Commodity markets have experienced extreme fluctuations in recent weeks – but not all analysts see this as a shift in sentiment.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,974/mt, touched a high of $1,981.5/mt during the Asian session before fluctuating downward; it probed a low of $1,960.5/mt during the European session, then rose in late trading to close at $1,977.5/mt. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2603 contract opened at 16,660 yuan/mt, touched a low of 16,635 yuan/mt early in the session before fluctuating upward to a high of 16,750 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 16,705 yuan/mt, up 0.24%, forming a small bullish candlestick. On the macro front: CME Group: Plans to launch single-stock futures this summer. US Fed—①Hammack: Economic outlook is positive, inflation remains high, no urgent need for interest rate cuts this year. ②Logan: Adopts a "cautiously optimistic" stance on the effectiveness of current interest rate policy, more concerned about inflation. US December retail sales month-on-month recorded 0%, below the median forecast of 0.4%, previous value 0.60%. According to the EU-China Chamber of Commerce, the European Commission accepted Volkswagen's price commitments for China-made pure electric vehicles. China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued implementation opinions on accelerating the promotion and application of artificial intelligence in the bidding sector. Li Qiang: Reasonably develop rare earth resources, actively promote breakthroughs in key core technologies. The central bank released the China Monetary Policy Execution Report for Q4 2025: Continue to implement appropriately accommodative monetary policy. : Market circulation cargoes were limited in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai, coupled with most logistics being suspended, suppliers' quoting enthusiasm significantly decreased, with a few quoting following the market, mainly cargoes self-picked up from production site. Quotations for mainstream origin primary lead cargoes self-picked up from production site against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 50 yuan/mt ex-works. Secondary lead side, smelters awaited the holiday, quotations were scarce, a few secondary refined lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were around parity ex-works. Additionally, most downstream enterprises had halted production, some operating enterprises were also in the final stage, spot order procurement basically stopped, and transactions were rare in the spot market. Inventory side: On February 10, LME lead inventory was flat from the previous day at 232,750 mt. As of February 9, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five areas rose to a five-month high. Today's lead price forecast: Enterprises across the lead industry chain successively entered the holiday period, trading activity significantly decreased. Most primary lead suppliers completed clearing inventory last week, spot order quotations were scarce; many secondary lead smelters were on holiday and reluctant to sell at low prices, most enterprises suspended quotations. Downstream enterprises generally entered the year-end final stage, stockpiling targets were completed, and inquiry willingness was low. Additionally, as the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, logistics and transportation have tightened, and the spot market is experiencing light trading activity. Overall, the impact of fundamentals on lead price trends before the holiday has weakened, with attention turning to fluctuations in overseas markets that may affect lead prices. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Geopolitical Risks and Accelerated Seasonal Inventory Buildup Keep Aluminum Prices in the Doldrums] In summary, amid the combined effects of supply growth, seasonal demand pullback, and accelerated inventory buildup, aluminum prices are generally under pressure. It is expected that prices will remain in the doldrums in the short term, with limited room for a rebound.

【SMM Analysis: 2026 Chinese New Year Holiday Arrangements for Copper Cathode Rod Enterprises】With the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, production and holiday schedules for most copper cathode rod enterprises during the holiday period have been finalized. SMM, through market communication and a comparison with the YoY situation in 2025, provides a detailed analysis as follows:

(Washington, D.C. – February 10, 2026) After posting its strongest annual performance since 1979 last year, silver prices continued to set new highs in 2026, fueled by rising investor interest.

[Zinc Price "Year-End Hurdle": Pre-Holiday Hedging and Post-Holiday Pace Management Suggestions]With the 2026 Chinese New Year approaching and the last trading week before the holiday, SMM has summarized several key points to focus on in the zinc market before and after the holiday:

Pre-holiday, titanium concentrate prices softened amid weak downstream demand, while titanium dioxide saw inventory draws and price support from exports and pre-holiday restocking. Sponge titanium stabilized with export-led growth. Post-holiday demand will guide price trends across the chain.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Minutes: Seasonal Weakness Pressure Dominates, Aluminum Prices in the Doldrums] In summary, under the influence of earlier macro headwinds, a large amount of capital exited with profits, aluminum prices pulled back, and open interest decreased; however, as precious metals did not show a further downward trend, aluminum prices stabilized accordingly. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to consolidate.

Poland's central bank plans massive gold purchase despite record prices, potentially pushing bullion to 30% of total national assets.

SMM February 9: The tight supply situation in the raw material spot market continues to intensify, coupled with the holiday effect brought by the approaching Chinese New Year, the overall market is showing a pattern of "rising prices amid shrinking volume." Additionally, a major tungsten enterprise significantly raised its long-term contract prices, reigniting market bullish sentiment. On February 9, the average price of scheelite concentrate (≥65%) reached a record high of 680,500 yuan/metric ton, indicating a year-to-date increase of over 50%! The average price of APT (domestic) also rose to the historic milestone of 1 million yuan per metric ton on February 9, with a year-to-date increase of 49.25%! Tungsten enterprise significantly raised its long-term contract purchase prices for the first half of February Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd. of Chongyi's prices are as follows: 1. 55% scheelite concentrate: 670,000 yuan per metric ton, up 147,000 yuan per metric ton from the previous round; 2. 55% wolframite concentrate: 669,000 yuan per metric ton, up 147,000 yuan per metric ton from the previous round; 3. Ammonium paratungstate (standard grade zero): 970,000 yuan per metric ton, up 210,000 yuan per metric ton from the previous round. The Ganzhou Tungsten Industry Association's forecast prices for the tungsten market in February 2026 are: 55% scheelite concentrate at 670,000 yuan per metric ton, up 300,000 yuan per metric ton MoM; APT at 970,000 yuan per metric ton, up 300,000 yuan per metric ton MoM; medium-grain tungsten powder at 1,630 yuan per kg, up 480 yuan per kg MoM. (Prices are for reference only; assume commercial risks accordingly.) Furthermore, it is understood that some tungsten enterprises have suspended the publication of their long-term contract prices. Average Price of Ammonium Paratungstate (Domestic) Rises to 1 Million Yuan per Metric Ton, Up Over 49% Year-to-Date According to SMM price assessments, on February 9, the price range for scheelite concentrate (≥65%) was 680,000-681,000 yuan per metric ton, with an average price of 680,500 yuan per metric ton, up 1.19% from the previous trading day. Compared to the average price of 453,500 yuan per metric ton on December 31, 2025, this new high of 680,500 yuan per metric ton represents an increase of 227,000 yuan per metric ton year-to-date, a gain of 50.05%. Compared to the average price of 142,750 yuan per metric ton on December 31, 2024, the cumulative increase over more than a year reaches as high as 376.71% . On February 9, the price range for ammonium paratungstate (domestic) was 990,000-1,010,000 yuan per metric ton, with an average price of 1,000,000 yuan per metric ton. Compared to the average price of 670,000 yuan per metric ton on December 31, 2025, this average of 1,000,000 yuan per metric ton represents a year-to-date increase of 49.25%, rising sharply in sync with scheelite concentrate. Despite the continued sharp rise in tungsten prices, overall market trading activity has not kept pace recently, constrained mainly by multiple factors: First, with the Chinese New Year approaching, traders have become more cautious, focusing purchases on rigid demand, with only limited pre-holiday stockpiling and no large-scale concentrated stockpiling occurring. Second, high tungsten prices have led to both funding pressure and fear of high prices in the market, causing some downstream enterprises to postpone purchases and adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Third, the holiday effect is gradually becoming apparent, with some enterprises already entering a pre-holiday lull, leading to a general pullback in market trading frequency. The cemented carbide industry, a core demand sector for tungsten (accounting for 58% of total demand), is a typical example: affected by the soaring prices of raw materials like tungsten powder, production costs have increased significantly. Furthermore, tungsten materials like tungsten carbide account for over 80% of tool costs, forcing most cemented carbide enterprises to reduce procurement scale and maintain only production for rigid demand, further suppressing overall market trading activity. Outlook Looking ahead to the tungsten market outlook, in the short term, the tight spot supply situation on the raw material side is unlikely to ease quickly, and suppliers' reluctance to sell is expected to persist. The tungsten market is likely to maintain its strong upward trend. Key variables brought by the approaching Chinese New Year still require close attention: On one hand, market trading will gradually stagnate during the holiday period, and whether pre-holiday stockpiling demand concentrates will directly influence the short-term price movement pace. On the other hand, post-holiday enterprise work resumption progress, the recovery of raw material supply, and the strength of downstream demand release will determine whether tungsten prices can remain high. Additionally, international market price fluctuations, the signing of enterprise long-term contracts, industry policy direction, and the cost pass-through effect in the cemented carbide industry require continuous monitoring, while remaining vigilant against increased market risks from intensified price fluctuations in the high price range.