[U.S.-Iran Conflict Sees Dramatic Reversal, ECB Rate Hike Weighs on Metal Prices] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China is expected to provide strong bottom support for aluminum prices, and expectations of rising energy costs also create a bullish driver for aluminum prices; this Thursday, the destocking pace of China's aluminum ingot social inventory noticeably accelerated, effectively alleviating the previous high inventory pressure. However, China's high inventory pressure remains relatively pronounced and is expected to limit the upside room for domestic aluminum prices. In the short term, domestic aluminum prices are expected to mainly undergo volatile adjustments.

Raw material side, lithium carbonate prices edged up this week, nickel sulphate prices fluctuated, and cobalt sulphate prices continued to fall.

[SMM Central China Spot Aluminum Midday Review] SHFE aluminum prices experienced a slight correction. Shipment sentiment in the central China market improved further today compared to the previous two days, but downstream processing enterprises preferred to purchase at lower premiums, while suppliers showed weak willingness to hold prices firm. Market quotes declined continuously, gradually shifting from a discount of 100-110 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract before market open to a discount of around 120-140 yuan/mt against the same contract, with the mainstream transaction range being at a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract.

SMM, June 11: In early trading, the SHFE aluminum 2606 contract fluctuated upward, with the overall price center moving higher compared to the previous trading day. Today, market shipment sentiment was somewhat raised, and seller quotes moved up. However, affected by the higher aluminum price, downstream purchasing sentiment was suppressed. The mainstream spot aluminum transaction price in the market was at a discount of 90-120 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. Today, the east China market Shipment Sentiment Index was 2.89, up 0.03 MoM; the Purchasing Sentiment Index was 286, down 0.04 MoM. The aluminum futures price experienced a slight correction. Today, the shipment sentiment in the central China market further improved compared to the previous two days, but downstream processing enterprises preferred to purchase at low premiums, and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm was not strong. Market quotes trended lower, gradually shifting from a discount of 100-110 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract before the opening to around a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the contract. The mainstream transaction range was at a discount of 120-140 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract. Today, the central China market Shipment Sentiment Index was 2.90, up 0.01 MoM; the Purchasing Sentiment Index was 2.22, flat MoM. Inventory side, today, aluminum ingot inventory in major consumption areas was down 1.95 MoM, with all three regions showing destocking trends.

June 10, 2026 The price of gold has triggered a technical warning signal by falling below its 200-day moving average. If upcoming U.S. inflation data reinforces expectations of persistently high interest rates, market observers warn that the precious metal could face an extended correction down to $4,000 per ounce. While short-term momentum is clearly weakened, many observers believe the long-term, structural investment thesis for gold remains intact. Technical sell-off accelerates After the gold price failed to establish itself permanently above the $4,500 mark, the subsequent break of the closely watched 200-day moving average has noticeably intensified selling pressure. Analysts at FOREX.com, for example, view this as having permanently damaged the short-term chart picture. The next critical support level is now a long-term upward trend line in the $4,230 range, followed by the annual lows from March at around $4,100. Should this zone also fall, the market will lack solid technical support levels, making a pullback to the psychologically important $4,000 mark likely. A look at the historical pattern in September 2023 highlights the relevance of this signal: At that time, the price plummeted by another 5 percent after breaking the 200-day moving average. Whether the bears retain control will thus be decided primarily by the key zone between $4,230 and $4,100. U.S. Inflation and a Restrictive Fed as Headwinds The fundamental headwind for the non-interest-bearing precious metal comes primarily from U.S. monetary policy . The upcoming US Consumer Price Index is eagerly awaited, with core inflation forecast to rise by 2.9 percent year-over-year. A hotter data point is likely to reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to keep interest rates at elevated levels for longer, which strengthens the US dollar and weighs on gold via rising opportunity costs (US Treasury yields). Other analysts also expect continued volatility with a moderate downward trend in the short term, given the robust U.S. labor market and persistent inflationary pressures. As long as bond yields remain high and hopes for rate cuts fade, only extreme geopolitical upheavals are likely to be able to reverse this macroeconomic trend. Structural drivers support the long-term outlook Despite the gloomy short-term outlook, experts advise against losing sight of the long-term perspective. They point to the ongoing diversification of global central bank reserves, as central banks worldwide are increasing their gold holdings to specifically reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar. Additionally, drastically rising government debt, fiscal risks in major industrialized nations, and geopolitical instability act as reliable, strategic drivers of demand. In this context, it is emphasized that the fundamental investment thesis remains intact. Systemic risks in the global financial system and real inflationary pressures persist. Two different time horizons are thus currently colliding in the gold market: While the technical picture and the interest rate environment point to further turbulence in the short term, gold remains supported in the long term by central bank purchases and systemic currency risks. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-under-pressure-how-hard-will-the-correction-hit

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Middle East Conflicts Flare Up Again, SHFE Tin Contract Price Center Continues to Decline to Around 390,000]

SMM, June 10 – Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt. During the Asian session, the price edged down slightly then fluctuated and recovered. In the European session, it touched a high of $2,001.5/mt. After hitting the high, selling pressure from above was released, and the market quickly turned downward. During the session, it dipped to $1,975/mt. At the close, the price underwent a slight correction and finally settled at $1,981/mt, down $7.5/mt, a decline of 0.38%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,190 yuan/mt. Initially after opening, the price slightly corrected. Then, short-term buying pushed the price slightly higher, reaching a high of 16,195 yuan/mt for this session. After the high, bulls lacked momentum to sustain, bears gradually took control, and the futures fluctuated downward. The price declined step by step, touching a low of 16,075 yuan/mt, and finally settled at 16,095 yuan/mt, recording a five-day losing streak, down 75 yuan/mt, a decline of 0.46%. Demand side, end-use consumption is weak, the peak season recovery has fallen short of expectations, and downstream stockpiling is cautious. Lead ingot inventory side, destocking is weak, inventories are gradually stabilizing, and expectations of inventory buildup are rising. Sentiment side, the most-traded SHFE lead contract has recorded a five-day losing streak, short positions are gradually increasing, and bearish sentiment is dominating in the short term. However, amid the sustained decline in lead prices, secondary lead smelters are holding prices firm and holding back from selling due to losses, coupled with cost support from scrap batteries below, providing some phased support to limit the downside room for lead prices.

Futures: Overnight, the LME lead 3M contract opened at $1,991/mt, edged down slightly during Asian hours before fluctuating higher, hit a high of $2,001.5/mt in the European session, after which overhead selling pressure was released and the market quickly turned downward, dipping to $1,975/mt during the session. Prices corrected slightly in late trading and finally settled at $1,981/mt, down $7.5/mt or 0.38%. Overnight, the SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,190 yuan/mt. Early in the session, prices saw a slight correction, then short-term buying pushed prices slightly higher to a session high of 16,195 yuan/mt. After the high, bulls lacked follow-through, bears gradually took control, and futures fluctuated downward, with prices moving lower in steps to 16,075 yuan/mt, finally settling at 16,095 yuan/mt, posting a five-day losing streak, down 75 yuan/mt or 0.46%. On the macro front: The U.S. military launched strikes against Iran over a helicopter incident, and Iran said it would respond resolutely. Trump: May participate in rebuilding Iran, but wants half the oil. Vance: A deal could be reached in the near term, but “definitely” before the midterm elections. U.S. media disclosed four major topics in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks. The EU plans to unveil its 21st round of sanctions against Russia. According to Nikkei: The Bank of Japan plans to raise rates to 1% at its June meeting. China's goods trade imports and exports grew 15.3% in the first five months. The U.S. added Alibaba, BYD, and others to its “military-related” list. Foreign Ministry: Urges the U.S. to stop unreasonable suppression of Chinese companies. Spot Fundamentals: In the morning, SHFE lead tumbled sharply, nearing the 16,000 mark. Suppliers diverged in their selling strategies, with a few still offering at discounts while most narrowed their discount quotes. In particular, smelters showed strong reluctance to sell at low prices, with some only selling under long-term contracts. Mainstream primary lead smelters offered electrolytic lead at parity with the SMM #1 lead average price EXW. In the secondary lead sector, smelters were reluctant to sell at low prices, with most halting shipments. Some secondary refined lead was offered at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt over SMM #1 lead EXW, resulting in an inverted relationship with primary lead. Downstream enterprises’ rigid demand favored the primary lead market, mainly sourcing cargoes self-picked up from production sites. The market saw both wait-and-see sentiment and dip-buying. Inventory: As of June 9, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,200 mt to 308,050 mt. As of June 8, total social inventory of SMM lead ingots across five regions stood at 64,700 mt, down 2,100 mt from June 1 and down 2,400 mt from June 4. Today's Lead Price Forecast: Demand side, end-use consumption is weak, peak-season recovery fell short of expectations, and downstream stockpiling remains cautious. On the lead ingot inventory front, destocking has been weak and has gradually stabilized, while expectations of inventory buildup are intensifying. On the sentiment front, the most-traded SHFE lead contract has posted five consecutive losses, with short positions gradually increasing and bearish sentiment gaining the upper hand in the short term. However, amid the persistent decline in lead prices, secondary lead smelters, facing losses, are holding prices firm and holding back from selling. Coupled with cost support from scrap batteries below, the downside room for lead prices finds some phased support.

June 8, 2026 Increased mine production, rising recycling, but declining overall demand—at first glance, not a typical environment for new price records. Nevertheless, the experts at Metals Focus forecast an average gold price of $4,920 per ounce for 2026, representing a 43 percent increase from the previous year. This apparent contradiction stems from a profound structural shift in the gold market that has far-reaching implications for the industry. Bullion and coins overtake gold jewelry for the first time The most significant change is taking place on the demand side: In 2026, physical investments in bullion and coins are expected to replace gold jewelry as the largest source of demand for the first time. This trend was already emerging in 2025, when physical investment demand climbed 16 percent to a twelve-year high—driven primarily by growth in China (up 28 percent) and India (up 17 percent). At the same time, global jewelry production plummeted by 19 percent to a five-year low of 1,646 tons. For 2026, Metals Focus anticipates a further decline of 11 percent. The historically high price level is forcing consumers and manufacturers to opt for lighter pieces, lower karat grades, or more affordable alternatives such as gold-filled materials. Consequently, gold is not disappearing from demand but is shifting its primary function from a consumer good to a pure investment product. Unlike jewelry purchases, this investment demand is far less price-sensitive and is primarily driven by motives such as asset protection, diversification, and hedging against currency risks and uncertainties. Lower overall demand—but a higher gold price Although overall demand is expected to decline in 2026 due in part to a slowdown in the jewelry sector, the high quality of buyers supports the projected price surge. Simply looking at total tonnage falls short in the current environment. As early as 2025, gold-backed exchange-traded products (ETFs) recorded their highest annual inflows since 2020, at 803 tons. The driving forces behind this were tariffs, growing U.S. government debt, doubts about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy independence, and geopolitical tensions. These factors will persist in 2026 and will be exacerbated by high stock market valuations and uncertainties regarding the long-term trajectory of the U.S. dollar. The precious metal is thus assuming an increasingly strategic role in investment portfolios. Central banks are buying less—but still at unusually high levels This strategic importance is also reflected in the behavior of central banks. Although net purchases fell by 22 percent to 848 tons in 2025, after having exceeded the 1,000-ton mark for three consecutive years, geographically broad-based demand remains well above pre-2022 levels. Sales were limited to a few countries and served primarily to rebalance portfolios following the recent gold rally. Despite headwinds such as the ongoing energy crisis, Metals Focus expects historically high net purchases in 2026 as well. While the pace of buying is slowing, the trend toward greater diversification of official reserves remains intact. Gold mines are producing more—but supply is slow to respond On the supply side, global mine production reached a new record of 3,817 tons (up 2 percent) in 2025. Growth was driven by new mines, expansions, and higher contributions from small-scale mining. A further increase of 2.4 percent to 3,907 tons is forecast for 2026, with all regions except Oceania and Europe expected to grow. Given the enormous price surge, this supply growth is nevertheless moderate and underscores that even strong price signals in the mining industry do not immediately lead to massive jumps in production. Compounding the issue is the fact that producers are grappling with significant cost increases: Global all-in sustaining costs (AISC) rose by 12 percent to $1,552 per ounce in 2025 due to inflation and taxes. For junior companies, this means that while a higher gold price improves the profitability of projects, factors such as grade, location, and infrastructure are increasingly decisive for success in light of cost trends. Why even record prices are barely triggering a recycling wave The supply of recycled gold is also responding sluggishly. In 2025, the volume rose by only 2.8 percent to 1,404 tons—a 13-year high that is, however, subdued relative to price trends. A 5.1 percent increase is forecast for 2026. This apparent contradiction can be explained by owners’ strong desire for security: precisely because of prevailing uncertainties, scrap gold is being sold less frequently. Paradoxically, the very factor driving prices is simultaneously limiting the additional supply that would normally cool the market. The Iran War Delays the Next Uptrend Short-term volatility remains a factor, however. Following new record highs at the start of 2026, a previously overbought market combined with shifting U.S. interest rate expectations led to a correction. The war in Iran is further fueling inflation, which limits the scope for interest rate cuts in the U.S. and drives up bond yields. In the short term, this is a headwind for gold, although geopolitical conflicts usually support the metal. Metals Focus, however, expects the rally to return once the situation calms down. The underlying premise: Policymakers are likely to tolerate slightly higher inflation rather than jeopardize economic growth through overly restrictive monetary policy. Conclusion: In 2026, it’s no longer just volume that counts in the gold market The market environment for 2026 is more complex than a purely quantitative analysis of supply and demand would suggest. The buyer structure is changing, strategic players are acting less price-sensitive, and structural drivers such as global debt and geopolitical risks remain. At the same time, supply from mines and recycling is growing only slowly. What is decisive, therefore, is not so much the absolute tonnage of total demand, but rather the fact that gold is undergoing a permanent shift from a consumer good to a strategic investment and reserve asset. The projected average price of $4,920 thus does not reflect mere exaggeration, but rather is an expression of a new, more resilient market structure. Source: https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-in-2026-new-market-structure-paves-the-way-for-a-rise-to-usd4-920

5 June 2026 08:30 (UTC+04:00) The global gold market is currently navigating a fascinating paradox that challenges conventional financial logic. For several months, the precious metal has experienced a downward price trajectory, sparking intense debate among analysts and market observers about its near-term direction. At first glance, a prolonged decline might suggest a waning interest in the asset or a fundamental shift away from its historic role in global finance. However, scratching beneath the surface of this downward trend reveals an entirely different underlying dynamic. The temporary softening of gold prices is not a sign of terminal weakness; rather, it represents a structural consolidation that, under the right conditions, is laying the groundwork for a substantial and potentially rapid upward reversal. To understand why a reversal is highly probable, one must look at the unprecedented level of institutional support currently stabilizing the market. As revealed in recent reports by the World Gold Council, sovereign banking institutions around the world are aggressively utilizing this period of depressed prices to expand their physical reserves. Specifically, global central banks net purchased 17 tons of gold in April 2026, registering the highest monthly purchasing pace since December 2024. When major institutional buyers like the central banks of Poland, China, and the Czech Republic consistently step into the market during price dips, they establish what technical analysts refer to as a hard price floor. This institutional baseline aligns with a broader multi-year trend, as central banks in Eastern Europe and Asia have demonstrated sustained dynamics over the last three years, purchasing a steady average of 12 and 11 tons of the precious metal per month, respectively. This massive, coordinated buying power absorbs excess supply and prevents a broader market collapse. In essence, these institutions are treating the current multi-month decline as a premium commercial window, accumulating significant volume at a discount. This steady institutional accumulation ensures that the structural demand for the metal remains exceptionally tight, meaning that any sudden shift in broader investor sentiment could quickly trigger a supply squeeze, driving prices sharply upward. Beyond the physical supply-and-demand mechanics, the future trajectory of gold is intimately tied to the evolving monetary policy of global financial hubs, particularly the United States Federal Reserve. The primary catalyst behind the recent months of downward pressure has been the resilience of global interest rates and the accompanying strength of major fiat currencies. Because gold is a non-yielding asset—meaning it does not pay a monthly dividend or fixed interest—high-yielding government bonds naturally become more attractive to short-term investors when interest rates remain elevated. However, this macroeconomic pressure is cyclical, not permanent. As global inflationary pressures eventually cool or as economic growth indicators begin to signal a broader slowdown, central banks will inevitably face mounting pressure to pivot toward rate cuts. The moment the monetary tide turns and borrowing costs begin to decrease, the opportunity cost of holding physical assets falls away. This shift historically causes a rapid capital reallocation, as institutional funds migrate out of cooling fixed-income securities and back into hard assets, driving a powerful upward rally. Simultaneously, the global landscape is defined by an accumulation of systemic vulnerabilities and geopolitical friction points that cannot be ignored. From complex supply chain vulnerabilities to shifting energy corridors and regional trade disputes, the modern global economy is operating under a cloud of persistent uncertainty. In periods of structural calm, investors frequently favor riskier, high-yielding equity markets, causing defensive assets to drift downward. Yet, history demonstrates that this calm can be deceptive. A sudden escalation in regional conflicts, an unexpected corporate debt default, or a sharp contraction in global manufacturing figures can instantly shift market psychology from optimism to extreme risk aversion. When these systemic shocks occur, the broader investing public quickly remembers the unique risk-mitigation properties of physical metals, leading to a surge in safe-haven buying that can reverse months of price declines in a matter of days. From a technical and psychological standpoint, a multi-month decline is also a healthy and necessary phase within a long-term cyclical market. No financial asset moves upward in a straight line indefinitely. After reaching historic peaks in previous cycles, a period of profit-taking and price correction is standard market behavior. This cooling-off period flushes out speculative, short-term leverage and transfers ownership into the hands of disciplined, long-term investors who are less likely to sell during bouts of volatility. Major international investment banking firms continue to maintain a highly constructive long-term outlook on the metal precisely because they recognize this healthy structural resetting. The longer the price consolidates within this current lower range, the more energy it gathers for its next directional move. Crucially, if the current buying process persists—whereby global central banks maintain their recent momentum of adding 17 tons of gold monthly, echoing the strongest purchasing pace since December 2024, alongside Eastern European and Asian central banks sustaining their three-year average of 12 and 11 tons per month—this relentless institutional drain on global supply makes a decisive upward price breakout highly probable rather than just speculative. Therefore, if the current downward trend continues to persist, it should not be viewed as a sign of permanent decay but rather as a coiled spring, building the fundamental momentum necessary to launch a powerful and sustained upward breakout once the macroeconomic catalysts align. Source： https://www.azernews.az/analysis/259317.html