On March 13, 2026, China's copper smelting industry set a new historical record. According to SMM data, the imported copper concentrate index closed at -60.39 USD/dmt, officially breaking through the -60 USD level.

[SMM Analysis: Key Anchor in Great Power Rivalry: The U.S. "Project Vault" and the Changing Resource Landscape in Latin America] Amid the current accelerated reshaping of the global resource competition landscape, China's copper concentrate import pattern is undergoing a profound structural transformation. The latest trade data from 2025 clearly outlines this trend: China is significantly enhancing its capacity to acquire copper concentrate resources from neighboring countries.

[SMM Analysis:April China's Copper Concentrate Imports: Unexpected Yet Reasonable ] In April 2025, China's imports of copper concentrates reached a record 2.9244 million tons, up 22.16% month-on-month, 24.55% year-on-year, and 7.46% year-on-year cumulatively. It is not difficult to observe that from the end of 2024 to the first half of 2025, many copper smelters in China commenced operations, releasing rough smelting capacity. The surge in copper concentrate imports driven by the sharp increase in demand was reasonable, but such a high import volume was still unexpected. Let's specifically analyze the main sources of this high-level copper concentrate imports.

[SMM Analysis: China's Copper Concentrates Imports in April: Unexpected Yet Reasonable] In April 2025, China's copper concentrates imports reached a record high of 2.9244 million mt, up 22.16% MoM, up 24.55% YoY, and up 7.46% on a cumulative YoY basis. It is not difficult to observe that from year-end 2024 to H1 2025, many copper smelters in China commenced operations, releasing smelting capacity. The surge in copper concentrates imports, driven by a significant increase in demand for copper concentrates, was reasonable. However, the unexpectedly high import value of copper concentrates came as a surprise. We attribute the high volume of copper concentrates imports to the following factors.

Recently, the copper market has shown stability, with copper prices continuing to fluctuate rangebound near the 5-day moving average.

On the macro front, substantive progress was made in the economic and trade talks between China and the US held in Geneva. Both sides issued a joint statement announcing that they would synchronously adjust the hefty tariffs recently imposed on each other's goods before May 14, 2025. The US will suspend for 90 days the implementation of the planned 24% ad valorem tariff increase on Chinese goods, retaining the remaining 10% tariff, while canceling the further tariff increases on Chinese goods outlined in two executive orders issued on April 8 and 9 (the cumulative tariff had already reached 125%). China has responded in kind by suspending the 24% tariff increase on US goods, retaining the 10% tariff, and canceling other non-tariff countermeasures. Overall, both sides have sent a clear signal of easing economic and trade frictions and buying time and space for negotiations. Meanwhile, other global economies are also accelerating adjustments to their trade policies in response to the US-led trade reshaping at the geopolitical level. The India-Pakistan conflict has eased, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is also showing signs of peace. On the whole, major economies are demonstrating a certain willingness to coordinate on multilateral issues, and the geopolitical situation is showing a slowdown trend. On the fundamental front, due to the release of copper concentrates from Grasberg, copper concentrate imports in April hit a record high, and inventory buildup at ports increased significantly. However, in the long term, the tight supply situation remains unchanged, and spot transactions of copper concentrates have been sluggish in the short term. After the delivery of the SHFE copper 2405 contract, spot premiums started at 400 yuan/mt, putting pressure on downstream enterprises' purchase willingness. Due to the easing of tariff conflicts, the number of vessel bookings on the US West Coast route has increased significantly, and whether end-use consumption can be transmitted upstream has become a core concern in May. Looking ahead to next week, the current macro sentiment is mixed with bullish and bearish factors. After recovering from previous losses, LME copper is fluctuating rangebound. Expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate cut by the US Fed in June have increased, and it is anticipated that the US dollar index's rebound will put downward pressure on copper prices. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $9,250-9,550/mt next week, while SHFE copper is expected to fluctuate between 76,500-78,000 yuan/mt. On the spot front, the release of warrants after the delivery of the SHFE copper 2505 contract and the concentrated arrivals of imported copper will impact spot premiums. Given the still significant price spread between futures contracts for the SHFE copper 2506 and 2507 contracts, it is expected that spot premiums will gradually converge towards parity. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2506 contract are expected to range from a premium of 250-450 yuan/mt.

[Copper] On Friday, SHFE copper closed lower amid sideways movement, with accelerated position reduction in the delivery month. Today, spot copper prices fell to 78,205 yuan. The premium for Shanghai copper rapidly pulled back to 80 yuan, while the premium in Guangdong dropped to 155 yuan. In April, the highlight of domestic and overseas trade exports remained in ASEAN, where production maintained strong momentum during the reciprocal tariff exemption period. In the first four months, domestic imports of unwrought copper reached 1.742 million mt, down 3.9% year-on-year. Despite extremely low processing fees, copper concentrate imports remained stable, with a cumulative increase of 7.8% in the first four months. Consider shorting the SHFE 2507 contract or participating in calendar spreads between near-month contracts amid the rebound. [Aluminum and Alumina] Today, SHFE aluminum fluctuated rangebound, with spot aluminum in east China trading on par with futures, while spot aluminum in south China traded at a discount of 45 yuan. Yesterday, social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum billets in east China fell by 16,000 mt and 9,000 mt, respectively, compared to Monday, with total inventory remaining at the lowest level for the same period in recent years. Amid the shadow of trade wars, demand faces seasonal weakness and pressure from trade frictions. SHFE aluminum faces strong resistance in the 20,000-20,300 yuan range, corresponding to the upside gap. However, since the beginning of the year, aluminum market demand has exceeded expectations. Monitor inventory and spot feedback after price pullbacks, and maintain a cautiously bearish stance without excessive pessimism. Recently, the capacity under maintenance and production cuts in the alumina sector has continued to rise, leading to a temporary reduction in production and a decline in industry inventory. However, once profits recover, capacity will resume on a large scale, and new capacities in Shandong and Hebei will gradually produce finished products. The transaction price of Guinea bauxite at the cost side has fallen from $110 at the beginning of the year to $75, with the average cost of alumina dropping to around 2,900 yuan. This week, spot alumina transactions have slightly increased. In the short term, the rebound height of the futures market will be limited by the surplus outlook and cost collapse. Consider shorting on rallies when futures trade at a premium. [Zinc] The spot import window for zinc has opened, and with the gradual supplementation of overseas zinc elements, domestic zinc ingot supply is unlikely to be tight. Progress in Sino-US tariff negotiations has been sluggish, keeping demand under pressure. The domestic peak season has ended, and the probability of simultaneous weakness in domestic and overseas demand is high. As consumption trickles down, maintain short positions in SHFE zinc from previous highs. [Lead] Profits at secondary smelters are poor, leading to reduced production. Primary smelters in north and south China have enterprises planning maintenance, supporting lead prices. The tight supply of raw materials remains unchanged, with secondary lead operating at a loss and insufficient enthusiasm for raising prices to purchase. Scrap battery suppliers are unwilling to sell at low prices, keeping scrap battery prices stable. Downstream purchase willingness is mediocre. SMM 1# lead is trading at a discount of 110 yuan/mt to near-month futures, with a price difference between primary metal and scrap of 25 yuan/mt. The import window remains closed, and the tug-of-war between costs and consumption continues. Temporarily, view SHFE lead as fluctuating rangebound in the 16,300-17,000 yuan/mt range. [Nickel and Stainless Steel] SHFE nickel fluctuated rangebound, with mediocre market trading activity.On the spot market, the premium for Jinchuan nickel fell to 2,250 yuan, the premium for imported nickel was 100 yuan, and electrodeposited nickel traded at a discount of 50 yuan. Supply side, the shipment volume of nickel ore from the Philippines increased significantly compared to earlier periods, replenishing smelters' nickel ore inventory. NPI prices continued to decline, with domestic acceptance of high-priced nickel ore decreasing. The impact of Indonesia's new policy on costs may gradually be absorbed by the market. The quoted price for high-grade nickel pig iron (NPI) stood at 962 yuan per mtu, having fallen by nearly 7% over the past month. In terms of inventory, nickel pig iron inventory increased by 4,200 mt to 28,400 mt, refined nickel inventory decreased by 560 mt to 44,000 mt, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 10,000 mt to 975,000 mt. SHFE nickel is at the tail end of another rebound, with bears gradually gaining strength. [Tin] The weighted average of SHFE tin continued to oscillate above 260,000 yuan and the 250-day moving average (MA250). Currently, there is a tight supply of tin concentrate raw materials. Domestic refined tin output fell MoM in April, with a particularly large YoY decline. However, both supply and demand in the tin market are weak, primarily supporting domestic spot prices. Today, SMM tin was quoted at 262,200 yuan, with a real-time premium of 770 yuan over the delivery month. It is expected that tin prices will mainly complete a right-shoulder oscillation pattern in May, with significant resistance above. Short positions can be held against 265,000 yuan. (Source: Guotou Junan Futures)

On the macro front, the US April non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate remained stable, temporarily alleviating recession fears. However, the Q1 GDP contraction of 0.3% on an annualized basis revealed a decline in endogenous growth momentum. Coupled with potential retaliatory tariff threats, the risk of economic stagnation has risen. Although the US Fed has paused interest rate hikes three times in a row, Powell's statements have kept the door open for interest rate cuts and reiterated policy independence. While this has soothed the market, it cannot conceal the pressure of sticky inflation on real interest rates. China, on the other hand, has preemptively launched unexpected easing measures, including RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, and reductions in housing provident fund rates, completing policy hedging before the US Fed's interest rate decision. It has clearly shifted its monetary policy objectives towards "stabilizing growth + promoting price rebound", directly stimulating infrastructure/real estate chains and new energy capacity. Copper futures have been caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears during the week: macroeconomic recession risks are pitted against tight fundamentals. LME copper fluctuated between $9,350-9,550/mt, while the most-traded SHFE copper contract fluctuated rangebound between 77,000-78,000 yuan/mt. On the fundamental front, copper cathode imports in April declined MoM from March, but copper concentrate imports exceeded historical highs. During the Labour Day holiday, domestic copper cathode inventories fell instead of rising. The backwardation structure of the nearby SHFE copper contract widened by more than 600 yuan/mt at the end of the week, sparking market concerns about structural risks. Spot premiums rapidly fell from 300 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to near parity, with market trading shifting more towards deferred contracts. The sustainability of downstream enterprise consumption currently appears weak. After entering May, the operating rate has shown a downward trend. While orders on hand continue to be depleted, growth in new orders remains limited. However, the structural issue of tight raw material supply at the upstream end remains difficult to alleviate in the short term. Looking ahead to next week, the US and the UK have initially reached a consensus on tariff issues. It is necessary to monitor new developments in tariff and trade issues between China and the US after their talks in Europe. Whether macroeconomic tensions ease will bring significant uncertainty to subsequent copper price fluctuations. It is expected that LME copper will fluctuate between $9,350-9,600/mt next week, while SHFE copper will fluctuate between 77,000-78,500 yuan/mt. On the spot front, under a high backwardation structure, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2505 contract have fallen to near parity. It is expected that the backwardation structure will still widen on the last trading day of the 2505 contract. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2505 contract are expected to range from a discount of 200 yuan/mt to parity. After the contract rollover, it is expected to range from a premium of 300-500 yuan/mt against the SHFE copper 2506 contract.

On April 23, at the CCIE-2025SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo - Main Forum, hosted by SMM Information & Technology Co., Ltd., SMM Metal Trading Center, and Shandong Aisi Information Technology Co., Ltd., with Jiangxi Copper Corporation and Yingtan Land Port Holding Co., Ltd. as main sponsors, and Shandong Humon Smelting Co., Ltd. as a special co-organizer, Xinhuang Group and Zhongtiao Mountain Nonferrous Metals Group Co., Ltd. as co-organizers, Wang Jianlong, Deputy Director of Metallurgy Department One of China ENFI Engineering & Technology Co., Ltd., shared insights on the global copper smelting landscape and intelligent development. Ben Knoefler, Chairman of the Board of KCI Group, analyzed the global copper market for 2025. 1 Global Copper Resource Distribution Overall, the world's copper resources are relatively abundant, with an estimated 31 billion tons of land-based copper resources and 7 billion tons in deep-sea nodules. Natural copper minerals include native copper, oxides, and sulfides. The world's proven copper reserves are about 10 billion tons, and based on current mine production, the static assurance period for mining is approximately 45 years. In terms of regional distribution, the main areas with concentrated copper ore resources globally are: (1) The western foothills of the Andes in Peru and Chile, South America; (2) The Cordillera region in the western part of the North American continent, mainly in the US and Mexico; (3) Central Africa, particularly in the DRC and Zambia; (4) Central Asia, mainly Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and Russia; (5) Australia. The top five countries in terms of copper ore reserves are Chile, Peru, Australia, Russia, and the DRC, accounting for about 57% of the total. 2 Global Refined Copper Consumption Global copper consumption is mainly concentrated in two types of countries or regions. One type is traditional developed Western countries, where copper consumption is relatively stable. The other type is developing countries and regions experiencing rapid economic growth, which have higher copper consumption growth rates and are key factors in global copper consumption growth. According to ICSG statistics, global refined copper consumption in 2024 was 28.577 million mt, up 5.79% YoY. The growth in global refined copper consumption is mainly supported by strong apparent demand in China. The main areas of global copper consumption are power grids, construction, consumer goods, transportation, and engineering machinery, accounting for 28%, 27%, 22%, 12%, and 11% respectively. As a basic raw material, changes in copper consumption are closely related to global economic development. In recent years, consumption of copper plate/sheet and strip in traditional fields and copper foil for circuit boards has been relatively weak, while copper use in the power and new energy sectors has performed well. 3 Global Refined Copper Production and Capacity Distribution Global refined copper production in 2024 was 28.0228 million mt, up 4.07% YoY. The increase in refined copper production is mainly due to capacity expansion in China and the DRC, while production in other regions decreased by about 1%. As the largest consumer and producer of refined copper, China does not have a significant advantage in copper ore resources and needs to import large amounts of copper concentrates. China's refined copper production and copper concentrate imports In 2024, China's refined copper production was 13.644 million mt, and copper concentrate imports were 28.11 million mt. To address the current state of the copper smelting industry, relevant national departments are promoting the healthy and orderly development of the copper smelting industry through industrial policies, environmental protection policies, and other measures. In general, on the supply side, efforts are being made to deepen supply-side structural reforms, strictly control the disorderly expansion of copper smelting capacity, and accelerate intelligent and green transformation. On the demand side, enterprises are being guided to accelerate technological progress, overcome the shortcomings of copper-based new materials, and fully tap the potential applications of copper in new infrastructure and construction projects. Major Chinese Copper Smelters According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 40 copper smelters (production lines) nationwide, with four groups having a capacity of over 1 million mt/a. 4 Global Copper Smelting Processes and Their Development Copper Smelting Processes Pyrometallurgy (80%): Impurities are removed as slag at high temperatures, resulting in copper anode, which is then electrolyzed to produce refined copper. Traditional matte smelting, the main process for copper smelting, is suitable for sulfide ores. One-step copper smelting, with limited industrial application, is suitable for sulfide ores under special raw material conditions. Hydrometallurgy (20%): Copper is enriched in solution through leaching and extraction processes, followed by electrodeposition to produce refined copper. • Leach-extraction-electrodeposition, suitable for oxide ores, especially for large-scale processing of low-grade oxide ores. • Roast-leach-extraction-electrodeposition, suitable for sulfide ores, mixed ores, and copper-cobalt ores. • Oxygen pressure leach-extraction-electrodeposition, suitable for sulfide ores, mixed ores, and copper-cobalt ores. Copper Pyrometallurgical Process Flow It also elaborated on the hydrometallurgical process flow of copper, including roasting, leaching, extraction, and electrodeposition. Several Main Matte Smelting Processes and Their Development ► Flash Smelting: Flash smelting technology includes Outokumpu flash smelting and INCO flash smelting, with Outokumpu technology being widely applied. China began introducing flash smelting technology in the 1980s. Xiangguang Copper innovated boldly based on flash smelting technology, inventing the vortex flash smelting technology, which received a national invention patent. Advantages include high capacity, high automation, and longer furnace life; disadvantages include high investment, complex feed preparation system, poor adaptability to high-impurity raw materials, and the need to reduce costs through scale effects. Recent developments include: high oxygen (even pure oxygen) smelting, further expansion of single-furnace capacity (500,000 mt/a), continuous innovation and improvement of process equipment, and gradual localization. ► Top-Blown Smelting: Top-blown smelting technology, including Ausmelt smelting and ISA smelting, was introduced to China in the 1990s. Characteristics of top-blown smelting technology include using a submerged lance to blow air and oxygen into the melt pool, providing strong stirring and good reaction kinetics, and high production efficiency. Disadvantages include the need to add fuel, inability to separate slag and copper in the furnace, requiring a settling electric furnace, high comprehensive energy consumption, low utilization of oxygen and fuel, and short furnace life. Recent developments include: increasing oxygen concentration, improving matte grade, raising smelting temperature, and continuously extending lance and furnace life. ► Bottom-Blown Smelting: Bottom-blown smelting is a new copper smelting technology with independent intellectual property rights from China ENFI. It was first industrially applied in Vietnam in 2002, and the first bottom-blown copper smelting production line in China was put into operation in 2008. Advantages include simple feed preparation, low furnace investment, high oxygen utilization, and strong adaptability to raw materials, capable of handling high-impurity raw materials. Disadvantages include high copper content in slag and low direct recovery rate. Developments include: further expansion of single-furnace processing capacity (1.8 million mt/a of concentrate); as a representative technology for matte gold capture, it has low requirements for copper content in concentrate and has been applied in complex gold concentrate processing at Shandong Humon, Central China Gold, and Guotou Jincheng. Zhongjin Lingnan Copper Co., Ltd. (formerly Dongying Fangyuan) developed the "Zhongjin Method" for two-step copper smelting based on bottom-blown smelting. China ENFI and Baotou Huading Copper Industry developed the full bottom-blow three-furnace process based on bottom-blown smelting and continuous bottom-blowing. ► Side-Blown Smelting: Based on Vanyukov smelting technology, China developed and applied oxygen-enriched double side-blowing smelting technology in 2009, which has rapidly developed in recent years. Characteristics of side-blown smelting technology include blowing air and oxygen into the melt pool through tuyeres on both sides of the furnace, improving mass and heat transfer conditions, with low blowing pressure, low copper content in slag, and relatively simple operation. Disadvantages include the need for manual opening and plugging of tuyeres and the need to add coal (mainly to inhibit magnetic iron in slag). Recent developments: Rapidly achieved a leap from 100,000 mt capacity to 400,000 mt capacity, with the maximum bed area reaching 70 square meters. ► P-S Converter Blowing: P-S converter blowing, invented in 1905, has been used for over a century and remains the primary copper matte blowing technology worldwide. Advantages include flexible operation and the ability to balance various cold copper-containing materials and externally purchased cold copper using reaction heat. Disadvantages include periodic intermittent operation, large fluctuations in flue gas volume and sulfur content, which are unfavorable for acid-making systems, large flue gas collection volumes, and difficult-to-solve low-altitude SO2 pollution caused by ladle lifting. The drawbacks of P-S converters have prompted metallurgists to seek continuous blowing technologies. ► Flash Blowing: The world's first flash blowing furnace was commissioned at Kennecott Utah Copper in 1995, forming the "double flash" process when paired with flash smelting. Xiangguang Copper was the first in China to introduce "double flash" technology, and the first flash blowing furnace in China was put into operation in 2007. After years of improvement, it developed into vortex flash blowing technology. Currently, there are six flash blowing furnaces in operation in China, five of which are paired with flash smelting, each with a capacity of over 400,000 mt/a, and one paired with bottom-blown smelting, with a capacity of 300,000-400,000 mt/a. Advantages include easy measurement of solid matte, high automation, and high operating rate. Disadvantages include the need for additional grinding equipment for matte and limitations in handling cold materials like anode stubs due to furnace structure and thermal balance. The maximum single-unit designed capacity has reached 500,000 mt/a. Additionally, it provided a detailed introduction to the processes and developments of bottom-blowing and multi-lance top-blowing. 5 Trends in the Copper Smelting Industry Main factors and trends driving global copper smelting development It also reviewed the development policies of China's copper smelting industry and shared interpretations of the main contents of the High-Quality Development Plan for the Copper Industry (2025-2027). 6 Intelligent Development in the Copper Smelting Industry Background of intelligent transformation and upgrading Policy promotion for intelligent transformation and upgrading In March 2021, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) issued the Notice on Accelerating the Digital Transformation of State-Owned Enterprises. In November 2021, the MIIT issued the 14th Five-Year Plan for Deep Integration of Informatization and Industrialization. In April 2020, the MIIT, NDRC, and Ministry of Natural Resources jointly released the Guidelines for the Construction of Smart Factories (Mines) in the Nonferrous Metals Industry (Trial). Among these, the Guidelines for the Construction of Smart Smelting Factories in the Nonferrous Metals Industry, led by China ENFI, provide a top-level design for the intelligent development of the nonferrous metal smelting industry. Overall implementation plan for smart factories Expected effects of smart factory implementation It discussed in detail aspects such as organizational management model reconstruction, innovative digital transformation panoramic view, data assetization, and improvement of technical and economic indicators. For more information, click to view the special report on the CCIE-2025SMM (20th) Copper Industry Conference and Copper Industry Expo.