[SMM Daily Review: Macro Policies Drove a Rebound in Futures, with High-Grade NPI Quotes Edging Up] March 26 News: SMM's upstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 2.86, up 0.03 MoM, while the downstream sentiment factor for high-grade NPI was 1.56, flat MoM.

This week, ternary cathode precursor prices increased slightly, while sulphate prices were all flat today. Discounts, for April and Q2 orders, some producers were willing to raise discounts due to large fluctuations in raw material prices. Long-term contracts, some producers recently finalized long-term agreements. As downstream demand was relatively weak, discount increases were expected to be limited, but there was some room for negotiation on processing fees. Spot orders, the Ni-Co-Mn coefficient for spot orders rose this month, and with current downstream procurement sentiment weak, further upside room was expected to be limited. Production, leading producers in China and those with relatively large export orders still maintained high operating intensity. Looking ahead, recent sulphate costs provided strong support, but downstream acceptance remained subject to observation of downstream demand in Q2.

SMM Nickel News, March 26: Macro and Market News: (1) On March 25, COSCO SHIPPING Lines issued a service notice announcing the immediate resumption of new bookings for services from the Far East to the following Middle East countries (dry containers): the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. The resumption of shipments did not mean that COSCO SHIPPING container vessels could pass through the Strait of Hormuz. (2) In the early hours of March 25, Tehran time, Iran's Permanent Mission to the United Nations said in a statement on social media that non-hostile vessels could safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with relevant Iranian authorities, provided that the countries to which they belong or with which they are associated neither participate in nor support acts of aggression against Iran, and fully comply with the announced safety and security regulations. Spot Market: On March 26, the SMM price of #1 refined nickel rose by 1,550 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In terms of spot premiums, the average premium for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 5,400 yuan/mt, down 750 yuan/mt from the previous trading day; domestic mainstream electrodeposited nickel was at -400-400 yuan/mt. Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2605) opened sharply higher in last night's session and then fluctuated downward, closing the morning session today at 135,250 yuan/mt, up 0.50%. Policy expectations that Indonesia may impose a nickel export tax, together with firm ore prices on the raw material side and easing macro sentiment, jointly drove nickel prices to rebound. Nickel prices are expected to hold up well in the short term, with the core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt.

The latest customs data showed that in February 2026, China’s imports of unwrought silver ingots with a purity of no less than 99.99% reached 206.76 mt, up 499% MoM and surging 5,910% YoY to a multi-year high. The rare opening of the import window drove significant changes in the supply-demand pattern of the domestic silver ingot market.

Dalian iron ore was generally weak today. The most-traded contract, I2605, finally closed at 806.5 yuan/mt, down 1.83% from the previous trading session. Spot prices fell by about 10-15 yuan from the previous trading day. Traders actively offered quotes, while steel mills mainly made inquiries and purchases based on rigid demand, with cautious inquiries; overall, the spot market trading atmosphere was average. According to the latest SMM survey data, hot metal daily average production reached 2.4049 million mt this week, an increase of 15,000 mt WoW, with demand showing a steady improvement. In terms of supply, some iron ore originally planned for shipment to the Middle East began to be redirected to the Chinese market, including some ore grades used for direct reduced iron (DRI), increasing market supply options and putting some pressure on prices. From a macro perspective, the situation in the Middle East remained tense, and the escalation of war triggered a sharp rise in energy prices, driving up global inflationary pressure. Expectations for US dollar interest rate cuts weakened significantly, leading to a certain pullback in commodity prices, including iron ore prices. Overall, iron ore prices faced strong resistance in the short term, but downside room was limited, and the market is expected to continue moving in a sideways range.

As supply and demand for construction steel were not fully matched across different markets, regional supply-demand mismatches created price differentiation, which in turn drove the cross-regional circulation of steel resources. When the regional price spread gradient was appropriate, regions with surplus construction steel capacity and production often shipped excess resources out, thereby rebalancing construction steel resources across regions.

[SMM Daily Brief Review of Coking Coal and Coke] In terms of supply, with costs remaining high, most coke producers saw wider losses and began to push for a coke price hike, but losses remained within an acceptable range, and coke production stayed stable. On the demand side, steel trading improved somewhat, steel mills became more willing to produce, and daily average hot metal production continued to increase, further boosting rigid demand for coke. Overall, coke fundamentals shifted toward tightness, but steel mills showed only average acceptance of higher coke prices, and the coke market may remain generally stable with slight rise in the short term.

On March 25, the SMM average price of battery-grade nickel sulphate remained stable.

Jan-Feb 2026 China magnesium exports reached 72.7kt, up 3.4kt YoY. Magnesium alloy led with +33.1% YoY, orders booked through April. Magnesium ingot fell 6.8% due to weak European demand, while powder grew 10.3%. However, US-Israel conflict disrupted Middle East aluminum plants, halting regional magnesium orders and pressuring Q2 outlook despite the strong start.

As of March 24, titanium dioxide prices continued to rise, with the SMM index up 4.6% since early 2026. Two rounds of price hikes were issued in March amid low inventories. Strong exports and production cuts supported gains, though sustainability post-peak season remains uncertain, hinging on downstream acceptance.