Looking ahead, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Supply side, although some suppliers offloaded cargo during the day, the discount did not widen significantly. Going forward, suppliers showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm, with some enterprises controlling the pace of shipments, providing support for spot copper. Available supplies in Jiangsu were tight, further strengthening suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side, on the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, downstream enterprises showed high enthusiasm for resuming operations, procurement sentiment recovered, and support from just-in-time procurement remained. Overall, driven by the combined effect of suppliers holding prices firm and downstream restocking, Shangh

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market remains under pressure. Supply side, although some suppliers offloaded cargo during the day, the discount did not widen significantly. Going forward, suppliers showed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm, with some enterprises controlling the pace of shipments, providing support for spot copper. Available supplies in Jiangsu were tight, further strengthening suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm. Demand side, on the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, downstream enterprises showed high enthusiasm for resuming operations, procurement sentiment recovered, and support from just-in-time procurement remained. Overall, driven by the combined effect of suppliers holding prices firm and downstream restocking, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2604 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.

SMM Analysis: SMM's March 2026 blister copper RC in south China were 1,600-2,000 yuan/mt, averaging 1,800 yuan/mt, down 550 yuan/mt MoM...

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper was closed due to Easter. On the last trading day before the holiday, it closed at $12,348.5/mt, down 0.99%; overnight, SHFE copper was closed due to the Qingming Festival. On the last trading day before the holiday, it closed at 96,250 yuan/mt, up 0.39%.

At the start of this week, the market still repeatedly traded around the Middle East situation, oil prices, and US Fed expectations. As the Iran conflict continued to escalate, crude oil stayed elevated, the US dollar held up well, and copper prices were overall under pressure. Although the market briefly traded expectations that the US might contain further escalation, lifting risk appetite for a short time, Powell said the current policy stance remained appropriate to “wait and see,” and with the war’s disruption to inflation and growth not yet fading, macro sentiment quickly turned cautious again. Overall, the macro theme changed relatively little this week, with geopolitical risks still pushing up oil prices, heightening inflation concerns, and creating phased pressure on copper prices. Fundamentally, the copper market’s own drivers remained mixed between bullish and bearish factors. China’s manufacturing climate in March remained in expansion territory, providing some support to demand expectations. However, recent trading in the LME market still mostly reflected revisions to earlier shortage expectations. In reality, global visible inventory remained high, restraining the upward momentum of copper prices. Meanwhile, the US adjusted the tariff calculation rules for steel, aluminum, and copper derivatives this week. Although this did not change the 50 tariff framework on copper itself, the policy disruption still affected market sentiment and trade flows. Overall, the copper market remained in a pattern of macro pressure and high inventory, while marginal improvement in China’s demand and the logic of tightness on the mine side remained unchanged. Looking ahead to next week, the macro logic is expected to see no significant change. If the Middle East situation does not materially ease, oil prices and the US dollar will still weigh on copper prices, and short-term resistance will remain. However, support will still persist on the fundamental side, and copper prices are expected to continue to move sideways within a range. LME copper is expected to fluctuate at $12,000-12,500/mt, and SHFE copper at 94,000-97,500 yuan/mt. Spot side, China’s inventory drawdown trend is expected to continue, and premiums are expected to keep rising. Spot prices against the SHFE copper front-month contract are expected to range from a discount of 60 yuan/mt to a premium of 50 yuan/mt.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to next week, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain under pressure. Supply side, smelters will maintain normal operations during the Qingming Festival holiday, and domestic spot copper output will continue, while imported copper will arrive successively, making spot cargo in circulation in the post-holiday market more ample. In addition, although some suppliers sold off cargo slightly during the day, with Honglu quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/mt, this did not drive overall spot discounts lower, reflecting that suppliers still have the willingness to hold prices firm at current price levels, with spot discounts receiving some support on the downside. Overall, amid the tug-of-war between expectations of ample supply and suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at a discount after the holiday.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,286.5/mt and fluctuated downward in early trading to a low of $12,212/mt. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center moving up to $12,408/mt, before falling back again to finally close at $12,348.5/mt, down 0.99%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 295,000 lots, an increase of 3,702 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,660 yuan/mt and dipped to 95,300 yuan/mt in early trading. Copper prices then fluctuated upward, with the center moving up to a high of 96,680 yuan/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at 96,150 yuan/mt, down 0.08%. Trading volume reached 36,500 lots, and open interest stood at 181,000 lots, a decrease of 1,608 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bulls reducing positions.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain in the doldrums. Supply side, as the import window has opened, expectations for subsequent inflows of cargo from outside China have strengthened, and some imported cargo circulated in the market during the day, continuously pressuring spot discounts. Meanwhile, according to SMM, some smelters had a need to reduce inventory ahead of the holiday and intended to accelerate the pace of shipments, further increasing circulation pressure in the spot market. Demand side, downstream enterprises still showed limited acceptance of current price levels, with overall procurement still dominated by just-in-time procurement and insufficient willingness to chase higher prices. However, as the Qingming Festival approaches, some downstream enterprises may have pre-holiday stockpiling demand, which could provide some support to the spot market, but is expected to be insufficient to reverse the overall weak supply-demand pattern. Overall, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2604 contract are expected to remain at the current level tomorrow.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,402.6/mt. In early trading, it fluctuated downward to a low of $12,334.5/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices gradually moved higher, rising to $12,482.5/mt near the close, and finally closed at $12,472.6/mt, up 0.73%. Trading volume reached 24,900 lots, and open interest stood at 291,200 lots, down 7,698 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 96,300 yuan/mt. In early trading, it fluctuated downward to 96,210 yuan/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices fluctuated upward, touching a high of 96,970 yuan/mt near the close, with a gain of 0.45%. Trading volume reached 40,900 lots, and open interest stood at 183,400 lots, down 2,869 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to bears reducing positions.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,216/mt and dipped to $12,181.5/mt in early trading. Copper prices then fluctuated upward in center and, near the close, touched a high of $12,420/mt, finally closing at $12,382.5/mt, up 1.64%. Trading volume reached 18,800 lots, and open interest stood at 298,900 lots, an increase of 3,875 lots from the previous trading day. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at 95,730 yuan/mt and fluctuated rangebound in early trading, hitting a low of 95,550 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated upward all the way to a high of 96,780 yuan/mt, finally closing at 96,760 yuan/mt, up 1.26%. Trading volume reached 56,200 lots, and open interest stood at 186,300 lots, an increase of 598 lots from the previous trading day, mainly driven by increased long positions.