[SMM Daily HRC Trading] On May 25, the combined daily trading volume of HRC from SMM's sample enterprises across four cities (Shanghai, Lecong, Tianjin, Ningbo) totaled 14,210 mt, up 450 mt DoD (+3.3%), up 6.04% YoY (solar calendar), and up 62.59% YoY (lunar calendar).

In April 2026, domestic lead prices overall moved sideways, with spot cargo and futures trends remaining relatively stable. According to SMM data, the average spot price of SMM #1 lead ingot in April was 16,525 yuan/mt, with prices operating steadily within the range during the month, rising first then declining. Futures market, SHFE lead contract prices were generally higher than spot prices……

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] Looking ahead to tomorrow, copper prices edged up during the day, market trading cooled notably, downstream enterprises mainly made just-in-time procurement, and demand was unlikely to see significant increases. The inter-month Contango price spread between futures contracts widened slightly, and suppliers showed some willingness to hold prices firm. In addition, according to SMM, available spot copper in Jiangsu was relatively tight, with some downstream enterprises reporting difficulty in finding low-priced supplies. Overall, amid high copper prices suppressing demand and the slightly widening Contango price spread between futures contracts, Shanghai spot copper is expected to maintain a discount against the 2606 contract tomorrow, potentially widening slightly.

Platinum prices were in the doldrums today. Precious metals futures fluctuated around expectations of Voss's inauguration and a US-Iran ceasefire. In the morning session, GFEX PT2606 closed at 485.65 yuan/gram, down slightly by 0.20%, and the most-traded PT2608 contract closed at 489.5 yuan/gram, down 0.10%. The SGE Pt9995 best offer price remained persistently inverted against GFEX PT2606, with the price spread maintained at around 5-10 yuan/gram. Spot side, mainstream quotations for spot platinum premiums were basically flat compared to the previous trading day. In the morning session, traders' mainstream quotations were at parity to a discount of 2 yuan/gram against GFEX PT2606. Transaction side, according to SMM, in the morning session suppliers found it difficult to transact at parity to a discount of 1 yuan/gram against the most-traded GFEX platinum contract. Downstream buyers purchased on rigid demand with price negotiations, and some suppliers reported small volumes transacted at a discount of 2 yuan/gram for spot cargo. Most suppliers had limited room for negotiation due to the approaching delivery period, and registered warrants were generally offered at relatively high shipments prices. Overall, the spot platinum market saw subdued consumption today.

SMM Morning Meeting Minutes: Last Friday evening, LME copper opened at $13,624.5/mt. In the early session, it experienced wild swings and dipped to $13,575.5/mt. Subsequently, the center of copper prices shifted upward, reaching a high of $13,678/mt, before fluctuating downward to finally close at $13,635/mt, up 0.18%. Trading volume reached 16,200 lots, and open interest stood at 269,000 lots, a decrease of 3,435 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bears reducing positions. Last Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE copper 2607 contract opened at 104,870 yuan/mt. In the early session, the center of copper prices fluctuated downward, touching a low of 104,420 yuan/mt. Subsequently, it fluctuated upward, reaching 105,280 yuan/mt, before moving sideways to finally close at 105,090 yuan/mt, up 0.58%. Trading volume reached 33,600 lots, and open interest stood at 172,000 lots, an increase of 627 lots from the previous trading day, indicating bulls adding positions.

[Geopolitical Risks Cool at the Margin; LME Outperforms SHFE Pattern in Aluminum Market Remains Unchanged] On the fundamentals side, the supply gap outside China and low inventory continue to provide bottom support. However, elevated inventory levels in China remain the core factor suppressing significant price rallies. Additionally, weak trading performance in the spot market further limits the upside room for aluminum prices. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to continue the pattern of LME outperforming SHFE, fluctuating at highs.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Aluminum Alloy Rebounded from Low-Level Support in Night Session, Spot Cargo Dominated by Rigid Demand with Sluggish Trading] Last Friday, the ADC12 market overall continued a stable-price wait-and-see pattern, with cautious market sentiment. The SMM ADC12 price remained stable from the previous day at 23,700 yuan/mt.

Futures: Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,005/mt and moved sideways during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it first dipped then rallied, touching a low of $1,995/mt before bears reduced positions. LME lead reached a high of $2,015/mt near the close, ultimately settling at $2,013/mt, up 0.4%. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2607 contract opened at 16,735 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,780 yuan/mt at the start of the session before moving sideways, and ultimately settled at 16,775 yuan/mt, up 0.24%. On the macro front: Waller was sworn in, emphasizing that the US Fed will be "reform-oriented." US Fed Governor Waller stated that the current stance is to keep interest rates stable in the near term, and that interest rate hikes would be needed if inflation expectations become unanchored. US White House National Economic Council Director Hassett noted that a potential US-Iran deal could lead to a significant drop in energy prices and create room for the US Fed to cut interest rates. China's Ministry of Commerce reported that from January to April, national foreign investment absorption totaled 287.69 billion yuan, down 10.3% YoY. The CSRC and seven other departments jointly issued a document to crack down on illegal cross-border securities, futures, and fund business activities. The PBOC announced that it will conduct a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on May 25, with a tenor of one year. Hong Kong's stock market was closed on Monday, with southbound and northbound trading suspended. : In the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai market, warrant quotations remained scarce, and suppliers mainly traded cargoes self-picked up from primary lead smelters. SHFE lead continued to hold up well, and suppliers shipped along with the market. However, some smelters held prices firm on shipments due to limited inventory. Mainstream production areas quoted primary lead at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price on an ex-factory basis, with a few regions quoting premiums of 150-200 yuan/mt ex-factory. Additionally, as lead prices rebounded, secondary lead losses were repaired, and smelter shipment sentiment improved. Mainstream production areas quoted secondary refined lead at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against SMM #1 lead on an ex-factory basis, with a few premiums of 50 yuan/mt still available. However, downstream enterprises had limited rigid demand, especially after lead prices rose, with more downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see approach and declining inquiry enthusiasm, resulting in sluggish spot market transactions. Inventory: On May 22, LME lead inventory was unchanged from the previous day at 286,475 mt. As of May 21, SMM lead ingot social inventory across five locations totaled 73,300 mt, an increase of 2,300 mt from May 14. Lead price forecast for today: Lower lead futures prices generated some stocking demand from downstream buyers on dips. Combined with reduced lead imports, this contributed to lead ingot destocking and supported lead prices to rebound after testing lows. Meanwhile, secondary lead enterprises are gradually resuming production, and secondary refined lead transaction prices have shifted to discounts (against the SMM #1 lead average price). The incremental supply is expected to put pressure on the sustainability of subsequent lead ingot destocking, limiting upside room for lead prices. Data Source Statement: All data other than public information is SMM processed data based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.

According to customs data, China's aluminum plate/sheet and strip (tariff codes 76061121, 76061129, 76061191, 76061199, 76061220, 76061230, 76061251, 76061259, 76061290, 76069100, 76069200) exports totaled 327,900 mt in April 2026, up 18% MoM and up 18% YoY.

Nickel Ore " Indonesia Officially Issues Presidential Decree Requiring Designated State-Owned Enterprises to Monopolize Strategic Resource Exports Starting This June " 1. Price Dynamics and HMA Revisions The Indonesian nickel ore price remained stable this week. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has officially released the Nickel Mineral Benchmark Price (HMA) for the second half of May 2026. Nickel HMA: $18,849.3/dmt (up $1047.15 or 5.88% from $17,802.14 in early May). Cobalt HMA: $55,854/dmt. Iron Ore HMA: $1.58/dmt. Chrome Ore HMA: $6.37/dmt. Current port-delivered prices for 1.6% grade pyrometallurgical ore (saprolite) stand at $77.8-80.8/wmt. In contrast, 1.2% grade hydrometallurgical ore (limonite) is priced at approximately $28-33/wm.. 2. Supply-Demand Fundamentals and Weather Impacts For pyrometallurgical ore, unseasonal, abnormally heavy rainfall in the Central and South Sulawesi regions (Morowali and surrounding mining areas) has severely disrupted land transportation and barge transshipment. A series of micro-earthquakes (reaching up to magnitude M$1.9$) that occurred near Morowali between May 17 and 18 further exacerbated this impact. The combination of highly saturated soil moisture and minor crustal tremors has significantly increased the risk of landslides and slope instability, forcing mines to slow down their extraction and heavy-truck transportation pace for safety reasons. Therefore, even though the approval rate of regulatory quotas (RKAB) has reached approximately 90%, the spot supply of high-grade ore remains tight. To cope with exorbitant costs and tight supply, smelters are actively adopting cost-reduction strategies. These include blending low-grade ores into raw materials to lower the overall grade, promoting a unified premium pricing model of "HPM + USD $7–$10/wmt," and implementing standardized benchmarks for the chemical specifications of pyrometallurgical ore (Cobalt 0.05%, Iron 20%, Chrome 1%) to eliminate additional premiums for individual ore components. Meanwhile, the hydrometallurgical nickel ore market continues to suffer a severe disconnect from official pricing. The price of low-grade hydrometallurgical ore is under severe pressure and has completely failed to follow the upward trend of the new HPM. This price depression is primarily driven by the dual contraction of smelter operating rates and immediate raw material demand, with the core trigger being a potential production cut in Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) caused by a sulfuric acid supply shortage in May. Against a backdrop of relatively stable inventory levels, MHP refineries are leveraging this low-capacity operating environment to aggressively suppress procurement bids, causing hydrometallurgical ore prices to continue hovering at low levels. 3. SMM Internal Estimates The new pricing formula has led to increased price divergence and amplified volatility, particularly influenced by higher associated cobalt content in certain ores. SMM calculations show that the new HPM for 1.2% grade limonite is approximately $49.95, significantly higher than current market assessments. The new HPM for 1.6% grade saprolite is $70.83; the inclusion of higher cobalt content in the new formula has markedly amplified price fluctuations. While actual market transaction prices currently remain above this benchmark, the gap is steadily narrowing. 4. Regulatory Quotas (RKAB) and Market Outlook According to the ESDM, RKAB approvals for 2026 have reached approximately 90%. SMM statistics indicate that the total approved quota for Indonesian nickel ore stands at roughly 240 million wmt. The macroeconomic and policy focus of the market has recently shifted, primarily concentrating on the following two major export and contract regulatory policies: DSI's Full Takeover of the Export Mechanism: The Indonesian government has confirmed that starting January 1, 2027, DSI will fully take over the export business of coal, palm oil, and ferroalloys. This policy will facilitate a smooth transition of the export mechanism in two phases. Since ferroalloys (including ferronickel, NPI, etc.) fall within the scope of this takeover, the market is closely evaluating the impact of this transition period on the export logistics and compliance costs of Chinese-funded smelters. Crackdown on Under-Invoiced Long-Term Contracts: The Indonesian government emphasized that it will honor existing, valid long-term export contracts to maintain commercial credit. However, at the same time, the government will strictly investigate and punish long-term contracts suspected of "under-invoicing" (low-price customs declarations). It is reported that relevant Indonesian departments will soon hold consultations with major industry associations to ensure a smooth policy transition while plugging loopholes that lead to tax revenue losses from underpricing. Nickel Pig Iron " Supply-Demand Price Gap Widens; Short-Term Prices to Fluctuate within a Range " The average price of SMM 10-12% NPI average price fell by RMB 5.7 per nickel unit week-on-week to RMB 1140.3 per nickel unit (ex-works, tax included), while the Indonesia NPI FOB index dipped by USD 1.37 USD per nickel unit to an average of USD 146.52 per nickel unit. Downstream purchasing sentiment dropped even more visibly, intensifying the divide in market mindsets between buyers and sellers. On the supply side, existing NPI production cutbacks, coupled with recent disruptions from Indonesian export policy updates, have gradually tightened spot availability. Consequently, upstream producers are holding back cargo to defend their asking prices, generally keeping their offers firm. Sellers only slightly softened their quotes under the weight of weak futures markets, and their willingness to offload cargo at lower price levels remains low. This expectation of tighter market supply provides a solid floor for prices. On the demand side, pressure remains acute. The stainless steel market lacks upward momentum, forcing steel mills to adopt a highly cautious procurement stance centered strictly around hand-to-mouth restocking. Furthermore, as the price-to-performance advantage of stainless steel scrap expands, downstream buyers are pushing hard for discounts. Target buying prices remain heavily clustered between RMB 1,120 and 1,130/mtu, leaving a massive spread against upstream asking prices that makes reconciling the two sides very difficult. Market Outlook: While expectations of tightening supply will support spot prices, the weak futures market and competitive pricing from alternative raw materials will continue to cap upside gains. Accordingly, high-nickel pig iron prices are expected to exhibit a high-level, range-bound volatile trend next week.