligence Industry Development Promotion Regulation (Draft)” is open for public comment. It proposes that the municipal people’s government should make overall plans for the construction of an artificial intelligence infrastructure system, appropriately lay out new-type facilities such as computing power networks, new-type power grids, new-generation communication networks, and trusted data spaces in advance, establish and improve market-oriented operational mechanisms, and ensure efficient utilization, safety, and controllability of all types of facilities; the municipal people’s government should coordinate the layout of intelligent computing power facilities and energy resource allocation. Build a new-type energy system for a megacity, strengthen synergy among power supply, power grid, load, and energy storage, promote urban power supply reliability to meet the usage standards of intelligent computing power facilities, and ensure safe, stable, and sufficient electricity supply for computing power; support the construction and operation of a city computing power resource dispatch service platform through market-based mechanisms, providing the public with convenient services such as computing power resource information release, supply-demand matching, and transaction settlement. Encourage various computing power resources to access the platform to achieve efficient allocation of computing power resources. Support computing power operation enterprises in participating in the construction of the national integrated computing power network. The PBOC conducted 305.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations in the open market today at an interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from the previous operation. 253 billion yuan of reverse repos matured today. US dollar: As of 11:41, the US dollar index fell 0.07 to 101.46. US President Trump said on Monday, when discussing Fed issues, that Fed Chairman Warsh is excellent, but he must deal with committee issues. He believes Warsh will do the right thing and knows what Warsh wants. Regarding interest rates, Trump said rates should be lower and that the US should have the lowest rates in the world. He also mentioned that costs are falling rapidly. (Jin10 Data APP) “Fed whisperer” Nick Timiraos: Fed Chairman Warsh had to convince the most rate-cut-enthusiastic president in modern history to appoint him to the Fed chairmanship. Now he faces a new challenge: persuading his 18 colleagues to abandon the professional mindset that he believes led them astray. The first test will come on Wednesday. Citadel Securities expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this week—a surprise move that would strengthen Chairman Kevin Warsh’s credibility in the fight against inflation. Frank Fret, the firm’s head of macro strategy, wrote in a report that a 25-basis-point rate hike on Wednesday would cement Warsh’s repeated pledge to restore price stability and signal that policymakers no longer rely on telegraphing every policy move in advance. “The market may again have underestimated the extent of the Fed’s hawkish pivot.” A rate increase this week would “decisively end the era of forward guidance” while highlighting the Fed’s independence. ((Jin10 Data APP) HSBC economist Paul Mackel said in a report that unless the US Fed unexpectedly raises rates, its decision this week may not provide a new catalyst for the US dollar. Fed Chairman Warsh has acknowledged that inflation is above target and expressed a commitment to price stability. He said if the meeting this week merely aligns with these views, the dollar is unlikely to surge significantly because the market is already positioned for rate hikes later this year. “However, we also recognize some are entertaining the idea of a surprise Fed hike, akin to what it did suddenly in February 1994.” He said that if the market welcomes it as a prudential move, this would boost the dollar.(Jin10 Data APP) Citigroup traders are betting the US Fed will keep rates unchanged this week. According to Akshay Singal, the bank’s global head of short-term interest rate trading, the position they hold will profit if the Fed holds rates steady. Singal said, “We still stick to our expectation that rates will remain unchanged.” He added that Fed Chairman Warsh has made it clear that he wants the market to focus on the data, and the data indicate that the Fed does not need to raise rates at this time.(Jin10 Data APP) Lloyd Chan, a senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank, noted in a research report that the US dollar may be supported in the near term by elevated US Treasury yields and persistent tensions in the Middle East. He also said the Fed decision this week is likely to be a key catalyst for markets. Chan pointed out: “Though no policy change is expected, the market’s focus will be firmly locked on the Fed’s guidance – namely, whether policymakers still lean towards tightening.” The analyst added: “US tariff issues are returning to the spotlight as the Trump administration seeks to rebuild its tariff regime after the US Supreme Court overturned Donald Trump’s proposed global reciprocal tariff measures earlier this year.”(Jin10 Data APP) Regarding other currencies: RBA Governor Bullock: It is still uncertain whether the RBA’s rate hikes have been sufficient to bring CPI back to the target range. The RBA Board will raise the cash rate further if needed. The full effects of past rate hikes will take time to manifest. The RBA is committed to preventing cost pressures from becoming entrenched inflation. Core CPI is largely tracking in line with expectations but remains too high. Indicators suggest a mild pace of consumption growth in Q2. A further slowdown in demand growth may be necessary.(from Wall Street CN APP) On the data front: Today will see the release of the US ADP Employment Change for the week ended July 11, the US FHFA House Price Index MoM for May, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (not seasonally adjusted) YoY for May, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July, and the US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July, among others. Additionally, watch out for: RBA Governor Bullock will deliver a speech, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump. Crude Oil: As of 11:41, oil prices in both markets fell, with WTI down 1.46% and Brent down 1.37%. Geopolitically, the situation showed a phased easing. Trump stated on Monday that the US is in diplomatic negotiations with Iran to end the conflict, while warning that if talks fail, military engagement will resume. According to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter, Iran and Oman are attempting to reach an agreement to restart shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices extended their decline on this news. (From Wallstreetcn APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

SMM, July 28: In H1 2026, the global petroleum coke market had originally hoped for an easing of the previous year's tight supply and a gradual recovery in production from major producing regions. However, the early-year "signs of production increase" were successively interrupted by peak maintenance season, the escalation of Middle East tensions, and multiple refinery accidents. The global supply side displayed a typical pattern of "first increase then decline, overall tightness," while the structural divergence between high- and low-sulphur coke further intensified. I. Global Overview: From "Easing Expectations" to "Tightening Reality" In 2025, the global petroleum coke market tightened significantly due to concentrated refinery closures and a rising share of light crude processing — US coke production once fell to a 20-year low. Entering 2026, benefiting from improved economics for heavy sour crude, coke output in the US Gulf Coast surged to a 13-month high in January, and the market widely expected high-sulphur coke supply to exert downward pressure on prices in Q2. But this expectation was quickly overturned. The escalation of Middle East tensions in late February pushed up crude oil and shipping costs, and combined with successive accidents at key refineries in the US and Mexico from March to April, global supply tightened again, providing solid support to prices. The repeated cycle of "production increase — then production cuts" in global petroleum coke during H1 has become the dominant theme driving price fluctuations. II. US: Hit New High Early in the Year, Production Rebounded Despite March-April Disruptions The US is a major source of global high-sulphur coke. In January 2026, benefiting from favorable economics for processing heavy sour crude, US coke production rebounded to a 13-month high, momentarily making the market optimistic about supply easing in Q2. However, March-April saw a cluster of risk events: Valero's Port Arthur refinery (380,000 b/d) halted production due to a fire on March 23, with coking units partially restarting in early April but the large crude unit not back online until month-end, forcing April shipments to be delayed to May. Meanwhile, multiple refineries in Texas also experienced frequent malfunctions — ExxonMobil's Beaumont refinery (612,000 b/d) suffered a unit malfunction on April 22, and Marathon's Galveston Bay refinery (631,000 b/d) experienced a power outage on April 14. However, the disruption did not reverse the overall production increase. According to US EIA data, marketable petroleum coke production along the US Gulf Coast reached 2 million mt in April, up 14% YoY (up from 1.8 million mt a year earlier) and up 3% MoM, pushing nationwide production up 8% YoY. The growth was mainly driven by a surge in Venezuelan crude imports (more than doubled YoY and up 15% MoM in April), coupled with US Gulf Coast refining margins hitting a more than three-year high in late March and refinery operating rates averaging 95%; some refiners maximized operations to capture high product margins. Among them, Louisiana Gulf Coast production soared 29% YoY in April, hitting a more than six-year high. In other words, US supply in H1 was characterized by a "first-down-then-up" pattern—constrained by incidents in Q1, but clearly recovering by April. III. Mexico and Venezuela: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back on the Production Increase Path Venezuela: After the US eased sanctions restrictions, exports began to rebound from February but remained below year-earlier levels, contributing limited global growth. Mexico: Following the incident at the Pemex Dos Bocas / Olmeca refinery (340,000 b/d) on April 9, which involved a coke pit fire and damage to a tower at the coker unit, market participants expect it to resume operations at 50% load. This followed a separate fatal fire at the refinery in mid-March that resulted in five deaths. The successive incidents have cast a shadow over Mexico's full-year production increase plan. However, entering H2, coke output at Dos Bocas has continued to rebound, with daily production recovering to 4,000–5,000 mt. Stable shipments to India and Asia have started since July, slightly relieving pressure on US Gulf Coast cargoes, but the growth remains limited and insufficient to alter the tight balance landscape. Overall, the "recovery-driven production increases" in both countries were offset by incidents and infrastructure bottlenecks, resulting in H1 net global supply growth that was clearly below expectations. IV. Middle East: Core Refineries Hit, Saudi High- and Low-Sulphur Petroleum Coke Exports Hindered After the Middle East situation escalated on February 28, constrained regional crude exports pushed up oil prices and narrowed the heavy-light crude spread, directly weakening the economics of coker operations. The impact on petroleum coke supply has been particularly direct: Yasref refinery (Aramco/Sinopec, 400,000 b/d, Yanbu) has lowered coke production; Satorp refinery (Aramco/TotalEnergies, 460,000 b/d, Jubail) has faced shipment disruptions, with one processing unit damaged in a night attack on April 7–8, further tightening Saudi external supply. Saudi Arabia is the primary supplier of high-sulphur petroleum coke globally, especially to India and China. Disruptions to its production and shipments have directly intensified the tightness of spot high-sulphur petroleum coke in the Asian market. Notably, the supply disruption did not ease with the end of Q2—after the US-Iran temporary ceasefire agreement broke down on July 8, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz was again obstructed, and all cargoes from Saudi Arabia’s Jubail Satorp and Yanbu refineries were delayed, extending the supply interruption into early H2. 5. Russia: Exports to China Surge Against the Trend, Refinery Attacks Add Further Uncertainty Russia is one of the core sources of China’s petroleum coke imports. In H1, amid multiple disruptions, it exhibited a trajectory of “volume increase, attacks, and renewed tightening”: Import share rose against the trend: According to General Administration of Customs data, China’s total petroleum coke imports in H1 2026 reached 8.1103 million mt (YoY -2.24%), of which Russian petroleum coke imports amounted to 1.4361 million mt, a significant YoY increase of 221,000 mt, or 18.18%, lifting its import share to 18% and making it one of the few sources to grow against the trend in H1. Predominantly high-sulphur resources with diversified transport: Currently, Russian petroleum coke specifications remain largely high-sulphur resources. In addition to traditional sea transport, some traders choose to deliver via rail into China, mainly for use in prebaked anode and anode auxiliary material applications. Refinery attacks hit supply: Recently, the Russia-Ukraine situation has continued to deteriorate, damaging delayed coking units (CDU and secondary processing units) at core refineries such as Omsk. Russia’s overall refining capacity was paralyzed by over 40% at one point, with the affected products mainly being medium-sulphur petroleum coke with 1.8% sulphur and general-grade petroleum coke around 4% sulphur. According to market surveys, the Omsk refinery is expected to gradually resume production by end-July, while the Tatarstan refinery will resume in early September, leading to near-term supply tightening expectations. Overall, Russian petroleum coke supported China’s high-sulphur petroleum coke supply in H1 by “filling the gap with volume,” but the pace of refinery production resumptions and geopolitical risks in H2 will be key variables affecting the stability of exports to China. 6. China: Independent Refinery Output High Initially, Then Low; June Operating Rate Plummets to 42.69%As the world's largest petroleum coke consumer, China's domestic coke production also came under pressure in H1. According to SMM's monthly data on independent refineries: Total H1 volume: From January to June 2026, cumulative petroleum coke production at independent refineries was approximately 4.7831 million mt, down 148,100 mt from 4.9312 million mt in the same period of 2025, a 3.0% YoY decline. Monthly trend shaped higher at the start and lower later: January output of 867,300 mt (operating rate 66.24%) was the H1 high; it then declined month by month, with June output falling to 656,200 mt and the operating rate at only 42.69%. Compared to June 2025's 761,500 mt and 60.67%, the declines were 13.80% and 17.98 percentage points, respectively. Significant regional divergence: Shandong independent refineries produced about 3.5543 million mt in H1, up 8.2% YoY; non-Shandong independent refineries produced about 1.2291 million mt, a sharp 25.3% YoY decline. Shandong's share of total independent refinery production rose to around 74.3%. Structural highlights: Low-sulphur coke was relatively strong, supported by rigid demand from anode materials and prebaked anodes, while high-sulphur coke saw limited price gains due to downstream resistance to high prices but still moved its overall center higher. The structural tightness in high-quality low-sulphur resources during H1 is likely to remain the main theme throughout the whole year. 7. China Port Spot: Low-sulphur Coke Stays High and Firm, High-sulphur Coke Diverges Tightening supply has been reflected in domestic port spot prices. According to SMM's China port petroleum coke spot price monitoring, low-sulphur and high-sulphur coke prices showed clear divergence in H1: Low-sulphur coke stayed high with marginal supplement from imports: Represented by Brazilian and Argentine low-sulphur coke, imports of high-quality resources saw significant YoY growth in port arrivals during H1, and port spot prices long operated in the range of 4,100–4,500 yuan/mt. Indonesian low-sulphur coke port spot prices drifted higher from around 4,450 yuan/mt in January, touched a high of 4,900 yuan/mt at the end of April, and then pulled back to 4,600 yuan/mt by late July. Overall, low-sulphur coke demand is rigid (anode materials, high-end prebaked anodes) while incremental supply is insufficient, with imports providing only marginal supplementation, and the supply-demand mismatch supports the price center. Divergence within high-sulphur petroleum coke: US high-sulphur petcoke prices remain relatively firm, staying above 3,000 yuan/mt, while prices for high-sulphur petcoke from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other sources are notably lower, with some grades trading only in the 1,400–2,000 yuan/mt range. The price spread reflects differences in cargo quality, shipping costs, and port arrival stability: cargoes from the US Gulf Coast are supported by rebounding EIA production and aggressive Indian buying, whereas Saudi high-sulphur petcoke is under pressure due to shipment disruptions from the Satorp and Yanbu refineries, leading to unstable port arrivals and depressed prices. Consolidating at recent highs: Since July, port spot prices have shown a pattern of mixed performance and consolidation at highs. Low-sulphur petcoke has softened slightly in the off-season demand period, but declines have been limited; high-sulphur petcoke prices have diverged due to different shipment paces from the US Gulf and the Middle East. Overall, the cost side (import average price up 37.88% YoY) provides solid support for domestic prices, leaving relatively small downside room. This price structure indicates that the global supply tightness in H1 was not simply an "overall shortage," but rather the result of structural tightness in low-sulphur resources combined with regional mismatches in high-sulphur resources. VIII. H2 Outlook Looking ahead to H2, whether global supply can truly shift from decline to growth depends on three key variables: the pace of de-escalation in the Middle East, the pace of resumption at accident-hit refineries in the US and Mexico, and the strength of export recovery after easing of sanctions on Venezuela. Against the backdrop of the maintenance peak receding and some units planning to resume production, the supply-demand gap is expected to narrow further and gradually return to balance. However, the structural tightness of high-quality low-sulphur resources may remain the main theme throughout the year.

[7.28 Morning Meeting Minutes] On July 24, Trump ordered a suspension of airstrikes on Iran (following 13 consecutive nights of strikes), primarily due to the depletion of air defense interceptor reserves and to leave room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran announced a suspension of reciprocal strikes on the 26th. Brent crude oil plunged 5% at Monday's open to around $92, and WTI fell to around $84.70. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract fell in morning trading, closing at 132,170 yuan/mt, down 0.42%. The US-Iran conflict has pressed pause, crude oil prices dropped significantly, and as sulfur cost support weakened, nickel prices pulled back. The US Fed will hold its July FOMC meeting on July 29, and the market widely expects interest rates to remain unchanged, easing macro pressure. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in a core range of 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt in the near term.

[SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary: Wafer Producers Show Overall Production Cut Trend in August, Solar Cell Producer Inventory Continues Under Pressure] Wafers: According to SMM’s latest survey, August showed an overall production cut trend, but the reduction was limited. Recently, as wafer prices fell below cash cost, top-tier players with excessive inventory pressure opted to cut production. Additionally, the total volume and distribution ratio of external toll processing saw adjustments. Solar Cells: This week, the industry’s total inventory level rose WoW, with producers’ inventory pressure continuing, persistently constraining the momentum of price recovery.

[SMM Morning Briefing: LME Inventory Continues to Decline and LME Zinc Center Moves Higher] Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,591.5/mt and immediately dipped to $3,591.5/mt. Entering the European trading session, bears reduced positions, pushing the price up to hit a high of $3,627.5/mt. Afterwards, the price pulled back somewhat. During the night session, prices continued to consolidate at highs. It ended higher at $3,615/mt, up $27.5/mt or 0.77%. Trading volume dropped to 8,356 lots, and open interest decreased by 1,942 lots to 249,000 lots.

SMM, July 28: In metals markets: Base metals generally rose in overnight trading both domestically and overseas, with only LME nickel and SHFE nickel both declining—LME nickel fell 0.23%, SHFE nickel fell 0.44%. LME copper led the gains with a 1.09% increase, while LME zinc and LME tin both rose over 0.7%—LME zinc gained 0.77% and LME tin gained 0.72%. Other metals rose within 1%. Alumina main contract fell 0.7%, while cast aluminum main contract rose 0.37%. Ferrous metals generally fell overnight, with stainless steel down 0.82%, HRC, rebar, and iron ore all down over 0.3%—HRC fell 0.33%, rebar fell 0.36%, and iron ore fell 0.34%. In coking coal and coke, coking coal fell 2.04%, while coke fell 0.65%. In precious metals overnight, COMEX gold rose 0.19%, while COMEX silver fell 0.36%. Domestically, SHFE gold fell 0.18% and SHFE silver fell 0.72%. Overnight closing prices as of 6:44 AM July 28: Macro Front China: [ NBS: Profits of China's Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Rose 18.7% in Jan–Jun; Electronics-Related Sectors Saw Rapid Profit Growth ] On July 27, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in H1, against the backdrop of stable industrial production growth and a continued rebound in industrial product prices, the operating revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.5% YoY, accelerating 1.5 percentage points from Q1. The faster revenue growth drove profits of industrial enterprises above designated size up 18.7% YoY, accelerating 3.2 percentage points from Q1. By the three major categories, profits in mining and manufacturing rose 33.5% and 20.1%, respectively, accelerating 17.3 ppt and 1.0 ppt from Q1; profits in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply fell 4.2%. In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide rose 15.1% YoY. In H1, profits of raw material manufacturing enterprises above designated size surged 71.7% YoY, boosting the overall industrial profit growth by 8.8 ppt. By sector, driven by factors such as favorable demand for non-ferrous metals like copper and aluminum, profits in the non-ferrous sector jumped 99.4%, boosting overall industrial profit growth by 4.7 ppt. Propelled by rising prices of petroleum-related products, the petroleum processing sector turned from a loss to a profit YoY, while profits in the chemical sector grew 67.8%. US Dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.08% overnight to 101.53. Citadel Securities expects the US Fed to raise interest rates this week—a surprise move that would reinforce Chairman Kevin Warsh's credibility in the fight against inflation. In a report, Frank Flight, the firm's head of macro strategy, wrote that a 25-bp hike on Wednesday would cement Warsh's repeated commitment to restoring price stability while signaling that policymakers no longer rely on signaling every policy move in advance. "Markets may again be underestimating the degree of the Fed's hawkish shift." This week's hike would "decisively end the era of forward guidance" while underscoring the Fed's independence. US President Trump on Monday commented on the Fed, saying that Chairman Warsh is very good but he has to deal with the committee's issues. He believes Warsh will do the right thing and knows what Warsh wants. On interest rates, Trump said rates should be lower and the US should have the lowest rates in the world. He also mentioned that costs are falling rapidly. (Jin10) Citi traders are betting that the Fed will hold rates steady this week, even though the swaps market assigns over a one-third probability to a 25-bp hike. Citi’s global head of short-term rates trading, Akshay Singal, said the bank is taking on July FOMC meeting contracts based on “high conviction”—positions that will pay off if the central bank stays on hold. Currently, the swaps market sees a nearly 40% probability of a 25-bp hike this week. This comes after escalating Middle East tensions triggered wild swings in oil prices and US Treasury yields, fueling inflation worries. “We remain strongly forecasting that the Fed will hold rates steady,” Singal told Bloomberg News. He added that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh “has made it very clear that he wants the market to focus on the data, and the data tell us there’s no need for the Fed to hike now.” Singal said Warsh’s opposition to forward guidance has also added to market uncertainty. “The market is currently lacking clear guidance,” Singal said. “We expect a healthy and robust debate, but ultimately rates will be left unchanged.” (Wall Street CN) According to CME FedWatch: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 36.3%. By September, the probability of rates staying on hold is 18.5%, the probability of a cumulative 25-bp hike is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-bp hike is 25.8%. (Jin10) Other Currencies: Capital Economics economist Neil Shearing said in a report that while markets have priced in slightly more than 50 bp of rate hikes from the Fed, BOE, and ECB by mid-2027, policy paths could diverge next year. If the Iran war ends, energy prices will retreat and domestic economic fundamentals will become the main driver of monetary policy. However, underlying inflation pressures in the UK and eurozone are weaker. The situation in the US is different, and fiscal policy also remains relatively loose. Shearing said it is becoming increasingly difficult to justify the tightening expectations priced in for the ECB and BOE, though the Fed may resume tightening before long. (Jin10) According to people familiar with the matter, the Swiss National Bank plans to keep its key interest rate at zero until the end of 2027 before potentially starting to hike. This view is based mainly on current inflation forecasts and assumes no major new shocks. They noted that the recent softening of the Swiss franc against the euro and the interest rate differential between Switzerland and the eurozone are also factors shaping this expectation. The people said that if the economic outlook faces fresh shocks, implementing negative rates remains an option, but they stressed that this is not the current baseline scenario. They added that zero rates have not seriously hurt the profitability of the Swiss banking sector. The SNB kept rates unchanged at its June meeting and expects to keep them on hold until the end of next year. (Jin10) Macro Front: Today, data releases include the US ADP employment change for the week ending July 11, the May FHFA House Price Index MoM, the May S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index YoY (NSA), the July Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and the July Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. In addition, RBA Governor Bullock will speak, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with US President Trump. Crude Oil: Both oil benchmarks plunged overnight, with WTI falling 8.29% and Brent falling 6.9%. The Middle East geopolitical risks that had been driving the relentless surge in oil prices showed clear signs of cooling. US President Trump confirmed that he would suspend a new round of strikes against Iran, leaving a window for diplomatic negotiations, and the market rapidly unwound the “war premium” previously priced in. Market analysis suggests that the sharp sell-off was not driven by a sudden deterioration in demand but rather a concentrated release of the risk premium that had accumulated rapidly due to Strait of Hormuz transit risks and escalating US-Iran military tensions. However, several institutions also warned that the current situation remains far from genuine de-escalation, and oil prices could still rebound sharply if military action escalates again. (Wall Street CN) Although market sentiment has improved markedly, analysts generally believe it is still too early to say that Middle East risks have passed. The Wall Street Journal noted that the US suspension of military action has increased the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution to the crisis and boosted market expectations that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will eventually normalize. However, key variables including Red Sea shipping security, attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the Iran nuclear issue, and the future passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved, meaning international oil prices will remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments. Reuters also pointed out that the market’s focus this week will remain on whether US-Iran contacts can achieve substantive progress. If negotiations fail and military action re-escalates, the risk premium just released from the energy market could quickly return to oil prices. (Wall Street CN) US President Trump said on Monday that the US has collected more than $13 billion from Venezuelan crude oil sales since US forces abducted former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in a cross-border operation. “Venezuela has brought us $13 billion? I think it’s more than that,” Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Michigan to visit a General Motors plant. “We’ve more than made back the cost of that war many times over.” Trump claimed the money was used to keep Venezuela running. “We’re making a lot of money—billions and billions of dollars from Venezuela.” (Financial Times)

SMM July 27 News: Metal Market: At the midday break, domestic base metals were mixed. SHFE copper rose 0.31%, while SHFE aluminum edged lower. SHFE lead fell 1.11%. SHFE zinc rose 0.3%. SHFE tin rose 1.86%. SHFE nickel fell 0.42%. In addition, the most-traded cast aluminum futures contract fell 0.13%, while the most-traded alumina contract rose 0.19%. Lithium carbonate’s most-traded contract rose 0.86%. Silicon metal’s most-traded contract rose 0.24%. Polysilicon’s most-traded futures contract rose 0.15%. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore rose 0.27%, rebar rose 0.33%, and HRC rose 0.55%. Stainless steel fell 0.34%. For coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 0.62%, and the most-traded coke contract rose 0.87%. In overseas base metals, as of 11:40, LME metals showed mixed performance. LME copper rose 0.49%, while LME aluminum fell 0.27%. LME tin and LME zinc each rose within 0.5%. LME lead edged lower. LME nickel fell 0.32%. In precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold rose 0.42% and COMEX silver rose 1.1%. In the domestic market: SHFE gold rose 0.87%; the most-traded SHFE silver contract rose 2.97%. In addition, at the midday break, the most-traded platinum futures contract rose 2.31%, and the most-traded palladium futures contract rose 2.22%. At the midday break, the most-traded container shipping (European route) futures contract fell 3.02% to 2,750 points. Selected futures midday prices as of 11:40, July 27: Spot and Fundamentals Silver: Trump suspended airstrikes on Iran, cooling geopolitical tensions temporarily; oil prices tumbled, and inflation and rate-hike expectations eased, while precious metals rebounded. The spot market sustained parity deals, with the weak supply-demand pattern persisting. …… 》Click for details Macro Front China: [ NBS: Profits of China's Industrial Enterprises Above Designated Size Rose 18.7% in 1H; Electronics-Related Sectors Posted Rapid Profit Growth ] On July 27, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released data showing that in H1, amid steady manufacturing growth and a continued rebound in industrial product prices, revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 6.5% YoY, an acceleration of 1.5 percentage points from Q1. Accelerating revenue growth drove profits of industrial enterprises above designated size up 18.7% YoY, accelerating 3.2 percentage points from Q1. By major sector, mining and manufacturing profits grew 33.5% and 20.1%, respectively, accelerating 17.3 and 1.0 percentage points from Q1; electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply fell 4.2%. In June, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size rose 15.1% YoY. In H1, profits of the raw material manufacturing sector above designated size rose 71.7% YoY, boosting overall profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size by 8.8 percentage points. From an industry perspective, driven by improving demand for non-ferrous metal products such as copper and aluminum, profits of the non-ferrous metals sector rose 99.4%, boosting overall profit growth by 4.7 percentage points; driven by higher prices of products in the petroleum industry chain, the petroleum processing sector swung from losses to a profit YoY, and profits of the chemical sector rose 67.8%. The PBOC conducted 325.5 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repo operations today at an interest rate of 1.40%. A total of 398.5 billion yuan of reverse repos and 400 billion yuan of MLF matured today. US Dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index fell 0.26 to 101.22. The market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged this week. According to CME FedWatch: the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 63.7%, while the probability of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 36.3%. The probability of unchanged rates through September is 19.6%, a cumulative 25bp hike is 55.2%, and a cumulative 50bp hike is 25.2%. Data: Today will see the release of data including Germany's July IFO Business Climate Index, the UK's July CBI Distributive Trades Survey balance, the US June durable goods orders MoM, and the US July Dallas Fed New Orders Index. Crude Oil: As of 11:40, oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic fell sharply, with WTI down 4.97% and Brent down 3.93%. US-Iran geopolitical tensions eased slightly, and oil prices fell sharply at the open on Monday as traders assessed Middle East supply risks. With the US-Iran conflict spreading from the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, Brent crude has surged about 30% this month, briefly breaking above $100 per barrel last week. The conflict, now nearing the end of its fifth month, has heightened concerns about a global inflation shock as the global fuel market has lost idle capacity while the war drives up prices, and refined product prices have jumped. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Roundup: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Middle East Situation Sees Phased De-escalation, SHFE Tin Center Shifts Higher and Consolidates at Highs]

SMM nickel July 27 news: Macro and market news: (1) Trump ordered a halt to airstrikes on Iran on July 24 (after 13 consecutive nights of strikes), mainly due to the depletion of air defense interceptor reserves and to leave room for diplomatic negotiations. Iran announced a suspension of reciprocal strikes on the 26th. Brent crude opened sharply lower on Monday, dropping 5% to around $92, while WTI fell to around $84.7. (2) Fed meeting on July 29: the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%. Spot market: On July 27, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 133,000 yuan/mt, up 650 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 1,200 yuan/mt, down 250 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -400 to 500 yuan/mt. Futures market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2609) fell in early trading, closing at 132,170 yuan/mt, down 0.42%. The US-Iran conflict hit a pause, crude oil prices fell sharply, the cost support logic from sulfur weakened, and nickel prices pulled back. The Fed’s July FOMC meeting will be held on July 29, and the market widely expects rates to remain unchanged, easing macro pressure. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract in the short term is expected to be 130,000-137,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Daily Review: US Fed Ceasefire Expectations Rise, Gold and Silver Surge Awaiting US Fed Decision] SMM, July 27: Trump suspended airstrikes on Iran, briefly cooling geopolitical tensions, leading to a sharp drop in oil prices. Eased inflation and rate hike expectations spurred a rebound in precious metals. The spot market maintained parity transactions, with a supply-demand weakness pattern persisting.