[SMM Magnesium Weekly Review: Cost Support vs. Weak Demand — Magnesium Prices Rose First Then Fell] Magnesium prices rose first then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, prices surged driven by rising coal costs, but later pulled back due to downstream resistance to high prices and sluggish transactions. Dolomite prices remained stable, while magnesium powder and magnesium alloys fluctuated in line with magnesium ingot prices. Export inquiries recovered but actual transactions remained low. In the short term, the market is expected to continue in the doldrums with range-bound fluctuations.

[Tug-of-War between Sellers and Buyers Intensified, Magnesium Market Retreated after Rapid Rise, Price Center Shifted Downward] Today, the 99.90% magnesium ingot price in major producing areas was quoted at 16,600-16,700 yuan/mt, basically flat compared with earlier quotes, with increased low-priced supplies in the market.

[SMM Silicon-Based PV Morning Meeting Summary] Polysilicon: N-type recharging polysilicon was quoted at 33-35.9 yuan/kg. Polysilicon prices were generally weak. Dense/recharging prices were relatively stable, with low trading volume. Mixed packages gradually became the market mainstream, with prices for some grades falling to around 30 yuan. Wafer: Market 18X wafer prices were 0.88-0.9 yuan/piece, 210RN wafer prices were 0.98-1.00 yuan/piece, and 210N wafer prices were 1.18-1.2 yuan/piece. Currently, the lower end of the 210R price range still showed a downward trend, while the other two sizes remained temporarily stable. Leading wafer enterprises continued to hold prices firm. According to SMM statistics, the overall furnace-loading costs across companies declined notably, and current selling prices could still cover cash costs.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] News: Mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong accepted the fourth round of coke price increases, with wet quenching coke raised by 50 yuan/mt and coke dry quenching raised by 55 yuan/mt, effective from midnight on May 26, 2026. In terms of supply, the fourth round of coke price increases has been implemented, and most coke producers maintained moderate profits. However, coking coal prices have expectations of rising, which may squeeze coke producers' profits. Coke producers showed limited production enthusiasm, and coke supply remained stable for now. Demand side, finished steel futures pulled back notably, but steel mills' daily average hot metal production continued to fluctuate at highs, sustaining rigid demand for coke, and buyers still had willingness to restock. In summary, coke had strong cost support, and the fourth round of coke price increases has been fully implemented. In the short term, the coke market is expected to hold up well.

[Secondary Lead Production Update] Affected by the rise in coal prices triggered, a secondary lead smelter in the northwest saw changes to its production resumption plan. The smelter originally planned to carry out furnace heating and resume production in early June, but has now shifted to a wait-and-see stance. Currently, raw material scrap battery prices stay high, and if smelting coke prices rise significantly further, the enterprise may delay its production resumption.

SMM May 25 News: Driven by rising market expectations for coal policy changes and concerns over tightening supply, bullish sentiment was released in a concentrated manner. Coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit up on May 25 and remained locked at the limit. As of the close of the daytime session on May 25, the most-traded coking coal and coke futures contracts were locked at the daily limit with gains of 7.97% and 7.99%, respectively. The limit-up moves in coking coal and coke lifted the broader ferrous metals and related raw material sectors, with the ferrosilicon continuous most-traded contract rising 3.97% on May 25. Supported by the strengthening prices of raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon, magnesium ingot prices moved higher, with magnesium ingots gaining over 2% in a single day on May 25. Bullish sentiment in the market had already begun to emerge last Sunday. Rising Coal and Ferrosilicon Prices Highlight Cost Support for Magnesium Ingots Spot market: Primary magnesium smelting is highly dependent on raw materials such as coal and ferrosilicon, with a clear cost transmission chain. As coal prices continued to rise, cost pressure on upstream magnesium enterprises increased significantly. Some upstream enterprises reported that they had already raised their quotations to 16,700 yuan/mt last Sunday. On May 25, although morning inquiries were lukewarm, supported by the rigid cost underpinning from rising raw material prices, most producers still held firm at 16,700 yuan/mt, with a strong willingness to hold prices firm. By region, magnesium ingot prices across China were generally raised by 350 yuan/mt. Mainstream quotations for magnesium ingots (9990) in Fugu, Shenmu, and Inner Mongolia were 16,700 yuan/mt, while quotations in Wenxi were 16,900 yuan/mt. Currently, relevant policies for the coal mine market have not yet been officially implemented. The industry as a whole maintains a cautious wait-and-see stance, and the pace and impact of subsequent policy implementation deserve close attention. Outlook Looking at this round of magnesium price increases, the core driving factor was the rise in raw material costs such as coal and ferrosilicon, representing a typical cost-push price increase rather than one driven by improvements in supply-demand fundamentals. From the current magnesium market fundamentals perspective, the overall oversupply pattern has not shown significant improvement. Although downstream demand demonstrated a certain degree of resilience, end-use demand showed no notable incremental growth, while supply within the market also showed no obvious contraction, leaving fundamentals lacking strong upward support. Overall, the short-term raw material price increases effectively underpinned magnesium prices, supporting magnesium prices to hold up well. However, constrained by the weak supply-demand pattern, the rebound room for magnesium prices in this round is relatively limited. Going forward, it is essential to continue closely monitoring price fluctuations in coal and ferrosilicon raw materials and the implementation of coal mine-related policies, while paying close attention to the release of downstream demand and changes in market supply, in order to assess the pace and upside room for subsequent magnesium price movements. Recommended Reading:

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Rebounded from Low-Level Support in Night Session, Spot Cargo Dominated by Rigid Demand with Sluggish Trading] Last Friday, the ADC12 market overall continued a stable-price wait-and-see pattern, with cautious market sentiment. The SMM ADC12 price remained stable from the previous day at 23,700 yuan/mt.

[Silicon Metal Prices Shift to Move Sideways, Attention on Operating Rate Changes on Both Supply and Demand Sides]: At the beginning of the week, spot silicon metal prices edged lower in a narrow range before shifting to move sideways. As of May 21, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was at 9,100-9,200 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW, and #441 silicon was at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt WoW. The futures market center shifted lower WoW. On Thursday, the most-traded SI2609 contract closed at 8,440 yuan/mt, down 215 yuan/mt WoW, with open interest at 308,000 lots, a WoW decrease of 7,000 lots. In terms of market transactions, as futures weakened at the beginning of the week, some downstream buyers and traders increased their rigid demand purchases, and the market transaction center moved lower WoW. Fundamentals side, both supply and demand of silicon metal are expected to increase in June. Supply side, the main driver is the increase in operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan during the rainy season. Demand side, the main factor is production resumption expectations of individual polysilicon enterprises.

SMM Cold-Rolled Production Schedule: May Steel Mill Cold-Rolled Production Schedule Up 2%, Daily Average Production Schedule Down 1.4% According to the latest SMM tracking data, the total planned cold-rolled commercial steel volume from 31 mainstream cold-rolled sheet and coil steel mills was 4.2123 million mt this month, up 78,500 mt MoM from actual cold-rolled commercial steel production, an increase of 1.9%. On a daily average basis, May had one more day than April. The daily average cold-rolled commercial steel production schedule in May was 135,900 mt, down 1.4% MoM from the daily average actual cold-rolled commercial steel production in the previous month. SMM HRC Production Schedule: May HRC Production Schedule Up 0.3% MoM, Daily Average Down 3% According to the latest SMM tracking data, the total planned HRC commercial steel volume from 39 mainstream steel mills was 13.3564 million mt this month, up 37,400 mt MoM from actual HRC commercial steel production, an increase of 0.3%. On a daily average basis, May had one more day than April. The daily average HRC commercial steel production schedule in May was 430,900 mt, down 3.0% MoM from April's actual daily average production. Currently, steel mill profits and order conditions were favorable, and production enthusiasm was high. The overall May production schedule was basically flat MoM compared to April's actual production. May had fewer days than April, and on a daily average basis, steel mills' HRC production schedule declined MoM. Summary: Total production schedule for hot-rolled commercial steel at steel mills in May was basically flat MoM. However, since May has more days than April, the daily average production schedule decreased MoM, and supply pressure was slightly lower than previous expectations. Demand side, sheets & plates demand is expected to weaken marginally in mid-to-late May. Hot-rolled coil inventory is expected to continue destocking over the next 2–3 weeks, and the accumulation of supply-demand imbalance before month-end in May will be limited. Other aspects, the ex-China energy premium is unlikely to ease in the short term, and hot metal production continues at elevated levels. HRC prices are expected to fluctuate at highs before late May. During this period, the pullback in coking coal prices driven by expectations of easing Middle East conflicts and the periodic weakening in export order-taking for hot-rolled coils are expected to put prices under pressure temporarily, though the downside is limited.

[SMM Coking Coal and Coke Daily Brief] Supply side, the third round of coke price increases has been implemented. Coke producers saw increased profitability and maintained high production enthusiasm, while their coke inventory remained at low levels, supporting an optimistic sentiment. Demand side, hot metal production at steel mills edged down recently, weakening rigid demand for coke. Steel mills' own coke inventory stayed at reasonable levels, and buyers mainly purchased as needed. In summary, downstream demand is expected to weaken, and the tight supply-demand structure of coke is expected to improve. In the short term, the coke market is likely to hold up well with a generally stable with slight rise trend.