Refined Cobalt: This week, spot refined cobalt prices generally fluctuated around 430,000 yuan/mt. During the week, prices briefly surged on news of procurement by overseas traders and export controls in the DRC, but later pulled back into the fluctuation range as macro sentiment weakened and downstream procurement follow-through proved insufficient. In terms of supply, ex-factory prices at mainstream smelters remained stable, traders' spot-futures price spread quotations were steady, and there were no significant changes in the structure of cargoes circulating in the market. In terms of demand, affected by weak cost pass-through, downstream enterprises still showed low acceptance of high-priced raw materials and only maintained a pace of just-in-time stockpiling, with no significant increase seen in actual transactions. Fundamentally, the DRC's export control policy further increased uncertainty over cobalt intermediate products exports, while the pattern of structural tightness in China's raw material supply remained unchanged, continuing to provide bottom support for cobalt prices. Cobalt Intermediate Products: This week, cobalt intermediate product prices continued to hold steady, and the market remained in a pattern of "prices quoted but no trading." In terms of supply, the impact of the DRC's export control policy continued to unfold, market concerns over whether miners could ship smoothly intensified, suppliers' bullish expectations heated up, and they continued to withhold quotations, leaving extremely scarce spot cargoes available in the market. In terms of demand, although smelters still had willingness to procure raw materials, constrained by cobalt salt prices that struggled to catch up, and with downstream orders yet to become clear, enterprises maintained a cautious wait-and-see stance, and actual transactions remained sluggish. Overall, ongoing disruptions in the DRC's export process continued to cast doubt on the timing of bulk arrivals at port, and the structurally tight raw material situation in China may further intensify. Once downstream orders are gradually finalized and procurement demand restarts, intermediate product prices are still expected to have upward momentum. Close attention should be paid to the progress of DRC exports and the pace of downstream demand recovery. Cobalt Sulphate: This week, spot cobalt sulphate prices continued to remain stable. In terms of supply, supported by tight raw materials, most smelters held firm on quotations in the range of 95,000-98,000 yuan/mt. During the week, the DRC's export control document strengthened traders' expectations for a rise in future cobalt salt prices, and low-priced shipments in the market decreased significantly. In terms of demand, most enterprises remained concerned about future orders, and with their own raw material inventory relatively sufficient, they prioritized inventory consumption and only maintained sporadic just-in-time procurement, mainly at low prices. Overall, the market remained in the inventory digestion stage in the short term, with continued bargaining between sellers and buyers, and prices were mainly driven by rangebound adjustments. However, the DRC raw material supply issue has yet to be resolved, and cost support still exists. Once downstream inventories are depleted and procurement restarts, cobalt sulphate prices are expected to regain upward momentum.

This week, the second-life application market operated steadily overall, with prices remaining stable. Cost side, influenced by the recovery in market sentiment after the holiday, spot lithium carbonate prices have been climbing continuously since the Chinese New Year holiday, showing a sharp upward trend, which has imposed certain cost pressures on second-life battery cells. Meanwhile, prices for nickel and cobalt salts remained stable, causing no additional disturbances to the cost side. Currently, both supply and demand are in a transitional phase just after the Chinese New Year holiday, with overall market activity relatively low. Supply side, most enterprises have not yet fully resumed full-capacity operations, and the willingness to sell remains relatively weak, leading to generally tight availability of spot cargo in the market. Demand side, directly impacted by the current high fluctuations in lithium chemical prices, downstream enterprises have generally adopted a cautious purchasing mindset, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing. Additionally, most enterprises in the market still hold a certain amount of inventory, sufficient to support daily production and operational needs, which is expected to last until around the Lantern Festival.

The Co3O4 market started the week on a stable note, with top-tier enterprises maintaining their offers at a high level of 370,000 yuan per mt, demonstrating strong confidence in holding prices firm. No transactions were observed in the market so far. Supply side, the tight inventory of cobalt intermediate products as raw materials remained unresolved, and smelters relied on externally purchased cobalt salt and recycled materials to sustain production, keeping cost support robust. Demand side, performance was relatively mediocre, as downstream cathode material enterprises mainly consumed their pre-holiday stockpiling. Market activity is expected to improve significantly in March, with prices likely to rise further.

I. Cobalt Price Review During Chinese New Year During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday (February 15 to February 23), domestic refined cobalt electronic night session trading saw prices rebound slightly from previous lows. The spot market was relatively sluggish due to logistics suspensions. Overseas prices showed divergence: the low end of standard-grade refined cobalt remained stable, while the high end increased by $0.1/lb; both low and high ends of alloy-grade refined cobalt rose by $0.3/lb and $0.4/lb, respectively. CIF China cobalt hydroxide prices remained stable. II. Market Dynamics Cuba's fuel shortage will force Sherritt to suspend its nickel-cobalt operations: Due to ongoing tight fuel supply in Cuba, Sherritt International Corp. plans to suspend mining and processing operations at its Moa nickel-cobalt joint project and has already scaled down operations ahead of schedule, with suspension expected in the short term. Planned maintenance will be conducted during the shutdown. Failure to secure fuel deliveries is the direct cause of the suspension; the company is communicating with relevant parties and evaluating alternative input sources. The project, in partnership with state-owned General Nickel Company SA, typically ships semi-finished products to a refinery in Alberta, Canada, which has an integrated capacity of approximately 38,200 mt. However, this production accounts for a relatively small share of global nickel supply, so the impact on the international market is limited, though it will affect the company's finances and Cuba's economy. Meanwhile, Energas SA, an energy joint venture in which Sherritt holds a one-third stake, continues normal operations, supplying natural gas for power generation to Cuba's power grid, unaffected by this incident. Overall, the suspension reflects the direct constraints of Cuba's long-term economic and energy crisis on industrial projects. Sumitomo's Madagascar nickel-cobalt project shuts down due to cyclone damage: Japan's Sumitomo Corporation stated on February 18 that its Ambatovy nickel-cobalt project in Madagascar was shut down after Tropical Cyclone Ghezani hit the island last week, causing facility damage. Operations were suspended immediately once signs of the cyclone became apparent, with safety as the top priority, the company said in a statement. It added that a detailed assessment of the damage, including equipment conditions and the impact on revenue, is currently underway. Sumitomo will work to identify the extent of the losses as soon as possible and collaborate with relevant parties to implement appropriate recovery and reconstruction measures, the statement added. A company spokesperson said the timeline for restarting operations is undetermined and assessing the extent of the damage is expected to take several weeks. Ambatovy is owned by Sumitomo, with state-owned Korea Mine Rehabilitation and Mineral Resources Corp (KOMIR) producing approximately 28,000 mt of nickel and about 2,500 mt of cobalt in 2024. III. Post-Holiday Outlook Supply side, cobalt raw materials from the DRC are still unable to be replenished in the short term, and enterprises are facing pressure from raw material shortages. Coupled with production halts at some enterprises during the Chinese New Year holiday, production plans have been reduced. Refined cobalt production in February is expected to remain low, and the overall supply of cobalt salts is projected to decline slightly. Demand side, prior to the Chinese New Year, some downstream ternary cathode precursor enterprises showed increased purchase willingness and active inquiries due to concerns about rising cobalt sulphate prices after the holiday. However, as logistics were about to halt at that time, actual transactions were relatively limited. With the resumption of logistics after the holiday and downstream enterprises gradually resuming production and restocking, demand is expected to be gradually released. Looking ahead, against the backdrop of continued support from raw material costs, phased tightening of supply, and phased recovery in demand, refined cobalt and cobalt salt prices are expected to resume an upward trend.

The overall Co3O4 market operated steadily, with top-tier enterprises maintaining their offers at 370,000 yuan/mt. Market transactions showed significant divergence by product voltage grade: high-voltage products traded in the range of 365,000–370,000 yuan/mt, while low-voltage product prices settled between 360,000–365,000 yuan/mt. On the supply side, although top-tier integrated enterprises ensured stable product supply, their cobalt intermediate product raw material inventory had become tight, and the proportion of externally purchased cobalt salt continued to rise. On the demand side, the market exhibited the characteristic of "stable long-term contracts and scarce spot orders," with downstream procurement primarily focused on fulfilling long-term contracts, and limited new spot demand. Prices are expected to remain largely stable and hold steady at highs before the Chinese New Year.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the world’s top cobalt supplier (over 70% of global 2024 supply), imposed 2025 export bans/quotas, roiling cobalt prices. With large-scale exports unresumed, the U.S. launched "Project Vault" to secure critical minerals, adding DRC supply uncertainties and heightening geopolitical risks for Chinese cobalt procurement.

SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary: This week, the spot price of refined cobalt maintained a fluctuating trend. On the supply side, due to the slightly lower economic efficiency of refined cobalt production, the operating rate of smelters remained low, resulting in a slight decline in the supply of refined cobalt. On the demand side, influenced by the policy-related news from the DRC, some smelters and traders reported an increased willingness of downstream producers to inquire about prices. However, currently, most buyers and sellers are still in the negotiation stage, and overall market transactions remain weak. It is expected that before the official implementation of the policy, the spot price of refined cobalt will likely continue to fluctuate.

[SMM Weekly Review of Lithium Battery Recycling Market: The spot market for used lithium batteries remained unfavorable this week (June 3-6, 2025)] This week, prices of products such as lithium chemicals and cobalt salts continued to decline, while nickel salt prices remained stable. Coefficients for products like ternary and LCO black mass also continued to fall this week. For LFP pole piece black mass, the lithium prices per % lithium were 2,250-2,400 yuan/mtu, and for LFP battery black mass, they were 2,050-2,200 yuan/mtu. Taking ternary black mass as an example: Currently, the nickel-cobalt coefficient for ternary pole piece black mass is 74-76%, and the lithium coefficient is 70-72%; for ternary battery black mass, the nickel-cobalt coefficient is 70-72%, and the lithium coefficient is 68-72%. Most enterprises in the market have begun to price based on different coefficients. On the demand side, most hydrometallurgy plants have chosen to operate at a semi-shutdown status amid the continuous decline in nickel, cobalt, and lithium salt prices. Most ternary and LFP hydrometallurgy plants have reduced their procurement volumes this month, only consuming basic inventory. Due to the market's pessimistic outlook on subsequent lithium salt prices, they are cautious about purchasing LFP black mass, resulting in very sluggish market transactions. Currently, procurement in May has decreased by approximately 15-20% MoM, and June is expected to remain basically flat. On the supply side, the psychological selling prices of grinding mills and traders have loosened somewhat due to the continuous decline in salt prices and the sentiment surrounding them. Black mass prices have generally followed the downward trend of salt prices, but the rate of decline remains slower than that of salt prices. Additionally, some grinding mills, as their current profit margins from black mass production are still below the surplus line, have chosen to hold back from selling, waiting for a subsequent market recovery. Market transactions are sluggish, and procurement volumes in June are expected to remain stable or slightly decrease MoM from April. On the cost side, currently, except for the top...

SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary: This week, the spot price of refined cobalt has slightly declined. Supply side, the quotes from mainstream traders have shown a slight downward trend. Due to the relatively low economic efficiency of refined cobalt production, the operating rate of smelters remains low, leading to a slight decrease in the supply of refined cobalt. Currently, the market is still digesting social inventory. Demand side, downstream producers continue to maintain a just-in-time procurement pace, and there has been no significant stockpiling. Overall, buying interest in the market remains weak. It is expected that the spot price of refined cobalt will continue to fluctuate this week.

SMM News on June 6: This week, various cobalt products in the market continued to "fall endlessly". The spot quotes for Co3O4 fell sharply, with most smelters lowering their quotes to facilitate sales. Some low-price transactions led to a drop of 7,650 yuan/mt in Co3O4 prices within a single week... SMM has compiled the price changes of cobalt-related products in the market this week, as detailed below: Refined Cobalt: According to SMM spot quotes, refined cobalt spot prices showed a downward trend this week. As of June 6, refined cobalt spot prices temporarily stabilized at 220,600-246,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 233,550 yuan/mt, down 350 yuan/mt or 0.15% from May 30. 》Check SMM cobalt and lithium spot quotes According to SMM survey, from the supply side, the refined cobalt market is still digesting social inventory at a relatively slow pace. The economic efficiency of refined cobalt production remains relatively low, leading to a slight decline in smelters' capacity utilisation rates and a slight drop in quotes. From the demand side, there has been no significant change in the purchasing pace of downstream producers, who continue to make just-in-time procurement, with relatively mediocre inquiries and buying interest. It is expected that refined cobalt spot prices will continue to fluctuate next week. Cobalt Salts (Cobalt Sulphate and Cobalt Chloride): Cobalt Sulphate: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt sulphate spot prices also continued to decline this week. As of June 6, cobalt sulphate spot prices fell to 46,950-49,800 yuan/mt, with an average price of 48,375 yuan/mt, down 175 yuan/mt or 0.36% from May 30. 》Check SMM cobalt and lithium spot quotes According to SMM survey, from the supply side, quotes from mainstream cobalt sulphate smelters remained relatively stable, with some recyclers' cobalt sulphate spot quotes slightly declining. From the demand side, given the uncertainties surrounding future policies in the DRC, downstream producers generally adopted a wait-and-see attitude. Additionally, with no significant improvement in material producers' order situations, downstream purchase willingness remained low, and there were no large-scale procurement activities. It is expected that cobalt sulphate spot prices will continue to fluctuate weakly next week. Cobalt Chloride: According to SMM spot quotes, cobalt chloride spot prices fluctuated slightly downward. As of June 6, cobalt chloride spot prices fell to 58,500-60,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 59,250 yuan/mt, down 400 yuan/mt or 0.67% from May 30. According to SMM, from the supply side, quotes from major cobalt chloride smelters remained firm, indicating a certain reluctance to sell. However, some smelters showed a strong willingness to sell, leading to a small number of low-price transactions in the market, which in turn pulled down the overall spot prices. Demand side, downstream enterprises primarily engaged in just-in-time procurement and generally maintained a certain level of cobalt salt inventory. There were fewer inquiries, and a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailed. Despite this, due to the ongoing shortage of raw materials, market bullish sentiment remained high and consistent. It is expected that next week, the spot price of cobalt chloride will continue to fluctuate at a high level and will be difficult to decline. Co3O4: According to SMM spot quotes, the spot quotes for Co3O4 fell sharply this week. As of June 6, the spot quotes for Co3O4 dropped to 192,000-199,500 yuan/mt, with an average price of 195,750 yuan/mt, down 7,650 yuan/mt from May 30, representing a decline of 3.76%. According to SMM, supply side, the Co3O4 market was relatively sluggish after the holiday. Most smelters lowered their quotes and showed increased willingness to sell, with some low-price transactions further pulling down the spot price. Demand side, LCO producers only maintained necessary procurement without the intention of stockpiling inventory, adopting an overall wait-and-see attitude. Their acceptance of Co3O4 prices decreased, and market inquiries remained scarce. It is expected that next week, the peak of market procurement has not yet arrived, demand will remain weak, and there will be a lack of obvious upward momentum. The short-term spot price of Co3O4 is expected to continue to decline. In terms of corporate developments, as one of the well-known cobalt industry giants in China, GEM mentioned in its 2024 annual report that the company's shipments of Co3O4 products for 3C batteries ranked second in the world, accounting for over 20% of the global market. The company's ultra-fine cobalt powder ranked first in the global industry market, occupying over 50% of the global cemented carbide market. The company stated that in 2024, the production and sales of Co3O4 strongly recovered, achieving annual sales of 20,664 mt, up 88% YoY. The company sold 12,557 mt of cobalt products (including ultra-fine cobalt powder and cobalt sheets), up 76% YoY. The company's ultra-fine cobalt powder occupied over 50% of the global market, ranking first globally for 12 consecutive years. In 2024, the company's Co3O4 production line with an annual capacity of 5,000 mt was completed. In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 33.2 billion yuan, up 8.75% YoY, hitting a record high. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm was 1.02 billion yuan, up 9.19% YoY. In Q1 2025, the company's dual-track business capacity was significantly released, with robust production and sales. The average capacity utilisation rate of core products exceeded 97%, and the global market remained stable, unaffected by global tariff trade challenges. The company's operating performance grew significantly, with key financial indicators such as sales revenue, net profit, and operating cash flow all hitting record highs for the same period. The company achieved operating revenue of 9.496 billion yuan, up 13.67% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of the publicly listed firm of 511 million yuan, up 12.10% YoY. Looking ahead to 2025, the company expects shipments of its cobalt products (including ultra-fine cobalt powder, cobalt sheet, and Co3O4) to be around 40,000-55,000 mt, and shipments of ternary cathode precursor are expected to be around 200,000-300,000 mt.