Mainland Chinese lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide monohydrate average price forecasts for 2026 have been revised up to $20,100/t and $19,600/t respectively, reflecting H1 price strength. Prices are expected to soften in H2, but robust energy storage demand should limit downside, with uncertainty over CATL's Jianxiawo mine restart also capping bearish sentiment. Global lithium demand growth is projected to slow to 5.8% y/y in 2026 from 18.5% in 2025, tracking a deceleration in global passenger EV sales growth (BEV+PHEV) to 3.9% y/y from 22.8% in 2025. China remains the core demand driver: domestic NEV sales rose 23.6% y/y to 1.6 million units in June, with NEV penetration holding at a record 58.5% of new-vehicle sales for a third straight month as incentive withdrawal and structural pressures push the market into a more mature growth phase. Elevated fuel prices tied to the Middle East conflict are lending incremental support to electrified and hybrid powertrain demand. On supply, global lithium output is forecast to grow 13.2% y/y in 2026, led by Australia and China, with the price recovery supporting restarts of higher-cost Australian capacity despite cost pressure from energy prices and a potential sulphur shortage. The combined share of the top three producers Australia, China, and Chile is expected to decline through 2035 as Argentina and Zimbabwe ramp up output, with Zimbabwe seen as a key driver of African lithium mine development in the coming years. Carbonate's premium over hydroxide is expected to persist on continued LFP adoption, which now accounts for over half of global EV battery installations and more than 90% of battery energy storage capacity. Longer term, lithium-free/reduced-lithium battery chemistries and advances in battery recycling represent structural downside risks to price. SMM View: The revision confirms H1 price resilience rather than a shift in underlying fundamentals current prices remain viewed as elevated relative to fundamentals, with H2 risk skewed to the downside. For African supply, Zimbabwe's role in the coming decade's shift away from the traditional top three producers aligns with its ongoing sulphate/hydroxide integration build-out; continued execution would further strengthen Africa's position in the global lithium supply structure.

SMM August 18 News: During the session, the SHFE lead 2610 contract experienced a pattern of initial decline followed by a recovery. It opened at 15,880 yuan/mt, shot up to 15,905 yuan/mt in the morning before pulling back, probed a low of 15,830 yuan/mt and then stabilized again; in the afternoon, after consolidating in a narrow range of 15,855-15,865 yuan/mt, it rose amid consolidation and closed at 15,905 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt, or 0.28%, from the previous trading day's closing price. The full-day trading volume was 47,125 lots, and open interest increased by 4,738 lots to 80,178 lots. The most-traded SHFE lead contract completed the contract rollover to the SHFE lead 2610 contract yesterday. Today, the contract rose with increased open interest, reflecting bullish capital positioning. However, weakness in spot cargo and insufficient essential downstream demand constrained the upside of futures prices; the priority of secondary lead circulating supply, coupled with suppliers holding prices firm, provided support at lower levels. Going forward, it is necessary to track spot cargo transactions and changes in capital and open interest in the SHFE lead 2610 contract. Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are based on public information and market communication, processed by SMM using its internal database model, for reference only, and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

【SMM Nickel Flash】Aug 18 — Flat‑price offers for NPI are scarce. Most transactions are negotiated based on the spot average price, and the price gap between high‑nickel‑grade and low‑nickel‑grade material has narrowed. For holders, willingness to sell at low prices is limited. There are obvious price disagreements between upstream and downstream participants. Actual deals are mostly small‑sized sporadic trades, and large‑volume transactions remain hard to materialize.

SMM learned that on August 18, a channel shared an H100 server supply order with market clients. According to client feedback, the procurement price of complete H100 units was still below 2 million yuan per unit several months ago, while current quotations have risen significantly, and this supply information is circulating among multiple clients. SMM previously learned that in early July, procurement information emerged in the market for 16 brand-new ASUS H100 machines in stock, with a three-year warranty and a quoted price of 2.74 million yuan per unit; during the same period, telecom operator clients also received information on similar supply sources. As the H100 is a mainstay model for high-end computing power, procurement-side prices remain in an upward channel, and quotations continue to rise amid scarce spot supply.

August 18, 2026 Having examined, in the second part of this series, the background to the sharp rise in the price of gold in early August – which came as a surprise to many investors – and focusing on the fundamental drivers behind central banks’ demand for gold, today, in Part 3, we take a closer look at the latest figures: Who is buying A significant increase in the second quarter Following a rather subdued start to the year, central banks significantly stepped up their gold purchases in the second quarter of 2026. According to data from the precious metals dealer Ophirum, central banks increased their reserves by a total of around 289 tonnes of gold between April and the end of June. Compared with the mere 57 tonnes of gold purchased by central banks in the first quarter of 2026, this was not only an extremely sharp rise, but also, as it were, a return to the ‘old’ normality that had prevailed since 2022. According to the latest calculations by the World Gold Council, the total official gold reserves of all central banks worldwide stand at around 36,600 tonnes, reaching an all-time high. At the top of the list of buyers in 2026 are, above all, Poland and China. Poland has steadily increased its holdings as part of a stated strategy to raise the proportion of gold in its own currency reserves to around 20 per cent. China, for its part, reported its twentieth consecutive month of rising gold reserves in May. China’s official gold reserves stood at around 2,331 tonnes at that time. However, it is not just the ‘usual suspects’ who are currently flocking to gold. New groups of buyers are also emerging: according to the World Gold Council , countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia have recently begun to replenish their gold reserves again after a prolonged period of restraint. Not all central banks are buying – an important distinction However, the picture of central banks making massive purchases is not uniform. Turkey, for example, which was still among the largest gold buyers in 2025, has reduced its holdings in the first few months of this year. In January and February 2026 alone, the Turkish central bank reduced its gold holdings by around 8.1 tonnes. Domestic political factors, in particular the use of gold reserves to prop up the country’s own currency, play a role here. The case of Turkey illustrates very well that the purchasing decisions of individual central banks can certainly be driven by short-term and highly country-specific motives. Investors should therefore not simply and indiscriminately assume that every central bank is following the global trend to the same extent. Why these purchases have a structural impact However, what is decisive for the price of gold is not so much individual reports of central bank purchases or sales as the fundamental orientation of their global reserve policy. One aspect deserves particular attention in this regard. It fundamentally distinguishes central banks’ gold purchases from those of institutional and private investors: central banks act as buyers with a particularly long-term orientation who are not very price-sensitive. This means that gold is generally not held for a few weeks or months, but over years or decades. As a result, this demand continuously withdraws supply from the market, regardless of short-term price fluctuations. The World Gold Council’s Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey 2026, mentioned earlier, underscores this trend: 89 per cent of the reserve managers surveyed expect global central bank gold reserves to continue rising, whilst 45 per cent even anticipate an increase within their own institution. Long-term security counts for more than short-term returns The reasons for purchasing are also interesting. The central bankers surveyed cite gold’s proven track record in times of crisis, its long-term preservation of value and the diversification of reserve portfolios away from an excessive concentration on a single currency as the most common motives. This structural, multi-year demand forms an important foundation for the current gold price rally. Whilst it does not explain the short-term price surge in a single trading week, it does explain why many market observers are optimistic about the longer-term trend. Unlike many private investors, who often act pro-cyclically and take profits when prices surge, central banks usually stick to their strategic approach even when the price fluctuates sharply in the short term. For them, the long-term security of gold – proven over centuries – carries far greater weight than any short-term profit, however attractive it may be. In the next part of this series, we turn our attention to the US Federal Reserve itself: why is the Federal Reserve currently facing a monetary policy dilemma between combating inflation and economic weakness, and what does this dilemma mean for gold? Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/central-banks-are-on-a-buying-spree-again-which-countries-are-now-investing-heavily-in-gold

SMM previously learned that on August 18, the market released a spot H100 80G server cluster in Ulanqab, comprising 64 cards and located in a certain operator's data center. The fixed monthly rent was 76,000 yuan per unit per month for a 4-year term and 75,000 yuan per unit per month for a 5-year term; splitting was not supported, relocation was not possible, and channel intermediaries were not accepted. SMM learned that the information had already been circulated among multiple clients. One client wanted to take only 16 units and sign a 3-year fixed-price contract, but the owner was not splitting orders for the time being and was currently trying to assemble a full order. Another client provided feedback that the fixed-price quote was above its own cost line. The release of this 64-card cluster in Ulanqab at a fixed price and its circulation among multiple clients through intermediaries indicated that H100 spot leasing still used price-locked long-term agreements and intermediation as the main transaction methods.

It was recently learned from the Hejin Municipal Bureau of Industry, Information Technology and Science that the Shanxi Provincial Department of Science and Technology has officially approved the establishment of the Shanxi Provincial Laboratory for New Energy Metal Materials, a joint project between Chalco Shanxi New Materials Co., Ltd., three key universities, and two leading magnesium enterprises. This collaboration aims to accelerate the transformation of Shanxi's aluminum and magnesium industry towards the high-end new energy sector. The Shanxi Provincial Laboratory for New Energy Metal Materials is the highest-level innovation platform in the province, focusing on the development needs of new energy vehicles and lightweight energy storage. It will focus on four core research directions: low-carbon smelting, high-performance alloys, precision forming, and solid waste recycling, addressing industry technical pain points and building a complete aluminum-magnesium R&D system. Leveraging the province's most complete aluminum industry chain resources, Chalco Shanxi New Materials will fully utilize its pilot-scale production advantages, collaborating with universities and leading enterprises to focus on tackling "bottleneck" technologies in areas such as battery substrates and lightweight alloys. This will significantly shorten the research and development cycle and achieve integrated development of basic research, technological breakthroughs, and industrial application.

As the world's largest copper producer and consumer, China is facing three major challenges: 1. Upstream resource bottleneck: limited growth in domestic copper ore, with external dependence continuing to climb; 2. Midstream processing challenges: overcapacity in the copper rod and copper pipe & tube industries, enterprises' reliance on exports, and significant transformation pressure on copper plate/sheet and strip; 3. Downstream demand fluctuations: high copper prices suppressing end-use consumption, and new sectors becoming the main growth points. To promote the healthy development of the industry, SMM is taking the lead in compiling , by integrating industry resources and optimizing information sharing, to provide decision-making support for enterprises across the industry chain. Hereby, SMM , together with Shanghai Guochu Logistics Co., Ltd. , sincerely invites enterprises related to the copper industry chain to serve as co-production units and jointly produce the copper industry distribution map, and welcomes renowned enterprises to join! (Click this link to receive a free copy of the distribution map: ) Shanghai Guochu Logistics Co., Ltd. Shanghai Guochu Logistics Co., Ltd. State-owned enterprise bonded warehouse, futures delivery warehouse, dedicated railway line Shanghai Guochu Logistics Co., Ltd. is jointly funded by the State Reserve Materials Regulation Center and public institutions under the Shanghai Bureau of the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration. Relying on the "Guochu" brand, it mainly provides third-party logistics services. Its warehouses are located in Huangdu, Waigaoqiao, and Lingang in Shanghai, and it holds qualifications for bonded warehousing, futures delivery (copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate), and dedicated railway lines. Its business covers comprehensive logistics services including multimodal transport, freight forwarding, and customs declaration and inspection, and it is committed to building a high-quality logistics brand and providing clients with integrated logistics solutions. Contact Zhang Hongxia 137 6129 0128 SMM Co-production Contact Zhang Wencheng 187 6645 7954 zhangwencheng@smm.cn

In 2026 the EU's CBAM crossed from "report-only" into a phase where importers pay real money. This piece lays out the five newly-landed implementing regulations, the timetable and thresholds, and — using hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, coated sheet and other flagship traded steels as its sample — draws a cost map from the official country default values. For the same coil of HRC, Indonesia's carbon cost is about 581 EUR/tonne while the USA's is about 15 EUR/tonne: a near-40× gap.

The Industrial Transition Accelerator (ITA) has launched its India Project Support Programme to advance clean industrial projects towards investment readiness. In the metals sector, India has four commercial-scale steel projects and several pilot projects focused on hydrogen-based reduction and carbon capture. The pipeline includes a 4 million tonne/year low-carbon steel initiative in Maharashtra. The programme also covers five aluminium projects, including renewable-energy-backed smelters and new low-emission production facilities. ITA said progress will depend on the expansion of renewable power and energy-storage capacity.