Since the beginning of this year, the spot treatment charge market for copper concentrates has shown an unprecedented and severe downward trend. The SMM Copper Concentrate Spot Index has fallen from -45 USD/dmt at the start of the year to near -70 USD/dmt, with the speed and magnitude of the decline being historically rare. A negative treatment charge means that when smelters purchase copper concentrates, they not only fail to receive traditional processing income from miners but instead must pay the sellers. Based on the current TC of -70 USD/dmt, the actual cost smelters pay sellers in the copper smelting process is equivalent to a TC of 70 USD, or further converted to a TC+RC of approximately 112 USD. This extreme price signal has quickly drawn high market attention to smelter profitability and even sparked concerns about the sustainability of domestic copper smelting production. Despite treatment charges falling to historic lows, copper cathode production by Chinese smelters remains at high levels, currently around 1.2 million tons per month. This phenomenon of "producing more while losing more" appears, on the surface, to contradict market logic, but actually reflects smelters' passive choices and structural supporting factors in the current complex environment. Historically, extreme treatment charge scenarios are not unprecedented. In past industry downturns, smelters often relied on one or several factors—exchange rate fluctuations, rising sulfuric acid prices, or treatment charges themselves—to barely maintain cash flow balance. In the current cycle, the sharp rise in sulfuric acid prices has become a key variable supporting smelter survival. Currently, the ex-factory prices of smelter acid sold by domestic copper smelters generally range from 800 to 1,600 yuan per ton. The latest SMM Copper Smelting Acid Index stands at 1,235.5 yuan/ton. As a crucial byproduct of copper smelting, sulfuric acid price fluctuations significantly impact smelters' comprehensive earnings. Typically, smelters produce approximately one ton of sulfuric acid for every dry metric ton of copper concentrate processed. Based on the current sulfuric acid price of 1,235.5 yuan/ton, after deducting value-added tax (at a 13% rate) and converting to US dollars (using an exchange rate of 6.9), each ton of sulfuric acid can contribute about 158 USD in revenue for the smelter, equivalent to an additional 158 USD per dry metric ton of copper concentrate. If further converted to the TC+RC metric, this amounts to about 99 USD. Thus, the rise in sulfuric acid prices has significantly offset the loss pressure from negative copper concentrate treatment charges, with some more efficient smelters even achieving marginal profitability. It is precisely this "stabilizer" role of sulfuric acid that allows smelters to maintain high operating rates under extreme treatment charge conditions. However, the support of sulfuric acid for smelting profits is not unlimited, as its price trend is itself influenced by more complex international geopolitical factors. The recent sharp escalation of the Middle East situation has brought significant uncertainty to the global sulfuric acid and sulfur supply chain. Since the joint US-Israeli military strike against Iran on February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical energy transport route, has rapidly fallen into a severe transit crisis. After taking office, Iran's new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, immediately declared that the strait would remain closed as a strategic lever against the US-Israeli alliance and suggested that neighboring countries close US military bases. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps subsequently explicitly announced a ban on any vessels associated with the US or Israel from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, warning of severe consequences for unauthorized passage. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global sulfur transport. Statistics show that before the conflict, over 100 ships passed through the strait daily. However, after the conflict erupted, transit traffic plummeted by over 90%, with extreme cases of no ships passing for an entire day, leaving over 3,000 vessels stranded in nearby waters. This effective blockade has not only directly impacted the crude oil market—with Brent crude futures rising over 50% within a month to exceed 114 USD per barrel—but has also severely disrupted the global supply chain for sulfur and sulfuric acid. War risks have caused shipping insurance costs to soar to over 20% of the cargo value, further increasing logistics costs and plunging global sulfur supply into a logistical crisis. Although Iran claims to allow passage for vessels from "non-hostile" countries, requiring them to obtain prior permission, actual transit volumes remain extremely low, far below global trade demand. Simultaneously, the Houthi armed group in Yemen has announced its involvement, posing new security threats to the Red Sea-Suez route. The compounding pressure on the two major shipping chokepoints of the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea is posing a systemic challenge to the global supply chains for energy and chemical raw materials. As the primary raw material for sulfuric acid production, the disruption in sulfur supply directly drives international and domestic sulfuric acid prices progressively higher. Given the current situation, geopolitical conflicts show no signs of easing in the short term, implying further room for sulfuric acid price increases. The continued rise in sulfuric acid prices will have a dual impact on the domestic copper smelting industry. On the one hand, increased sulfuric acid revenue will continue to provide crucial profit supplementation for smelters, enabling them to maintain production even at lower TC levels and potentially further depressing spot copper concentrate treatment charges. On the other hand, this surge in sulfuric acid prices, driven by geopolitical conflict, also makes smelter profitability highly dependent on external unstable factors, rendering the industry's overall risk resilience increasingly fragile. Notably, the extreme treatment charge environment has begun to have a tangible impact on the global layout of copper smelting capacity. Mitsubishi Materials of Japan recently announced its plan to cease operations at its Onahama copper smelter by the end of March 2027. The smelter has a crude and refined capacity of 230,000 tons, and the main reason for the closure is precisely the intensified competition in the global copper smelting industry, leading to a sharp deterioration in copper concentrate TC/RC and persistent pressure on business prospects. This decision sends a clear signal: against the backdrop of continuously bottoming treatment charges and industry profits highly dependent on byproducts and external environments, some high-cost smelting capacity or those lacking comprehensive recovery capabilities are facing pressure to exit the market. In summary, China's copper smelting industry is currently at a highly unusual cyclical juncture. On one hand, smelters, benefiting from high sulfuric acid prices, have temporarily weathered the impact of negative treatment charges, maintaining high output. On the other hand, sulfuric acid prices themselves are heavily dependent on geopolitical situations, and external variables like the Strait of Hormuz blockade introduce significant uncertainty into the sustainability of smelting profits. If tensions in the Middle East persist, sulfuric acid prices may continue to rise, leaving room for TC to fall further, potentially enhancing smelters' tolerance for extreme treatment charges in phases. However, if geopolitical tensions ease, sulfur supply chains recover, and sulfuric acid prices retreat from their highs, smelters would face the risk of a "double blow" from both low treatment charges and reduced byproduct revenue, potentially heralding a genuine phase of capacity reduction and deep adjustment for the industry. Therefore, the current apparent "resilience" of the copper smelting industry is essentially built upon a fragile balance between geopolitical factors and the byproduct market. For market participants, besides monitoring TC trends, it is crucial to closely track changes in sulfuric acid prices and the underlying geopolitical factors to make more accurate judgments regarding the production sustainability and profitability prospects of the smelting industry.

[SMM Analysis: The Copper Smelting Industry Faces the Test of Extreme TCs, with Sulphuric Acid and Geopolitics Becoming Key Variables] Since the beginning of this year, the spot market for copper concentrate TCs has shown an unprecedentedly sharp downward trend. The SMM spot copper concentrate index has fallen all the way from -$45/dmt at the start of the year and is now approaching -$70/dmt. Both the speed and magnitude of the decline have been historically rare. So-called negative TCs mean that when smelters purchase copper concentrates, they are not only unable to obtain traditional processing income from miners, but instead must pay fees to the seller. Based on the current TC of -$70/dmt, the cost that smelters actually need to pay to the seller in the copper smelting process is equivalent to a TC of $70, or further converted to a TC+RC of about $112. This extreme price signal has quickly triggered strong market concern over smelter profitability, and has even begun to raise worries about the sustainability of production in China’s copper smelting industry.

[SMM Analysis: Key Anchor in Great Power Rivalry: The U.S. "Project Vault" and the Changing Resource Landscape in Latin America] Amid the current accelerated reshaping of the global resource competition landscape, China's copper concentrate import pattern is undergoing a profound structural transformation. The latest trade data from 2025 clearly outlines this trend: China is significantly enhancing its capacity to acquire copper concentrate resources from neighboring countries.

》Check SMM metal quotes, data, and market analysis 》Subscribe to view historical price trends of SMM metal spot cargo On June 13, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$44.75/dmt, a decrease of $1.46/dmt from the previous -$43.29/dmt. The pricing coefficient for 20% grade domestic trade ore was 93%-95%. Trading activity in the copper concentrate spot market was sluggish during the week. A trader offered 10,000 mt of clean ore from Peru to a smelter at a price in the mid-to-high -$40s/dmt, with a loading period in July and a QP of M+1/5. A smelter had previously purchased 20,000 mt of Caserones and Centinela copper concentrates from a large trader under an index-linked settlement model, with a loading period in July and a QP of M+1/5. During the week, a trader offered 10,000 mt of bundled clean ore to a smelter at a high -$40s/dmt price, with a loading period in July. The gold payable was fully priced after a deduction of 0.3 for gold content below 1 gram. According to market rumors, a large trader offered copper concentrates to two leading domestic smelters, with a total volume of 300,000 mt of ore (long-term contract + spot cargo) at a price in the mid-to-high -$40s/dmt, with a loading period in H2. According to SMM, most Chinese smelters participating in long-term contract negotiations have not yet received a second-round long-term contract offer from Antofagasta. However, one smelter has already responded with a positive single-digit high offer. Japanese smelters have also not initiated a second-round long-term contract offer. They are adhering to the pricing stance since CESCO at the end of last year, insisting on a long-term contract price of $20/30, otherwise, their production and operation will face losses. Ivanhoe Mines announced its latest 2025 production guidance for copper from the Kamoa-Kakula mine, which is 370,000-420,000 mt in metal content, a decrease of 28% from the 520,000-580,000 mt in metal content guidance released at the beginning of the year, mainly due to the earthquake that previously hit the Kakula copper mine. Sinomine Resource Group announced that due to the rapid expansion of global copper smelting capacity, leading to a shortage of copper concentrate supply, its Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia has temporarily suspended copper smelting operations. In 2024, Sinomine Resource Group acquired the Tsumeb smelter. This smelter is one of the few facilities globally capable of processing copper concentrates containing arsenic and lead, with an annual processing capacity of 240,000 mt of copper concentrates. The SMM copper concentrate inventory at nine ports was 812,800 mt on June 13, an increase of 65,500 mt from the previous period. The main increase came from Qingdao Port, where copper concentrate inventory increased by 40,000 mt WoW this week. 》Check SMM metal industry chain database

Sinomine Resource Group of China announced that due to the rapid expansion of global copper smelting capacity, resulting in a shortage of copper concentrates supply, its Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia has temporarily suspended copper smelting operations. In 2024, Sinomine Resource Group acquired the Tsumeb smelter. The smelter is one of the few facilities globally capable of processing copper concentrates containing arsenic and lead. It has an annual processing capacity of 240,000 mt of copper concentrates.

Recently, China's Sinomine Resource Group announced that its Tsumeb copper smelter in Namibia has temporarily suspended copper smelting operations. According to the group, the shutdown is due to the rapid expansion of global copper smelting capacity, which has led to a shortage of copper concentrates supply. In 2024, Sinomine Resource Group acquired the Tsumeb smelter. The smelter is one of the few facilities globally capable of processing copper concentrates containing arsenic and lead. It has an annual processing capacity of up to 240,000 mt of copper concentrates and has previously processed metal ores from countries such as Chile, Peru, and Bulgaria.

[SMM Analysis:The mid-year negotiations are approaching, and the imbalanced supply-demand structure of copper concentrate will have far-reaching impacts ] Antofagasta’s mid-year negotiations with smelters in China, Japan, and South Korea are imminent, during which Antofagasta will launch negotiations with smelters. From the current situation, the outlook for buyers is not optimistic.

[SMM Analysis: Mid-Year Negotiations Approaching, Profound Impact of Imbalanced Copper Concentrates Supply and Demand Structure] Antofagasta's mid-year negotiations with smelters in China, Japan, and South Korea are approaching, and Antofagasta will commence mid-year negotiations with the smelters. Judging from the current situation, the outlook for buyers is not optimistic.

On April 23, at the CCIE-2025SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo - Main Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., with Jiangxi Copper Corporation and Yingtan Land Port Holding Co., Ltd. as main sponsors, and Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. as a special co-organizer, Xinhuang Group and Zhongtiao Mountain Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. as co-organizers, Wang Jianlong, Deputy Director of Metallurgy Department One of China ENFI Engineering & Technology Co., Ltd., shared insights on the global copper smelting landscape and intelligent development. Ben Knoefler, Chairman of the Board of KCI Group, analyzed the global copper market for 2025. 1 Global Copper Resource Distribution Overall, the world's copper resources are relatively abundant, with an estimated 31 billion tons of land-based copper resources and 7 billion tons in deep-sea nodules. Natural copper minerals include native copper, oxides, and sulfides. The world's proven copper reserves are about 10 billion tons, and based on current mine production, the static assurance period for mining is approximately 45 years. In terms of regional distribution, the main areas with concentrated copper ore resources globally are: (1) The western foothills of the Andes in Peru and Chile, South America; (2) The Cordillera region in the western part of the North American continent, mainly in the US and Mexico; (3) Central Africa, particularly in the DRC and Zambia; (4) Central Asia, mainly Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Russia; (5) Australia. The top five countries in terms of copper ore reserves are Chile, Peru, Australia, Russia, and the DRC, accounting for about 57% of the total. 2 Global Refined Copper Consumption Global copper consumption is mainly concentrated in two types of countries or regions. One type is traditional developed Western countries, where copper consumption is relatively stable. The other type is developing countries and regions experiencing rapid economic growth, which have higher copper consumption growth rates and are key factors in global copper consumption growth. According to ICSG statistics, global refined copper consumption in 2024 was 28.577 million mt, up 5.79% YoY. The growth in global refined copper consumption is mainly supported by strong apparent demand in China. The main areas of global copper consumption are power grids, construction, consumer goods, transportation, and engineering machinery, accounting for 28%, 27%, 22%, 12%, and 11% respectively. As a basic raw material, changes in copper consumption are closely related to global economic development. In recent years, consumption of copper plate/sheet and strip in traditional fields and copper foil for circuit boards has been relatively weak, while copper use in the power and new energy sectors has performed well. 3 Global Refined Copper Production and Capacity Distribution Global refined copper production in 2024 was 28.0228 million mt, up 4.07% YoY. The increase in refined copper production is mainly due to capacity expansion in China and the DRC, while production in other regions decreased by about 1%. As the largest consumer and producer of refined copper, China does not have a significant advantage in copper ore resources and needs to import large amounts of copper concentrates. China's refined copper production and copper concentrate imports In 2024, China's refined copper production was 13.644 million mt, and copper concentrate imports were 28.11 million mt. To address the current state of the copper smelting industry, relevant national departments are promoting the healthy and orderly development of the copper smelting industry through industrial policies, environmental protection policies, and other measures. In general, on the supply side, efforts are being made to deepen supply-side structural reforms, strictly control the disorderly expansion of copper smelting capacity, and accelerate intelligent and green transformation. On the demand side, enterprises are being guided to accelerate technological progress, overcome the shortcomings of copper-based new materials, and fully tap the potential applications of copper in new infrastructure and construction projects. Major Chinese Copper Smelters According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 40 copper smelters (production lines) nationwide, with four groups having a capacity of over 1 million mt/a. 4 Global Copper Smelting Processes and Their Development Copper Smelting Processes Pyrometallurgy (80%): Impurities are removed as slag at high temperatures, resulting in copper anode, which is then electrolyzed to produce refined copper. Traditional matte smelting, the main process for copper smelting, is suitable for sulfide ores. One-step copper smelting, with limited industrial application, is suitable for sulfide ores under special raw material conditions. Hydrometallurgy (20%): Copper is enriched in solution through leaching and extraction processes, followed by electrodeposition to produce refined copper. • Leach-extraction-electrodeposition, suitable for oxide ores, especially for large-scale processing of low-grade oxide ores. • Roast-leach-extraction-electrodeposition, suitable for sulfide ores, mixed ores, and copper-cobalt ores. • Oxygen pressure leach-extraction-electrodeposition, suitable for sulfide ores, mixed ores, and copper-cobalt ores. Copper Pyrometallurgical Process Flow It also elaborated on the hydrometallurgical process flow of copper, including roasting, leaching, extraction, and electrodeposition. Several Main Matte Smelting Processes and Their Development ► Flash Smelting: Flash smelting technology includes Outokumpu flash smelting and INCO flash smelting, with Outokumpu technology being widely applied. China began introducing flash smelting technology in the 1980s. Xiangguang Copper innovated boldly based on flash smelting technology, inventing the vortex flash smelting technology, which received a national invention patent. Advantages include high capacity, high automation, and longer furnace life; disadvantages include high investment, complex feed preparation system, poor adaptability to high-impurity raw materials, and the need to reduce costs through scale effects. Recent developments include: high oxygen (even pure oxygen) smelting, further expansion of single-furnace capacity (500,000 mt/a), continuous innovation and improvement of process equipment, and gradual localization. ► Top-Blown Smelting: Top-blown smelting technology, including Ausmelt smelting and ISA smelting, was introduced to China in the 1990s. Characteristics of top-blown smelting technology include using a submerged lance to blow air and oxygen into the melt pool, providing strong stirring and good reaction kinetics, and high production efficiency. Disadvantages include the need to add fuel, inability to separate slag and copper in the furnace, requiring a settling electric furnace, high comprehensive energy consumption, low utilization of oxygen and fuel, and short furnace life. Recent developments include: increasing oxygen concentration, improving matte grade, raising smelting temperature, and continuously extending lance and furnace life. ► Bottom-Blown Smelting: Bottom-blown smelting is a new copper smelting technology with independent intellectual property rights from China ENFI. It was first industrially applied in Vietnam in 2002, and the first bottom-blown copper smelting production line in China was put into operation in 2008. Advantages include simple feed preparation, low furnace investment, high oxygen utilization, and strong adaptability to raw materials, capable of handling high-impurity raw materials. Disadvantages include high copper content in slag and low direct recovery rate. Developments include: further expansion of single-furnace processing capacity (1.8 million mt/a of concentrate); as a representative technology for matte gold capture, it has low requirements for copper content in concentrate and has been applied in complex gold concentrate processing at Shandong Humon, Central China Gold, and Guotou Jincheng. Zhongjin Lingnan Copper Co., Ltd. (formerly Dongying Fangyuan) developed the "Zhongjin Method" for two-step copper smelting based on bottom-blown smelting. China ENFI and Baotou Huading Copper Industry developed the full bottom-blow three-furnace process based on bottom-blown smelting and continuous bottom-blowing. ► Side-Blown Smelting: Based on Vanyukov smelting technology, China developed and applied oxygen-enriched double side-blowing smelting technology in 2009, which has rapidly developed in recent years. Characteristics of side-blown smelting technology include blowing air and oxygen into the melt pool through tuyeres on both sides of the furnace, improving mass and heat transfer conditions, with low blowing pressure, low copper content in slag, and relatively simple operation. Disadvantages include the need for manual opening and plugging of tuyeres and the need to add coal (mainly to inhibit magnetic iron in slag). Recent developments: Rapidly achieved a leap from 100,000 mt capacity to 400,000 mt capacity, with the maximum bed area reaching 70 square meters. ► P-S Converter Blowing: P-S converter blowing, invented in 1905, has been used for over a century and remains the primary copper matte blowing technology worldwide. Advantages include flexible operation and the ability to balance various cold copper-containing materials and externally purchased cold copper using reaction heat. Disadvantages include periodic intermittent operation, large fluctuations in flue gas volume and sulfur content, which are unfavorable for acid-making systems, large flue gas collection volumes, and difficult-to-solve low-altitude SO2 pollution caused by ladle lifting. The drawbacks of P-S converters have prompted metallurgists to seek continuous blowing technologies. ► Flash Blowing: The world's first flash blowing furnace was commissioned at Kennecott Utah Copper in 1995, forming the "double flash" process when paired with flash smelting. Xiangguang Copper was the first in China to introduce "double flash" technology, and the first flash blowing furnace in China was put into operation in 2007. After years of improvement, it developed into vortex flash blowing technology. Currently, there are six flash blowing furnaces in operation in China, five of which are paired with flash smelting, each with a capacity of over 400,000 mt/a, and one paired with bottom-blown smelting, with a capacity of 300,000-400,000 mt/a. Advantages include easy measurement of solid matte, high automation, and high operating rate. Disadvantages include the need for additional grinding equipment for matte and limitations in handling cold materials like anode stubs due to furnace structure and thermal balance. The maximum single-unit designed capacity has reached 500,000 mt/a. Additionally, it provided a detailed introduction to the processes and developments of bottom-blowing and multi-lance top-blowing. 5 Trends in the Copper Smelting Industry Main factors and trends driving global copper smelting development It also reviewed the development policies of China's copper smelting industry and shared interpretations of the main contents of the High-Quality Development Plan for the Copper Industry (2025-2027). 6 Intelligent Development in the Copper Smelting Industry Background of intelligent transformation and upgrading Policy promotion for intelligent transformation and upgrading In March 2021, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) issued the Notice on Accelerating the Digital Transformation of State-Owned Enterprises. In November 2021, the MIIT issued the 14th Five-Year Plan for Deep Integration of Informatization and Industrialization. In April 2020, the MIIT, NDRC, and Ministry of Natural Resources jointly released the Guidelines for the Construction of Smart Factories (Mines) in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (Trial). Among these, the Guidelines for the Construction of Smart Smelting Factories in the Nonferrous Metals Industry, led by China ENFI, provide a top-level design for the intelligent development of the nonferrous metal smelting industry. Overall implementation plan for smart factories Expected effects of smart factory implementation It discussed in detail aspects such as organizational management model reconstruction, innovative digital transformation panoramic view, data assetization, and improvement of technical and economic indicators. For more information, click to view the special report on the CCIE-2025SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo.

On April 24, at the CCIE 2025 SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference & Copper Industry Expo - Secondary Copper Industry Green Development Forum, Zhang Junbing, Director of the Secondary Copper Business Department of Zhejiang Hailiang Co., Ltd., elaborated on the downstream consumption status of secondary copper in China.