This week, the weekly operating rate of leading downstream aluminum processing enterprises in China rebounded 1.1 percentage points MoM to 64%.

SMM News, March 27: The most-traded SHFE lead 2605 contract opened at 16,390 yuan/mt during the day. Boosted by broad-based gains across nonferrous metals, the price continued to fluctuate upward, hitting a high of 16,570 yuan/mt before pulling back somewhat. It then consolidated narrowly in the 16,520-16,555 yuan/mt range and finally closed at 16,555 yuan/mt, posting a small bullish candlestick, up 95 yuan/mt, or 0.58%. On the supply side, deliverable primary lead inventory for primary lead fell MoM, and reduced circulating cargo supported premiums in quotations; secondary lead smelters mostly held strong wait-and-see sentiment, with few spot quotes, while limited cargo was quoted at slight premiums. On the demand side, downstream purchasing sentiment was mixed, with both wait-and-see sentiment and purchasing as needed, and transactions were average. As the resumption of production at secondary lead smelters accelerates, expectations for increased spot secondary lead supply are strong, but downstream purchases for rigid demand remain limited, and lead prices are expected to remain in the doldrums. Data source disclaimer: Except for publicly available information, all other data is processed and derived by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database models, and is for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

It was learned that the weekly composite operating rate of SMM lead-acid battery enterprises across five provinces was 73.92% from March 20 to March 26, 2026, basically stable WoW. As it was late March, aside from some large lead-acid battery enterprises reporting moderate orders and production line operating rates at full capacity, other small and medium-sized enterprises said that the traditional consumption off-season from April to May was approaching, and producers mainly produced based on sales. At present, the SHFE/LME price ratio for lead remained high, and lead-acid battery costs were higher than those in markets outside China. Coupled with constraints from tariffs, geopolitics, and other factors, orders for export-oriented enterprises in particular were hindered, leaving factory production lines underutilized. If subsequent orders continued to weaken, operating rates would be lowered again.

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2604 contract opened at 84,590 yuan/mt. After the daytime session opened, it touched a low of 83,920 yuan/mt. Following the opening, the center kept rising, and during the afternoon session it touched a high of 85,490 yuan/mt, before finally closing at 84,840 yuan/mt, up 0.7%. Open interest stood at 1,868 lots, down 468 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 1,952 lots, down 2,118 lots from the previous trading day. On the macro front, US President Trump again extended by 10 days the deadline he had set for not attacking Iran’s energy facilities, saying that talks with Iran were “going very smoothly,” which eased market concerns over a prolonged conflict. Fundamentally, imported cargoes continued to arrive, while arrivals of domestic cargoes remained stable, leaving overall supply ample. Demand side, affected by the pullback in copper prices, downstream buyers mainly maintained just-in-time procurement. The SHFE copper 2604 contract closed at 95,950 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2604 contract price of 84,840 yuan/mt, its tax-inclusive price was 95,869 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2604 contract and BC copper was 81 yuan/mt, and the spread remained in contango structure, narrowing somewhat from the previous day.

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Technical Recovery Coupled with Expectations of a Temporary Easing in Geopolitical Tensions Drives a Rebound in Tin Prices]

SMM Nickel, March 27: Macro and Market News: (1) On March 26 local time, multiple US officials and informed sources revealed that the US Department of Defense was formulating a so-called "final blow" military option against Iran, and the relevant plans may include the deployment of ground forces and large-scale airstrike operations. (2) In response to US President Trump saying that he would visit China in mid-May, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a regular press conference on March 26 that head-of-state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic guiding role in China-US relations, and the two sides have remained in communication regarding President Trump's visit to China. Spot Market: On March 27, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel fell by 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average price premium of Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 4,900 yuan/mt, down 500 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; spot premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China were -600-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) maintained rangebound fluctuations and closed the morning session at 137,010 yuan/mt today, up 0.01%. Policy expectations that Indonesia may impose a nickel export tax, together with firm ore prices on the raw material side and easing macro sentiment, jointly drove nickel prices higher. Nickel prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Cost and Demand in a Tug-of-War, ADC12 Under Short-Term Pressure] Spot side, yesterday the ADC12 market remained in the doldrums, with mainstream enterprises generally lowering quotations by 100–200 yuan/mt. Currently, demand remains weak, with insufficient order follow-through, while downstream procurement is mainly driven by rigid demand, and wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong. Meanwhile, affected by poor orders, enterprises faced greater shipment pressure, low-priced cargo gradually increased, market competition intensified, and the price center moved downward passively. Overall, as demand has yet to show any clear improvement, ADC12 prices will remain under pressure, with weak short-term fluctuations likely to dominate.

[SMM Zinc Morning Comment: China’s Zinc Ingot Continued Destocking on Thursday, and the Center of SHFE Zinc Edged Higher] Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2605 contract opened at 23,100 yuan/mt. After the opening, SHFE zinc fluctuated upward, touching a high of 23,340 yuan/mt near the beginning of the session. It then slowly pulled back amid fluctuations to around the daily average line, hitting a low of 23,070 yuan/mt, and finally closed up at 23,170 yuan/mt..

Silver has seen one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent years within just a few weeks. From the high of US$97.30 on March 2, the price fell to US$61.21 by March 23, losing around 37%. For the market, this was an abrupt break from the previous momentum.

SMM Nickel News, March 26: Macro and Market News: (1) On March 25, COSCO SHIPPING Lines issued a service notice announcing the immediate resumption of new bookings for services from the Far East to the following Middle East countries (dry containers): the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. The resumption of shipments did not mean that COSCO SHIPPING container vessels could pass through the Strait of Hormuz. (2) In the early hours of March 25, Tehran time, Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations said in a statement on social media that non-hostile vessels could safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with relevant Iranian authorities, provided that the countries to which they belong or with which they are associated neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran, and fully comply with the announced safety and security regulations. Spot Market: On March 26, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 1,550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 5,400 yuan/mt, down 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel was at -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) opened sharply higher in last night's session and then fluctuated downward, closing the morning session today at 135,250 yuan/mt, up 0.50%. Policy expectations that Indonesia may impose a nickel export tax, together with firm ore prices on the raw material side and easing macro sentiment, jointly drove nickel prices to rebound. Nickel prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.