July copper cathode production was recorded at 1.1268 million mt, down 1.59% MoM.

July SMM Copper Cathode Production...

On July 30, the Kazakh government announced that it had approved the investment agreement signed between the Ministry of Industry and Construction and Qazaq Smelter LLP for the Balkhash copper smelter project. The total private investment for the project is 750 billion tenge (approximately $1.58 billion). Construction is planned to start in 2027, with production commencing in 2030. The project is designed to produce 300,000 mt of copper cathode, 10 mt of gold, 300 mt of silver, and over 1.5 million mt of sulphuric acid annually, and will create around 1,200 permanent jobs. The Kazakh government expects that, once commissioned, the project will boost the country’s copper production by about 50% to above 800,000 mt, and increase exports of high-value-added copper products from 460,000 mt to 760,000 mt. Currently, the project is still at the stage of having its investment agreement approved, and the authorities have not yet disclosed its source of copper concentrates, process route, financing, or EPC arrangements. In addition, KAZ Minerals also plans to build another 300,000 mt/year copper smelter in the Abai Region, with a latest commissioning target of 2030–2031. If both projects proceed as planned, the combined new nominal copper cathode capacity in Kazakhstan will reach 600,000 mt/year, and the capacity for domestic smelting of copper concentrates may see a notable increase.

On July 31, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) was reported at -$159.37/dmt, down $4.61/dmt from the previous -$154.76/dmt. In July, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (monthly) was -$148.28/dmt, down $26.84/dmt from June's -$121.44/dmt. The payable indicator for 20%-grade domestic ore was reported at 98.5%-99.5%, up 0.25% from the prior period. This week, the copper concentrates spot market saw more index-based deals, with some mines conducting tenders. In terms of spot deals, there were five index-deducted transactions this week, two of which used only the SMM index as a benchmark. A trader sold 10,000 mt of clean ore at the SMM index minus $20/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 10,000 mt of Sierra Gorda at the index minus $23/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5; a trader sold 10,000 mt of South American clean ore at the SMM and FM index flat minus $20/dmt to a smelter for September shipment, QP: M+1/M+5. There were market rumors that a trader sold 20,000 mt of Q4 clean ore at the index minus $20 to a smelter, of which 10,000 mt of Carmen ore with silver at 20g was priced at 90%. Also, rumors that a trader sold 20,000-30,000 mt of Q4 cargoes at the index minus $25/dmt. In terms of mine tenders, the results of a large mine's tender were out, with market rumors that 20,000 mt of HVC was traded on the smelter side at -$220/dmt for September-October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option); 20,000 mt of HVC was traded on the trader side at around -$275/dmt for September-October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option); additionally, 10,000 mt of QB was traded on the trader side at prices ranging from -$275/dmt to -$280/dmt for October shipment, QP: M+0/M+4 (buyer's option). Furthermore, 10,000 mt of BISHA and around 2,000 mt of Black Mountain for September-October shipment were tendered, with the results currently unknown. Overall, this week's spot deals continued to be mainly in the index-minus format, with deductions remaining at deep levels; mine tender prices fell further. Smelters maintained restocking demand but remained relatively limited in accepting deeply negative-priced cargoes. On July 29, First Quantum Minerals said it was accelerating preparations to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine in Panama, having already begun processing stockpiled ore in advance and added around 1,000 jobs. The company stated that formal negotiations with the Panamanian government over the future arrangements of the mine are gradually approaching. In May this year, the company started the first of three grinding lines, processing approximately 2.1 million mt of stockpiled ore in Q2 and producing 3,216 mt of copper concentrates. Cobre Panama currently has about 38 million mt of stockpiled ore, expected to recover approximately 70,000 mt of copper, supporting about 12 months of production at the current processing pace. The company maintained its 2026 copper production guidance of 30,000 to 40,000 mt, all from stockpiled ore processing. Meanwhile, the number of mine employees increased from about 2,350 in early April to approximately 3,000 at end-June, to support equipment commissioning, maintenance, and operational preparations. Over half of the new hires came from communities near the mine site, with female employees accounting for about 17% of new recruits. Currently, the Panamanian government is studying various options for restarting the mine, including establishing a state-owned mining company to jointly operate the mine with First Quantum, or a model where First Quantum holds a 60% to 65% interest and the government holds the remainder. The company had previously suspended the $20 billion international arbitration against the Panamanian government, creating conditions for continued negotiations between the two parties. On July 29, Glencore released its H1 2026 production report, showing that its own-sourced copper production in H1 was 397,000 mt, up 15% YoY from 343,900 mt. The production growth was mainly driven by increased mined volumes and improved feed grades in African copper operations, along with higher grades at the Antamina copper mine in Peru, partially offset by the planned closure of the Mount Isa copper mine in Australia in July 2025. Glencore maintained its 2026 own-sourced copper production guidance of 810,000 to 870,000 mt, with approximately 53% of annual copper production expected to be released in H2. The company stated that ore recovery rates and mining performance at the Collahuasi copper mine are expected to improve in H2, supporting a QoQ increase in copper production. Furthermore, although Glencore completed the sale of the Kidd Mine on June 1, reducing annual copper production by about 11,000 mt, the company has not lowered its full-year guidance. On July 28, Rio Tinto announced its H1 2026 results, with underlying earnings reaching $6.85 billion, up 43% YoY, the highest level for the same period in nearly four years. Within this, the copper and aluminum businesses, driven by demand from electrification, artificial intelligence, and the energy transition, together contributed about 56% of profit, surpassing the iron ore business for the first time to become the company's primary earnings driver. By business, copper EBITDA surged 84% YoY to $5.7 billion; iron ore EBITDA was $6.8 billion, down 1% YoY. The company stated that copper production growth and improved production efficiency in H1 were key drivers of earnings growth, while also benefiting from higher copper prices. As of July 31, 2026, SMM 11-port copper concentrates inventory stood at 664,400 mt in physical content, up 2,900 mt in physical content from July 24. The increases mainly came from Jinzhou Port and Qingdao Port, up 30,000 mt and 10,000 mt WoW, respectively; the decreases mainly came from Nanjing Port and Qinzhou Port, down 10,000 mt and 19,000 mt WoW, respectively. Overall inventory was basically flat.

At around 15:30 on July 26, a safety incident occurred during production and construction at the underground Area 3 of Yinman Mining, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Xingye Silver&Tin, resulting in one fatality and no other injuries. On July 28, Xingye Silver&Tin announced for the first time that the underground mining areas of Yinman Mining had been suspended, while the beneficiation plant remained in normal operation. At that time, Yinman Mining had approximately 350,000 mt of surface ore, which was expected to support the beneficiation plant's production for about two and a half months. On July 30, Yinman Mining further received an "On-site Disposition Decision" (Xi) Yingji Xianjue [2026] No. 260 issued by the Xiwu Banner Emergency Management Bureau, requiring the simultaneous suspension of the beneficiation and tailings systems. As of the announcement disclosure, Yinman Mining's mining system, beneficiation and tailings systems had all been suspended. The previous plan to sustain beneficiation production using ore inventory could no longer be implemented, directly impacting mineral product production. Yinman Mining has an existing mining and beneficiation capacity of 1.65 million mt per year and is the core tin-silver mine under Xingye Silver&Tin. Xingye Silver&Tin did not separately disclose Yinman Mining's actual copper metal production in 2025. According to the original project design, Yinman Mining's copper concentrates contain approximately 1,100 mt of copper metal per year; Xingye Silver&Tin's consolidated mine-produced copper output in 2025 was 2,380.89 mt. As Yinman Mining's copper production scale is relatively small, this suspension will have limited impact on China's overall supply of copper concentrates, with the impact expected to be mainly concentrated on products such as tin and silver. Going forward, attention needs to be paid to the progress of accident investigation, tailings system rectification, and production resumption acceptance.

First Quantum Minerals is accelerating preparations to restart the Cobre Panama copper mine by commencing stockpile processing ahead of schedule and expanding its workforce by approximately 1,000 employees. The company said formal negotiations with the Panamanian government over the mine's future are drawing closer. The first of three milling circuits began operating in May, processing approximately 2.1 million tonnes of stockpiled ore during the second quarter and producing 3,216 tonnes of copper concentrate. The mine currently holds an estimated 38 million tonnes of stockpiled ore containing around 70,000 tonnes of recoverable copper, sufficient to support roughly 12 months of processing at current rates. First Quantum maintained its 2026 production guidance of 30,000–40,000 tonnes of copper from stockpile processing. The site's workforce increased from approximately 2,350 employees in early April to around 3,000 by the end of June to support commissioning, maintenance and operational readiness. Meanwhile, Panama continues to evaluate several partnership structures for reopening the mine, while First Quantum has suspended its US$20 billion arbitration claim as discussions with the government continue.

Global primary copper supply is projected to face a 25% deficit by 2035 under current policy settings despite record-high prices, as new project development fails to keep pace with demand, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA highlighted declining ore grades as a core structural headwind, noting that average copper ore grades worldwide have dropped by 40% since 1991. This depletion has significantly increased project complexity and capital expenditure. Capital intensity for brownfield expansions has escalated by 65% since 2020, approaching levels historically associated with new greenfield developments. Concurrently, greenfield discoveries have slowed dramatically, with only 5% of all copper deposits identified over the past 35 years discovered within the last decade. In the near term, project delays, cost overruns, and mine disruptions continue to tighten the copper concentrate market. Furthermore, limited availability of sulfuric acid has emerged as a key operational risk for solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) cathode production, compounding immediate supply constraints across global operations.

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In February 2000, the Company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange under the stock name “Tin Industry Co., Ltd.” and stock code 000960. The Company has been ranked on the Fortune China 500 for consecutive years, placing 1st among the 2023 Yunnan High-Tech Enterprises Top 100 and 2nd among the 2023 Yunnan Manufacturing Enterprises Top 100. The Company holds the world’s largest reserves of tin and indium resources, and operates China’s largest tin production and processing base. It has built up a capacity of 80,000 mt/year of tin smelting, 125,000 mt/year of cathode copper, 100,000 mt/year of zinc smelting, and 60 mt/year of indium smelting. Its key equity-holding subsidiary has a capacity of 43,000 mt/year of tin materials and 27,100 mt/year of tin chemicals. Meanwhile, the Company is the only enterprise in China that holds the qualification for processing trade with imported materials for both tin concentrates and copper concentrates, with the right to re-export. 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In the future, Yunnan Tin will take the inclusion in the list of “Creating World-class Professional Exemplary Enterprises” released by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC) as a major opportunity, deepen the creation work, focus on enhancing core competitiveness and strengthening core functions, further strengthen resource expansion, modern mining, raw material manufacturing, reinforce conservation-oriented development and utilization of resources, promote intelligent mining and intelligent smelting, and strive to become a world-class provider of key non-ferrous metal raw materials featuring distinctive professional advantages, innovation-driven development, lean management, and distinctive characteristics. Yunnan Tin Co., Ltd. was restructured and incorporated in 1998, with its origin tracing back to the Gejiu Mining & Merchants Bureau funded and established by the imperial court in 1883. In February 2000, the Company was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange under the stock short name "Yunnan Tin" and stock code 000960. It has been featured on the Fortune China 500 list for consecutive years, ranking No.1 among Yunnan Top 100 High-tech Enterprises 2023 and No.2 among Yunnan Top 100 Manufacturing Enterprises 2023. The Company holds the world’s largest reserves of tin and indium resources, and operates China’s largest tin production and processing base. Its self-owned production capacities stand at 80,000 tons of tin smelting, 125,000 tons of cathode copper, 100,000 tons of zinc smelting and 60 tons of indium smelting per annum. Key invested subsidiaries boast annual capacities of 43,000 tons of tin materials and 27,100 tons of tin chemicals. Meanwhile, it is the only domestic enterprise qualified for import and re-export processing of both tin and copper concentrates in China. 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According to foreign media reports, Panama’s government is evaluating the creation of a state-owned enterprise (SOE) to pave the way for restarting First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panamá copper mine. Under the proposed public-private partnership, the Panamanian state would hold a 35% to 40% equity stake, while First Quantum would retain operational control with the remaining 60% to 65%. Alternatively, officials are considering a direct leasing structure where the state maintains sole ownership of the underlying concession in exchange for royalty and tax revenues. Cobre Panamá has remained idle since late 2023 following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated its operator contract, alongside subsequent legislation banning new private mining concessions. Establishing an SOE provides a constitutional mechanism for President José Raúl Mulino’s administration to resume mining operations without issuing new private permits. Disagreements have cooled as First Quantum suspended its $20 billion international arbitration claim and received permission to sell stockpiled copper concentrates, restart its power plant, and conduct an environmental audit that scored an 88% compliance rating. A final government decision is expected before the end of the year.

[SMM Analysis: High Imports Yet Lower TCs: Why China’s Copper Concentrate Market Is Getting Tighter amid Rising Purchases] In H1 2026, China’s copper concentrate imports stayed high but edged down YoY, with the pace of imports slowing noticeably in Q2 compared with Q1. At the same time, new and expanded smelting capacity continued to come onstream, and growth in copper concentrate demand outpaced the increase in import supply, driving spot TCs further down. On July 24, the SMM Imported Copper Concentrate Index (weekly) fell to -$154.76/dmt, further highlighting the contradiction of high imports coexisting with deeply negative TCs. Looking ahead to H2, stockpiling, feeding, and production ramp-up at three new smelting projects in China will add to rigid procurement demand. Higher production from Oyu Tolgoi, a seasonal recovery in South American mine output, and shipments of some stockpiled ore are expected to support a QoQ increase in China’s copper concentrate imports. However, the resumption of production at Grasberg will still take time, and local smelting capacity in Indonesia and Africa continues to absorb domestically produced concentrates, meaning that increases in overseas mine production may not proportionally translate into accessible supply for China. China’s copper concentrate imports are expected to remain high in H2 and rebound somewhat from H1, but the global supply-demand “hard deficit” for copper concentrates is unlikely to ease in the short term, and freely tradable, suitable supply will stay tight. In the absence of large-scale, sustained production cuts on the smelting side, spot TCs are more likely to show an L-shaped pattern of low-level operation with intermittent rebounds, and the configuration of rising imports alongside negative TCs will persist.