SMM July 2 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 102,180 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premium was 50 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap price rose by 200 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The copper scrap selling sentiment index dropped to 2.32, and the buying sentiment index dropped to 2.45. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,169 yuan/mt, down 53 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 130 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, on the second day of the implementation of the "reverse invoicing" rule, the copper scrap market showed no significant changes. With tight supply, the copper scrap price struggled to widen its spread against copper cathode. Many secondary copper rod enterprises continued to make just-in-time procurement.

North China: As of this Thursday, spot discounts were 160-80/mt, with an average discount of 120 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from last Friday. This week, futures moved sideways, downstream procurement was marked by a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and overall demand was weak. Early this month, market circulating supply tightened, suppliers' willingness to hold prices firm increased, spot discounts moved up simultaneously, and market trading cooled. Overall, trading activity in the North China market this week was lower than last week. Looking ahead, the demand side is unlikely to improve in the short term, coupled with suppliers' maintaining of firm prices and wait-and-see stance, the market trading is expected to be difficult to recover.

[Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, the early-month procurement cycle is continuing, downstream demand is still being released, and both buying and selling sentiment have been rebounding, keeping market trading activity relatively brisk. On the supplier side, after low-priced cargoes were rapidly absorbed, discounted cargoes became hard to find in the market, and suppliers developed a stronger willingness to hold prices firm. Buyers’ parity bids could not be executed. Due to scarce availability, premiums for high-quality copper held at the high level of 80-100 yuan/mt, providing support to overall premiums. On the inventory front, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai region recorded 126,500 mt, down 7,700 mt WoW from Monday; in the Jiangsu region, social inventory recorded 36,200 mt, down 5,000 mt WoW from Monday, with both regions showing a destocking trend. Overall, driven by the confluence of early-month demand release, suppliers holding prices firm, and inventory destocking, spot Shanghai copper against the SHFE 2607 contract is expected to remain at a premium tomorrow, maintaining an overall strong trend.

July 2, 2026 Guangdong region: This week, premiums and discounts bottomed out and then rebounded. At the beginning of the week, due to mid-year financial constraints at enterprises, suppliers actively cut prices to monetize, but downstream buyers were reluctant to purchase, causing premiums to continue to decline. After the contract rollover, suppliers stopped cutting prices, and spot premiums surged. As of Thursday, high-quality copper was quoted at 50 yuan/mt, down 40 yuan/mt from last Thursday; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 0 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday; SX-EW copper was quoted at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, down 20 yuan/mt from last Thursday. On Thursday, the price spread for standard-quality copper premiums between Shanghai and Guangdong was 0 yuan/mt, which was relatively small and led to no inter-regional shipments. According to SMM statistics, as of Thursday, total inventory in Guangdong warehouses stood at 31,700 mt, up 11,100 mt from last Thursday, with warrant holdings totaling 5,800 mt, up 3,134 mt from last Thursday. Specifically, this week's warehouse arrivals were 20,900 mt/week, up 3,300 mt/week from last week, significantly above the annual average of 14,000 mt/week. Mid-year, smelters faced pressure to monetize and actively shipped out, and with downstream consumption weak, deliveries to warehouses increased. Warehouse withdrawals were 10,100 mt/week, down 2,200 mt from last week, below the annual average of 14,200 mt/week, mainly due to weak downstream consumption this week. Looking ahead to next week, it is reported that arrivals of both domestic and imported copper will be limited, while downstream consumption is expected to gradually recover. Inventory is likely to decline again, and spot premiums are expected to gradually pick up. (The above information is based on market collection and the comprehensive assessment of the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct investment research decision advice. Clients should make decisions prudently and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market.)

In North China, spot #1 copper cathode against the front-month contract was reported at an average discount of 160 yuan/mt to 80 yuan/mt, with the average discount at 120 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average transaction price was 102,230 yuan/mt, up 330 yuan/mt from the previous trading day.

SMM, July 2: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was reported at 50 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was at 0 yuan/mt, unchanged; and SX-EW copper was at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, unchanged. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,340 yuan/mt, up 120 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, while the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,255 yuan/mt, also up 120 yuan/mt. Spot market: Guangdong inventory finally ended its 9 consecutive increases and edged down, mainly driven by recovering downstream consumption. Benefiting from the inventory decline, suppliers actively held prices firm in early trading, pushing standard-quality copper up to a premium of 20 yuan/mt. However, buyers' purchase willingness was low, forcing an adjustment back down, with the final transaction price at parity, unchanged from yesterday. Today, copper cathode purchase sentiment in Guangdong was 2.48, edging up 0.03 from the previous day, while shipment sentiment was 2.86, down 0.03 (historical data can be accessed by logging into the database). Overall, intraday premiums retreated after a rapid rise, only to close unchanged from yesterday, with overall trading being moderate.

SMM Morning Call Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,120/mt, dipped to a low of $13,103.5/mt in early trading, then the price center drifted higher to touch $13,364/mt, after which it swung wildly and finally closed at $13,330.5/mt, down 0.37%, with trading volume at 23,000 lots and open interest at 242,000 lots, a decrease of 3,122 lots from the previous trading day, indicating long position reduction. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2608 contract opened at 101,830 yuan/mt, dipped to 101,640 yuan/mt in early trading, then the price center moved sharply higher to touch 102,930 yuan/mt, after which it swung wildly and finally closed at 102,520 yuan/mt, up 0.07%, with trading volume at 50,000 lots and open interest at 154,000 lots, a decrease of 286 lots from the previous trading day, indicating short position reduction.

SMM July 1 At 11:30 today, the futures closing price was 102,020 yuan/mt, down 490 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average spot premiums were 40 yuan/mt, up 40 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Copper scrap prices fell 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The sales sentiment index for copper scrap dropped to 2.36, while the procurement sentiment index rose to 2.48. The price difference between copper cathode and copper scrap was 1,222 yuan/mt, down 338 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The price difference between copper cathode rod and secondary copper rod was 160 yuan/mt. According to the SMM survey, entering the high-temperature off-season in July, secondary copper rod enterprises reported a decline in downstream orders. At the same time, copper prices continued to decline, and copper scrap traders held back from selling, leading to relatively high copper scrap prices. As a result, secondary copper rod prices were quoted at a premium of 200-300 yuan/mt over futures, with transactions remaining extremely sluggish.

SMM News on July 1: Metals market: As of midday close, domestic base metals mostly fell. SHFE copper fell 0.44%, SHFE aluminum fell 0.86%. SHFE lead fell 1.46%. SHFE zinc rose 1.01%. SHFE tin rose 0.93%. SHFE nickel fell 0.61%. Additionally, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 0.64%, the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.11%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 5.65%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 0.6%. The most-traded polysilicon futures rose 3.08%. Ferrous metals all fell. Iron ore fell 1.81%, HRC fell 0.52%. Rebar fell 0.79%, stainless steel fell 0.14%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract fell 2%, the most-traded coke contract fell 2.33%. Overseas base metals market, as of 11:36, LME metals all fell. LME copper fell 0.91%, LME aluminum fell 1.18%, LME lead fell 0.69%. LME zinc fell 0.69%, LME tin fell 1.53%. LME nickel fell 0.37%. Precious metals, as of 11:36, COMEX gold fell 1.09%, COMEX silver fell 2.74%. Domestic precious metals: SHFE gold fell 0.37%; the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 0.5%. Additionally, as of midday close, the most-traded platinum futures fell 1.91%, and the most-traded palladium futures fell 1.03%. As of midday close, the most-traded European container shipping futures fell 9.81% to 2,560 points. As of 11:36 on July 1, midday futures quotes for some contracts: Spot and fundamentals Copper: Today, Guangdong #1 copper cathode spot against the front-month contract: high-quality copper reported at a premium of 50 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper reported at parity, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; SX-EW copper reported at a discount of 60 yuan/mt, up 90 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The average price of Guangdong #1 copper cathode was 102,220 yuan/mt, up 140 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, and the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,135 yuan/mt, up 160 yuan/mt... Macro front China: [The PBOC net withdrew 1,162.5 billion yuan from the open market today.] The PBOC conducted 100 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repo operations today at an unchanged interest rate of 1.4%. Today, 662.5 billion yuan in 7-day and 600 billion yuan in overnight reverse repos matured. [Shenzhen's June housing transactions hit a near 6-year high.] According to data released by Shenzhen Centaline Research Center today, Shenzhen's new and secondhand home transactions totaled 8,878 units in June, down 11.9% MoM but up 14.2% YoY. The combined new and secondhand home transaction volume hit a new high for the same period since 2021. Among them, first-hand residential (presale + existing) online signings totaled 3,785 units, down 16.7% MoM but up 15.6% YoY; second-hand residential transfers reached 5,093 units, down 8% MoM but up 13.1% YoY. (Jin10 Data APP) US dollar aspect: As of 11:36, the US dollar index rose 0.16% to 101.33. Fed’s Hammack said: The labour market is near full employment, with good growth prospects. Inflation remains too high, and the Fed may need to consider rate hikes. Jason Pride, Chief of Investment Strategy at private wealth management and investment firm Glenmede, and Michael Reynolds, Vice President of Investment Strategy, said investors should expect the US June unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%, with non-farm payrolls increasing by about 87,000. While this represents a pullback from May’s 172,000, in the current labour market environment of “low hiring, low layoffs,” it still counts as a solid outcome. Although employment fundamentals remain largely intact, the Fed’s focus has shifted to inflation, meaning that the timing of any future easing measures will depend more on inflation pressures than on job growth itself. According to CME’s “FedWatch”: The probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 66.3%, and the chance of a cumulative 25bp rate hike is 33.7%. For September, the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged is 33.1%, the chance of a cumulative 25bp hike is 50.0%, and the chance of a cumulative 50bp hike is 16.9%. (Jin10 Data APP) Data highlights: Today will see the release of US June Challenger Job Cuts, US June ADP Employment Change, US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final), US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, US May Construction Spending MoM, UK June Nationwide House Price Index MoM, UK June Manufacturing PMI (final), Switzerland May Real Retail Sales YoY, France June Manufacturing PMI (final), Germany June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June Manufacturing PMI (final), Eurozone June CPI YoY (preliminary), and Eurozone June CPI MoM (preliminary), among others. In addition, Fed Chairman Warsh, ECB President Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Macklem spoke at the “Policy Panel” session of the ECB’s Global Central Bank Forum. The Davos Technology Summit is held from July 1 to 4, with the theme “Physical AI and Robotics.” It is worth noting that on July 1, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (China) was closed for the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Establishment Day, with both northbound and southbound trading suspended. The Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada was closed for Canada Day. Crude oil: As of 11:36, oil prices on both benchmarks edged up, with WTI up 0.42% and Brent up 0.41%. Preliminary vessel tracking data from Kpler and Vortexa showed the UAE lifted exports of crude oil and condensate to a record high in June, shortly after leaving OPEC. Rauball, a senior oil analyst at Kpler, said UAE exports of crude and condensate averaged about 3.7 million barrels per day this month, a record high and well above the pre-Middle East conflict level of 3.1 million to 3.3 million barrels per day. The UAE's previous export peak was 3.44 million barrels per day in April 2020, when Saudi Arabia and Russia triggered a brief oil price war. Emma Li, a senior oil analyst at Vortexa, said crude loadings from Abu Dhabi hit 4 million barrels per day between June 1 and 29, surpassing the pre-conflict level of 3.4 million barrels per day. Exports also rose to a record 3.7 million barrels per day, compared with 3.3 million barrels per day in the first two months of this year. (Jin10 Data APP) Spot Market Overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Tomorrow, today was the first trading day of July, a new monthly procurement cycle began, downstream enterprises’ restocking demand at the beginning of the month was released to some extent, and both buying and selling sentiment rebounded markedly, lifting market trading activity. Supplier side, after low-priced cargoes dwindled, suppliers’ willingness to hold prices firm became evident, with the premium for high-quality copper staying at a high of 50-80 yuan/mt. The inter-month price spread was near parity, limiting suppliers’ delivery profits from holding positions, weakening their willingness to sell at low prices, and providing support for spot discounts. Overall, driven by the release of month-start restocking demand, buying interest spurred by low copper prices, and suppliers’ resolve to hold prices firm, spot prices against the SHFE copper 2607 contract tomorrow are expected to edge up.