[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] Capital Flows and SHFE Nickel Resonance Propel SS Futures; Spot Stainless Steel Demand Remains Weak According to SMM news on July 14, SS futures showed a strengthening and upward trend. Driven by the strengthening of SHFE nickel during the night session, combined with the impact of SS's own capital flow fluctuations, SS rebounded quickly after the night session opened, and then maintained a generally strong consolidation pattern. As of the midday close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,565 yuan/mt. In the spot market, boosted by SS's stop falling and strengthening, spot quotations recovered from yesterday afternoon's decline, low-priced sources in the market decreased, some traders raised their quotations, downstream end-user clients remained in a wait-and-see sentiment, and transactions remained mediocre overall. The most-traded SS futures contract. At 10:15 a.m., SS2608 was reported at 14,540 yuan/mt, up 210 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi were in the 330-730 yuan/mt range. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coil, the average price in Wuxi held steady, and the average price in Foshan held steady; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil in Wuxi was flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil, the Wuxi quotation was flat; and cold-rolled 430/2B coil in both Wuxi and Foshan was flat. This week, macro capital flow disturbances intensified, and stainless steel futures moved in an independent weak trend, with market movements significantly diverging from the rhythm of SHFE nickel and other nonferrous metals. During the week, capital sentiment switched repeatedly, causing SS futures to swing wildly. The key support level of 14,500 yuan/mt was breached earlier, and the overall trend center continued to...

[7.14 Morning Meeting Minutes] On the 12th local time, US President Trump said the US carried out “heavy strikes” on Iran the night before. Regarding the navigational status of the Strait of Hormuz, there are disagreements among various parties. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority posted on social media on the 12th, stating that the Strait of Hormuz is currently impassable. Trump, however, said, “As far as the US is concerned, the Strait of Hormuz is still open.” The most-traded SHFE nickel 2609 contract edged down in early trading, closing at 128,030 yuan/mt by the end of the early session, up 0.02%. Over the weekend, the US-Iran conflict took another turn. The simultaneous rise of the US dollar and crude oil weighed on metals, but Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources officially announced on July 10 that it will no longer raise the national nickel ore mining production quota overall. The increase will be very limited, with strict exception approval channels set only for domestic smelters facing severe raw material supply shortages. In the short term, nickel prices may rebound, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract trading in a range of 127,000-133,000 yuan/mt.

[SMM Stainless Steel Daily Review] SHFE Nickel Stops Falling but Fails to Change SS Weakness, Guidance Price Cut Drags Down Stainless Steel Spot Prices According to SMM on July 9, SS futures further pulled back and declined. Although SHFE nickel strengthened and rose, SS remained under pressure from capital flows and continued to decline. As of the close, the most-traded SS contract settled at 14,355 yuan/mt. In the spot market, driven by the consecutive decline in SS futures, a mainstream stainless steel mill cut its guidance price, leading spot quotes to follow suit and decline. Against a backdrop of persistently weak overall market sentiment, transactions remained sluggish. SS Futures Most-Traded Contract: At 10:15 AM, SS2608 was at 14,375 yuan/mt, down 115 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. Spot premiums for 304/2B in Wuxi ranged from 545 to 1,095 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coils in Wuxi remained stable; for cold-rolled raw edge 304/2B coils, the average price in Wuxi fell by 50 yuan/mt, and the average price in Foshan fell by 50 yuan/mt; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coils in Wuxi remained flat; for hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coils, quotes in Wuxi were flat; cold-rolled 430/2B coils in both Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. This week, the tug-of-war between macro and industrial logic dominated the market trend. US inflation data pulled back, expectations for US Fed interest rate hikes further cooled, and the US dollar index weakened, collectively lifting the valuations of commodities and nonferrous metals and providing macro support for the metal sector. However, industrial sentiment remained persistently bearish. The issue of Indonesia's nickel ore supplementary quotas remained unresolved, and the market held strong expectations for ample nickel supply in the future...

July 7, 2026 Has the worst of the selling pressure on gold and silver finally passed? Although the gold price has not yet managed to break through the first resistance level above $4,200, Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank, sees clear signs that the months-long correction is coming to an end. In his view, the market environment is currently shifting from pure liquidation toward a sustainable bottoming-out process, during which precious metals are once again being selectively accumulated. U.S. Monetary Policy as the Key Driver for a Breakout The next major price movement depends largely on macroeconomic conditions. Although the market is still pricing in an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve this year, disappointing labor market data—with only 57,000 new jobs created in June—has already tempered the most aggressive forecasts. In addition, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, recently signaled that inflation risks are subsiding. Speaking to Kitco News, Hansen consequently stated that he does not expect another interest rate hike this year. Falling energy prices and waning inflationary pressure are undermining the basis for a restrictive monetary policy. Once this realization takes hold in the market, a weaker U.S. dollar is likely to give the gold price a massive boost. Technical Correction Phase and Momentum Opportunities for Silver Despite the improvement in fundamentals, gold is still technically in a correction phase and remains 26 percent below its January high. While support below $4,000 has been successfully defended, investors have so far used rallies toward $4,200 to reduce their positions. For a genuine trend reversal, the precious metal must first break above the 200-day moving average at $4,485 as well as the key correction retracement level at $4,574. A similar picture is emerging for silver, which, after the recent selling wave halted in the mid-$50 range, staged a constructive rally above the $60 mark before being capped at $63.27. Silver combines gold’s macroeconomic sensitivity with an extremely tight fundamental environment characterized by multi-year supply deficits and rising industrial demand. Due to its smaller market size, the white metal remains highly attractive to momentum investors, but its heavy reliance on short-term capital flows means it still requires strong nerves in the face of sudden shifts in market sentiment. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/is-the-sell-off-over-gold-and-silver-may-be-on-the-verge-of-their-next-breakout

[SMM Tin Midday Review: The Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Consolidated at Highs and Tested 410,000, While Spot Market Trading Was Sluggish]

[SMM Tin Midday Commentary: Disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls Trigger US Dollar Plunge, Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Tests 400,000 Yuan Level Again]

Raw material side, spot lithium carbonate and nickel sulphate prices fluctuated this week, while cobalt sulphate prices fell steadily.

Published: Jun 20, 2026 - 5:42 AM (Kitco News) - Gold prices have tumbled after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered what many investors interpreted as a hawkish debut, but at least one market strategist argues the precious metal's longer-term outlook remains intact. In commentary following Warsh's first press conference as Fed chair, Rebecca Ivaldi, Market Strategist at FCT Capital Partners and former Lehman Brothers analyst, said markets may be overestimating the central bank's willingness to keep monetary policy restrictive and underestimating the structural forces supporting gold demand. The precious metal came under pressure after Warsh repeatedly emphasized the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability. During the press conference, Warsh described inflation as a burden on American households and declared that the Federal Open Market Committee was "unambiguous and unanimous" in its determination to restore price stability. However, Ivaldi argues that beneath the hawkish rhetoric were several signals suggesting a less restrictive policy path than markets initially assumed. "The knee-jerk algorithmic reaction to the press conference was exactly what we saw in January right after the news broke that Warsh had been picked -- Hawk in the Fed equals Gold Down," she wrote. "But this short-term speculative reaction is almost entirely irrelevant in my view." One of the key points highlighted by Ivaldi was Warsh's discussion of housing markets. During the press conference, the Fed chair acknowledged that monetary policy appeared "somewhat restrictive" in housing, while describing the broader impact of policy across the economy as "uneven." Ivaldi interpreted those comments as evidence that Warsh may be more concerned about overly restrictive borrowing costs than his public messaging suggests. She also pointed to Warsh's skepticism toward traditional inflation measures and his decision to launch a review of the Fed's data-gathering framework. During the press conference, Warsh announced a task force to examine new data sources and improve the quality and timeliness of economic information available to policymakers. He argued that many official statistics rely on outdated survey methods and that policymakers need more real-time information about economic conditions. According to Ivaldi, that effort suggests the Fed may ultimately conclude that underlying inflation pressures are less severe than headline data currently indicate. She contends that once temporary energy-related distortions are removed, inflation is already much closer to the Fed's target than widely believed. Another point attracting attention was Warsh's treatment of the Fed's so-called "dot plot." Although the latest projections showed a significant number of policymakers expecting higher rates by year-end, Warsh downplayed the importance of those forecasts, noting that participants effectively submitted their projections in pencil and could easily revise them as conditions change. Ivaldi argues that the chairman's remarks undermine the market's assumption that the Fed is preparing for additional tightening. She noted that Warsh confirmed there was no active discussion of raising rates at the current meeting and emphasized the uncertainty surrounding future policy decisions. For gold investors, however, Ivaldi believes the more important story lies beyond Fed policy. She argues that geopolitical developments in the Middle East and the gradual evolution of non-dollar trade arrangements continue to support long-term demand for physical gold. Ivaldi explained that the reopening of energy trade routes could restore flows in which Middle Eastern trade surpluses are converted into physical gold through Chinese markets, creating a structural source of demand largely independent of short-term interest-rate expectations. Ivaldi also maintains that rising sovereign debt burdens and pressure on government financing costs ultimately limit how restrictive monetary policy can become. In her view, policymakers face increasing incentives to keep Treasury yields contained, a backdrop that historically has been supportive for hard assets such as gold. Warsh himself offered little guidance on the future path of rates, repeatedly stressing that the Fed had abandoned formal forward guidance and would remain focused on incoming data. He also emphasized that the central bank's credibility would ultimately be measured by its ability to deliver price stability rather than by its rhetoric. For now, gold traders appear focused on the chairman's inflation-fighting language. But Ivaldi argues that investors should pay closer attention to what she sees as the deeper forces reshaping global capital flows. "The jawboning works for a few days, but the underlying plumbing tells the real story," she said. “The dollar is left less fungible for international trade, not more, the sovereign debt burden remains massive, and the long-term structural case for gold has only grown stronger. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-06-19/golds-post-fed-selloff-may-be-missing-bigger-picture-says-former-lehman

June 17, 2026 Despite a sharp 26 percent drop in prices during the Iran conflict, Barclays believes the long-term upward trend for gold remains intact. The British bank attributes the recent slump to temporary market forces, while structural price drivers such as inflation and central bank purchases persist. Temporary Factors Overshadow Safe-Haven Role Between January and June, gold lost massive value—an unusual pattern, as geopolitical crises typically boost demand for safe havens. According to Barclays’ Cross-Asset Research Team, however, this role was overshadowed by massive macroeconomic headwinds. A strong U.S. dollar and rising real interest rates weighed heavily on the precious metal, as the market quickly priced out the Federal Reserve’s previously anticipated interest rate cuts. At the same time, the rally in the stock markets—fueled by a roughly 10 percent rise in the S&P 500—tied up considerable risk capital. According to Barclays, however, these factors explain only part of the price decline. The greatest downward momentum stemmed from the massive unwinding of leveraged gold positions, which was further accelerated by simultaneous sales by the Russian and Turkish central banks . Investors were driven by higher yields, causing short-term capital flows to dictate prices. Structural Drivers Justify Premium Analysts, however, view these headwinds as temporary. With the foreseeable easing of tensions in the Middle East, fundamental price drivers are likely to regain the upper hand. These include persistent inflationary pressure, monetary policy uncertainties, and the continued diversification of government currency reserves. Barclays quantifies this effect clearly: historically, every additional percentage point of inflation increases the price of gold by about five percent. The bank currently estimates the fair value of the precious metal at $4,150 per ounce and anticipates a reversal in the near future. This is contingent on the U.S. dollar resuming its long-term downward trend and central banks returning to sustained gold purchases. Forecast Confirmed: Winners in the Mining Sector Accordingly, Barclays is sticking to its ambitious price targets: The bank expects the gold price to reach $4,791 per ounce by 2026, rising to $4,900 by the end of 2027. However, the bank does not rule out short-term price fluctuations until the trend ultimately reverses. According to analysts’ estimates, established gold producers such as Endeavour, Hochschild, Fresnillo, Newmont, and Agnico Eagle are likely to benefit most from this bullish scenario. The key question for the sector now is whether the expected recovery in the gold price will quickly translate into higher profit margins. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-price-analysts-expect-a-rebound-to-nearly-usd4-800

\LME aluminium prices have retreated steadily from their late-May peak, falling from nearly $3,680 per metric ton to around $3,480 per metric ton. More notably, the LME aluminium Cash-3M spread narrowed sharply over just one week, dropping from a cash premium of $104.56 per metric ton on June 1 to $15.17 per metric ton on June 9, a loss of nearly $90 per metric ton. This marks the steepest contraction in the backwardation structure since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict.