Recently, China's tungsten prices have retreated from highs, with wolframite concentrates falling 16.18% over a period of more than one month. After lowering their long-term contract prices for the first half of April, multiple tungsten enterprises continued to cut long-term contract prices for the second half of April. However, in terms of the magnitude of this round of reductions, the long-term contract price cuts for the second half of April narrowed significantly compared to the first half, which to some extent helped market sentiment gradually stabilize. Currently, wait-and-see sentiment remains strong in the market, the tug-of-war between upstream and downstream continues — how will tungsten prices perform going forward? Multiple Tungsten Enterprises Continue to Cut Long-term Contract Prices Multiple tungsten enterprises lowered their long-term contract prices for the second half of April, as follows: A Jiangxi tungsten group released its long-term contract prices for the second half of April: the guidance price for national standard Grade-1 wolframite concentrates for the second half of April 2026 was 910,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 46,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the first half of April. Meanwhile, Chongyi Zhangyuan Tungsten Co., Ltd. also lowered its long-term contract procurement prices for the second half of April: 1 55% wolframite concentrates: 885,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 45,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 2 55% scheelite concentrates: 884,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 45,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) from the previous round; 3 APT (national standard Grade-0): 1.35 million yuan/mt, down 90,000 yuan/mt from the previous round. Notably, in the first half of April pricing, Zhangyuan Tungsten's 55% wolframite concentrates and 55% scheelite concentrates had already been cut by 90,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) each MoM. Wolframite Concentrates Fell Over 16% in Just Over a Month Since mid-to-late March, driven by profit-taking, downstream buyers' reluctance to purchase at high levels, and an overall adjustment in commodity markets, tungsten prices — which had repeatedly hit record highs — began to pull back. On April 20, wolframite concentrates (≥65%) were priced at 880,000–881,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), with an average price of 880,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis), down 1.12% from the previous trading day. Compared with the historical high average tungsten price of 1,050,500 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) on March 16, the average price of wolframite concentrates fell by 170,000 yuan/standard tonne (65%WO3 basis) over just over a month, a decline of 16.18%. Outlook As leading tungsten enterprises' long-term contract prices were finalized, China's tungsten market sentiment turned mild. Mainstream mines focused on long-term contract deliveries, with spot order prices fluctuating around long-term contract levels. APT smelter prices remained firm, and driven by continued ore price movements, APT industry margins showed a widening trend. Wait-and-see sentiment among downstream cemented carbide alloy enterprises has not fully dissipated, with enterprises mainly restocking on a just-needed basis. However, industry inventory has been gradually declining, and a wave of restocking is expected before the Labour Day holiday, which will drive a recovery in tungsten market trading volume. Meanwhile, the tight supply pattern of tungsten outside China remained unchanged. Cemented carbide plants in Japan and several other countries collectively raised their quotes, which was positive for the export and consumption of related products in China. In the short term, long-term contracts stabilized the tungsten market. As industry profit-taking positions were gradually cleared and downstream demand followed up, the tungsten market was expected to gradually stop falling and stabilize. Going forward, the focus should be on tracking the actual pre-holiday restocking progress of cemented carbide alloy enterprises. Recommended reading:

[SMM Tungsten Daily Review: Weakening Long-Term Contract Support in Tungsten Market, Industry Chain Continued to Fluctuate Downward] SMM April 21: China's spot tungsten market continued to fluctuate downward today. Major mines primarily fulfilled long-term contracts, while spot orders were hard to come by. Prices of tungsten smelting products, tungsten powder, and recycled materials were generally under pressure. Market pessimism spread further. Profit-taking accumulated from earlier high prices continued to be released, compounded by shrinking industry orders in downstream cemented carbide and cutting tool sectors. End-user procurement nearly came to a standstill. The market remained in a state of unrelenting upstream selling pressure and declining downstream buying volumes, with the overall trading sentiment staying sluggish.

The General Office of Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued a notice on the *Implementation Plan for the National Digital Economy Innovation and Development Pilot Zone (Shanghai)*, which mentioned advancing the exploration of frontier technologies. This includes accelerating the piloting and commercialization of technologies such as brain-computer interfaces, sixth-generation mobile communications (6G), and quantum computing, as well as building common technology R&D service platforms. Research will be conducted on mechanisms for third-generation internet (Web 3.0) innovation testbeds, exploring the development of a trusted technology foundation based on smart contracts, and carrying out technology verification in an orderly manner.

1 Procurement Conditions The purchaser of this procurement project, Ansteel Powder Material Carbonyl Nickel Powder (AGGZZBHGXHD260421283206), is the Tender Management Office of the Procurement and Supply Center of Ansteel Group Engineering Technology Development Co., Ltd. The project funds are self-raised. The project has met the procurement conditions, and an open inquiry and comparison is now being conducted. 2 Project Overview and Procurement Scope 2.1 Project Name: Ansteel Powder Material Carbonyl Nickel Powder 2.2 Switching to other procurement methods upon procurement failure: No 2.3 The procurement content, scope, and scale of this project are detailed in the attachment "Material List Attachment.pdf". 3 Bidder Qualification Requirements 3.1 Joint venture bidding is not permitted for this procurement. 3.2 Bidders for this procurement shall possess the following qualification requirements: (1) Business license for distribution (2) Business license for manufacturing 3.3 Bidders for this procurement shall meet the following registered capital requirements: Registered capital for manufacturers: 200 (10,000 yuan) and above Registered capital for distributors: 200 (10,000 yuan) and above 3.4 Bidders for this procurement shall meet the following performance requirements: Supply performance of similar products after January 1, 2022 (contracts and corresponding invoices). 3.5 Bidders for this procurement shall meet the following capability requirements, financial requirements, and other requirements: Financial requirements: See attachments for details (if applicable) Capability requirements: See attachments for details (if applicable) Other requirements: See attachments for details (if applicable) 3.6 For projects subject to mandatory tender and bid procedures as required by law in this procurement, bids from persons subject to enforcement for breach of trust shall be invalid. 4 Obtaining Procurement Documents 4.1 All parties interested in bidding shall log in to the Ansteel Smart Tender and Bid Platform at http://bid.ansteel.cn to download the electronic procurement documents from 11:00 on April 21, 2026 to 13:00 on April 28, 2026 (Beijing time, the same hereinafter). Click to view tender details:

On the evening of April 20, Chengtun Mining's Q1 report showed that the company achieved total operating revenue of 9.354 billion yuan, up 65.08% YoY; net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.02 billion yuan, up 250.40% YoY. Regarding the main reasons for the increase in Q1 revenue and net profit, Chengtun Mining stated that the company's main copper products saw higher production and sales volumes YoY, copper prices rose YoY, and profits improved; the company enhanced quality and efficiency in production and operations, controllable costs declined YoY, and performance grew during the period. In addition, Chengtun Mining also announced on April 20 that as of the disclosure date, the cumulative total outstanding external guarantees of the publicly listed firm and its controlling subsidiaries amounted to 10.854 billion yuan, accounting for 65.86% of the most recently audited net assets of the publicly listed firm. Of this, the cumulative total guarantees provided to associates was 172.04 million yuan; the cumulative total guarantees provided to controlling subsidiaries was 10.682 billion yuan, accounting for 64.82% of the most recently audited net assets of the publicly listed firm. None of the company's external guarantees were overdue. Chengtun Mining announced on April 8 that its wholly-owned subsidiary Preeminence Holdings Limited plans to acquire 50% equity of Nkoyi Leopard Mining and Investment Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Novel Mining and Services Limited, a company registered in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, UAE, for $300 million, thereby indirectly obtaining a 30% interest in specific copper-cobalt mining rights located in the DRC. Upon completion of this transaction, Nkoyi will become an associate of the company and will not be consolidated into the financial statements. Under the agreement, Preeminence plans to acquire 50% equity of Nkoyi for $300 million. Nkoyi's wholly-owned subsidiary has entered into a joint venture agreement for specific copper-cobalt mining rights, holding a 60% interest in such mining rights. Therefore, after this transaction, the company will hold a 30% interest in such mining rights. Nkoyi was established in October 2024 and has not yet commenced production or operations; its core asset is the aforementioned 60% interest in the copper-cobalt mine project. The counterparty, Novel Mining, was established in March 2026 and registered in Abu Dhabi, with its core project being the copper-cobalt mining rights. On April 2, Chengtun Mining responded to investor questions on an interactive platform, stating that the company continuously monitors relevant risks in its overseas operating locations, and that its operating projects in the DRC are currently running stably. On April 2, Chengtun Mining responded to investor questions on an interactive platform, stating that to effectively manage price fluctuations of non-ferrous metals and exchange rate risks, the company has adopted multiple risk management measures, including hedging and locking in selling prices of some mine product inventory and copper, gold and other products through bears futures contracts. When market prices of metal products rise, losses are reflected on the futures side. In 2025, market prices of copper, gold and other metals rose significantly, resulting in large unrealized losses on the futures side, which are offset by corresponding gains on the spot cargo side. The futures team will diligently carry out hedging operations in a prudent manner centered on the company's core business within the framework of the company's management systems. Chengtun Mining's previously released 2025 annual report showed that in 2025, the global non-ferrous metals industry entered a new development stage of supply-demand restructuring and value reassessment. Energy metals such as copper, cobalt and nickel were boosted by rigid demand from new energy, AI computing power, global power grid upgrades and other sectors, coupled with rigid supply-side constraints, driving the price center continuously upward. Precious metals such as gold saw a value opportunity amid global geopolitical conflicts and rising safe-haven demand. The new energy battery industry achieved high-quality advancement amid structural opportunities. Facing new industry development opportunities, the company adhered to its resource-oriented and internationalization strategy, deepened its entire industry chain layout of "controlling upstream resources and expanding downstream materials," strengthened operational measures of "controlling costs, focusing on details, and enhancing quality and efficiency," continuously consolidated core capabilities in global resource exploration, construction and operations, and enhanced the industry chain extension value of smelting, processing and materials manufacturing, continuously strengthening operational quality and resilience against cyclical fluctuations amid industry value restructuring. In 2025, the company achieved new breakthroughs in global resource deployment and industry chain operational capabilities. Overseas core projects achieved remarkable results in quality and efficiency improvement. After the completion of the Phase II expansion of the BMS copper smelting project, capacity increased significantly, reaching 120,000 mt in metal content by year-end, with annual production of 106,300 mt in metal content, and the profitability resilience of the copper-cobalt business continued to strengthen. The Kalongwe integrated mining and smelting project in the DRC advanced full-process technological transformation and engineering construction, achieving comprehensive upgrades in product quality control, production energy consumption reduction, comprehensive utilization of resources, and refined cost management. Indonesia's Youshan Nickel maintained stable operations amid industry fluctuations. The domestic segment made progress on multiple fronts: the Guizhou project further released industry chain extension value, Huajin Mining achieved steady growth in gold production, and the Dali Sanxin copper mine construction progressed in an orderly manner. In 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 30.003 billion yuan, up 16.60% YoY; net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1.961 billion yuan, down 2.19% YoY. Chengtun Mining stated in its 2025 annual report that the company is committed to the development and utilization of energy metal resources, especially metal varieties required for new energy batteries, while also expanding into precious metals such as gold. The company focuses on copper, nickel, cobalt and gold. Its main business segments include energy metals, base metals, metal trading and others. Regarding its main business operations, Chengtun Mining provided the following overview: 1. Energy metals business: During the reporting period, the company's energy metals business achieved revenue of 20.384 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 25.69%, down 2.71 percentage points from the previous year. In 2025, copper products production was 207,400 mt in metal content, up 17.48% from the previous year; copper products revenue reached 14.071 billion yuan, up 34.20% YoY, with a gross margin of 28.88%, down 6.35 percentage points YoY; cobalt products production was 9,200 mt in metal content, down 30.58% from the previous year, with revenue of 1.011 billion yuan, down 30.64% from the previous year, and a gross margin of 53.76%, up 10.21 percentage points from the previous year; nickel products production was 49,400 mt in metal content, up 50.42% from the previous year, with revenue of 4.286 billion yuan, up 13.16% from the previous year, and a gross margin of 0.32%, down 3.25 percentage points from the previous year. (1) Copper-cobalt segment: ① The company actively advanced production, construction, quality improvement and efficiency enhancement of its copper-cobalt segment in the DRC. By the end of the reporting period, the company's total copper capacity in the DRC reached 230,000 mt in metal content per year. The company's copper-cobalt smelting projects CCR and CCM maintained stable production and operations while continuously optimizing process flows, keeping product qualification rates at high levels. BMS successfully completed its Phase II expansion, officially entering the ranks of enterprises with annual copper production capacity of over 120,000 mt in metal content. The Kalongwe copper-cobalt project coordinated full-process technological transformation and engineering construction in 2025, successfully completing the implementation of core technological transformation projects, achieving comprehensive upgrades in product quality control, production energy consumption reduction, comprehensive utilization of resources, and refined cost management, with significant cost reduction and efficiency improvement results. ② Dali Sanxin actively processed mine construction-related permits and has obtained the project approval report, among others. Land use and safety and environmental assessment procedures are progressing steadily. ③ During the reporting period, the company actively sought sustainable resource security through exploration in high-potential areas and pursuing acquisitive copper ore resource M&A and cooperation opportunities. (2) Indonesia nickel segment: During the reporting period, the Youshan Nickel project achieved stable production and operations. In 2025, nickel prices fluctuated downward overall under an oversupply pattern, with a rebound at year-end due to Indonesian policy disruptions. Through comprehensive measures including improving management, optimizing production processes, and rationally arranging production and operations, as well as forming industry chain synergies with related domestic industries, the industry chain's risk resistance was enhanced. The company will continue to seek further development opportunities in the nickel segment on both the mine resource side and the smelting side. (3) Deep processing and materials segment: ① In 2025, amid the severe raw material shortage caused by the DRC's "cobalt export ban," Kelixin achieved value maximization through precise control of production and shipments pace and efficient allocation of limited raw material resources. ② Zhonghe Nickel optimized process technology, further advanced refined management of production sites, achieved results in process control of high-magnesium slag-type materials, and improved the system's adaptability to raw materials from multiple channels. ③ As of the end of December 2025, the Guizhou Phase I project completed its capacity ramp-up and achieved full-capacity operation, while the Guizhou Phase II project construction was actively progressing. The company conducted systematic process benchmarking, further optimized system process flows, strengthened refined management and control requirements for various tasks, and ensured continuous and stable operation of production systems. 2. Base metals business: (1) During the reporting period, Chengtun Zinc & Germanium's zinc smelting operated at full capacity and comprehensively recovered valuable metals including germanium, silver, copper, indium and gold. Germanium product production increased 37.18% YoY, and the industrialisation of indium metal comprehensive recovery achieved phased success. A breakthrough was achieved in smelting furnace control technology, with slag processing volume and valuable metal recovery rates steadily improving, and economic benefits significantly enhanced. (2) During the reporting period, the company actively advanced the processing of domestic mine permits to ensure orderly construction. Baoshan Hengyuan Xinmao obtained the provincial NDRC's approval for the mining engineering project in September 2025. Huajin Mining operated according to plan in 2025, selling 320.75 kg of gold and achieving revenue of 244 million yuan. 3. Metal trading business and others: During the reporting period, metal trading achieved operating revenue of 999 million yuan, down 24.46% YoY, accounting for only 3.33% of total revenue. Currently, the company's main business scale is growing steadily. While the scale and proportion of industrial production and manufacturing have increased, the trading business scale has been gradually reduced, achieving good results on the path of high-quality, sustained and stable development. Regarding the company's business plan, Chengtun Mining stated: In 2026, the company's production and operation targets are: copper products production of 230,000 mt in metal content; cobalt products production of 15,000 mt in metal content; nickel products production of 60,000 mt in metal content; zinc products production of 300,000 mt; and gold products production of 380 kg. In other areas, domestic mines include continuing to advance the full-scale construction and commissioning of the Dali Sanxin copper mine, proceeding with the Baoshan Hengyuan Xinmao mining project construction as planned, increasing Huajin Mining production, and achieving full commissioning of the Guizhou Phase II project. Given the complex and volatile market environment, this business plan serves only as a guiding indicator, is subject to uncertainties, and does not constitute a commitment to achieving the stated production targets. To safeguard the interests of all shareholders, the company reserves the right to revise this business plan in a timely manner based on changes in market conditions, industry policy adjustments, and actual production and operational needs. Investors are advised to pay close attention to industry-specific risks, rationally recognize the uncertainties of forecast information, and make prudent investment decisions. Citi raised its 0-3 month copper price forecast to $13,000 per mt. ANZ believes that demand resilience driven by the energy transition and data center growth will keep the market at a 4%-5% supply gap, thereby supporting copper prices. A Huafu Securities research report dated March 8 showed: Copper — short-term, expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts persist, and the tight fundamental landscape continues to support copper prices; medium and long-term, as deeper US Fed interest rate cuts boost investment and consumption while opening up room for China's monetary policy, coupled with potential inflationary rebound from the Trump administration's possible fiscal easing, the copper price center is expected to shift upward, and strong new energy demand will widen the supply-demand gap, maintaining a bullish outlook on copper prices. Aluminum — short-term, aluminum prices are mainly driven by macro sentiment and capital flows. Currently, the extent of aluminum price gains will depend on the duration of the strait blockade; if the shipping disruption is brief, the impact on prices should be limited, but a prolonged blockade could push aluminum prices to new highs. Individual stocks: Copper — focus on Zijin, CMOC, JCC, Chengtun Mining, Zangge, Jchx and Beibu-Gulf Copper, and H-shares focus on China Nonferrous Mining and Minmetals, etc. Aluminum — focus on Hongqiao Holdings, Tianshan, Yunnan Aluminum, Shenhuo, Huatong and Zhongfu, etc.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $13,237/mt, touched a low of $13,213/mt early in the session before the center fluctuated upward, reached a high of $13,330/mt and then began to fluctuate downward, ultimately closing at $13,245/mt, down 0.78%, with trading volume at 18,000 lots and open interest at 281,000 lots, an increase of 478 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2606 contract opened at 102,500 yuan/mt, quickly tested a high of 102,830 yuan/mt early in the session, then copper prices dropped sharply to a low of 102,280 yuan/mt, and subsequently fluctuated downward to ultimately close at 102,490 yuan/mt, down 0.13%, with trading volume at 31,000 lots and open interest at 199,000 lots, an increase of 2,351 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears adding positions.

【SMM Steel】Erciyas Steel Pipe completed pipe production/delivery for Morocco's drinking water project. The $76m contract supports a desalination initiative to secure water supplies for the Marrakech region. The manufacturer and partner provided materials on schedule. Local institutions continue construction. Erciyas is negotiating additional opportunities. Morocco intends to extend the partnership based on delivery performance. Both parties aim to expand collaboration across upcoming infrastructure developments.

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Adaro (through Alamtri Minerals) is currently finalizing offtake agreements for its aluminum smelter. The contracts will be a mix of short-term and long-term arrangements. The smelter remains on schedule, with production targeted at 40,000 tons per month in October 2026.

SMM April 20: Metals market: As of the midday close, most base metals on the domestic market rose. SHFE copper was up 0.79%. SHFE aluminum was down 1.22%. SHFE lead was up 0.18%, and SHFE zinc was up 1.08%. SHFE tin was up 0.26%, and SHFE nickel was down 0.88%. In addition, the most-traded casting aluminum futures fell 1.1%, and the most-traded alumina futures rose 0.32%. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures rose 1.96%. The most-traded silicon metal futures rose 1.05%. The most-traded polysilicon futures hit the daily limit up with a 9% gain. Ferrous metals mostly rose. Iron ore was up 0.77%, rebar up 0.8%, hot-rolled coil up 0.9%, and stainless steel down 0.23%. Coking coal and coke: the most-traded coking coal contract was up 3.13%, and the most-traded coke contract was up 2.56%. Overseas base metals, as of 11:40, most LME metals rose. LME copper was down 0.21%. LME aluminum was up 0.66%, LME lead edged up, and LME zinc was up 0.61%. LME tin was down 0.28%. LME nickel was up 1.53%. Precious metals, as of 11:40, COMEX gold was down 1.32%, and COMEX silver was down 1.8%. Domestic precious metals: the most-traded SHFE gold futures fell 0.1%, and the most-traded SHFE silver futures rose 1.84%. In addition, as of the midday close, the most-traded platinum futures rose 0.47%, and the most-traded palladium futures rose 0.23%. As of the midday close, the most-traded Europe containerized freight index contract was up 0.23%, at 2,100 points. As of 11:40 on April 20, midday futures quotes for selected contracts: Spot and Fundamentals Copper: Today in Guangdong, #1 copper cathode spot prices against the front-month contract: high-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 260 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; standard-quality copper was quoted at a premium of 170 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day; SX-EW copper was quoted at a premium of 110 yuan/mt, flat with the previous trading day. The average price of #1 copper cathode in Guangdong was 102,880 yuan/mt, up 840 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; the average price of SX-EW copper was 102,775 yuan/mt, up 835 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot market: Returning from the weekend, Guangdong inventory continued to decline sharply and had now fallen for 24 consecutive trading days, mainly due to low arrivals...... Macro Front China: [National Energy Administration: Total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh cumulatively from January to March, up 5.2% YoY] The National Energy Administration released data on total electricity consumption for March. From January to March, total electricity consumption reached 2,514.1 billion kWh cumulatively, up 5.2% YoY. In terms of electricity consumption by sector, the primary industry consumed 33.6 billion kWh, up 7.1% YoY. The secondary industry consumed 1,598.7 billion kWh, up 4.7% YoY; of which, industrial electricity consumption was 1,583.6 billion kWh, up 4.9% YoY, and high-tech and equipment manufacturing consumed 274.6 billion kWh, up 8.6% YoY. The tertiary industry consumed 483.3 billion kWh, up 8.1% YoY; of which, electricity consumption for charging and battery swapping services and internet data services was 37.6 billion kWh and 22.9 billion kWh respectively, with growth rates reaching 53.8% and 44.0% respectively. Urban and rural residential electricity consumption was 398.5 billion kWh, up 3.4% YoY. [April LPR Rates Released: Both 5-Year and 1-Year Rates Remained Unchanged for the Eleventh Consecutive Month] The April Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was released: PBOC kept the 1-year and 5-year LPR at 3% and 3.5% respectively, unchanged for the eleventh consecutive month. [Foshan Launches Commercial Housing "Trade-in" Program! First Batch Involves 22 Property Projects] Recently, the "Notice of Foshan Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Bureau on Organizing the First Batch of Commercial Housing Trade-in Program" was officially released. This is not merely an encouraging document; it is a comprehensive solution that systematically addresses bottlenecks in housing replacement through model innovation and a policy package. It aims to drive the real estate market's transition from "one-sided transactions" to a "virtuous cycle between existing and new housing stock," achieving a win-win outcome for residents, enterprises, and the market. The innovation of Foshan's trade-in policy lies in the involvement of multiple real estate enterprises: Foshan Anju, Chancheng Anju, Nanhai Youju, Shunde Chengtie, Gaoming Airport Construction, and Sanshui Anju serve as acquisition entities; while Foshan Chengfa, Foshan Urban Renewal, Foshan Lianzhi, Heyue Yaji, Shunkong Chengtou, Yongdeli Commerce, Sanshui Chanfa, and Miaohui Real Estate provide new housing sources. This model determines the value of existing homes through negotiation, establishes a "contract termination protection period" to avoid blindly pushing for lower prices, thereby completing the "sell old, buy new" closed loop and serving as a market stabilizer. (Foshan Release) US dollar: As of 11:40, the US dollar index was up 0.05% at 98.28. According to the CME "FedWatch" tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike by the US Fed in April was 0.5%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 99.5%. The probability of the US Fed cumulatively cutting interest rates by 25 basis points by June was 4.5%, the probability of maintaining rates unchanged was 95%, and the probability of cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points was 0.5%. (Jin10 Data) A CITIC Securities research report noted that US Fed Governor Milan and three other economists recently co-published a working paper titled "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet," whose structure bears similarities to the previously hotly debated "A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System." The paper challenges the conventional view that the US Fed cannot significantly reduce its balance sheet, arguing that reserve demand is largely determined by the regulatory environment and that balance sheet reduction can be achieved without causing unexpected market stress by adjusting the regulatory framework, curbing precautionary motives, and other sources of reserve demand. Monte Carlo simulations estimated the potential balance sheet reduction space at $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. We believe the "balance sheet reduction guide" has a degree of real-world feasibility, but some options are somewhat idealistic. (Jin10 Data) On other currencies: Asian Development Bank President Kanda Masato stated that the yen could face further pressure if the market perceives the Bank of Japan as acting too slowly in addressing inflation risks. Kanda Masato, who previously served as Japan's top foreign exchange diplomat, told reporters on Friday evening that investors buy US dollars during periods of global tension partly because the US is an oil exporter, but even if these positions are unwound, the yen would find it difficult to appreciate significantly against the US dollar. He said: "The biggest reason is the interest rate differential. As the market pays particular attention to what the US Fed might do, if many people believe the Bank of Japan will fall behind the curve in addressing inflation risks, the yen will be left behind." Kanda Masato said during the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group meetings in Washington this week that investors could also sell the yen if they are concerned about Japan's fiscal sustainability. (Jin10 Data) On data: Germany's March PPI month-over-month rate and Canada's March CPI month-over-month rate, among other data, were to be released today. Also worth watching: German Chancellor Merz and European Central Bank President Lagarde delivered speeches; Trump said a US delegation would arrive in Islamabad on the evening of the 20th for negotiations, while Iran denied reports of a second round of talks being held in Islamabad. On crude oil: As of 11:40, oil prices in both markets surged significantly, with WTI up 5.73% and Brent up 5.38%. Last Friday, the market was still celebrating ceasefire prospects, but within 72 hours over the weekend, the situation took a sharp turn — the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, the US seized an Iranian vessel, and Trump issued tough threats, quickly dashing the market's optimistic sentiment. (Wall Street Insights) The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Project Management Office website under the US Department of Energy (DOE) released information on the 17th stating that it would lend over 26 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to 9 oil enterprises. This was the third batch of petroleum reserves released by the Trump administration to stabilize oil prices since the US-Israel-Iran conflict began on February 28. (Jin10 Data) Australia's Viva Energy Group stated that its refinery in Geelong, Australia, would increase production of diesel, aviation fuel, and gasoline to 90% of full capacity in the coming weeks, after a major fire forced it to reduce production. The company stated that its inventory was sufficient to cover the production decline and was not expected to impact clients. (Jin10 Data) A CICC research report stated that as the Iran situation entered its 7th week, the situation saw further positive developments. Although the first round of negotiations "collapsed," both the US and Iran "announced" the reopening of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, which still largely boosted market optimism, despite subsequent fluctuations. This was largely consistent with our base case assumption: while short-term reversals remain possible, the situation ultimately spiraling out of control in the medium term is not the base case scenario. Trump still has midterm elections to consider, and a comprehensive and uncontrollable escalation does not serve either side's interests. Under this scenario, the Brent crude oil price center would gradually pull back to around $80 in Q2 and Q3, and the US Fed could still cut interest rates. Spot market overview: ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ► ►

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, Shanghai spot copper premiums remain under pressure. Demand side, according to SMM, some downstream enterprises saw a slight improvement in orders WoW, and end-user acceptance of current copper prices may have improved, with just-in-time procurement continuing. Market structure side, the inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened slightly, and suppliers showed a tendency to hold prices firm; meanwhile, some suppliers chose to lower offer prices for shipments to control inventory levels, leading to divergent market expectations for the outlook. Inventory side, SMM data showed that social inventory in the Shanghai area decreased by 5,400 mt WoW from Thursday, while the Jiangsu area decreased by 6,700 mt, with the destocking pace continuing. Overall, under the combined effects of mild demand recovery, support from the price spread structure between futures contracts, and some selling pressure, Shanghai spot copper prices against the 2605 contract are expected to remain at a discount tomorrow.