[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, after the Two Sessions concluded, operating rates at coke producers increased somewhat, and shipments improved. Inventory pressure eased for most coke producers, with supply remaining stable while increasing slightly. Demand side, blast furnaces in Hebei resumed operations and production, and hot metal production is expected to increase. In addition, steel mill profits improved somewhat, and finished steel shipments picked up, boosting steel mills' production enthusiasm and strengthening their purchase willingness for coke. Overall, coke fundamentals improved, but the market remains in a wait-and-see mode, and the coke market may remain stable in the short term.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief Review] In terms of supply, coking costs increased and losses widened somewhat. At present, coke producers were barely maintaining normal operating rates, while coke production remained temporarily stable. Meanwhile, downstream demand for coke increased, and coke producers' shipments improved somewhat. On the demand side, steel mills were in an active phase of resuming production, while finished steel prices fluctuated upward and steel mill profitability improved somewhat, boosting production enthusiasm and increasing demand for coke. In summary, the fundamentals of coke supply and demand developed in a positive direction, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SS Futures Continued to Pull Back, Stainless Steel Spot Quotes Were Lowered SMM News on March 19: SS futures extended their further downward pullback. Against the backdrop of hawkish remarks from the US Fed and escalating geopolitical conflicts, non-ferrous metal futures generally moved lower, with SS also declining in tandem and closing at 13,935 yuan/mt by the midday break. In the spot market, continued declines in SS futures significantly weakened market confidence; coupled with the recent pullback in high-grade NPI prices, market expectations for cost support also softened. In a market where transactions had already been sluggish this week, inquiries and deals weakened further; in addition, March supply remained high, prompting traders to lower their quotes for 304 stainless steel during the day. However, supported by news yesterday that steel mills were holding prices firm, 200-series stainless steel rose against the trend, with 201 stainless steel prices moving higher. Further attention should still be paid to downstream end-user purchase conditions. The most-traded SS futures contract fell and pulled back. As of 10:15 a.m., SS2605 was quoted at 13,930 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the range of 340-540 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi rose 50 yuan/mt; for cold-rolled trim-edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi fell 150 yuan/mt and in Foshan fell 50 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi fell 200 yuan/mt; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, Wuxi quotes fell 100 yuan/mt; cold-rolled 430/2... in both Wuxi and Foshan.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, coking costs at coke producers increased, profit per mt of coke narrowed somewhat, and coke producer inventories still needed to be drawn down, weighing on their production enthusiasm. However, downstream demand improved somewhat, and coke producers were actively making shipments. Demand side, the country's important meetings have concluded, and blast furnaces previously subject to production restrictions resumed production one after another, increasing rigid demand for coke. However, uncertainty still remained in finished steel consumption, and most steel mills remained cautious in their coke procurement. In summary, the supply-demand imbalance in the coke market eased somewhat, and cost support strengthened. In the short term, the coke market may temporarily remain stable.

[Weak Market Sentiment Weighed on Both Spot Silicon Metal and Polysilicon Prices]: This week, the silicon metal market moved lower after a stalemate, with weak market sentiment, some downstream procurement demand released, and cautious trading sentiment. SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon stood at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, down 100 yuan/mt WoW. At the beginning of the week, silicon metal market prices remained in a stalemate, while the most-traded contract fluctuated around 8,550-8,750 yuan/mt, with downstream procurement mainly focused on factory cargoes. Later, affected by macro factors and capital sentiment, futures prices declined continuously and closed at 8,285 yuan/mt on Thursday. As spot-futures traders' price advantages became apparent, shipments increased, downstream procurement sentiment diverged, and the market saw transactions based on immediate needs.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Briefing] Polysilicon: The quoted price for N-type recharging polysilicon was 42-49 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices continued to decline recently, mainly affected by wafer price cuts and market sentiment. At present, low-priced polysilicon has already fallen below the cost line of some manufacturers, and the willingness to hold quotes firm has strengthened somewhat. The upstream market was also still watching wafer price moves. Wafer: In the market, 18X wafer prices were 1.00-1.05 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 1.1-1.15 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.3-1.35 yuan/piece. Wafer prices remained stable. Current selling prices have already fallen below cash cost, so the likelihood of another sharp price cut was relatively small.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, as the Two Sessions ended, coke producers previously subject to production restrictions gradually resumed production. With losses per mt of coke remaining within an acceptable range, production enthusiasm was moderate, and coke supply increased steadily. On the demand side, as the country's important meetings ended, steel mills previously subject to production restrictions were expected to resume production, leading to some increase in coke demand. However, as no clearly positive policies emerged from the Two Sessions, market wait-and-see sentiment remained strong, and steel mills maintained a cautious attitude toward coke, mainly purchasing as needed. In summary, the coke market may remain temporarily stable in the short term.

SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Overnight, LME copper opened at $12,714.5/mt and climbed to $12,715/mt at the start of the session. Copper prices then saw the center move straight downward, before fluctuating rangebound and eventually closing at $12,340/mt, down 3.44%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 288,300 lots, down 4,872 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to long position liquidation. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2605 contract opened at and touched a high of 98,000 yuan/mt, after which the center of copper prices moved straight downward to a low of 95,920 yuan/mt, then fluctuated upward and finally closed at 96,340 yuan/mt, down 2.58%. Trading volume reached 103,000 lots, and open interest stood at 198,000 lots, up 9,911 lots from the previous trading day, mainly due to increased short positions.

News dated March 18, 2026: Today, the average warrant price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $47/mt (price range: $42-52/mt); the average B/L price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $46/mt (price range: $41-51/mt); the average EQ copper (CIF B/L) price was unchanged from the previous trading day, closing at $25/mt (price range: $19-31/mt), with quotations referenced to cargoes arriving from late March to mid-April. Intraday, the SHFE/LME price ratio premium showed no significant fluctuations, and market transactions remained active. It was heard that a small volume of pyrometallurgy B/L arriving in late March was quoted at $50-60/mt, QP April; EQ B/L for late March and early April was offered at $35, and EQ B/L arriving in mid-to-late April was quoted at $35/mt, QP May. Ordinary ER copper warrants for delivery within this week were quoted at $50/mt, QP April.

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] During the day, the SHFE copper 2604 contract extended its decline, with the trading range falling further to 95,500-96,000 yuan/mt. The center of copper prices kept moving lower, significantly stimulating downstream enterprises' demand to buy the dip and restock, while spot market trading sentiment clearly recovered. Demand side, according to SMM, most downstream enterprises saw a surge in order volumes, with a substantial increase from the previous period, and end-user cargo pick-up enthusiasm also improved in tandem. The pullback in copper prices became more attractive to enterprises, and purchase willingness to buy the dip was strong. Suppliers held prices firm accordingly, driving a notable rebound in spot premiums in early trading. Supply side, social inventory destocked sharply by 24,200 mt from Monday, and the pace of destocking accelerated. The rebound in spot premiums raised suppliers' willingness to sell, leading to more warrants flowing into the market. As premiums reached the psychological expectations of some suppliers, selling of spot warrants began to emerge, easing the previously tight spot supply situation and causing spot premiums to decline later. Overall, current copper prices have become more attractive to downstream enterprises, and faster destocking supports the spot market, but suppliers' selling at high levels combined with changes in the price spread between futures contracts structure put pressure on premiums. Under the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, Shanghai spot copper is expected to remain in a tug-of-war pattern tomorrow, with premiums likely to stay in the discount range.