Published: Aug 13, 2026 - 1:26 AM (Kitco News) – Spot gold will trade on either side of $4,500 per ounce at the end of 2026, according to a new survey published by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). The LBMA surveyed 16 professional analysts in July, and even as gold was trading at its 2026 lows, frequently dipping below $4,000 per ounce during the month, the average of the experts’ year-end price predictions was over 12% higher. The highest year-end prediction from the survey’s respondents was $5,100 per ounce, representing a gain of an additional 15% from current prices, while the lowest forecast was $3,879, $100 below the 2026 low set in early July. “The average price during [the first 7 month of 2026] was $4,595.75, some $135 below the average (for the whole year) predicted by 28 professional analysts polled by LBMA in January,” they noted. “The mid-year pulse check provides an update to these figures and reveals that expectations have come into line with the reality of the first seven months.” The LBMA said the projected full-year average gold price is now $4,604, with forecasted price highs during H2 2026 ranging from $4,872 to $5,800, and the lowest price forecast from respondents coming in at $3,450. “The analysts’ list of drivers of the gold price - geopolitical issues notably in the Middle East, US inflation, the Federal Reserve’s direction of travel, central bank buying - has not materially altered since the beginning of the year although the emphasis has changed with greater attention being paid to the Fed under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh,” they wrote. “Of the 16 respondents to the survey, five cited Iran as of primary concern, one focused on central banks’ continuing appetite for gold, and the remainder listed the Fed, and its response to US inflation numbers.” On Jan. 20, one month before the outbreak of the Iran conflict and the sharp rise in oil prices and parallel drop in precious metals, the LBMA published its annual Precious Metals Analyst Survey , which projected gold prices to average $4,741.97 an ounce in 2026. “Analysts expect the metal to average 38% above last year’s levels, fuelled by expectations of lower U.S. real rates, continued Fed easing and unwavering central-bank diversification away from the dollar,” the LBMA said in its report. “Geopolitical tension continues to cement gold ’s role as the world’s premier safe haven.” However, looking beyond the headline forecast, individual expectations showed a broad range of projections. The report said the forecasting range this year is $3,700, with the most bearish target at $3,450 an ounce and the most bullish target at $7,150 an ounce. The report added that the forecasting range for gold was up 103% from last year’s price movement and more than 200% higher than analyst expectations at the start of last year. Julia Du, commodity strategist at ICBC Standard Bank, was the most bullish on gold, calling for the yellow metal to hit $7,150 this year, with an average annual price target of $6,050. She expected prices to hold support at $4,100 an ounce. “I expect 2026 to be a year of heightened geopolitical risk and strong safe-haven demand, allowing gold to continue the volatile yet upward trend. Central banks are likely to keep adding to reserves, institutional investors will increase portfolio allocations, and retail demand – especially in Latin America – should remain robust. Combined with continued Fed rate cuts, these forces support a bullish bias,” Du said in her analysis. Robin Bhar, founder of Robin Bhar Metals Consulting, had the most bearish forecast, seeing gold prices averaging around $4,000 an ounce this year. He saw support at $3,500 an ounce, with prices peaking at $5,000 an ounce. “A perfect storm of factors is providing a strong tailwind to gold prices,” Bhar said in his forecast. “Economic and heightened political uncertainty, including concerns about Fed independence, will ensure gold remains a vital asset to provide a hedge. Geopolitical risks continue to bubble in various hot spots, adding to inflationary risks and continued safe-haven demand for gold. Central bank buying should continue to be an important support factor, as will continued portfolio diversification and speculative money on the long side.” Alexander Zumpfe, precious metals trader at Heraeus, provided the lowest support level at $3,450 an ounce, but saw prices peaking this year at $5,200 an ounce. Zumpfe added that while he expected periods of profit-taking and consolidation, the market remained well supported by robust investment demand.

August 13, 2026 The Chinese gold market showed a clear dichotomy in the first half of 2026: whilst demand for jewellery slumped amid record prices, physical investment products recorded strong growth. According to data from the China Gold Association (CGA), China’s total consumption rose slightly by 1.23 per cent to 511.41 tonnes (previous year: 505.21 tonnes). Investment demand offsets slump in jewellery High gold retail prices and changes to tax rules had a noticeable dampening effect on consumers. Nevertheless, there was a significant shift towards physical assets as a store of value: • Jewellery: −33.88 per cent to 132.13 tonnes • Bullion & coins: +28.42% to 339.34 tonnes • Industry & other: −2.90% to 39.94 tonnes Retail investors made targeted use of price corrections to make additional purchases via domestic banks. As a result, the investment sector more than fully offset the slump in the jewellery sector. Domestic production slumps – strategic focus on physical metal In parallel with the shift in demand, domestic supply contracted: China’s mining output from its own raw materials fell by 14.62 per cent to 152.91 tonnes. The main cause was regulatory environmental requirements and safety inspections, which led to temporary shutdowns. By contrast, the processing of imported ores rose by 4.62 per cent to 77.08 tonnes. Overall, domestic production thus fell by 9.01 per cent to 229.99 tonnes. For commodity investors, market expert Willem Middelkoop ( Commodity Discovery Fund ) places these developments within a broader macroeconomic context. He sees a familiar pattern in China’s approach: the state is systematically using price dips to make strategic purchases – much as it has done with oil and copper. Middelkoop does not interpret the recent consistent restriction by major Chinese banks on retail investors’ access to leveraged paper and futures trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) as a market crisis. Rather, he sees it as a state-directed measure to defuse speculative overheating and a targeted redirection of private capital away from paper-based derivatives towards physically backed holdings. By curbing leveraged trades, financial institutions are reducing systemic risks in the domestic market and forcing capital to be tied up directly in physical assets. China thus remains the key driver of the global market: whilst high prices are dampening cyclical jewellery consumption, they are accelerating the strategic, long-term accumulation of physical metal. Against the backdrop of declining domestic production, this development is simultaneously exacerbating China’s structural dependence on imports of raw gold and ores – a trend that is likely to increasingly constrain physical liquidity on Western trading markets. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/china-s-appetite-for-gold-is-growing-investors-are-increasingly-turning-to-gold-bars-and-coins

[SMM Express] OCBC has expanded its digital precious metals platform to allow retail investors to trade platinum and palladium bullion through its mobile app, starting from just 0.01 oz. Based on recent prices, the minimum investment is equivalent to around S$23 for platinum and S$18 for palladium, significantly lowering the entry barrier for retail participation. The move comes as investment interest in PGMs grows, with OCBC Group Research maintaining a bullish outlook and forecasting platinum above US$2,000/oz and palladium above US$1,500/oz by H1 2027. Unlike gold, PGM prices are strongly influenced by industrial demand from automotive, industrial and clean-energy applications as well as highly concentrated supply chains. The expansion could broaden the investor base for platinum and palladium, potentially supporting investment demand and market liquidity. With both metals already facing evolving supply-demand dynamics, increased retail access through digital platforms could become an additional source of demand alongside industrial consumption and institutional investment.

[SMM Express] Platinum futures climbed to around USD 1,780/oz, approaching an eight-week high as the precious metals complex strengthened. The move was supported by improving investment demand, with increased bullion holdings among Chinese institutional investors providing additional momentum as market volatility heightened. Meanwhile, AI and data-centre expansion could become a new source of PGM demand. Valterra Platinum estimates current AI-related PGM demand at around 200,000–400,000 oz annually and expects it could increase fivefold by 2030, supported by PGMs’ electrical and thermal properties. The longer-term outlook remains supported by a structural platinum market deficit and constrained mine supply, particularly from South Africa. However, sustained higher prices could encourage greater recycling and eventually place pressure on some areas of demand, leaving supply constraints and emerging technology demand as key factors to watch.

(Kitco News) - Gold's recent correction has likely run its course as the key macro headwinds that pressured the precious metal are beginning to fade, according to one Canadian research firm, which argues that real interest rates have likely peaked and the U.S. dollar will eventually turn from a headwind into a tailwind for bullion. After establishing a neutral position in Spring, Commodity analysts at BCA Research now see attractive value and are recommending investors start accumulating gold with a stop-loss at $3,900 an ounce. "The worst of real rates' headwind to gold is likely behind us," the firm said in its latest report, adding that while geopolitical risks tied to the Middle East could still create short-term volatility, its base case is for U.S. real rates to remain broadly stable over the coming months, helping gold establish a bottom. Speaking with Kitco News, Roukaya Ibrahim, chief commodities strategist at BCA Research, said investors should focus less on inflation and more on the outlook for real yields. "The recommendation to buy now basically embeds that real rates and the U.S. dollar are not going to rise further from here, and that headwind is already gone," she said, noting that gold has held the $4,000-an-ounce level despite recent macro headwinds. BCA's report argues that gold has returned to trading primarily as a macro asset after several years during which central bank buying overwhelmed traditional market drivers. The research firm believes real rates and the U.S. dollar have once again become the dominant forces determining bullion prices, while central bank purchases now provide a floor under the market rather than acting as the primary catalyst for further gains. Although markets have priced in additional Federal Reserve tightening, Ibrahim said she sees little risk that policymakers become more hawkish than current expectations. "Even if the Fed does hike, I don't see them hiking by more than what's already priced in," she said. "The odds of that are quite low" unless oil prices experience a significant and sustained surge that pushes inflation expectations materially higher. That view underpins BCA's bullish stance on gold . Ibrahim said gold does not require imminent rate cuts to rally—only confirmation that the peak in real yields is already behind the market. "The headwind from opportunity costs is going to ease, and it's going to turn into a tailwind," she said. "Not because the U.S. economy is going to crack, but because the tightening is already priced in." BCA also pushes back against the common perception that gold is primarily an inflation hedge. Instead, the firm argues that inflation only benefits bullion when it undermines confidence in the Federal Reserve and suppresses real yields. " Gold 's ability to act as an inflation hedge is overstated. Real rates, rather than inflation, determine gold's performance," the report said. As long as inflation expectations remain well anchored and the Fed maintains credibility, higher inflation initially weighs on gold by pushing real yields higher. Even if another oil-driven inflation shock emerges, Ibrahim expects any rise in real rates to prove temporary. "If we do get a price spike and inflation spike, then probably very quickly the attention is going to shift from it being an inflation story to being a growth story," she said. That transition would eventually cap the Fed's hawkishness and establish "a bottom for gold prices." The firm also sees longer-term support coming from structural forces, including reserve diversification away from the U.S. dollar and persistent central bank buying. While BCA believes the pace of official-sector purchases has likely peaked, it argues that ongoing buying continues to justify elevated gold prices and should prevent a return to 2022 price levels absent a shift by central banks to become net sellers. Over the longer term, BCA also expects the greenback to weaken as structural pressures build. "The greenback will shift from being a headwind to a tailwind to the yellow metal," the report concluded. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-08-06/now-time-buy-gold-bca-sees-bullish-opportunity-real-yields-peak

Published: 3 Aug 2026, 17:30 BST RBC’s high scenario keeps gold near $5,300 through 2027 as central-bank buying and stronger Asian investment demand cushion bullion on the downside. The Gold price in US Dollars slipped back towards $4,037 on Monday after ending last week near $4,072, but analysts at RBC Capital Markets still see a route towards $5,300 under its bullish scenario. The bank’s latest forecast puts gold at an average $5,132 in the third quarter, rising to $5,203 in the fourth quarter. Its 2027 high case averages $5,296, with quarterly forecasts between $5,249 and $5,321. RBC’s central scenario is more restrained, forecasting $4,558 this quarter, $4,370 in the fourth quarter and an average of $4,225 in 2027. The bullish case rests partly on demand holding up better than the headline data suggest. “In a YTD period that has seen a nearly $1,500/oz range for gold prices, Q2 ended with some notable dynamics,” RBC said. Central banks bought 289 tonnes during the second quarter after a slower opening quarter, outpacing both jewellery demand and bar-and-coin purchases. RBC said the official sector remained a “consistent positive undercurrent”, adding that Poland, Uzbekistan, China and Kazakhstan were the largest reported buyers this year. Gold traded between roughly $3,963 and $4,202 over the past month before returning towards $4,070. Investor demand in Asia is another important support. RBC highlighted “underlying shifts in Asia towards investor products, at the detriment of consumer products like jewellery”, arguing that the move still “nets out positive for total demand”. The bank added that Asian markets continue to dominate global bar-and-coin demand. Gold Outlook: Official Buying Cushions the Downside Exchange-traded fund demand weakened during the second quarter, but RBC noted that “Q3 has started off with inflows and YTD flows are positive”. That helps explain why the bank’s high scenario remains well above current prices despite gold’s difficult year. XAU/USD is down around 5.7% in 2026 and continues to trade below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The price of Gold remains lower for the year after falling sharply from January’s peak above $5,500. RBC’s low scenario still warns of substantial downside, with gold averaging $3,729 in the third quarter and $3,661 during 2027. Its high case, however, keeps the prospect of $5,300 gold firmly alive if central-bank purchases remain strong and investment demand continues shifting towards bullion. Source： https://www.exchangerates.org.uk/news/46716/2026-08-03-gold-price-forecast-predictions-2026-2027-rbc-sees-bullion-reaching-5-321.html

The central bank has added gold exposure through ETFs and is preparing to buy domestically produced bullion for the first time since 2013.

August 3, 2026 The precious metals markets remained highly volatile over the past several days while continuing to trade within what has ultimately been a relatively narrow range. Gold began the week with an upside gap and rallied to US$4,116, only to retreat to US$3,996 shortly before yesterday's Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Following the announcement, prices rebounded back to US$4,116 within hours before coming under renewed pressure late in the session and during early Asian trading, falling to US$4,042 and US$4,028, respectively. Overall, however, little has changed compared to last week's close of US$4,054. Silver traded within a range of US$56.62 to US$60.09 over the same period. Both metals remain locked in an uncertain sideways consolidation as they continue searching for a clear bottom and a decisive trend reversal. Two Time Horizons, One Market The precious metals market continues to be influenced by two very different time horizons. On one hand, a structural demand story unfolding over many years—driven largely by China—continues to provide strong fundamental support for gold. On the other hand, Federal Reserve policy, bond market developments, corrections in technology and semiconductor stocks, and the escalating conflict with Iran continue to generate short-term shocks that affect not only gold and silver but virtually every financial market sector. The Fed Holds Steady While the Market Tightens Financial Conditions This tension between long-term fundamentals and short-term volatility was highlighted once again by the Federal Reserve's latest policy decision. The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% for the fifth consecutive meeting. More noteworthy than the decision itself, however, was the reaction in the bond market. While two-year Treasury yields declined, the 30-year Treasury yield surged to approximately 5.21%, its highest level in nearly two decades. Fed Chair Warsh deliberately avoided providing forward guidance, instead pointing to the increases already taking place across the yield curve. The result is an unusual situation: although the Fed has left its policy rate unchanged, the bond market is effectively tightening monetary conditions on its own through rising long-term yields. Real Yields Versus Currency Debasement For gold and silver, this environment creates conflicting forces. Rising long-term real interest rates traditionally weigh on precious metals, while declining confidence in long-duration government bonds and growing concerns about fiscal deficits and currency debasement strengthen gold's appeal as an alternative store of value. Geopolitics Continues to Fuel Inflation Concerns The already complicated picture has been further intensified by the military escalation between the United States and Iran. Following Iranian missile attacks on U.S. positions, CENTCOM responded with strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets. Brent crude oil briefly climbed above US$94 per barrel amid concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments normally pass. Higher energy prices continue to increase inflationary pressures worldwide, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's cautious approach toward monetary policy. Selling Pressure from Financially Stressed Holders While geopolitical risks continue to support inflation concerns, they have also created selling pressure in the gold market. Financially strained Gulf states and countries such as Turkey have reportedly sold portions of their gold reserves to stabilize their currencies. These transactions temporarily increase supply but do not alter the longer-term demand trend. Instead, they represent a transfer of gold from weaker holders to long-term strategic buyers, particularly in Asia. China's Strategic Gold Accumulation Remains the Dominant Long-Term Story Zentralbank-Goldreserven China vs USA, vom 27. Juli 2026. © BMO, Gold.de The recent market turbulence has overshadowed what remains the dominant long-term narrative: China's systematic accumulation of gold. According to a recent BMO analysis, China has accumulated approximately 29,500 tonnes of above-ground gold since 1949, compared with an estimated 32,200 tonnes held by the United States. Remarkably, 93% of China's total gold accumulation has occurred during the past 25 years. The People's Bank of China officially reports gold reserves of around 2,300 tonnes, but discrepancies between reported central bank purchases and actual gold flows from the United Kingdom and Switzerland since 2022 suggest China's true holdings could be closer to 5,200 tonnes. Two Targets, One Timeline Based on these estimates, BMO outlines two potential milestones. China would require approximately 2,911 additional tonnes to match U.S. official central bank reserves, a target that could be reached in roughly five years at the current pace of purchases. To match total U.S. above-ground gold holdings, China would need only around 2,700 tonnes, a level that could potentially be reached in as little as two years. Shanghai and Hong Kong Are Emerging as a New Pricing Hub Globale Gold Handelsplätze, vom 27. Juli 2026. © BMO, Gold.de At the same time, China continues expanding the Shanghai Gold Exchange while strengthening Hong Kong as an offshore gold trading center through new clearing systems, the Delivery Connect program, and the reintroduction of U.S. dollar-denominated gold futures. Together, these initiatives are creating a second global pricing hub alongside the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) and New York's COMEX, while supporting the broader internationalization of the renminbi. Gold Remains Resilient Despite Strong Headwinds Despite the challenging macroeconomic backdrop, gold has shown remarkable resilience. The actively traded August futures contract gained 0.91% yesterday to close at US$4,065.50 , a respectable performance considering both the geopolitical escalation and the Federal Reserve meeting. BMO continues to forecast additional upside during the second half of 2026, targeting approximately US$4,750 by the fourth quarter once inflation concerns related to the conflict begin to ease. The Jackson Hole symposium at the end of August is widely viewed as the next major catalyst. Silver Caught Between Conflicting Forces Silver currently finds itself in a particularly difficult position. Historically, silver follows gold's direction, often with considerably higher beta. If gold successfully maintains support around US$4,000 and resumes its recovery, silver could potentially deliver even stronger gains. Unlike gold, however, silver lacks one critical pillar of the China investment thesis: there is no structural central bank demand providing long-term support. Instead, silver remains much more dependent on two other factors—the direction of real interest rates and industrial demand, particularly from the solar energy sector, which has remained relatively resilient despite inflationary pressures and higher energy costs. Silver Forms a Potential Wedge Pattern Silber in US-Dollar, Tageschart vom 17. Juli 2026. © Gold.de Since late June, silver has been attempting to establish a slow, narrow and rather confusing bottoming formation. Prices remain well below both the declining 50-day moving average at US$63.99 and the relatively flat 200-day moving average at US$70.71. At the same time, bears have repeatedly tested the broad support zone between US$55 and US$60 without achieving any meaningful downside follow-through, leaving a potentially bullish wedge pattern intact. Daily stochastic indicators have yet to generate meaningful upside momentum and continue to drift sideways, reflecting the fading media attention toward precious metals and the typically quieter summer trading environment. Nevertheless, prospects for a recovery remain favorable. Seasonally, silver has historically performed well between late June and early September, making a return toward the rapidly declining 50-day moving average appear entirely plausible later this summer. Given the growing number of bearish forecasts calling for gold to fall toward US$3,500, the market could just as easily remember that precious metals remain within a long-term secular bull market. Only six months ago, gold and silver had outperformed nearly every other asset class. A sudden shift in market sentiment could therefore transform the current setup into what many investors would view as an attractive "buy-the-dip" opportunity. Conclusion: Silver's Bottoming Process Remains Complicated The precious metals sector continues to move through a complex period in which long-term structural trends are colliding with short-term macroeconomic shocks. While gold remains fundamentally supported by China's ongoing accumulation strategy and growing concerns about currency debasement, rising long-term real yields, the Federal Reserve's cautious stance, weakness in technology stocks, and escalating geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on near-term price action. Silver, meanwhile, remains trapped between US$56 and US$60, searching for a decisive trend reversal. Seasonal patterns and the emerging wedge formation continue to support the case for a recovery later this summer. The central investment thesis for the second half of the year remains unchanged. Once inflation concerns related to the geopolitical conflict begin to ease and interest-rate uncertainty subsides, gold could resume its advance. Given silver's historically higher beta, it would likely outperform during such a move. Unlike gold, however, silver lacks the powerful structural support provided by central bank buying and therefore remains more dependent on industrial demand—particularly from the solar sector—and on the direction of real interest rates. Overall, the current consolidation can still be viewed as a potential buy-the-dip opportunity within an ongoing secular bull market, although investors continue to await more convincing technical confirmation, such as a sustained move back above silver's 50-day moving average. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/silver-a-complex-bottoming-process-continues

July 31, 2026 Whenever economic growth begins to weaken, many investors instinctively turn their attention to gold and silver as traditional safe-haven assets. Yet reality is more complex than the familiar "safe haven" narrative. While both precious metals tend to benefit from periods of economic uncertainty over the long term, they often follow very different patterns during recessions. Investors who understand these differences can position their portfolios more effectively. Paradoxically, the prices of both gold—and especially silver—often decline during the initial stages of a severe crisis. This is not because investors suddenly lose confidence in precious metals, but because individuals and institutions urgently need liquidity. In times of market stress, investors frequently sell their most liquid assets, including gold and silver, to meet margin calls or raise cash. History Shows That Liquidity Comes First During the Initial Phase of a Crisis The global financial crisis of 2008 provides a clear example. As the crisis intensified, the gold price fell from nearly US$1,000 to around US$700 per ounce before recovering by year-end and eventually reaching new all-time highs. Silver suffered a much sharper decline, dropping from approximately US$21 to below US$9 per ounce, a decline of more than 50%, while gold lost only about 12% during the same period. A similar pattern emerged during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Both precious metals initially declined sharply, but silver once again proved considerably more volatile, falling from around US$18 to US$12 per ounce within just a few weeks. Gold also weakened but experienced a much more moderate correction. History repeatedly demonstrates that the urgent need for liquidity can temporarily drive down the prices of both gold and silver. Yet it also shows that investors who panic and sell during these periods often miss the powerful recovery that typically follows. Once the Recovery Begins, Silver Historically Outperforms Gold This is where the second—and perhaps most important—historical pattern emerges. During the recovery phase following a recession, silver has historically outperformed gold by a considerable margin. Following the 2008 financial crisis, silver gained approximately 400% from its lows, while gold appreciated by roughly 170%. This outperformance generally begins once the urgent need for liquidity subsides and investors return to risk assets. The same phenomenon occurred after the initial COVID-19 market shock. During 2020, silver advanced by nearly 48%, while gold gained approximately 25%. One of the primary reasons for silver's stronger performance is its dual role. Gold functions primarily as a monetary asset and store of value. Silver, by contrast, combines monetary demand with substantial industrial demand. As economic conditions improve, both sources of demand recover simultaneously, providing additional support for silver prices. Why Gold Performs Well During Recessions Gold benefits from several supportive factors during economic downturns. Central banks typically lower interest rates in an effort to stimulate economic activity, reducing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold. At the same time, demand increases for assets without counterparty risk, particularly as confidence in equities, bonds, and sometimes even financial institutions begins to deteriorate. A review of six major U.S. recessions shows that gold prices increased during five of those downturns, declining only modestly during the 1990–1991 recession. There is, however, an important exception. If central banks aggressively raise interest rates to combat inflation—as they did in the early 1980s, when U.S. interest rates reached nearly 20%—gold can come under pressure even while the broader economy is contracting. The Great Depression: An Extreme Case A depression differs from a normal recession in both its severity and duration and is often accompanied by deflation. During the Great Depression of the 1930s, the official U.S. gold price remained fixed at US$20.67 per ounce under the gold standard. Gold's ability to preserve wealth therefore appeared not through price appreciation but through its purchasing power. As consumer prices fell by approximately 24%, gold maintained its nominal value, resulting in a significant increase in real purchasing power. In 1934, U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt raised the official gold price to US$35 per ounce, effectively increasing its value by approximately 69% overnight. This change resulted from government policy rather than market forces. At roughly the same time, the U.S. government issued Executive Order 6102, requiring private citizens to surrender much of their gold holdings. This historical episode illustrates that during severe depressions characterized by fixed exchange rates or a gold standard, government policy may exert greater influence over precious metals than normal market supply and demand. Similar developments occurred in Europe during the Napoleonic Wars, when Austria, following its defeat at the Battle of Austerlitz, devalued its currency by roughly 80% against gold. What This Means for Investors Several practical lessons emerge from history. First, short-term declines in gold—and particularly in silver—during the early stages of a crisis should not be interpreted as evidence that precious metals have failed. Rather, they reflect the market's temporary scramble for liquidity. Second, investors who maintain long-term holdings of physical gold and silver in the form of coins or bullion have historically benefited disproportionately from the subsequent recovery, with silver generally delivering the stronger rebound. Third, stagflationary environments—where weak economic growth coincides with persistent inflation, as experienced during the 1970s—have historically been particularly favorable for silver because both its monetary and industrial demand tend to strengthen simultaneously. For investors seeking to protect their wealth against the uncertainties of a recession—or even a full-scale depression—gold and silver should therefore be viewed not as short-term speculative trades, but as long-term components of a well-diversified investment portfolio. Source： https://goldinvest.de/en/gold-and-silver-during-a-recession-how-do-precious-metals-really-perform

Published: Jul 29, 2026 - 3:35 AM (Kitco News) - The gold market is struggling to hold support above $4,000 and could face further selling pressure, as one bank says a recovery remains unlikely as long as the war in Iran persists. On Tuesday, commodity analysts at Commerzbank led by Thu Lan Nguyen downgraded their gold price forecast for the second time in as many months. The German bank now expects gold prices to end the year around $4,500 an ounce, down from its revised June forecast of $4,800. At the same time, Commerzbank also lowered its year-end silver price target to $67 an ounce from its previous estimate of $80 an ounce. In the report, Nguyen said the price downgrade reflects the fact that persistent inflation pressures continue to force the Federal Reserve to maintain a tightening bias. However, she added that market expectations have become too aggressive, giving gold prices some room to recover from their current lows by the end of the year. She added that gold still has a path to $5,000 an ounce in 2027 if inflation pressures moderate. However, she said the biggest factor remains the uncertainty surrounding the war with Iran, saying that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to overshadow all the bullish factors that drove gold prices to record highs at the start of the year. “This is partly because the US, as an energy exporter, benefits from the current energy crisis – as evidenced by the sharp rise in its oil exports in recent months. The risk premiums in the foreign exchange market are sending a similar signal: After Liberation Day – i.e. the introduction of extensive US tariffs by the US government – hedging against a depreciation of the dollar relative to the euro became significantly more expensive (as reflected in positive EUR-USD risk reversals, see figure below). Since the outbreak of the Iran war, however, the dollar has again been regarded as safer than the euro. As long as this remains the case, gold is unlikely to benefit disproportionately from increased demand for safe havens,” she said. Despite the heightened geopolitical uncertainty, Commerzbank said there is little evidence that the conflict is having a lasting impact on the U.S. economy. Nguyen pointed out that although near-term inflation pressures have increased, long-term inflation expectations remain anchored. She said that in this environment, it is unlikely the Federal Reserve will adopt a sufficiently aggressive monetary policy stance to alter gold's longer-term bullish outlook. “There is potential for the gold price to recover from its current level, as we consider current market expectations of Fed rate hikes to be excessive and anticipate that Fed interest rates will remain unchanged until the end of the year. The Fed is likely to raise interest rates only if inflation trends force them to do so,” she said. “Our economists’ base-case scenario, in which core inflation does not rise significantly above the assumed monthly rates consistent with the target in the coming months, remains unchanged. In this scenario, the Fed would likely refrain from raising interest rates and might even cut its key interest rate from mid-2027 onwards, as the 2% target would then be reached in spring 2027.” Nguyen explained that although gold’s months-long correction has damaged market sentiment, there are still significant long-term drivers supporting higher prices. Nguyen said the bank's long-term bullish outlook remains intact because the structural drivers that fueled gold's rally earlier this year have not disappeared. She noted that growing skepticism toward the U.S. dollar as a traditional safe-haven asset, driven by unpredictable U.S. policy, continues to support demand for bullion. At the same time, the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves has prompted many central banks to reassess the security of their reserve assets, accelerating diversification into gold. Finally, mounting government debt across advanced economies has raised concerns about the long-term safety of sovereign bonds, further enhancing gold's appeal as an asset that is institutionally independent and carries no default risk. Source： https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2026-07-28/commerzbank-downgrades-gold-and-silver-prices-middle-east-conflict-takes