[7.22 Morning Briefing] The CSRC held an investor symposium to hear opinions and suggestions. Investor representatives suggested adopting multiple measures to guide medium and long-term funds into the market, and regulating the development of quantitative trading and AI applications. The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract fluctuated higher in the morning session, and as of the morning close it was quoted at 130,370 yuan/mt, up 0.09%. As the conflict between the US and Iran escalates, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been restricted, and sulfur cost support has strengthened somewhat. However, refined nickel inventory remains difficult to reduce, with domestic and international inventories still at high levels and a slow destocking speed. In the short term, the price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected to trade in the range of 125,000–130,000 yuan/mt.

Indonesia Targets Full Implementation of Single-Gate Export System by 1 September Indonesia expects to fully implement its single-gate export policy for strategic commodities by 1 September 2026, according to President Prabowo Subianto. The policy has been under a transition phase since 1 June 2026, with PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) coordinating preparations for the nationwide rollout. "We expect the full implementation of the single-gate export policy for strategic commodities by 1 September 2026," Prabowo said. Prabowo said DSI was established to strengthen oversight of strategic commodity exports, improve transparency, and better monitor export volumes and foreign exchange earnings.The government said the framework aims to improve export governance, strengthen oversight, and curb practices such as under-invoicing and transfer pricing. During the transition period, exporters will continue operating under the existing system while DSI gradually assumes a larger coordinating role.

July 16, 2026 Silver is not behaving like a cleaner version of gold. It fell hard this week even as the Iran story worsened, and that tells you the real trade is now split between fear, rates and industrial demand. You can see the tension in the tape. The Wall Street Journal reported that silver futures fell 2.83% on July 15 to $57.11 a troy ounce, their lowest close since Dec. 4, 2025, even as the US-Iran conflict kept pressure on energy markets. That is not what a simple haven story should look like. It is what happens when a metal has two buyers in the market and several reasons to sell at once. President Trump reversed his proposed 20% Strait of Hormuz toll on July 14 and the US reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, according to The Wall Street Journal. The Guardian reported the next day that Iran threatened to halt Middle East energy exports after renewed US strikes and attacks around the Strait. Oil moved higher on that risk. Gold failed to take full advantage of it. Silver did worse. That matters. If you are buying silver only because missiles are flying near a shipping chokepoint, you are buying the wrong story. The squeeze is still real The stronger case for silver sits away from the war headlines. The Financial Times, citing the World Silver Survey from Metals Focus and the Silver Institute, reported that the market is heading for a sixth straight annual deficit of roughly 46 million ounces. Solar demand is no longer climbing in a straight line, either. The same report said industrial demand is expected to decline as solar manufacturers use less silver and substitute cheaper materials, with solar demand forecast to fall 19% in 2026. Normally, that would be enough to cool the story. It hasn't. The problem is that silver's industrial demand is not just a solar panel chart anymore. Electronics, grid equipment, electric vehicles and data centers all pull on the same physical market. You do not need to dress that up. Silver conducts electricity better than any other metal, and in a world trying to move more power through more machines, that property has a price. The AI buildout keeps adding weight. AP reported this week that artificial intelligence investment by major technology companies is projected to exceed $700 billion in 2026, with Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft spending heavily on data centers. Tom's Hardware, citing Financial Times first-quarter data, put combined 2026 capital spending by Google, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon at $725 billion, up 77% from the previous year. Those figures are not silver demand numbers by themselves. But they do tell you why the industrial floor under the metal is harder to dismiss than it was in the last cycle. Here is the blunt version: gold has the cleaner fear trade, but silver has the messier and more interesting one. It gets pulled by wars and interest rates, then pulled again by factories and server farms. That makes it more volatile. It also gives it more ways to surprise you. Price targets need some humility There is no need to pretend silver is a sure thing. It just proved the opposite. The metal fell even while Middle East risk was live because higher oil can also mean stickier inflation, higher bond yields and a stronger case for central banks to stay tight. Non-yielding metals hate that setup. Silver hates it more because speculative money tends to leave quickly when the chart breaks. Forecasts should be read with that in mind. J.P. Morgan Global Research has been bullish on silver in its published commodities work, and Kitco has covered the bank's view that prices can average far above recent levels if deficits persist and investment demand returns. That's a serious argument. But it has a ceiling: if prices run too far, solar manufacturers thrift harder, switch pastes faster, or delay purchases. The FT's reporting on falling solar demand is the warning label on every bullish silver note. So the next test is not whether silver can react to another Iran headline. Of course it can. The better test is whether the metal can hold support when the war premium fades and buyers have to justify the price with physical demand, inventories and real industrial orders. Gold is easier to understand. Silver is easier to underestimate. If you are watching the metal now, do not watch only Tehran, Hormuz, oil or the next central bank speech. Watch the deficit numbers from the Silver Institute. Watch Big Tech capital spending, and watch whether solar thrifting starts to bite harder than AI infrastructure adds demand. That is where this trade will be decided, not in one dramatic move above or below $60. Source: https://startupfortune.com/silver-is-being-pulled-two-directions-at-once-and-that-is-exactly-why-it-could-outrun-gold/

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Bauxite overtook nickel as Indonesia's largest downstream investment sector in the second quarter of 2026, driven by the construction of new bauxite processing and smelting projects by domestic and foreign investors, according to Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani. Total downstream investment reached Rp152.7 trillion, up 5.7% year on year, accounting for 29.8% of national investment during the quarter. The government said it will continue expanding downstream development beyond nickel by building a more integrated bauxite value chain while accelerating investment in other strategic commodities, including palm oil, rubber, timber and silica sand.

The year 2026 marks the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan. Against the backdrop of intensifying global macro volatility and China’s deepening high-quality development, the zinc industry is undergoing profound changes: tightness on the ore side and the release of smelting capacity are creating structural tension, diverging inventories in and outside China reflect the complex dynamics of supply-demand rebalancing, and technological innovation is emerging as a key driving force to resolve conflicts and reshape the landscape. Key areas under the 15th Five-Year Plan, such as new energy and new-type infrastructure, are injecting fresh momentum into traditional zinc consumption, while green, low-carbon development and the circular economy are also accelerating the restructuring of industrial logic, driven by technological innovation. With the joint support of upstream and downstream enterprises across the zinc industry chain, industry associations, and all relevant parties, the 2026 SMM Zinc Industry Conference and the 8th Hot-Dip Galvanizing Industry Development and Technological Innovation Forum, the 14th Zinc Salt, Zinc Oxide and Zinc Secondary Resources Development Forum, and the Cast Zinc Alloy Development Forum is about to be held on August 6–8 in Qingdao, Shandong. The conference, themed “Gathering Zinc Momentum, Building the Zinc Industry, Embarking on a New Journey,” will be driven by dual engines of macro perspectives and fundamental analysis, closely following the main theme of high-quality development under the 15th Five-Year Plan, and focusing on four major dimensions: macro policies, supply-demand pattern, global trade, and technological innovation. It will leverage technological breakthroughs to drive cost reduction and efficiency improvement, address market fluctuations through collaborative innovation, and jointly draw a new blueprint for the high-quality and sustainable development of the zinc industry. Shanghai Eagle Metal Materials Co., Ltd. will make a grand appearance at this event to discuss industry development trends with peers and jointly propel the zinc industry to new heights. Click to sign up now, witness and participate in this momentous and far-reaching industry gathering, and together create a brilliant new chapter! Eagle Metal—Eagle Metal is one of the world’s major commodity traders. Established in 2000 and headquartered in Shanghai, China, the group has branches in Singapore, Hong Kong, Thailand and other locations. The group primarily engages in services and operations along the non-ferrous metals industry chain. Its business scope covers copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silver, platinum and palladium, copper concentrates, lead concentrates, zinc concentrates, and more. Business activities include domestic trade in multiple commodities and international import and export, with operations spanning mainland China, Singapore, Hong Kong, London, Chicago, Thailand, South America, Africa and other regions. In addition to its core business, the group provides upstream and downstream clients with integrated trade, warehouse financing, logistics and transportation, and other risk management services. Adhering to the business philosophy of “model innovation, win-win cooperation,” the company has established enduring and in-depth partnerships with numerous large domestic and international smelters, mines, trading enterprises, and well-known banks. It has also repeatedly received honors such as “Contract-honoring and Trustworthy Unit,” “Excellent Partner,” “Best Partner,” and “Most Valuable Customer” awarded by national and Shanghai municipal authorities. Eagle Metal – In the course of its development, Eagle Metal has upheld the corporate philosophy of "virtue carries all things, and constant dripping wears away the stone"; it has remained true to its original aspiration and persisted in innovation, fueling growth through innovation and advancing development through growth. Keeping pace with the global economy, it actively participates in competition both in and outside China. Through outstanding quality services, it enhances client value and corporate value, and with firm steps, it contributes all its strength to the advancement of the non-ferrous metal industry! Contact Information Zinc Business Contact: Miao Hanying 15021533905 Zinc Business Contact: Shi Yang 18004502057 Long press or scan the QR code to register now 2026 SMM Zinc Conference

The State Council Information Office held a press conference today (14th) to present China's foreign trade performance since the start of this year. It was introduced that in H1, China's foreign trade achieved double-digit growth and maintained a good momentum. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, imports and exports of related products showed strong momentum. In H1, imports and exports of computing hardware such as electronic components and computer parts totaled 5.13 trillion yuan, up 56.6%. Smart products like AI glasses, AI translators, and mechanical exoskeletons have been quickly iterating, with various innovative products constantly emerging. According to customs statistics, in H1 of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 25.47 trillion yuan, up 16.9% YoY. Specifically, exports were 14.73 trillion yuan, up 13.4% YoY, maintaining growth for 11 consecutive quarters; imports were 10.74 trillion yuan, up 22.1% YoY, outpacing exports by 8.7 percentage points. In June, imports and exports totaled 4.78 trillion yuan, up 24.2% YoY, maintaining growth for 17 consecutive months. Export side, the product structure further improved. In H1, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 9.36 trillion yuan, up 20.1%, accounting for 63.5% of total exports, up 3.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year. Exports of high-tech products reached 3.26 trillion yuan, up 39%. Import side, in H1, China's import growth outpaced exports by 8.7 percentage points, promoting balanced development of imports and exports. Within this, imports rose for energy and other bulk commodities (3.4%), mechanical and electrical products (28%), and agricultural products (8.6%). Trading partner side, China's diversified markets continued to consolidate. In H1, China's imports and exports to Belt and Road partner countries totaled 12.97 trillion yuan, up 14.8%, accounting for 50.9% of total foreign trade. Imports and exports to neighboring countries reached 9.44 trillion yuan, up 20.6%. Trade with Latin America, Africa, and the EU expanded by 16.2%, 19.6%, and 10.2%, respectively. Business entity side, all types of business entities in China maintained good growth momentum. Imports and exports by private enterprises reached 14.53 trillion yuan, up 17%, accounting for 57% of total foreign trade. Imports and exports by foreign-invested enterprises and state-owned enterprises grew by 17.1% and 16.8%, respectively. Wang Jun, Deputy Commissioner of the General Administration of Customs, introduced at the press conference held by the State Council Information Office: Overall, China's foreign trade achieved remarkable results in H1. Meanwhile, the current external environment remains complex and volatile. The World Bank believes that the global economy is facing pressures from rising energy prices, intensifying inflationary pressure, and expectations of monetary policy tightening, leading to a weakening growth outlook. IMF forecast data shows that world economic growth is expected to slow from 3.5% last year to 3% this year, and the growth rate of goods and services trade volume is also expected to slow from 5% last year to 3.5% this year. In H2, China’s foreign trade will face some pressure, but with strong innovation momentum, robust market vitality, and a high level of openness, the fundamentals of foreign trade will remain solid, and the positive momentum in foreign trade development is expected to continue. Based on data released by the General Administration of Customs, SMM compiled the import and export situation of selected products in the metals industry, as follows: Exports: Rare earth exports in June 2026 5,104.8 mt, down 34.1% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 30,482.8 mt, down 6.4% YoY vs January to June 2025. Steel exports in June 2026 10.32 million mt, up 6.6% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 5,487.4 mt, YoY down 5.6 % vs January to June 2025. Unwrought aluminum and aluminum semis exports in June 2026 711,000 mt, up 45.4% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative exports from January to June 2026 3.396 million mt, up 16.3% YoY vs January to June 2025. Imports: Iron ore and concentrates imports in June 2026 112.689 million mt, up 6.4% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 628.868 million mt, up 6.3% YoY vs January to June 2025. Copper ore and concentrates imports in June 2026 2.335 10kt, down 0.6% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 14.609 10kt, down 0.9% YoY vs January to June 2025 . Coal and lignite imports in June 2026 42.779 10kt, up 29.5% YoY vs June 2025 . Cumulative imports from January to June 2026 225.4 million mt, up 1.7% YoY vs January to June 2025 . In June 2026, rare earth imports reached 6,261.5 mt, down 25.3% YoY from June 2025 . In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 53,886.6 mt, down 6.1% YoY from January-June 2025. In June 2026, steel imports reached 441,000 mt, down 6.2% YoY from June 2025. In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 2.696 million mt, down 11.3% YoY from January-June 2025. In June 2026, imports of unwrought copper and copper semis reached 478,000 mt, up 3% YoY from June 2025 . In January-June 2026, cumulative imports totaled 2.491 million mt, down 5.3 % YoY from January-June 2025.

Published: Jul 14, 2026 - 3:56 AM (Kitco News) – Gold’s recent price decline reveals an important paradox: a stronger U.S. dollar can pressure gold prices in the short term while ultimately strengthening gold's long-term investment case, according to Paul Wong, managing partner and market strategist at Sprott Inc. In his latest in-depth monthly analysis of the gold market, Wong pointed out that spot gold lost $532.24 per ounce in June – nearly 12% – to finish the month at $4,008 for its fourth consecutive monthly loss. “June’s monthly decline was the largest since October 2008,” he noted. “For the quarter ended June 30, gold fell by $660.04, or -14.14%, the worst quarter since the second quarter of 2013, which is when the Federal Reserve (Fed) began its first rate-hiking cycle after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.” Wong said gold's latest and deepest monthly correction pushed market sentiment into extreme bearish territory. “The June selling wave in gold began with the signing of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran, which sent oil prices plummeting and the U.S. dollar rising,” he said. “The second selling wave was catalyzed by the market’s hawkish interpretation of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks after the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). This was Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Fed chair.” Wong said that rising rate hike expectations drove short-end yields higher, which served to further strengthen the U.S. dollar. “Most quant traders would have interpreted a U.S. dollar breakout combined with rising short-term rates as bearish for gold.” “Investment funds sold gold in the March to May period to unwind extremely leveraged positions,” he noted. “They continued selling during June as macro readings worsened and sovereign-related entities pulled back on gold buying. It was commodity trading advisors, quant and algo-type funds that predominantly drove the waterfall declines in June as they sold further or entered modest short positions.” “The drop in gold prices appears to be much more significant than the actual moves in the U.S. dollar and federal funds rates,” he added. “It suggests that much of the potential negative effects of a higher-rate, stronger-dollar combination have already been discounted.” Wong wrote that gold’s decline in the first half of 2026 matches previous periods of extreme bearish sentiment. “In June, gold fell below its 200-day moving average for the first time since October 2023 (see Figure 1) and has now reached extreme oversold levels,” he said. “Over the past decade, gold has tended to find support when prices fall to 90% of its 200-day moving average (Figure 1, lower panel). The drawdown has reached -26% (Figure 1, middle panel), the largest drawdown in a decade since the lows of 2016.” Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has increased by 2.91% year-to-date, while U.S. two-year Treasury yields have risen by 70 basis points year-to-date. “At the beginning of the year, fed funds futures were pricing in 2.3 rate cuts for the remainder of 2026,” Wong noted. “This has now shifted to 1.5 rate hikes due to the change in inflation expectations.” Wong said the emerging policy conflict at the Fed is one of the most significant narratives for markets. “One of the biggest questions facing markets today is whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is a hawk or a pragmatist,” he wrote. “Will he prioritize inflation control or accommodate the political and market pressures for lower interest rates? Warsh inherited an economy that remains surprisingly resilient. Labor markets are strong, growth is solid, asset prices are elevated, and inflation is still running well above the Fed’s 2% target. Simultaneously, President Trump has repeatedly called for lower rates. There is a tension between economic realities and political expectations.” Wong noted that the debate is now shifting from the expectation of rate cuts to potential rate hikes. “Warsh's inherited problem is that inflation never really died,” he said. “The economy has refused to slow, job openings remain elevated, payroll growth has surprised to the upside, consumer spending is healthy, and manufacturing and services activity continue to expand. Meanwhile, inflation remains sticky. Core PCE inflation8 is running around 3.3–3.4%, headline CPI inflation remains above 4%, and services inflation continues to prove difficult to tame.” “The AI buildout is also creating new inflationary pressures as memory shortages and rising component costs feed into consumer prices,” he added. “Investors are increasingly concerned that inflation may be more persistent than policymakers and markets expected.” But despite this persistent inflation, investors seem to doubt that Warsh will be genuinely hawkish on monetary policy. “Many continue to believe in the ‘Fed put,’ the idea that significant market weakness would eventually force policymakers to reverse course and lower rates,” Wong said. “Trump’s preferred outcome appears straightforward: lower rates, strong growth, rising equity markets and continued investment. The challenge is that the current economic backdrop does not clearly justify an easier policy. Warsh, therefore, finds himself caught between political demands for easier money and economic data that may argue for tighter policy. Maintaining Fed independence while navigating those pressures could prove challenging.” “The rising tension between inflation, politics and central bank credibility creates an environment that has historically supported gold,” Wong said. “Ultimately, the question is whether the Fed remains willing and able to prioritize price stability over political and market pressures. The answer to this question may prove far more important for gold than the precise path of interest rates over the next few quarters.” Wong also updated his analysis of another key market narrative: The cyclical strength of the U.S. dollar within a broader secular decline. “For years, we have maintained the view that the U.S. dollar is in long-term decline, not necessarily in exchange-rate terms, but in its purchasing power and role as the dominant store of monetary value,” he wrote. “Massive fiscal deficits, a rising debt burden, persistent monetary expansion, accelerating central bank gold purchases and increasing geopolitical fragmentation all point toward the gradual erosion of the U.S. dollar-centric system.” But the reality, Wong said, is more nuanced. “Despite repeated predictions of its demise, the dollar continues to stage powerful rallies periodically,” he said. “These rallies put pressure on commodities, precious metals, emerging markets and risk assets.” “Gold may be in a secular bull market, but it has also experienced sharp corrections alongside silver, copper, oil and other hard assets,” he warned. “A weakening monetary regime doesn't prevent powerful U.S. dollar rallies.” In order to understand this seeming contradiction, investors must separate two forces that are often lumped together. “The dollar remains structurally indispensable to global financial system settlements even as its long-term role as a monetary reserve slowly erodes,” Wong said. “In other words, the dollar may be experiencing secular decline, but it can still have powerful cyclical periods of strength for many years.” And every big U.S. dollar rally creates economic and financial stress for the rest of the world. “A stronger dollar increases debt-servicing costs for foreign borrowers, tightens global liquidity, raises funding costs and often forces traders to unwind leveraged positions and carry trades,” he said. “At the same time, dollar strength encourages central banks to diversify reserves. Countries increasingly seek to reduce dependency on a financial system that can be influenced and coerced by U.S. policy objectives. China has expanded the use of alternative settlement systems such as CIPS and mBridge, while many nations are exploring regional trade arrangements and various reserve diversification strategies.” Wong believes that gold is becoming the reserve asset of a new, multipolar world. “The paradox is that the stronger the U.S. dollar becomes, the greater the incentive for countries to find alternatives to it,” he said. “The most likely outcome is not the replacement of the dollar with a single reserve currency but the gradual emergence of a more diversified or multipolar system. The U.S. dollar may remain dominant in reserves and funding while other currencies gain influence in trade, regional currencies become more important, and gold acts as a neutral reserve asset between the various competing blocs. Hence, reserve managers seem focused on diversifying rather than replacing. They still need dollars; they just want fewer of them.” “Gold occupies a unique position in this evolving framework as it is ‘outside money,’” Wong wrote. “Unlike sovereign currencies, it carries no political allegiance. Unlike government bonds, it has no counterparty risk. Unlike bank deposits, it cannot be frozen or sanctioned if held domestically.” “As geopolitical tensions rise and reserve diversification accelerates, central banks increasingly view gold as a strategic reserve asset,” he said. “Its role is gradually evolving from an inflation hedge to a monetary hedge, a reserve asset and potentially a form of monetary collateral.” Wong noted that before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the IMF calculated that gold reserves averaged 12% of total world reserves since 2000, according to IMF data. “Since the freezing or seizure of Russia’s FX reserves and growing concerns of global currency and sovereign bond debasement, gold reserves as a percentage of total world reserves have soared to a recent high of ~34%, before closing the quarter at 27%,” he said. “The long-term secular trend of gold returning as a strategic reserve asset remains intact.” Wong also explored the counterintuitive reasons why gold seems to sell off during financial and liquidity crises. “Investors often expect turmoil to boost gold prices automatically, but history suggests otherwise,” he said. “During periods of acute funding stress, market participants need dollars. To obtain those dollars, they frequently sell their most liquid assets. Gold, as one of the world's most liquid and desired reserve assets, often serves as a source of liquidity. This occurred during the 2008 financial crisis and the March 2020 pandemic shock, and could occur again during future dollar squeezes. This does not represent a failure of gold. It is gold performing its reserve function.” Wong pointed out that even as gold continues its secular ascent as a reserve asset, the yellow metal’s shorter-term price movements remain beholden to the U.S. dollar. “Over the long run, gold and the dollar can rise for very different reasons: gold reflecting growing demand for a neutral reserve asset and store of value, and the dollar reflecting its central role in the global funding system,” he said. “However, on a cyclical basis, gold still tends to exhibit a negative correlation with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). As shown in Figure 3, gold's long-term trend remains firmly higher, but periods of dollar strength have frequently coincided with temporary corrections or consolidation phases in gold prices. This distinction between gold's secular monetary revaluation and its cyclical sensitivity to dollar liquidity conditions is critical for understanding short-term volatility within a longer-term bull market.” Wong cautioned that the U.S. dollar can remain strong even as long-term dollar dominance declines. “Likewise, gold could experience meaningful corrections while remaining in a secular bull market,” he said. “Periodic dollar rallies, tighter liquidity, commodity weakness and gold corrections drive the cyclical trend. The secular trend points toward reserve diversification, central bank gold purchases, alternative payment systems and a gradual decline in the dollar's share of global reserves.” And these two forces are not actually contradictory. “Each episode of dollar strength creates additional incentives for diversification, while each diversification effort reinforces gold's long-term monetary role,” Wong said. “Each episode may accelerate the transition toward a more diversified monetary system, one in which gold increasingly serves as the neutral reserve asset linking competing currency blocs.” Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-13/gold-becoming-reserve-asset-new-multipolar-world-sprotts-paul-wong

I. Key Points In H1 2026, nickel prices exhibited wide fluctuations characterized by a “rebound from lows—consolidation at highs—pullback and consolidation” pattern. The most-traded LME nickel contract surged from $14,000/mt at the beginning of the year to near $20,000 in May, before pulling back to $16,000-17,000 in July; the most-traded SHFE nickel contract climbed from 110,000 yuan/mt to above 150,000 yuan/mt, and then retreated to 125,000-130,000 yuan/mt. The driving logic of this market move was the intertwined resonance of three main themes: a shift in Indonesia’s resource policies, repeated fluctuations in global macro liquidity expectations, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on raw material costs. The center of nickel prices did rise compared to 2025, but the “shadow of surplus” has not dissipated. In H2 2026, the key variables for tracking nickel prices are as follows: First, the approval results of Indonesia’s RKAB quota revision in July. A significant increase in the quota would substantially narrow the supply deficit and weigh on nickel prices. Second, the Fed’s policy path — whether the hawkish signal from the June dot plot will persist — which affects the US dollar index and the valuation center of commodities. Third, sulphur supply and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which determines the cost support strength along the MHP–nickel sulphate–refined nickel chain. Fourth, demand from stainless steel and NEV ternary power batteries. Fifth, the pace of global visible inventory destocking. Sustained destocking would serve as a real support signal, while high inventories would limit price elasticity. Under a neutral scenario, LME nickel prices are expected to trade in the range of $15,500-17,500/mt in H2. II. Macro Environment – Reversal of Liquidity Expectations, Substantial Impact of Geopolitical Costs, and the ‘Dual Strength’ Pattern of the RMB 1. Fed Policy Path: ‘From Dovish to Hawkish’ At the beginning of the year, the market widely expected 50-100 bp of rate cuts in H1 2026, and the US dollar index fell below 97 at one point, creating a relatively loose liquidity environment. However, mid-year, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish stance surprised the market. The June meeting kept rates unchanged and the dot plot signaled a bias toward rate hikes, leading to a systematic revision of the previously priced “dovish delivery” logic. This directly weighed on the valuation of industrial metals such as nickel, serving as a key macro trigger for the nickel price decline in June. 2. Geopolitical Conflicts Expanded from ‘Safe-Haven Trades’ to ‘Real Cost Shocks’ The Middle East situation (tensions among the US, Israel and Iran, and disturbances in the Strait of Hormuz) not only pushed up energy and safe-haven premiums, but also, through the critical link of sulphur supply, directly raised the production cost of Indonesia’s MHP (each mt of MHP in metal content consumes about 10 mt of sulphur), forming the core driver of the pulse-like surge in nickel prices in May. After a ceasefire agreement was reached between the US and Iran in mid-June, energy and safe-haven premiums receded, leading to a peak and subsequent pullback in commodities, confirming the dual impact of geopolitical variables on nickel prices. 3. China’s Macroeconomy and RMB ‘Dual Strength’ Provide a Unique Offset Against a generally stronger US dollar, the onshore RMB bucked the trend, appreciating from 6.98 to 6.79 (a gain of about 2.9%). The relative strength of the RMB, with the exchange rate declining (USD/CNY fell), caused import costs to drop sharply, opening the import window and generating arbitrage profits. However, as large volumes of imported nickel flowed into the domestic market, the spot supply of nickel plates in China increased, accelerating the pace of inventory buildup and weighing on domestic prices. At the same time, LME nickel inventories decreased, leading to a repair of the SHFE/LME nickel price ratio, and the import window closed again in May. III. Indonesia's Industrial Policy—Systemic Transformation from "Expanding Capacity" to "Controlling the Chain to Raise Prices" In H1 2026, Indonesia's nickel industry policy completed a strategic shift, systematically deploying a policy package centered on "controlling supply, stabilizing prices, and enhancing resource added value," which became the core fundamental variable driving wide fluctuations in nickel prices. 1. Significant tightening of total RKAB quotas and tilted allocation structure At the beginning of the year, Indonesia's ESDM announced that the 2026 nickel ore quota would be drastically cut from 379 million wmt in 2025 to 270 million wmt. The world's largest single nickel mine project, WBN, saw its 2026 quota suffer a "cliff-like" reduction; its quota was exhausted in May, leading to full-scale production cuts and shutdowns, stoking persistent concerns over tight supply in H1. The Indonesian authorities have clarified that July 1 to 31, 2026 will be the mid-year application period for supplementary RKAB quotas, prioritizing compliant miners with integrated domestic downstream smelting capacity (such as supporting NPI or HPAL projects). The mid-year policy game over RKAB quotas is intensifying. 2. HPM pricing formula reform shifts from single nickel pricing to multi-element comprehensive pricing The new formula effective April 15 incorporates associated elements such as iron, cobalt, and chromium into the value component for the first time. Indonesia sought to recapture the undervalued value of associated resources into the pricing system, raising benchmark prices for nickel ore and intermediate products across the cost side. However, this reform met strong opposition from the domestic smelting industry, which argued that it would further squeeze smelting profits amid already surging sulfur and energy costs. 3. Indonesian government officially releases new export control regulations for ferronickel (FeNi) and NPI In July, Indonesia further strengthened export supervision of high-value-added nickel products under Finance Minister Regulation (KMK) No.32/MK/BC/2026 (implementing Trade Minister Regulation No.17/2026). The new regulation targets products under HS Code Ex.7202.60.00, including ferronickel (FeNi) ingots and lumps with nickel content ≥8%, sponge ferronickel (Sponge FeNi) and granular ferronickel (Nugget FeNi) with nickel content ≥4%, as well as low-grade ferronickel products with 2% ≤ Ni <4% and iron content ≥75% (covering some NPI products). Export requires a surveyor's report (LS) and relevant export licenses; from January 1, 2027, export will generally only be allowed through state-owned export enterprises (BUMN Ekspor), with exemptions under specific circumstances. Overall, Indonesia is currently tightening quotas, raising taxes and fees, and imposing export controls to elevate resource value, seeking to keep nickel prices within its officially recognized desired range ($19,000-20,000/mt) over the long term. On the other hand, it must balance stability of the industry chain and foreign investor confidence in actual implementation, thus exhibiting a game-like characteristic of "tight first then loose, adjusting while implementing."The extreme policy uncertainty was one of the core reasons behind the wide fluctuations in nickel prices in H1. IV. Changes in Nickel Intermediate Product Raw Materials: Restructuring of the Cost Transmission Chain 1. MHP and High-Grade Nickel Matte: A Dynamic Game Dominated by "Auxiliary Material Costs" There are three main production routes for nickel sulphate raw materials: MHP (hydrometallurgy): the dominant route with the largest long-term growth, but highly dependent on sulphur; high-grade nickel matte (pyrometallurgy RKEF conversion / oxygen-enriched side-blowing route): an alternative route with low dependence on sulphur and relatively stable cost elasticity; nickel briquette dissolution: the least economical, feasible only within specific price spread windows. The sharp fluctuations in sulphur prices in H1 reshaped the cost structure of the entire nickel industry chain. Producing one mt in metal content of MHP requires approximately 10 mt of sulphur, while tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupted Indonesia’s sulphur import channels, forcing Huayou Cobalt’s Huafei Nickel-Cobalt to cut production on some lines starting in May. Sulphur prices surged, with the SMM sulphur CIF Indonesia price peaking at $1,300/mt, and the cost shock was transmitted step by step along the “sulphur—MHP—nickel sulphate—electrodeposited nickel” chain, becoming one of the core drivers behind the rapid nickel price rise in May. The high-grade nickel matte route, relying on pyrometallurgy, is far less dependent on sulphur than MHP. Consequently, during the sulphur price spike, high-grade nickel matte’s cost advantage over MHP widened significantly, creating direct substitution pressure on MHP’s market share. In terms of production trends, Indonesia’s MHP production edged up about 0.02% YoY to 206,000 mt in metal content in January-June 2026. Over the same period, high-grade nickel matte posted the most impressive growth, with production up about 123% YoY to 185,000 mt in metal content, strengthening its position in the competition for nickel sulphate raw materials. In the medium and long term, however, once sulphur supply normalizes and MHP costs pull back, the MHP route, with its scale effects and relatively mature cost curve, will reclaim its dominant share of the nickel sulphate raw material market; after all, MHP projects’ capacity base is far larger than that of high-grade nickel matte, and its cobalt by-product also provides a substantial marginal revenue contribution (about $4,500/mt Ni). 2. Production Capacity Switching Game Between High-Grade Nickel Matte and NPI High-grade nickel matte and NPI share the same RKEF production lines and laterite nickel ore resources, differing only in whether a sulphidation conversion stage is added at the end. The conversion decision is essentially a profit-maximization problem: when the marginal revenue of high-grade nickel matte relative to NPI covers the additional equipment and process losses of sulphidation conversion, lines switch to high-grade nickel matte; otherwise, they tend toward NPI. The conversion profit chart shows that profit for NPI-to-high-grade-nickel-matte conversion appeared only in April-May. After MHP production cuts in May, the monthly nickel sulphate raw material deficit was about 8,000 mt Ni, theoretically requiring increased high-grade nickel matte production to fill. However, due to RKAB quota constraints and the continued decline in NPI feed grade, integrated enterprises prioritized supplying stainless steel, making it difficult for high-grade nickel matte to offset the MHP raw material shortfall. This was a key reason why nickel sulphate prices remained firm even after refined nickel prices fell sharply in May. 5. Refined Nickel Supply-Demand Pattern: High Inventory vs. Structural Tightness Expectations 1. Supply Side: Electrodeposited Nickel Capacity Continues to Expand, Production Hits Repeated Records The most certain trend on the supply side is the sustained release of electrodeposited nickel capacity and production in China and Indonesia. According to SMM data, from January to June 2026, China’s refined nickel production was 215,000 mt, a YoY growth rate of 9%; Indonesia’s refined nickel production was 56,000 mt, a YoY growth rate of 97%. Meanwhile, at the beginning of 2026, China’s refined nickel trade pattern underwent a temporary reversal. Previously, benefiting from the explosion in electrodeposited nickel capacity, China had once been expanding its net exports of refined nickel. However, entering Q1 2026, as the price spread between Chinese and overseas markets opened up and the import arbitrage window was activated, China turned back into a net importer of refined nickel, with net imports exceeding 80,000 mt in January-April. 2. Demand Side: New Energy Recovery, Stainless Steel Support, and Steady Alloy & Special Steel In H1 2026, stainless steel, the largest downstream application of nickel, maintained mild growth. Total stainless steel production in China and Indonesia from January to June was approximately 23 million mt, up about 2% YoY. Steel mills maintained relatively high operating rates throughout H1, with stable apparent consumption. In the new energy (ternary battery) sector, nickel demand saw a strong recovery. From January to June, China’s ternary cathode precursor production was 528,000 mt, up 32% YoY; ternary cathode material production was 493,000 mt, up 40% YoY. Alloy & special steel and electroplating, although accounting for a relatively low share of total primary nickel consumption, played a critical role in refined nickel demand in H1 due to their irreplaceability. From January to June, China’s total refined nickel demand was approximately 140,000 mt, up 9% YoY. Military and aerospace demand strengthened, while high-end manufacturing demand remained steady with moderate growth. 3. Inventory Side: Global Visible Inventory Remains at Historical Highs Despite wild swings in nickel prices in H1, global visible nickel inventory remained at relatively high historical levels. LME nickel inventory fluctuated in the range of 270,000-280,000 mt for an extended period. China’s social inventory and exchange warrants experienced significant buildup. As of July, SMM refined nickel social inventory reached 130,000 mt, with total global inventory hitting a high of 497,000 mt. High visible inventory posed a significant constraint on nickel price rises. In June, after digesting supply disruption narratives, the market refocused on the fundamental reality of “high inventory and lackluster demand,” and nickel prices pulled back from a temporary high to around $16,100/mt. 6. H2 2026 Risk Alerts and Nickel Price Forecasts Based on the logic of H1, nickel price trends in H2 are expected to maintain a fundamental pattern dominated by policy gaming, with macro factors amplifying volatility. The following variables merit close monitoring: 1. The final outcome of the RKAB quota revision approval in Indonesia in July; 2. whether the US Fed's policy path in H2 will continue its hawkish stance; 3. whether sulfur supply can substantially return to normal, and whether there is a risk of repeated disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz situation; 4. whether end-use demand from stainless steel and new energy sectors can show a substantial improvement; 5. the destocking pace of global visible inventory. Based on the above price influencing factors, a scenario analysis for nickel prices is conducted: Bearish scenario (quotas being more accommodative than expected): quota increase ≥30% + sulfur pullback + high inventory pressure → LME nickel $14,000—$16,000/mt. Neutral scenario (highest probability): quota slightly increased but still tight + sulfur consolidates at highs → LME nickel $15,500—$17,500/mt. Bullish scenario (tight quotas + secondary cost surge): quotas continue to tighten + export controls + repeated geopolitical tensions push up sulfur → LME nickel $17,000—$19,000/mt.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SHFE Nickel Stops Falling but Fails to Change SS Weakness, Guidance Price Cut Drags Down Stainless Steel Spot Prices According to SMM on July 9, SS futures further pulled back and declined. Although SHFE nickel strengthened and rose, SS remained under pressure from capital flows and continued to decline. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,355 yuan/mt. In the spot market, driven by the consecutive decline in SS futures, a mainstream stainless steel mill cut its guidance price, leading spot quotes to follow suit and decline. Against a backdrop of persistently weak overall market sentiment, transactions remained sluggish. SS Futures Most-Traded Contract: At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was at 14,375 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 545 to 1,095 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained stable; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, quotes in Wuxi were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. This week, the tug-of-war between macro and industrial logic dominated the market trend. US inflation data pulled back, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, and the US dollar index weakened, collectively lifting the valuations of commodities and nonferrous metals and providing macro support for the metal sector. However, industrial sentiment remained persistently bearish. The issue of Indonesia's nickel ore supplementary quotas remained unresolved, and the market held strong expectations for ample nickel supply in the future...

I. Weekly Price Review The antimony market continued its downward trend this week, with prices weakening further. The average price of #1 antimony ingot was 110,500 yuan/mt on July 6, falling to 109,500 yuan/mt by July 8, a weekly decline of approximately 1%. The average price of 99.8% antimony trioxide was around 95,500 yuan/mt, dropping below the 100,000 yuan/mt mark, extending its week-over-week decline. Prices showed no clear signs of stopping their fall and stabilizing, with market sentiment staying bearish. II. Market Supply Conditions Supply side, total mining quotas for antimony ore remained tightly restricted, and capacity at small and medium mines was exiting the market at an accelerated pace. With no major new mines entering production globally, supply-side elasticity was limited. However, due to the impact of recent months' imported ore, actual raw material availability in the market was relatively ample. On the import front, China's antimony ore and concentrates imports reached 48,658.88 mt, January-May 2026, surging more than 20-fold YoY (+202.39%), compared to only 16,091.65 mt in the same period last year. Import sources became more diversified: Thailand and Myanmar maintained their traditional major roles, while Spain emerged as a new major source for the first time (4,715.7 mt in April alone). However, its declared unit price of $2,402.58/mt was significantly lower than those from Thailand ($7,474/mt) and Myanmar ($7,628/mt), which was widely seen in the market as low-grade ore or trader resale activity, casting doubt on its sustainability. Market participants also widely viewed these anomalies in the import data as difficult to sustain, with the marginal pressure from imports on the market expected to gradually ease in H2. III. Changes in Exports and Imports Export side, under strict enforcement of controls, the overall picture showed zero exports of unwrought antimony alongside a continued sharp contraction in antimony trioxide exports on a YoY basis. The specific data is shown in the table below: Product Jan-May 2026 Same Period 2025 YoY Change Antimony Ore & Concentrates Imports 48,658.88 mt 16,091.65 mt +202.39% Unwrought Antimony Exports 0 mt 247 mt -100% Antimony Trioxide Exports 1,878 mt 4,563.6 mt -58.85% In terms of export destinations, antimony trioxide exports had shifted markedly from traditional markets such as the US and Europe to emerging destinations including Russia, Thailand, and Turkey. On the policy front, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice on June 24, 2026, that improved the mechanism for reporting and handling violations of export control regulations on dual-use items related to strategic minerals, covering six core strategic commodities including antimony, with no easing of export control policies in sight. 4. End-Use Demand Status Demand in the PV glass industry remains in a cyclical weak phase. Recently, industry orders have continued to weaken, and multiple producers have initiated or planned production halts for maintenance. Affected by this, enterprises are only maintaining essential restocking in procurement of sodium pyroantimonate, with minimal new purchase demand. On the flame retardant side, as bromine prices pull back, in sectors like electronics and electrical appliances where stringent requirements for both flame retardant performance and cost exist, the bromine-antimony synergistic system remains irreplaceable, so orders have slightly improved compared to the earlier period, and procurement volumes have rebounded slightly. In the short term, affected by the continuing PV off-season and inertial bearish sentiment, antimony prices may still test lower levels, but the downside room is narrowing, and cost support is beginning to emerge. Market confidence is also recovering. Currently, the market generally views 100,000 yuan/mt as the key support level for this round of decline, with strong bottom support. It is expected that the pace of decline in antimony prices will slow down in Q3.