According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

According to SMM data, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises was 58.74% in February, down 14.13 percentage points MoM and down 11.54 percentage points YoY. February was affected by the Chinese New Year holiday. Leading enterprises maintained stable production and supply, with production showing strong resilience, basically sustaining “no holiday shutdowns” or only 0–3 days , and ensuring normal operations during the Chinese New Year period through shift rotations on production lines. Although orders saw slight fluctuations of 2%–10%, they remained overall under control. However, small and medium-sized enterprises performed poorly in February, dragging down the overall operating rate. Looking ahead to March, the operating rate of copper pipe & tube enterprises is expected to be 77.88%, up 19.14 percentage points MoM and down 7.35 percentage points YoY. The March production schedule of key air-conditioner enterprises fell 9.3% YoY from last year, in line with the YoY decline trend in copper pipe & tube operating rates. However, most copper pipe & tube enterprises said March production is expected to be better than expectations, and there are concerns over advance production and stockpiling. Worth noting is that R&D on high-performance alloy copper tubes by China’s leading enterprises will further reduce copper consumption in air conditioners, and most other enterprises are currently developing this type of technology as well. This has also increased orders for those domestic copper pipe & tube enterprises that already possess such technology, diluting the market share of other enterprises. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East reduced some home appliance export orders to the region, and the April production schedules of some domestic air-conditioner enterprises with relatively high market share exposure there are expected to decline.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $11,816/mt. After dipping to $11,798/mt in early trading, its center rose sharply to a high of $12,395/mt, then hovered at highs, and finally closed at $12,221/mt, up 3.27%. Trading volume reached 52,000 lots, and open interest stood at 292,000 lots, down 944 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions overall. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,010 yuan/mt. After the opening, its center moved higher to a high of 95,900 yuan/mt, after which copper prices maintained a fluctuating trend at highs. Near the close, it dipped to 94,530 yuan/mt and finally closed at 93,840 yuan/mt, up 2.12%. Trading volume reached 120,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, down 6,741 lots from the previous trading day, mainly reflecting bears cutting positions throughout the day.

SMM News, March 24: Today, in Guangdong, spot prices for #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract were reported at a premium of 70 yuan/mt for high-quality copper, down 30 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; a discount of 30 yuan/mt for standard-quality copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday; and a discount of 90 yuan/mt for SX-EW copper, down 20 yuan/mt from yesterday. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 94,030 yuan/mt, up 1,045 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 93,920 yuan/mt, up 1,055 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Guangdong inventory declined for six consecutive days, mainly due to limited arrivals and higher shipments. Although inventory continued to fall, downstream users showed weak restocking interest as copper prices surged sharply. Suppliers had to keep lowering spot premiums to conclude deals. Overall, trading activity in the market was noticeably weaker today than yesterday. Today, the purchasing sentiment for copper cathode in Guangdong was 2.48, down 0.15 from the previous trading day, and the shipment sentiment was 3.31, down 0.11 from the previous trading day (historical data is available in the database). Overall, after the sharp rebound in copper prices, downstream buying sentiment weakened, and spot premiums moved lower.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Copper prices rose from yesterday, but both buying and selling sentiment pulled back intraday, indicating that downstream acceptance of current price levels remained limited. In terms of market structure, under the current price spread between futures contracts structure, suppliers showed strong willingness to sell, with some offloading cargo, driving overall spot discounts down rapidly, while downstream willingness to make counteroffers was relatively evident. Entering the second trading session, after premiums were cut further, market transactions improved somewhat, but downstream procurement remained generally cautious, mainly focused on restocking on dips, with insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between suppliers actively selling and downstream buyers purchasing cautiously, Shanghai spot copper discounts were expected to remain under pressure tomorrow.

Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Iran tensions are driving up aluminum prices and premiums. Aluminium Bahrain and Qatalum have cut output, while feedstock is tight. Rerouting via Port of Sohar or Saudi ports raises costs and delays. Buyers are turning to China, India, Russia, Canada, and scrap to offset risk. Prolonged disruption could reduce Middle East market share and reprice it as higher-risk supply.

March 24, 2026: The average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $52/mt (price range: $44-60/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $53/mt (price range: $45-61/mt); the average price of EQ copper (CIF B/L) was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $30/mt (price range: $25-35/mt), with quotations referring to cargoes scheduled to arrive from late March to mid-April. Intraday offers showed faint signs of continuing to rise, but transactions delivered mediocre performance. It was heard that a small volume of pyrometallurgy B/L arriving in late March was offered at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L arriving in late March and early April was offered at $35, while EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was offered at $35/mt and traded at $30/mt, with QP available in both April and May. General ER copper warrants for delivery within the week were offered at $50/mt, QP April.

SMM News, March 23: Data brief: As of Monday, March 23, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide fell 14.54% WoW from last Monday, with all regions posting significant destocking. Specifically, in Shanghai, the arrival pace of imported and domestic supplies remained normal, while downstream consumption continued to recover on the back of the pullback in copper prices, leading to notable inventory drawdowns; in Jiangsu, downstream consumption also improved significantly amid the sharp pullback in copper prices; in Guangdong, downstream consumption remained highly buoyant, and together with tighter supply, spot inventory dropped sharply. Looking ahead, arrivals of imported and domestic supplies are expected to remain stable, with the overall supply side tending to stabilize; on the demand side, the continued pullback in copper prices will further stimulate downstream procurement demand, and rigid demand is expected to continue to be released. According to survey data, the weekly operating rate of copper cathode rod is expected to rise to 83.76% this week, up 2.25 percentage points WoW. Considering both supply and demand, the market has currently formed a pattern of “stabilizing supply and continued recovery in consumption,” and social inventory is expected to continue destocking this week.

SMM Nickel News, March 24: Macro and Market News: (1) Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf denied having held talks with the US side and accused fake news of manipulating the financial and oil markets; Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it would launch new attacks on US targets and called Trump’s remarks “psychological warfare” (2) Israeli officials said Washington had set April 9 as the target date for ending the war. Talks between Iran and the US were expected to be held later this week in Pakistan, adding that Washington had not yet informed Israel of any contact with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Qalibaf. Spot Market: On March 24, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell 1,700 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In spot premiums, Jinchuan #1 refined nickel averaged 6,250 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; China’s mainstream brands of electrodeposited nickel were at -300-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: After surging sharply in the night session, the most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract pulled back in the morning session, closing the morning session at 132,830 yuan/mt, up 0.69%. Current nickel prices were in a stage of intense tug-of-war between macro headwinds and supply risks. Short term, tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas, continued gains in ore prices, and the risk of sulfur supply disruptions provided solid support below, but high inventory and the slow recovery in end-use demand still capped upside room. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract was expected at 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

Dalian iron ore futures rose in early trading and pulled back in the afternoon. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 824 yuan/mt, up 0.55% from the previous trading session. Spot prices rose by about 2-5 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders were relatively active in offering quotes, while steel mills made fewer inquiries and purchased cautiously, with overall transactions in the spot market remaining average. In terms of fundamental data, blast furnace maintenance intensity continued to pull back this week, with maintenance affecting hot metal production by 1.65 million mt, down 206,500 mt WoW. It was expected to decrease by a further 180,000 mt next week to 1.4684 million mt, indicating a gradual improvement on the demand side. In terms of supply, tight supply still persisted in the market, and there was no news of any significant adjustment, which remained supportive for iron ore in the short term. However, some funds, out of concern over downstream risks, tended to stay on the sidelines, and overall wait-and-see sentiment was strong. In summary, iron ore prices were expected to hover at highs in the short term.