According to the latest data disclosed by the General Administration of Customs, China’s imported copper cathode market, while maintaining the 2025 baseline, is facing dual challenges: the continued rise in the share of EQ copper and whether global supply will continue to be diverted. China’s cumulative copper cathode imports in January-February 2026 totaled 356,900 mt, down 33.13% YoY.

Data released by the online query platform of customs statistics showed that China’s copper cathode imports in February 2026 were 203,588.22 mt, down 18.78% MoM and down 33.28% YoY. The DRC was the largest origin, with China importing 70,661.8 mt of copper cathode from the DRC during the month, down 33.06% MoM and down 28.63% YoY. Chile was the second-largest origin, with China importing 25,429.03 mt of copper cathode from Chile during the month, up 8.18% MoM and down 32.18% YoY. The following is a breakdown of China’s copper cathode imports in February 2026, compiled based on data from the official website of the General Administration of Customs: Source: General Administration of Customs Note: 1. Including unwrought copper cathode with a copper content >99.9935%; unwrought other refined copper cathode; unwrought refined copper wire bars; unwrought refined copper cathode sections; unwrought refined copper billets; and other unwrought refined copper. 2. The total imports (grand total) also include data for some origins not listed in the table above. (Wenhua Composite)

As of January 20, 2026, the full-year import data for copper cathode in 2025 has been disclosed. According to data compiled by SMM from the General Administration of Customs, EQ copper cathode (referring primarily to copper cathode not registered with the SHFE or LME, as well as a small portion of registered cathode still traded as EQ in the domestic market) accounted for 67.54% of China's total imports in 2025, an increase of 5.37 percentage points compared to 2024.

[SMM Analysis: Deep B's performance is not enough, while transition to C is not yet complete] SMM believes that the backwardation structure of SHFE will weaken in the future market. The premise of our following discussion is based on the existing tariff levels in the US.

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's total imports of copper cathode reached 249,991 mt in April, down 19.06% MoM and 11.97% YoY.

Online inquiry data from the General Administration of Customs (GAC) showed that China's imports of copper cathode in April were 300,200 mt, down 15.27% MoM and 1.73% YoY. Among them, the Congo remained the largest supplier, with a supply volume of 113,800 mt, which increased slightly MoM but decreased YoY. Russia was the second-largest supplier, with supply volumes increasing by over 50% MoM in March, but in April, supply volumes decreased by over 60% MoM to approximately 25,600 mt. Data source: General Administration of Customs

Data from the Online Inquiry Platform for Customs Statistics showed that China's imports of copper cathode reached 300,181.941 mt in April 2025, down 15.27% MoM and 1.73% YoY. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was the largest supplier, with 113,788.254 mt of copper cathode imported from the DRC that month, up 1.12% MoM but down 3.81% YoY. Russia was the second-largest supplier, with 25,550.879 mt of copper cathode imported from Russia that month, down 64.99% MoM but up 117.21% YoY. Below is a breakdown of copper cathode imports in April 2025 compiled based on data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) website: Note: 1. This includes copper cathode with an unwrought copper content >99.9935%, unwrought other refined copper cathode, unwrought refined copper wire ingots, unwrought refined copper cathode sections, unwrought refined copper billets, and other unwrought refined copper. 2. The total import volume (Total) also includes data for some origins not listed in the table above.

According to SMM, to meet the demands of industrial and energy transformation, India's domestic copper demand is expected to double by 2030. Companies in India's copper industry include Hindalco Industries, Vedanta, Adani, and the state-owned Hindustan Copper. It is estimated that India's copper cathode production is approximately 555,000 mt, and the country imports around 500,000 mt of copper annually to bridge the supply gap. Since the closure of Vedanta's Sterlite copper smelter in India in 2018, imports have surged. However, in December last year, the Indian government stated that the capacity expansion of Adani's smelter would meet India's domestic demand and reduce imports. It is expected to commence operations within the next four weeks. Japan accounts for approximately two-thirds of India's copper cathode imports, followed by Tanzania and Mozambique.

On May 13 (Tuesday), to meet the demands of industrial and energy transformation, India's domestic copper demand is expected to double by 2030. Companies in India's copper industry include Hindalco Industries, Vedanta, Adani, and the state-owned Hindustan Copper. It is estimated that India's copper cathode production is approximately 555,000 mt, and the country imports around 500,000 mt of copper annually to bridge the supply gap. Since the closure of Vedanta's domestic Sterlite copper smelter in 2018, imports have surged. However, in December last year, the Indian government stated that the capacity expansion of Adani's smelter would meet India's domestic demand and reduce imports. It is expected to commence operations within the next four weeks. Japan accounts for approximately two-thirds of India's copper cathode imports, followed by Tanzania and Mozambique. Currently, there are 10 certified foreign copper suppliers, seven of which are Japanese companies, in addition to five certified domestic suppliers.

On the macro front, the US April non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations and the unemployment rate remained stable, temporarily alleviating recession fears. However, the Q1 GDP contraction of 0.3% on an annualized basis revealed a decline in endogenous growth momentum. Coupled with potential retaliatory tariff threats, the risk of economic stagnation has risen. Although the US Fed has paused interest rate hikes three times in a row, Powell's statements have kept the door open for interest rate cuts and reiterated policy independence. While this has soothed the market, it cannot conceal the pressure of sticky inflation on real interest rates. China, on the other hand, has preemptively launched unexpected easing measures, including RRR cuts, interest rate cuts, and reductions in housing provident fund rates, completing policy hedging before the US Fed's interest rate decision. It has clearly shifted its monetary policy objectives towards "stabilizing growth + promoting price rebound", directly stimulating infrastructure/real estate chains and new energy capacity. Copper futures have been caught in a tug-of-war between bulls and bears during the week: macroeconomic recession risks are pitted against tight fundamentals. LME copper fluctuated between $9,350-9,550/mt, while the most-traded SHFE copper contract fluctuated rangebound between 77,000-78,000 yuan/mt. On the fundamental front, copper cathode imports in April declined MoM from March, but copper concentrate imports exceeded historical highs. During the Labour Day holiday, domestic copper cathode inventories fell instead of rising. The backwardation structure of the nearby SHFE copper contract widened by more than 600 yuan/mt at the end of the week, sparking market concerns about structural risks. Spot premiums rapidly fell from 300 yuan/mt at the beginning of the week to near parity, with market trading shifting more towards deferred contracts. The sustainability of downstream enterprise consumption currently appears weak. After entering May, the operating rate has shown a downward trend. While orders on hand continue to be depleted, growth in new orders remains limited. However, the structural issue of tight raw material supply at the upstream end remains difficult to alleviate in the short term. Looking ahead to next week, the US and the UK have initially reached a consensus on tariff issues. It is necessary to monitor new developments in tariff and trade issues between China and the US after their talks in Europe. Whether macroeconomic tensions ease will bring significant uncertainty to subsequent copper price fluctuations. It is expected that LME copper will fluctuate between $9,350-9,600/mt next week, while SHFE copper will fluctuate between 77,000-78,500 yuan/mt. On the spot front, under a high backwardation structure, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2505 contract have fallen to near parity. It is expected that the backwardation structure will still widen on the last trading day of the 2505 contract. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2505 contract are expected to range from a discount of 200 yuan/mt to parity. After the contract rollover, it is expected to range from a premium of 300-500 yuan/mt against the SHFE copper 2506 contract.