The July off-season, compounded by high temperatures, kept operating rates at downstream processing enterprises in the central China market low, with buying sentiment remaining persistently sluggish. However, wide premiums prompted traders’ hedging sentiment to push up discounts and capture price spreads, resulting in relatively strong buying interest among them. Meanwhile, suppliers’ pronounced willingness to hold prices firm and sell drove the market discounts higher. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market centered around a discount of 130-170 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum August contract.

In H1 2026, Shanghai aluminum prices followed a high-first-then-low trajectory. In Q1, a mix of market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East drove aluminum prices to multi-year highs. Entering Q2, confirmation of the US strong-dollar policy stance, easing supply disruptions in the Middle East, and a seasonal lull in domestic downstream consumption combined to push the aluminum price center downward continuously. Looking ahead to H2, persistent strong US dollar sentiment and overseas liquidity concerns will cap non-ferrous metal valuations. On the supply side, elevated aluminum prices have incentivized higher production releases; domestic operating capacity is projected to rise month-on-month, while newly commissioned capacity in the Middle East and Indonesia will ramp up output gradually. On the demand side, domestic consumption recovery is set to remain modest. Existing export order backlogs will still prop up aluminum semi-finished product shipments, yet market expectations for new export orders have softened. All told, Shanghai aluminum’s price center is likely to slide further in H2, delivering a full-year high-first-then-low price pattern. 1. H1 2026 Shanghai Aluminum Price Review by Stage 1.1 Q1: Macroeconomics & Geopolitics Dominate, Aluminum Prices Surge Then Consolidate Shanghai aluminum prices in Q1 2026 were primarily dictated by macro sentiment and overseas supply disruptions, with seasonally weak fundamentals taking a backseat. January: Rate Cut Expectations & Capital Inflows Fuel Price Rally Fundamentals: A seasonal lull ahead of the Lunar New Year created demand weakness, leading to a continuous build-up of social aluminum ingot inventories. By late January, SMM-tracked social inventories hit 782,000 tonnes, the highest level for the period in three years. Sustained high aluminum margins squeezed profit margins for downstream processors, dampening their willingness to operate and curbing primary aluminum purchasing activity. Macroeconomics: Markets priced in an impending Fed rate-cut cycle, sending the US Dollar Index sharply lower and drawing heavy speculative capital into commodity futures. Complementary pro-consumption policies rolled out domestically further underpinned aluminum prices. SMM’s average A00 aluminum price stood at RMB 24,086/tonne in January, the highest monthly average in H1. February: Cooling Rate-Cut Hopes Trigger Range-Bound Weakness Fundamentals: Lunar New Year holidays triggered a sharp collapse in downstream procurement, while smelters ramped up ingot casting, pushing social inventories even higher. Post-holiday SMM social inventories climbed to 1.108 million tonnes, with bloated stock levels failing to provide upward price support. Macroeconomics: Dimming Fed rate-cut bets lifted the US Dollar Index, prompting profit-taking liquidation that dragged aluminum prices lower and locked the market into weak consolidation. The average SMM A00 aluminum price retreated to RMB 23,385/tonne in February, down roughly RMB 700 month-on-month. March: Alternating Middle East Supply Risks & Demand Drags Intensify Volatility March trading centered on alternating forces of Middle East supply disruptions and demand-side headwinds, amplifying long-short volatility and driving aluminum prices through a pattern of rally-correction-rebound. Supply-side developments saw widespread overseas production curtailments: Mozal entered maintenance; Qatalum maintained a 60% operating rate and ruled out further output reductions; Alba shut down Lines 1, 2 and 3 with additional cutbacks rumoured; major damage to EGA facilities stoked fears of large-scale production suspensions. SMM estimates tally nearly 4 million tonnes of overseas primary aluminum capacity subject to cuts, including Mozambique’s smelter. Worries over contracting overseas supply became the core catalyst for periodic price rallies. Geopolitical risks: Escalating conflict in the Middle East raised widespread market concerns over shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz, embedding persistent geopolitical risk premiums into aluminum valuations. Demand-side headwinds: Mounting stagflation fears lifted risk aversion; lofty aluminum prices deterred downstream buying, while surging energy and freight costs crushed processor profitability and restrained demand recovery. SMM’s average A00 aluminum price rebounded to RMB 24,386/tonne in March, the second-highest monthly average in H1, alongside markedly wider price swings. 1.2 Q2: Expanding Supply & Marginal Demand Weakness Push Price Center Lower In Q2, high aluminum prices lifted domestic capacity utilization, while the market gradually priced in the impacts of overseas smelter cutbacks, shifting focus back to domestic fundamentals. Shanghai aluminum’s average price fell from roughly RMB 24,665/tonne in April to RMB 23,769/tonne in June, with prices dipping to an intra-year low of RMB 22,665/tonne in late June. Supply side: Strong prices encouraged primary aluminum smelters to boost operating rates and lift domestic output. The market gradually absorbed the impact of cutbacks in Mozambique and the Middle East, weakening the Shanghai-LME aluminum price ratio. Between June and July, rumours circulated that curtailed Middle East capacity would resume production, coupled with sequential commissioning of new Indonesian smelters, amplifying expectations of rising overseas supply. Industry communications indicate domestic primary aluminum output rose approximately 3.5% year-on-year over the first five months. Demand side: Elevated aluminum prices weighed on domestic end-user consumption, yet a stronger LME premium relative to Shanghai aluminum boosted semi-finished aluminum exports, offsetting weak domestic primary aluminum offtake. General Administration of Customs data records cumulative exports of unwrought aluminum and semi-finished products at 2.685 million tonnes in Jan-May, up 10.4% YoY. April single-month exports hit 598,000 tonnes, a one-year-plus high, followed by May shipments of 632,000 tonnes, up 15.5% YoY. Robust export volumes effectively filled the gap left by muted domestic consumption. Inventory side: Q2 delivered a pronounced destocking cycle. Social inventories peaked at 1.465 million tonnes in early May before falling to 1.165 million tonnes by end-June, a total drawdown of around 300,000 tonnes with an accelerated destocking pace. Weekly inventory drawdowns once surged to 170,000 tonnes, a four-year high for single-week de-stocking volumes. 2. Fundamental Supply & Demand Analysis 2.1 Supply: High Smelting Margins Boost Operating Rates, New Capacity Ramp-Ups Keep H1 Supply Ample Persistently robust smelting profitability in H1 2026 significantly expanded production flexibility, acting as the core driver of loose supply conditions through the first half. On one hand, sustained aluminum price strength maintained healthy per-tonne margins, maximizing smelters’ production incentives. On the other hand, new projects commissioned from late 2025 through H1 2026 entered sequential ramp-up phases, delivering steady monthly output increments. Continuous volume growth from newly commissioned capacity further lifted domestic primary aluminum production. The combined effects drove steady gains in national primary aluminum output, resulting in abundant raw material supply across the market. 2.2 Demand: Muted Domestic Consumption, Exports Act as Key Support Domestic primary aluminum demand in H1 2026 displayed a clear divergence: soft domestic offtake offset by buoyant external demand. Persistently high aluminum prices suppressed downstream purchasing, yet semi-finished aluminum exports benefited from favourable cross-market price differentials and delivered standout performance. General Administration of Customs data shows China exported 1.435 million tonnes of aluminum semi-finished products in Jan-May 2026, up 13.7% YoY, with May single-month exports reaching 320,000 tonnes (+14.7% YoY). Elevated export volumes over the first five months created a vital outlet for domestic primary aluminum digestions. The core driver behind export strength was the LME-over-Shanghai price spread: overseas markets faced tight supply expectations stemming from Middle East production cuts, while bloated domestic inventories depressed Shanghai aluminum, creating lucrative profit windows for semi-finished aluminum exporters. 2.3 Inventories: H1 Inventory Build to Multi-Year Highs Followed by Rapid Q2 Destocking Domestic social primary aluminum inventories traversed three distinct phases in H1 2026: rapid accumulation, consolidation at elevated levels, then steep destocking. Early-year seasonal weakness ahead of the Lunar New Year combined with high aluminum prices curbing demand drove continuous inventory builds, which peaked at a multi-year high of 1.465 million tonnes in early May. Subsequent downstream post-holiday restocking and surging export shipments triggered accelerated inventory drawdowns through Q2. The sharp destocking rate stemmed from concentrated export deliveries paired with a wave of downstream replenishment demand. 3. H2 2026 Outlook 3.1 Macroeconomics: Strong US Dollar Caps Metal Valuations The US will maintain its strong-dollar policy stance, keeping the US Dollar Index elevated and capping valuation upside across non-ferrous metals. Middle Eastern geopolitical risk premiums will gradually fade amid improved shipping outlook for the Strait of Hormuz and easing overseas liquidity jitters, creating long-term bearish pressure on aluminum prices. 3.2 Supply: Overseas Capacity Resumptions & New Commissioning Run Parallel Overseas market developments include incremental production restarts across Middle Eastern smelters, alongside faster ramp-up schedules for newly commissioned overseas capacity. 3.3 Demand: Weakening Support from Export Orders Short-term backlogged orders will continue to underpin semi-finished aluminum export volumes, yet narrowing cross-market price spreads have softened market expectations for new export order intake, pointing to downside risks for export growth over the medium-to-long term. Market participants will closely monitor domestic seasonal peak consumption trends and overseas new order placement momentum. 4. Comprehensive Market Assessment All factors considered, the Shanghai aluminum market will face dual headwinds of macro valuation pressure and expanding supply volumes throughout H2 2026.

Today, the transaction atmosphere in the central China market remained sluggish. The decline in SHFE aluminum futures persisted, and downstream processing enterprises showed significant fear of falling prices, with only those not under long-term contracts engaging predominantly in just-in-time procurement. As aluminum prices fell excessively, suppliers' willingness to sell also remained low, and their willingness to hold prices firm was weak. Ultimately, the actual transaction price range in the central China market centered around a premium of –30 to –50 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum July contract.

[SMM Central China Spot Aluminum Midday Review] SHFE aluminum futures prices continued to decline compared to yesterday's early session, with a relatively narrow spot-futures spread. Traders in the central China market took the opportunity to hold prices firm, maintaining high discounts and shipping large volumes, while market trading sentiment edged up from yesterday. The actual transaction price range in the central China market was around a discount of 100-130 yuan/mt against the SHFE aluminum June contract.

[Hawkish US Fed Expectations Heat Up, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and in the Doldrums] On the fundamentals, the tight spot cargo situation in the ex-China aluminum market continued. LME aluminum inventory remained at low levels, cancelled warrants continued to grow, reflecting tight available supplies. Meanwhile, Japan's Q3 spot aluminum premiums were further raised, also indicating resilient Asian spot demand. Multiple factors jointly supported LME aluminum's performance. On the China side, driven by improved export margins, aluminum semis exports recovered and are expected to remain at a relatively high level in the near term. However, the pace of China's inventory drawdown was slow, spot transactions were lackluster, and downstream purchasing remained cautious, limiting SHFE aluminum's upside room. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to continue moving sideways with LME outperforming SHFE in the near term.

SMM May 22: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China's primary aluminum imports in April 2026 were approximately 265,000 mt, up 4.1% MoM and up 5.9% YoY. From January to April 2026, China's cumulative primary aluminum imports totaled approximately 911,000 mt, up 9.2% YoY. In April, China's primary aluminum exports were approximately 16,000 mt, up 6.3% MoM and up 13.7% YoY. From January to April, cumulative primary aluminum exports totaled approximately 54,000 mt, up around 55.1% YoY. In April, China's net primary aluminum imports were 250,000 mt, up 4.0% MoM and up 5.5% YoY. From January to April, China's cumulative net primary aluminum imports were approximately 858,000 mt, up 7.2% YoY. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010.) By country of origin, 83.6% of China's total primary aluminum imports in April came from the Russian Federation, 7.9% from Indonesia, 3.5% from Australia, and 2.7% from India. By trade mode, from January to April, the share of primary aluminum imports under Ordinary Trade was 4.0%, 1.3%, 1.7%, and 0.2% respectively, down 23.6, 27.2, 21.3, and 23.7 percentage points YoY respectively. LME aluminum outperformed SHFE aluminum in price trends, the SHFE/LME price ratio declined, and imports under Ordinary Trade decreased. It is possible that large volumes of bonded warehouse cargo may be re-exported to other countries outside China going forward. According to SMM surveys, long-term contracts and previously signed orders in April were fulfilled normally. Combined with in-transit cargo arriving at ports successively, China's primary aluminum imports remained at elevated levels. Currently, the supply-demand gap in the ex-China aluminum market is significant, with high spot aluminum ingot premiums outside China. Going forward, some imported cargo may be diverted for re-export to high-premium regions such as Japan and South Korea, Thailand, India, and Europe and the US. Overall, China's net primary aluminum imports in 2026 are expected to decline YoY.

[Geopolitical Tensions Boost LME, China Inventory Buildup and Weakening Demand Under Pressure] In the short term, the core pattern of LME outperforming SHFE in the aluminum market is difficult to reverse. The strength in LME will support room for SHFE aluminum to catch up after the holiday, but high inventory and weak demand in China will suppress overall gains. Going forward, the focus should be on the pace of aluminum ingot destocking in China and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream resumption of work and production resumptions.

In the short term, the core pattern of LME outperforms SHFE is unlikely to reverse. Strength in the overseas market will support SHFE aluminum's post-holiday catch-up potential, but high domestic inventory and weak demand will cap overall gains. Going forward, key focus will be on the pace of China aluminum ingot destocking and the strength of rigid demand release from downstream production resumptions.

As of April 24, the mainstream price in the south China market — SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) was at a discount of 345 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract, while the mainstream price in the east China market — SMM A00 aluminum was at a discount of 130 yuan/mt against the 2605 contract. The price spread between the two regions had exceeded 200 yuan/mt, covering sea freight, short-haul transfer, and logistics costs, officially opening up the transshipment window between Guangdong and Shanghai...

SMM, March 20: Today, SHFE aluminum futures prices plunged. Coupled with downstream processing enterprises' procurement and stockpiling demand ahead of the weekend market closure, overall purchase sentiment in the central China market remained high, with strong bullish sentiment. Suppliers showed a strong willingness to hold prices firm, and market quotations showed no downward trend. Ultimately, the overall quotation range in the central China market was concentrated at premiums of 10 yuan to 60 yuan over the central China price, while actual mainstream transaction prices were concentrated at premiums of 30 yuan to 40 yuan over the central China price. Today, the central China market shipment sentiment index was 2.61, up 0.03 MoM; the buying sentiment index was 2.51, up 0.08 MoM.