SMM Morning Meeting Summary: LME copper was closed overnight. The most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened higher with a gap at 106,300 yuan/mt overnight. Copper prices then quickly shifted their center downward, followed by wild swings during which prices dipped to 105,420 yuan/mt. Near the end of the session, prices fluctuated upward and ultimately closed at 105,780 yuan/mt, up 0.39%. The trading volume reached 26,500 lots, and open interest stood at 181,000 lots, down 1,026 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing their positions.

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 93,030 yuan/mt, dipped to 92,550 yuan/mt in early trading before the center fluctuated upward, touching a high of 94,030 yuan/mt after the day session opened, then the center moved lower, ultimately closing at 93,660 yuan/mt, up 0.68%. Open interest stood at 5,272 lots, down 2,753 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 9,164 lots, up 2,407 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, the US-Iran agreement has not yet been finalised. Trump stated that the deal was largely reached but there was no rush to sign, demanding Iran give up highly enriched uranium. Israel opposed the agreement, preparing for high-intensity operations and demanding the dismantlement of Iran's nuclear facilities. The next round of talks may be held on June 5. Market expectations for a US-Iran deal warmed, exerting a bullish impact on copper prices. Fundamentals side, supply side, arrivals of imported sources remained relatively low, domestic source arrivals edged up, and the tight supply pattern improved marginally. Demand side, consumption was suppressed by rising copper prices, with overall performance remaining weak. Inventory side, as of Monday, May 25, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide increased by 2,300 mt WoW to 245,200 mt, with total inventories up 105,500 mt compared to the same period last year at 139,700 mt. SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 105,520 yuan/mt. Calculated based on the BC copper 2606 contract at 93,660 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 105,836 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2606 contract and BC copper was -316 yuan/mt, showing an inversion that narrowed from the previous day.

SMM May 25 News: Data Brief: As of Monday, May 25, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased by 2,300 mt WoW to 245,200 mt, up 105,500 mt compared to the same period last year (139,700 mt). Specifically, imported sources in Shanghai increased somewhat, though domestic arrivals contracted simultaneously. Combined with copper prices remaining at elevated levels, downstream enterprises showed notably weakened willingness to purchase. Warehouse inflows and outflows over the weekend maintained a steady pace, and regional inventory levels remained largely unchanged. In Jiangsu, influenced by the rising trend in copper prices, downstream procurement demand was generally weak, but local domestic copper arrivals pulled back somewhat, leading to slight destocking in the region. In Guangdong, the end-use consumer market performed sluggishly, becoming the core factor behind continuous inventory accumulation, with inventory levels continuing to climb. Market outlook: Supply side, short-term import arrivals decreased somewhat, while domestic source arrivals increased, gradually easing the overall tight supply situation. Demand side, downstream enterprises generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude amid elevated prices, with market demand remaining soft. According to the survey, the copper cathode rod operating rate is expected to decline to 61.61% this week, down 0.36 percentage points WoW. Considering overall supply-demand performance, supply is marginally loosening while demand remains weak, and social inventory is highly likely to continue its inventory buildup trend in the short term.

The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) released preliminary data on global copper supply and demand for March 2026 in its monthly bulletin published in May 2026. Preliminary data indicated that global copper mine production in Q1 2026 was basically flat, with copper concentrates production declining by 1.1%, offset by a 3.3% increase in solvent extraction-electrodeposition (SX-EW) production. Although global mine production benefited from additional output driven by capacity ramp-up of projects in several countries, significant declines in copper concentrates production in Chile, the DRC, and Indonesia offset global growth. In Indonesia, copper concentrates production at the Grasberg mine fell by 42%, as the severe mud inflow incident that occurred in September last year continued to affect the mine's production. Chile's mine production declined by 5.8%, with increased production at the Collahuasi and Quebrada Blanca mines offset by production cuts at the Spence, El Teniente, Escondida, and Los Pelambres mines. The DRC's mine production is estimated to have grown by only 0.5%: SX-EW production increased by approximately 10%, but was partially offset by a 36% decline in copper concentrates production due to reduced output at the Kamoa mine (affected by the 2025 earthquake event). In Peru, copper mine production grew by 3.3%, primarily driven by increased production at the Antamina, Las Bambas, and Antapaccay mines, which more than offset production declines at Southern Peru Copper, Quellaveco, and Marcobre. Mongolia's copper concentrates production is estimated to have grown by approximately 36%, benefiting from the capacity ramp-up of the Oyu Tolgoi underground project. Preliminary data indicated that global copper cathode production grew by approximately 4.5% in Q1 2026, with primary copper (electrolysis and ore electrodeposition) production increasing by 3.8% and secondary copper (from scrap) production increasing by 7.6%. China and the DRC, which currently account for approximately 60% of global production, saw their combined production increase by an estimated 9% (China 8.8%, DRC 10%). Excluding these two countries, global copper cathode production declined by approximately 1.4%. Chile's copper cathode production fell by 11.7%, with copper cathode (from concentrates) production declining by 24% due to smelter operational constraints and maintenance, and electrodeposition copper production declining by 5.7%. Production in Asia (excluding China) is estimated to have declined by 4%, mainly due to production decreases in Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines. India's production is estimated to have grown by 25%, benefiting from improved capacity utilization rates and the capacity ramp-up of the Adani smelter. Global secondary refined copper production (from scrap) increased by 7.6%, mainly driven by growth in China. Preliminary data indicated that global apparent refined copper usage grew by 0.8% in Q1 2026. Although global usage excluding China was estimated to have grown by 1.7%, China's apparent demand (excluding bonded warehouse/unreported inventory changes) was estimated to be basically flat, affected by a 40% decline in China's net imports of copper cathode. China currently accounts for approximately 58% of total global refined copper usage. The preliminary global refined copper supply-demand balance indicated an oversupply of 396,000 mt in Q1 2026. In compiling the global market balance, ICSG used China's apparent demand calculation method, which does not account for changes in unreported inventories. However, to facilitate global market analysis, an adjustment item has been added to the attached tables — "Global refined copper balance adjusted for Chinese bonded warehouse inventory changes" — which adjusts the global refined copper balance based on the average bonded warehouse inventory change estimates from two Chinese copper market consultancies. In Q1 2026, the global refined copper balance based on China's apparent usage (excluding bonded warehouse/unreported inventory changes) showed a preliminary oversupply of approximately 396,000 mt, compared with an oversupply of approximately 135,000 mt in the same period of 2025. The global refined copper balance adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded warehouse inventories showed a market oversupply of approximately 386,000 mt. Copper Prices and Inventories: Based on the average estimates from two independent consultancies, Chinese bonded warehouse inventories were estimated to have decreased by approximately 10,000 mt from the end of 2025 levels during the first three months of 2026. As of the end of April 2026, copper inventories at major metal exchanges (LME, COMEX, SHFE) totaled 1,148,760 mt, the highest level since January 2003. Inventories increased by 404,648 mt, or 55%, from the end of December 2025, with LME up 253,350 mt, Shanghai Futures Exchange up 46,683 mt, and COMEX up 104,615 mt. The LME spot copper average price in April was $12,891.38 per mt, up 3% from the March average price of $12,498.98 per mt. The 2026 copper price high and low were $14,097 per mt (May 13) and $11,826 per mt (March 19), respectively, with a year-to-date average price of $12,947.22 per mt, up 30% from the 2025 average price. Global Refined Copper Supply and Demand Trends Notes: 1/ Refers to apparent usage 2/ Refined copper balance = production - usage 3/ Seasonally adjusted balance data 4/ Global refined copper balance adjusted for estimated changes in Chinese bonded warehouse inventories (Wenhua Composite)

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,508/mt, dipped to $13,454.5/mt early in the session, then the price center gradually shifted upward, reaching $13,620/mt near the end of the session, and finally closed at $13,610/mt, down 0.33%, with trading volume at 17,000 lots and open interest at 273,000 lots, an increase of 143 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,000 yuan/mt, touched a low of 103,620 yuan/mt right after the opening, then the price center edged up with small fluctuations and reached a high of 104,250 yuan/mt, finally moving sideways to close at 104,100 yuan/mt, up 0.06%, with trading volume at 34,000 lots and open interest at 162,000 lots, an increase of 1,224 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 92,150 yuan/mt. In the early session, the copper price center gradually shifted upward. After the daytime session opened, prices continued to fluctuate upward, reaching 93,470 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward, touching a low of 92,030 yuan/mt near the close, and ultimately settled at 92,100 yuan/mt, up 0.34%. Open interest stood at 8,580 lots, down 501 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 8,190 lots, indicating bears reducing positions. Macro perspective, US-Iran negotiations approached final progress, with the market anticipating both sides may reach a ceasefire consensus. Combined with oil tankers passing smoothly through the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical tensions eased significantly, market risk appetite recovered, and a weaker US dollar provided upward support for copper prices. Fundamentals side, market supply circulation remained tight, with insufficient arrivals of both domestic and imported copper, leading to overall tight supply. However, high copper prices suppressed downstream purchasing enthusiasm, with the market mainly engaging in rigid restocking needs. Overall market trading atmosphere was mediocre, and demand-side recovery remained weak. Inventory side, as of Thursday, May 21, SMM copper inventories in major regions nationwide increased 500 mt WoW to 243,800 mt, up 103,900 mt compared to the same period last year (139,900 mt). SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 103,940 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2606 contract at 92,100 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 104,073 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2606 and BC copper was -133, maintaining an inverted spread that widened from the previous day.

【SMM Copper Inventories】 Social inventory of copper cathode in China's major regions saw a slight inventory buildup, with overall fluctuations remaining limited. Regional divergence was evident, with Shanghai inventory steadily destocking while inventories in most other regions edged up, and overall arrivals of supply were relatively low. High copper prices suppressed market purchasing sentiment, downstream trading was sluggish, and end-use demand remained generally weak.

SMM May 21 News: Data Brief: As of Thursday, May 21, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions nationwide increased by 500 mt WoW to 243,800 mt, up 103,900 mt compared to the same period last year (139,900 mt). Specifically, arrivals of both imported copper and domestic copper in Shanghai were relatively low, and elevated copper prices dampened downstream trading activity, making transactions sluggish. Tight supply drove a slight inventory drawdown. In Jiangsu, inventory changes within the week were relatively small, with a steady pace of inflows and outflows, resulting in only a slight inventory buildup. In Guangdong, domestic copper arrivals increased notably, while high copper prices suppressed enterprise production and procurement, and end-use demand remained weak, leading to continued inventory buildup in the region. Looking ahead, supply side, imported copper arrivals are expected to remain low in the short term, and domestic copper supply will also stay at low levels. Demand side, persistently high copper prices continue to dampen downstream stocking enthusiasm, with overall market demand remaining weak. The current market presents a pattern of tight supply and lackluster demand, and China's copper social inventory is expected to continue its inventory buildup trend next week.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,477/mt, dipped to a low of $13,436/mt in early trading, then the price center gradually shifted upward to reach $13,625/mt, and finally moved sideways at high levels to close at $13,590/mt, up 0.34%, with trading volume at 24,000 lots and open interest at 283,000 lots, an increase of 2,099 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 104,480 yuan/mt, touched a high of 104,840 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center shifted slightly lower to a low of 104,440 yuan/mt, and finally moved sideways to close at 104,590 yuan/mt, up 0.28%, with trading volume at 30,000 lots and open interest at 154,000 lots, a decrease of 3,110 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions.

Today, the most-traded BC copper contract 2606 opened at 92,280 yuan/mt, fluctuated upward to probe 92,850 yuan/mt in early trading, then moved sideways. During the day session, it opened lower with a gap to touch a low of 91,550 yuan/mt, after which the copper price center gradually shifted upward, ultimately closing at 92,400 yuan/mt, down 1.7%. Open interest stood at 9,388 lots, down 44 lots from the previous trading day, with trading volume at 7,146 lots, indicating bulls reducing positions. Macro perspective, US inflation data rebounded while Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions pushed up international oil prices, intensifying market concerns over rising inflation. Rate hike expectations within the year strengthened again, overall bearish for copper prices. Meanwhile, rising US Treasury yields drove the US dollar to continue strengthening, further suppressing upside room for copper prices. Fundamentals side, on the supply end, imported copper arrivals were relatively low, while domestic spot cargo sources saw some increase. Demand side, as copper prices pulled back, downstream enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm recovered, with marginal improvement in actual market transaction demand. Inventory side, as of Monday, May 18, SMM copper inventories in major regions across China decreased 400 mt WoW to 242,900 mt, with total inventory up 103,700 mt compared to the same period last year from 139,200 mt. SHFE copper 2606 contract closed at 104,330 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2606 contract at 92,400 yuan/mt, its after-tax price was 104,412 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2606 contract and BC copper was -82, maintaining an inversion, and narrowed notably from the previous day.