According to POSCO’s Q1 2026 earnings call, the company has introduced its third interim shareholder return policy and shifted from a free-cash-flow-based approach to a more earnings-linked framework. The new policy targets a shareholder return ratio of 35%-40% of adjusted net profit attributable to controlling interests, to be delivered through a mix of cash dividends and share buybacks or cancellations. POSCO said the change is intended to improve payout visibility while balancing growth investment and shareholder returns.

Around April 23, 2026, import and export data for cobalt and lithium battery industry chain products in March were released. Data showed that March spodumene imports rebounded significantly from February, hitting a new record high of 837,400 mt in physical content. Lithium carbonate side, China imported 29,974 mt of lithium carbonate in March, up 13% MoM and up 65% YoY.......SMM compiled the import and export data for battery materials as follows: Upstream Lithium Concentrates Customs data showed that March spodumene imports rebounded significantly from February, hitting a new record high of 837,400 mt in physical content. By source country: African ore arrivals increased notably — Nigeria imports reached 125,100 mt, up 63% MoM; Zimbabwe shipments from earlier periods arrived at ports in the month totaling 112,600 mt, up 61% MoM; Canada broke the zero-import situation in January-February with 58,600 mt arriving in March; while Australian ore volumes declined MoM due to shipping schedule impacts. According to SMM's screening and analysis, total port arrivals this month were equivalent to 81,000 mt LCE. Lithium concentrates accounted for 72% of the month's imports, down slightly compared to the same period last year, mainly due to the notable increase in South African raw ore port arrivals recently. Notably, driven by prices and local beneficiation plant development, Nigerian ore volumes increased significantly, with not only raw ore volumes rising markedly but also concentrates share increasing notably YoY. Source: China Customs, compiled by SMM Spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot pricing side, according to SMM spot prices, March spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices showed a V-shaped trend, dropping to a low of $2,028/mt at month-end, then rebounding to $2,313/mt at month-end, with a monthly average of $2,081.4/mt. According to SMM, in March, spodumene and lepidolite profit trends diverged, with structural cost differences among lithium chemicals enterprises becoming evident. Available spodumene volumes were tight, ore traders held back from selling, and inventory continued to be drawn down. Enterprises purchasing spodumene externally suffered losses on spot margins throughout the month, with non-integrated enterprises facing greater difficulties in hedging and procurement. Entering April, spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices also showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery. Recently, spodumene concentrates prices continued to probe higher. As of April 27, spodumene concentrates (CIF China) spot prices rose to $2,507/mt, up $194/mt from $2,313/mt at end-March, an increase of 8.39%. According to SMM's recent research, driven by market expectations of improving future demand, speculative sentiment in the lithium carbonate futures market remained strong, pushing futures prices up. Lithium ore merchants showed increased willingness to sell, with pricing-against-futures prices staying high. Looking ahead, lithium chemical plant operating rates stay high, with demand for lithium ore continuing to climb. Meanwhile, Zimbabwe has suspended spodumene exports for nearly two months, leading to persistently tight available lithium ore supply in the market. Overall, spodumene prices are expected to hold up well. Lithium Carbonate According to customs data, China imported 29,974 mt of lithium carbonate in March, up 13% MoM and up 65% YoY. By source, the top 3 were Chile (18,000 mt, 61%), Argentina (8,292 mt, 28%), and Indonesia (2,100 mt, 7%). From January to March, China's cumulative lithium carbonate imports reached 83,000 mt, up 65% YoY cumulatively. China exported 448 mt of lithium carbonate in March, down 25% MoM and up 104% YoY. From January to March, China's cumulative lithium carbonate exports totaled 1,516 mt, up 46% YoY cumulatively. According to SMM spot quotes, lithium carbonate showed a volatile trend of first declining then rising in March. As of March 31, the average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 163,000 yuan/mt, with a monthly average price of 156,700 yuan/mt. According to SMM analysis, spot lithium carbonate prices in China showed a significantly volatile upward trend in March, with the monthly average price up 5% MoM. Fundamentals-wise, supply side, production gradually recovered as maintenance ended, and lithium chemical plants showed increased willingness to sell spot orders at the relatively high level around 170,000 yuan/mt; demand side, downstream cathode material producers basically adopted a dip-buying strategy, with strong purchase willingness at price levels around 140,000 to 150,000 yuan/mt. As demand continued to improve, some enterprises engaged in large-scale restocking at low levels. In March, battery-grade spot lithium carbonate prices rose to 172,500 yuan/mt at the beginning of the month and pulled back to around 163,000 yuan/mt at month-end. Recently, battery-grade lithium carbonate spot quotes stayed high above 170,000 yuan. As of April 28, battery-grade lithium carbonate spot quotes were at 172,000-177,000 yuan/mt, with an average price of 174,500 yuan/mt. According to SMM, in today's spot lithium carbonate market, as lithium carbonate prices declined, downstream purchase enthusiasm picked up, with some buyers' target prices basically around 170,000 to 175,000 yuan/mt; upstream spot order quotes remained at high levels. Overall, market inquiries and transactions were relatively active. Looking ahead, the supply side presents mixed signals: Huayou in Zimbabwe announced the successful shipment of lithium sulfate over the weekend, which may ease some supply anxiety in the short term; however, disruptions from mine license renewals in Jiangxi persisted, Middle East geopolitical fluctuations pushed up diesel costs, and some Australian mines confirmed cost increases in their Q1 quarterly reports. Although actual mining has not been affected yet, medium and long-term supply elasticity may be impacted. Demand side, LFP capacity release and the peak season for new car model deliveries in Q2 are expected to continue boosting lithium carbonate demand. Overall, cost support and demand expectations are resonating, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain on a relatively strong trend in Q2. Lithium Hydroxide According to customs data, in March 2026, China imported 6,111 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 66% MoM and up 200% YoY. Of this, 2,927 mt came from Indonesia, accounting for approximately 48% of imports, with another 40% from Australia and South Korea. In March, China exported 3,143 mt of lithium hydroxide, up 20% MoM and down 26% YoY, of which 2,059 mt were exported to South Korea and 278 mt to Japan. Battery Materials Ternary Cathode Material In March 2026, China's ternary cathode material (NCM and NCA combined) exports reached 21,900 mt, up 103% MoM and up 163% YoY. Of this, NCM exports were 20,900 mt, accounting for 96%. In terms of export destinations, South Korea was the largest importer of NCM, with March imports of 8,500 mt; Poland, Malaysia, and Japan ranked second, third, and fourth at 3,720 mt, 2,409 mt, and 2,363 mt respectively. In addition, Germany's imports saw significant growth compared to the same period last year. China's ternary cathode material exports hit a record high in March, mainly driven by the cancellation of China's 13% VAT export rebate policy for ternary cathode material effective April 1. Four leading battery cell manufacturers in Japan and South Korea placed orders in advance, boosting demand not only for their domestic plants but also for their battery cell production sites in Southeast Asia and Europe. Beyond the rebate policy impact, EV subsidy policies in Europe also fueled strong demand growth, driving up China's ternary cathode material exports. Among them, the Nordic countries led in EV penetration rate thanks to the most generous subsidies; the UK, France, and Germany continued to serve as important sources of NEV sales support. In contrast, US NEV sales declined notably in Q1, down nearly 30% YoY, significantly impacting Q1 orders for some ex-China battery cell manufacturers targeting the North American market. Looking ahead to Q2, Europe is expected to remain the largest source of incremental ex-China ternary cathode material demand. Despite some disruption from the tax rebate policy, as more battery cell manufacturers and ternary cathode producers plan to complete construction and commence production this year and next, the outlook for European market demand remains optimistic. LiPF6 According to China Customs data, in March 2026, China's cumulative LiPF6 exports totaled approximately 4,554 mt, up approximately 161% MoM, while cumulative imports were approximately 31 mt. Export side, China's LiPF6 exports in March 2026 were approximately 4,554 mt, up approximately 161% MoM from February and up approximately 188.8% YoY. Specifically, as the VAT rebate policy for LiPF6 exports was officially canceled starting April 1, 2026, enterprises rushed to export in advance in March, driving MoM increases in exports to multiple major destination countries. Among them, exports to Poland were 1,723.602 mt (up approximately 693.63% MoM), South Korea 1,099.429 mt (up approximately 184.26% MoM), Czech Republic 460.5 mt (up approximately 237.36% MoM), and Malaysia 249.346 mt (up approximately 141.39% MoM). However, exports to the US declined — 266.146 mt (down approximately 53.70% MoM). Artificial Graphite In March 2026, China's artificial graphite imports were 673 mt, up 0.6% MoM and down 34.1% YoY. Average import price in March 2026 was 61,696 yuan/mt, up 3.9% MoM and up 10.6% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In March 2026, China's artificial graphite exports were 37,525 mt, up 6% MoM and down 16% YoY. Average export price in March 2026 was 9,866 yuan/mt, up 14.4% MoM and down 7% YoY. Flake Graphite In March 2026, China's flake graphite imports were 3,905 mt, up 11% MoM and up 45% YoY. Data source: China Customs, SMM In March 2026, China's flake graphite exports were 8,118 mt, up 35% MoM and up 65% YoY. Phosphate Ore According to customs data, China's phosphate ore imports in March 2026 were 182,000 mt. March imports rose 88.2% from February's 97,000 mt, up 144.4% YoY from 75,000 mt; March total import value was $14.552 million, up 74.6% MoM from February's $8.336 million. Unit price was $79.9/mt, down 7.2% significantly from February's $86.1/mt. In March, China's phosphate ore imports mainly came from Egypt and Pakistan, with imports of 170,000 mt and 12,000 mt respectively. Affected by factors related to the Strait of Hormuz, Jordanian phosphate ore failed to be imported, though imports from other regions filled the gap. Due to hindered transportation of high-priced Jordanian phosphate ore and lack of import volume support, March phosphate ore import unit price declined from February, pulling back to below $80/mt. Cobalt Cobalt Hydrometallurgy Intermediate Products In March 2026, China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products imports were approximately 1,690 mt in physical content, down 26% MoM and down 97% YoY. Among them, imports from DRC were approximately 1,668 mt in physical content, up 10% MoM and down 97% YoY. In March 2026, the average import price of China's cobalt hydrometallurgy intermediate products was $16,730/mt in physical content, up 2.92% MoM. It was learned that cobalt intermediate products export volume from DRC increased notably in March. If the government maintains this efficient approval pace going forward, quotas for Q4 2025 and Q1/Q2 2026 will most likely be exported within the stipulated timeframe, reducing the probability of further delays. However, shipping in Africa is currently tight, with only a few miners completing small-batch vessel bookings in April. Based on a 1-2 month shipping time from South Africa to China, these intermediate products are expected to arrive at port in May-June, while intermediate products from other miners are not expected to arrive until around July. Unwrought Cobalt In March 2026, China's unwrought cobalt imports were approximately 961 mt, down 44% MoM and up 83% YoY. March imports remained at a relatively high level, mainly due to continued arrivals of export orders placed during the import window opening from late December 2025 to mid-January 2026. On average import price, China's unwrought cobalt average import price in March 2026 was $50,346/mt, up 10% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to March 2026 totaled 4,582 mt, up 206% YoY cumulatively. It was learned that as the import window gradually closed after mid-to-late January 2026, overseas traders' export willingness weakened, and refined cobalt imports in April may continue to decline MoM. Exports, China's unwrought cobalt exports in March 2026 were approximately 413 mt, up 32% MoM and down 69% YoY. By country, China's exports to the US rose slightly, with 280 mt exported to the US in March, up 13% MoM. Average export price, China's average export price of unwrought cobalt in March 2026 was $51,596/mt, down 3% MoM. Cumulative imports from January to March 2026 totaled 1,574 mt, down 52% YoY cumulatively.

[Stagflation Expectations Heat Up Combined with China Inventory Buildup, Divergence Between SHFE and LME Aluminum Continues] Overall, geopolitical risks outside China persisted and supply tightened, keeping LME aluminum prices on a relatively strong footing; high inventory levels in China combined with weak demand limited SHFE upside room, with a clear divergence between SHFE and LME price trends.

In-depth Interpretation & Review of Indonesia’s Aluminum Industry Policies Centering on bauxite and extending to the entire aluminum industrial chain, the Indonesian government has rolled out a series of policies focusing on three core dimensions: volume control, pricing mechanisms, and tax rates. These measures aim to gradually improve the regulatory system, standardize industrial development, and accelerate the transformation from raw ore exports to integrated domestic downstream aluminum production. This article sorts out relevant policy details and their impacts in detail as follows: I. Volume Control: Strengthen Quota Management & Full-process Digital Supervision to Achieve Precise Supply Regulation ① Bauxite Quota: RKAB Approval Cycle Adjusted to Enhance Government Regulation Capacity Regulation Capacity Indonesia standardizes the full-process mining and sales of bauxite across all mines via the RKAB (Mining Work Plan and Budget) system. The core policy adjustment focuses on optimizing the approval cycle, mainly based on Permen ESDM No.17/2025 issued by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) on October 3, 2025. New regulations shall be officially implemented starting from 2026: Approval Cycle Revision: The RKAB approval model for all mining enterprises is changed from once every three years to annual application and annual approval. Mines must submit RKAB applications for the next year between October 1 and November 15 each year, with all approvals completed by the end of the year to guarantee orderly production in the subsequent year. Transition & Application Timeline: In Q1 2026, if the new annual RKAB quota is still under review, the original 2026 quota can be adopted temporarily. Quota adjustment applications for the current year shall be submitted by the end of July annually, while the centralized submission window for the next year’s quota is set from October 1 to November 15, forming a dual management model of annual approval plus dynamic adjustment. Scenario Analysis & Policy Impacts Original Three-Year Approval Model: Unable to accurately forecast market demand for the next two years, this model easily triggers supply-demand mismatches and overall oversupply, putting downward pressure on bauxite prices. It also limits flexible government regulation, resulting in significant policy lag as quotas cannot be adjusted timely in response to market changes. New Annual Approval Model: The government gains stronger annual regulatory authority to dynamically adjust total annual quotas based on international bauxite prices, global supply-demand fundamentals and domestic smelting demand, improving price stability. Meanwhile, it strengthens fiscal revenue guarantees and regulatory efficiency through a more transparent and streamlined approval process, reduces rent-seeking behaviors, and advances compliant industrial development. ② SIMBARA System: Full-chain Digital Supervision to Curb Illegal Mineral Trading In accordance with Perpres 94/2025 (Presidential Regulation No.94/2025), the SIMBARA system (Inter-Ministerial Mineral and Coal Information System) officially incorporated bauxite into its regulatory scope in 2025, establishing a full-process digital supervision system covering operations from mines to end users. Through the SIMBARA official portal, the Indonesian government tracks real-time bauxite sales data and monitors the entire transportation chain from mining to downstream processing, including inter-island logistics, with precise linkage to mining quotas. It covers all key links: mining sites, processing, transportation and exports. The implementation of this system not only aligns Indonesian bauxite mining with global industry standards, but also effectively restrains irregular activities such as illegal mining, child labor and environmental damage, promoting green and compliant development of the sector. All bauxite mines are required to submit full-operation documents via the SIMBARA system, including production reports, inventory statements and raw material procurement records, for joint reviews by four core authorities: the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Trade, and Ministry of Transportation. The mechanism realizes data sharing, joint supervision and full traceability. II. Tax Rate: Standardize Billing Rules & Optimize Tax Burden Structure ① Indonesia’s Bauxite Tax Framework: Fixed Fee + Ad Valorem Royalty The country’s bauxite taxation policy adopts a dual structure of fixed administrative fees and floating royalties, clarifying differentiated charging rules for various mining rights. Combined with revisions to the HPM pricing mechanism, the overall tax burden structure has been optimized. Fixed Fee: Paid in a lump sum on an annual basis Core Formula: Fixed Fee = Mining Concession Area × Corresponding Unit Rate Floating Royalty: Charged per sales transaction and highly linked to commodity prices Core Formula: Royalty = Sales Volume × Transaction Price × Applicable Rate Transaction bonuses and premiums shall be included in invoice amounts for unified tax calculation; Pricing benchmark confirmation: If the premium is negative (actual transaction price benchmark price), tax calculation shall adopt HPM plus premium. Calculation Example Assume HPM = USD 44/ton, bauxite indicators: Al₂O₃=49%, Reactive Silica=2%. Actual transaction price: USD 35/ton (Premium = -9 USD/ton), Bonus = USD 1/ton, net transaction price = USD 36/ton. Given the negative premium, royalty is calculated based on HPM: Royalty = 44 USD/ton × 7% (standard bauxite royalty rate) = 3.08 USD/ton. ② Revised HPM Pricing Mechanism Effective April 15, 2026 (Kepmen ESDM No. 144/2026) Core Revisions: Pricing unit adjusted: Dry Metric Ton (DMT) → Wet Metric Ton (WMT) New deduction factor: Reactive Silica (R-SiO₂) New moisture adjustment clause added Regulators require bauxite enterprises to cooperate with inspection institutions and add key indicators including alumina content, reactive silica and moisture content to official Certificate of Analysis (COA). Data updates on the e-PNBP and MVP systems are also mandated to ensure accurate royalty calculation. The revised HPM mechanism lowers benchmark prices and overall royalty costs, reducing comprehensive bauxite mining costs and accelerating mine shipments as well as downstream industrial integration layouts. ③ Optimized HPM Pricing Cycle: Higher Flexibility to Align with Global Markets The pricing cycle has been shortened to reduce policy lag and better reflect LME aluminum price fluctuations. Old Rules (Before March 1, 2025): Monthly single HPM release. The pricing reference window covered the 20th of the month before last to the 19th of the previous month, with a pricing lag of around 45 days, failing to reflect timely international price changes. New Rules (Effective March 1, 2025): Semi-monthly HPM releases on the 1st and 15th of each month. 1st Issue (1st of each month): Calculated by average LME aluminum spot prices from the 5th to the 25th of the prior month (21-day cycle, 5-day lag); 2nd Issue (15th of each month): Calculated by average LME aluminum spot prices from the 26th of the prior month to the 4th of the current month (10-day cycle, 5-day lag). Core Benefits Improved market sensitivity: The shortened cycle enables HPM to reflect real-time LME movements, strengthens linkage with global pricing, and avoids price distortion caused by long-term average calculations; Optimized revenue management: The government can adjust domestic mineral benchmark prices more precisely in response to global aluminum volatility, balancing reasonable profit margins for mining enterprises and stable national tax revenue. III. Pricing Policy: Abolish HPM Floor Price to Boost Market Circulation & Downstream Development A landmark adjustment in Indonesia’s bauxite price regulation is the cancellation of the mandatory HPM minimum settlement price, implemented in phases to balance fiscal revenue and market vitality. Old Regulation (Kepmen ESDM No.72/2025): Bauxite transaction prices were strictly prohibited from falling below HPM. This rule triggered supply-demand imbalance, sluggish ore sales and suspended shipments by major miners, severely restricting normal market circulation. New Regulation (Kepmen ESDM No.268/2025): Signed on August 8, 2025, and officially implemented in late August 2025. The core revision abolishes the HPM floor price and allows transactions below benchmark prices. Nevertheless, taxes and royalties are still calculated based on standard HPM values to shield national fiscal revenue from price declines. Core Advantages of the Revised Policy Government Perspective: HPM-based tax collection guarantees stable fiscal revenue independent of market fluctuations. Loosened price controls revitalize trading activity, resolve the supply glut dilemma, support mine capacity expansion and local employment, and secure long-term industrial stability. Industrial Perspective: Discounted transactions ease inventory pressure for miners and accelerate capital turnover. Lower raw material procurement costs reduce production expenses for domestic smelters, incentivize downstream capacity commissioning, and help Indonesia achieve its 2040 strategic goal of full aluminum chain integration.

China's March silver (unwrought silver ingots with purity ≥99.99%, HS code 71069110) imports reached 398.62 mt, up 93% MoM, fulfilling expectations of rising silver ingot imports. Cumulative imports from January to March 2026 totaled 639.91 mt, surging 5,346% from 11.75 mt in the same period of 2025. Historical Comparison: Similarities and Differences Between Two Import Windows Historically, in 2023, surging PV demand widened silver price spreads in and outside China, and silver imports grew significantly (imports in June 2023 surged 5,329%). The similarity between this round and the historical pattern lies in the short-term surge in PV industry demand — in 2023, it was driven by the scaled-up commissioning of silver powder and silver paste capacity, while in 2026, it was driven by PV export rush stockpiling. Both were underpinned by rigid demand for industrial physical silver. The difference is that in 2026, precious metals experienced a rare bull market driven by both industrial demand and interest rate cut cycles. Retail investment demand exacerbated industrial raw material shortages, and China's spot silver ingot market saw significant premiums, boosting physical import profitability. In addition to silver ingots, silver-containing products and crude silver raw materials also entered China in large volumes as semi-manufactured products, which were then processed into silver ingots for circulation. Drivers of the Import Surge This Round 1. PV Export Rush Stockpiling Solar cell and module manufacturers needed to complete order deliveries before the export tax rebate cancellation on April 1. Intermediate processing segments stockpiled large volumes of raw materials in Q1, with certain manufacturers being the core drivers of the industrial import surge. 2. Retail Investment Demand Against the macro backdrop of global interest rate cuts, US debt crisis concerns, and safe-haven demand in Q1, gold and silver became important asset allocation options, with silver gaining popularity as a "gold alternative." After gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, small-denomination investment silver bars were heavily traded as alternatives to high-priced gold investments. 3. Sustained Arbitrage Window Domestic silver prices, driven by robust demand, were significantly higher than London spot prices. Stable SHFE silver premiums prompted global traders to ship silver to China for arbitrage. Some silver ingots exported through China's processing trade were not shipped to Europe or the US but were instead re-imported by traders directly into the Shenzhen market, forming a unique "export-to-domestic sales" pathway. Q2 Outlook: Pulse-Like Rally Fades Entering Q2, the explosive import growth is expected to be unsustainable. Although China's silver prices still carried a premium over London, physical demand and spot premiums had shifted, with some traders' imported silver ingots already experiencing sluggish sales in late March. The demand side weakened simultaneously. Both industrial and investment demand in China declined, and the spot market softened further. After the PV export rush ended, silver nitrate manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm dropped sharply; silver prices moving sideways and uncertainty over Middle East conflicts cooled investment enthusiasm, with funds previously flowing into the precious metals market redirected to high-momentum markets such as the US dollar, US Treasuries, and crude oil. China's silver ingot market transitioned from "scarce supply" in April to "trading at discounts with no takers," and as month-end approached, suppliers were forced to cut premiums for bulk shipments or transfer inventory to participate in SHFE deliveries. Profit margins were sharply compressed. The spot premiums, which peaked at 3,650 yuan/kg in February, had pulled back to near parity by April. Some suppliers sold at discounts due to cash flow needs, import silver ingot profits declined significantly, and the arbitrage window disappeared. Overall, the record-breaking silver imports in Q1 were a "pulse-like" rally driven by both retail investment fever and PV export rush stockpiling. As both drivers faded simultaneously, combined with assessments of actual trade market orders, imports in April are expected to pull back.

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Easing Costs and Sluggish Demand Keep Aluminum Alloy Prices in the Doldrums] Last Friday, the ADC12 market was generally in the doldrums. As aluminum prices weakened, cost support eased, and some enterprises actively lowered their quoted prices.

China's imports of silver (unwrought silver ingots with purity ≥99.99%, HS code 71069110) reached 398.62 mt in March, up 93% MoM from February, fulfilling expectations that silver ingot imports would maintain their upward momentum. Total silver imports from January to March 2026 reached 639.91 mt, up 5,346% YoY compared with 11.75 mt in Q1 2025. Historically, against the backdrop of a sharp increase in demand from China's PV industry in 2023, the price gap between the Chinese and international silver markets gradually widened, and silver imports also surged significantly. () The similarity between this round of silver ingot import window opening and the historical one lies in the short-term surge in PV industry demand — 2023 marked the initial large-scale commissioning of silver powder and silver paste capacity, while 2026 saw short-term stockpiling demand driven by the PV export rush. Behind both import windows was rigid demand for physical silver in industrial production. The difference, however, is that in 2026, precious metals experienced a rare bull market driven by both industrial demand and the interest rate cut cycle, with retail investment demand further tightening already scarce industrial raw materials. As a result, significant spot premiums emerged in China's spot silver ingot market, boosting profits from physical imports. It is understood that in addition to silver ingots, silver-containing products and crude silver raw materials also entered the Chinese market in large quantities as semi-manufactured products for further processing into silver ingots and market circulation. Specifically, the driving factors behind this round of import surge were: 1. PV industry export rush stockpiling Solar cell and module manufacturers needed to complete order deliveries before the export tax rebate cancellation on April 1, leading to massive raw material stockpiling by midstream processing firms in Q1, with some individual manufacturers being the core drivers of the industrial import surge. 2. Retail investment demand: Against the macro backdrop of global interest rate cuts, US debt crisis concerns, and safe-haven demand in Q1, gold and silver became important asset allocation options, with silver gaining popularity as a "gold alternative." After gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, small-denomination investment silver bars were heavily traded as an alternative to high-priced gold. 3. Sustained arbitrage window Driven by robust demand, Chinese silver prices were significantly higher than London spot prices. With stable SHFE silver premiums, global traders were incentivized to ship silver to China for arbitrage. Even silver ingots exported through China's processing trade were not shipped to Europe or the US but were instead re-imported by traders directly into the Shenzhen market, forming a unique "export-to-domestic-sales" pathway. Q2 outlook: Entering Q2, the explosive growth in silver ingot imports is unlikely to sustain. Although Chinese silver ingots still carry a premium over London prices, demand for physical silver ingots and spot premiums have changed, with some traders' imported silver ingots already experiencing sluggish sales since late March. On one hand, domestic industrial and investment demand declined simultaneously, and the spot market weakened further. After the PV export rush orders ended, silver nitrate manufacturers' purchasing enthusiasm dropped sharply. Additionally, as silver prices moved sideways and uncertainties from Middle East conflicts dampened precious metals investment sentiment, funds that had previously flowed into the precious metals market shifted back to high-momentum markets such as US dollar, US Treasuries, and crude oil. Chinese silver ingots gradually transitioned from "hard to find" in April to "trading at discounts with no buyers." Approaching month-end, suppliers began lowering premiums to offload inventory or transfer stock for SHFE delivery. On the other hand, import profit margins were significantly compressed, mainly because spot premiums, which peaked at 3,650 yuan/kg in February, had pulled back to near parity by April. Some suppliers even sold at discounts due to cash flow needs, causing import silver ingot profits to decline sharply and the arbitrage window to close. Overall, the record-breaking silver imports in Q1 this year were a "pulse-like" event driven by both retail investment enthusiasm and PV stockpiling rush. As both driving factors fade simultaneously, combined with an assessment of actual import order performance in the trade market, imports in April are expected to pull back.

[Inventory Trends Diverge Significantly in and outside China; Aluminum Prices Continue LME-Outperforms-SHFE Pattern] Negotiations in the Middle East experienced repeated twists and turns, and geopolitical risks had not yet fully been cleared. However, the widening supply gap outside China and the steady drawdown of LME inventory jointly supported LME aluminum prices in holding up well. In China, social inventory of aluminum ingots remained at elevated levels, with the strength of demand recovery and the pace of inventory drawdown becoming the core variables influencing SHFE price trends.

China's March silver imports hit a record high, as retail investors' buying frenzy and concentrated stockpiling by the PV industry jointly pushed imports far above seasonal averages. Analysts warned that this explosive growth is unlikely to sustain. According to China's customs data, China imported approximately 836 mt of silver in March, nearly triple the past 10-year March average of approximately 306 mt. This import surge was driven by two overlapping demand forces: retail investors purchasing small-sized silver bars as substitutes for high-priced gold, and PV manufacturers rushing to stockpile ahead of the April 1 export tax rebate cancellation. China's silver prices were significantly higher than international benchmark prices driven by robust demand, prompting traders worldwide to ship silver to China for arbitrage, with Hong Kong serving as the primary transit channel. Explosive Imports Unlikely to Sustain However, import momentum already faced multiple cooling factors. Retail side, gold and silver prices retreated from highs set in January. The energy crisis triggered by the Iran war intensified market concerns over inflation, dragging down the performance of zero-yield precious metals, and the momentum of retail bandwagon buying also weakened accordingly. Industrial side, the PV industry consumed approximately one-fifth of global annual supply, with capacity highly concentrated in China. However, this demand pillar was also under pressure, as policy statements signaled curbing overcapacity in the PV industry. Meanwhile, silver prices remained at a relatively high level, potentially prompting the industry to shift toward cheaper base metals as substitutes for silver. Wu Zijie, an analyst at Shenzhen Jinrui Futures, stated that "explosive imports will certainly not continue," and future import flows will return to normal levels. He noted that given China is the world's largest silver producer, there is no basis for long-term imbalance in silver supply and demand.

【SMM Steel】The USDOC rescinded an AD review on UK cold-rolled steel flat products after finding no subject goods entered the US during the Sep 1, 2024 - Aug 31, 2025 review period. US producers requested the investigation in Sep 2025, and the USDOC initiated a review in Dec. With no opposition to its Dec 18 intent to revoke, the cancellation was finalized. The absence of import transactions removed the basis for continued action. The inquiry into UK cold-rolled steel imports has concluded.