This week, nickel prices first fell and then rose, moving sideways amid a tug-of-war between macro fluctuations and supply-side policy. Early in the week, affected by a stronger US dollar and risk-off sentiment across global commodities, LME nickel once fell below the key $17,000 level. It then rebounded on easing tensions in the Middle East and policy expectations that Indonesia planned to impose a nickel export tax. As of Friday's close, the weekly price of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 3%, while the LME nickel 3M contract gained 2.4% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM price of #1 refined nickel was 138,030 yuan/mt this week, up 1,100 yuan/mt WoW. The average Jinchuan nickel premium was 5,900 yuan/mt this week, down 1,600 yuan/mt WoW. Premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -600-400 yuan/mt. Nickel plate premiums fell notably this week, and sluggish demand led to poor trading in the spot market. On the macro front, geopolitical risks continued to weigh on market risk appetite this week. According to US media reports, the US Department of Defense was formulating a "decisive lethal strike" military plan against Iran, which could include the deployment of ground forces and large-scale airstrikes. Although news of a ceasefire window had emerged earlier, risk-off sentiment did not truly fade. China's macro policy maintained a positive tone, and the pro-growth signals released at the Boao Forum boosted market confidence. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 1,700 mt this week, with destocking of 500 mt WoW. China's social inventory was about 90,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,300 mt WoW. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a tug-of-war between "strong cost support" and "weak actual demand" in the short term. The core trading range of the most-traded SHFE nickel contract is expected at 133,000-143,000 yuan/mt. Cost-floor support provided by Indonesian policy remains solid, but macro pressure and weak demand will limit upside room.

This week, the center of nickel prices moved lower WoW, with the most-traded SHFE nickel contract fluctuating within 132,000-140,000 yuan/mt. Early in the week, it fell below the 135,000 yuan mark amid weaker macro sentiment, but in the latter part of the week, rumors of maintenance at HPAL projects provided strong support around 133,000 yuan, and prices eventually returned to fluctuate around 137,000 yuan/mt. As of Friday's close, the most-traded SHFE nickel contract rose 0.14% WoW, while LME nickel gained 0.06% WoW. In the spot market, the average SMM #1 refined nickel price was 140,510 yuan/mt this week, up 850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 6,800 yuan/mt this week, down 100 yuan/mt WoW, while premiums for mainstream electrodeposited nickel brands in China ranged from -300 to 400 yuan/mt. Overall spot transactions were mediocre this week. On the macro front, geopolitical risks escalated markedly this week. In his first statement after taking office, Iran's new supreme leader said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that a new front would be opened if necessary. US ADP employment increased by 63,000 in February, above market expectations. As a result, the US dollar index strengthened, putting pressure on non-ferrous metal prices. Pan Gongsheng, governor of China's central bank, said the next step would be to build a scientific and prudent monetary policy framework, continue to effectively implement a moderately accommodative monetary policy, and strengthen counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments. Inventory side, inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Zone was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. China's social inventory was about 87,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 3,000 mt WoW. In Indonesia's Morowali region, some HPAL plants cut production due to tailings accidents. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East raised the risk of sulfur supply disruptions, and the market expected future MHP intermediate product supply to be tight, with strong willingness to hold prices firm, which would provide some cost support for nickel prices. However, the area above 140,000 yuan/mt still faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is expected to be 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt.

Capacity side, according to incomplete statistics, China’s alkaline electrolyzer market remained at 43.77 GW and the PEM electrolyzer market remained at 2.7 GW, with no new capacity added. No offline delivery information was available this week. Project-related developments: Jiangsu Guofu Hydrogen Energy Technology Equipment Co., Ltd.: Its indirectly wholly owned subsidiary, Xinjiang Guofu Mingzhi Hydrogen Energy Technology Co., Ltd., entered into a sales agreement with independent third party Hefei Zhongke Hecheng Green Energy Co., Ltd. for hydrogen production equipment for a green fuel base demonstration project featuring 20,000 mt of green electricity-based hydrogen production and flexible synthetic ammonia. The total contract value exceeded 55 million yuan. Under the agreement, Guofu Mingzhi will supply the client with six sets of 1,000 Nm³/hour alkaline electrolyzers and auxiliary equipment, such as rectifier transformers, rectifier cabinets, and separation and purification equipment. Xizang Zangqing Energy Equipment Co., Ltd.: A tender announcement was officially issued for the EPC project covering design and construction of Phase I of the zero-carbon intelligent equipment base for the new energy industry of green hydrogen and green methanol in the Zangqing Industrial Park. It is understood that the project mainly includes: an annual output of 100 sets of 1,500 Nm³-2,000 Nm³ alkaline electrolyzers; a 500 MW/year production line for plateau-type PEM electrolyzers; a standardized production line for a 40,000 t/d methanol synthesis unit and components; an annual output of 120 sets of 500 kW integrated hydrogen-oxygen heat and power co-generation units; and an annual output of 50 sets of 500 kg/day skid-mounted integrated methanol hydrogen refueling station equipment. Renewable Green Hydrogen Energy (Inner Mongolia) Co., Ltd.: An announcement was issued on the signing of the EPC general contract for the Phase I, Stage I green ammonia project of the integrated 800,000 mt/year wind and solar power-hydrogen-ammonia project with Donghua Technology. It is understood that the contract was signed by both parties on March 5, with a contract value of 2.026 billion yuan (provisional estimate), and the construction period (mechanical completion) will run until June 18, 2028. Donghua Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. will mainly undertake the design, procurement, construction, operation assurance services, and guidance for startup and commissioning of the EPC project. Tangshan Haitai New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : During the visit by the deputy secretary of the Abaqa Banner Committee in Inner Mongolia, the two sides further deepened cooperation on the 10 GW integrated wind and solar power-to-hydrogen project, working together to advance the project’s early commencement and commissioning. Maoming Binhai New Area Urban Investment Development Co., Ltd.: A public notice was issued on the shortlisted candidates for the construction of Phase I of the supporting road network project for the Green Chemical and Hydrogen Energy Industrial Park in Maoming Binhai New Area. The first shortlisted candidate was CCCC Fourth Harbor Engineering Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 98.210593 million yuan; the second shortlisted candidate was Hebei Xiangda Road & Bridge Engineering Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 98.23076 million yuan; and the third shortlisted candidate was Jiangxi Sitong Road & Bridge Construction Group Co., Ltd., with a bid price of 98.008929 million yuan. Fujian Tianchen Yaolong New Materials Co., Ltd.: A tender announcement was issued for the equipment procurement project for the hydrogen purification unit of the cyclohexanone technology upgrade and renovation project. It is understood that the project plans to procure one set of hydrogen purification unit equipment, with a maximum bid price of 7 million yuan. Inner Mongolia Juliyong Hydrogen New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.: Its new-type high-density, low-pressure solid-state hydrogen energy power R&D and industrialisation project was filed. The project will be constructed in Ordos City—Ordos Airport Logistics Park—Phase II, First Floor, Standardised Factory Buildings, Ordos Comprehensive Bonded Zone, Ejin Horo Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia. The project is expected to be built in two phases, with a total investment of approximately 120 million yuan. It requires 10 million yuan in policy support funding, with Phase I investment of 40 million yuan and Phase II investment of 80 million yuan. The construction period is three years, and after completion, the project is expected to generate annual profit of 30 million yuan. Policy Review 1. At the press conference held during the fourth session of the 14th National People's Congress, Zheng Shanjie, Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that China would focus on developing the “six emerging pillar industries” and the “six future industries.” Among them, “green hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion energy” were included in the category of future industries. 2. The People's Government of Shandong Province issued the Implementation Plan on Supporting Jining in Accelerating Green and Low-Carbon Transformation and Building New Advantages in High-Quality Development. The document proposed supporting Jining in fostering and developing emerging industries and future industries such as hydrogen energy production, storage, and transportation, and supporting the construction of future industry acceleration parks; advancing R&D breakthroughs in key technologies such as hydrogen fuel cell vessels, building a leading inland new energy vessel manufacturing base in China; and supporting technological innovation and the promotion and application in fields such as hydrogen energy. 3. With the approval of the National Energy Administration, the Standardisation Technical Committee for the Hydrogen Energy Sector of the Energy Industry was established in Beijing. The establishment of the committee aims to improve the industry standard system, lead technological innovation, and regulate market order. Enterprise Updates Qinghang Times (Shenzhen) Technology Co., Ltd. : Qinghang Times was established on January 5, 2026, with a registered capital of 1 million yuan and legal representative He Rongjie. It was founded by a Tsinghua University master's and doctoral team, received support from Tsinghua innovation and entrepreneurship platforms such as Tsinghua i-Space and Tsinghua Chuang+, and was selected for the Sci-Tech Innovation Light “Future Sci-Tech Entrepreneur Program.” Through its technical solution combining liquid hydrogen storage and a high-temperature PEM hydrogen-electric coupling system, it increased aircraft driving range by more than 10 times and payload by 2–3 times. Recently, it completed seed-round financing worth several million yuan, with the investor undisclosed. Shenzhen Hydrogen Energy Co., Ltd.: Completed A+ round financing, with Shenzhen Energy Investment as the investor. Anhui Shuishui New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. : Anhui Shuishui Technology completed an A-round financing of over 100 million yuan, led by NIO Capital. This round of funding will be primarily used to fulfill large orders, increase R&D reserves, construct new factories, and support daily operations, in order to drive the integration and upgrading of the industry chain. SPIC Green Energy Co., Ltd.: held talks with Beijing Energy International Holding Co., Ltd., with both sides focusing on areas such as the construction of green electricity transmission channels into Beijing and pipeline transportation of green hydrogen, and conducting in-depth exchanges on deepening cooperation. Beijing Hydrosys Technology Co., Ltd. : helped successfully complete hydrogen refueling at Yunnan’s first integrated “PV–green electricity–hydrogen” refueling station. China Classification Society ​​​​​​​: supported the successful completion of the 16,136 TEU methanol dual-fuel container ship project. China Classification Society​​​​​​​​​​​​​​: the “COSCO 9802,” a single methanol-powered chemical tanker for which it carried out drawing approval and construction inspection, was successfully delivered. ​​Patent Applications​​ 1. Shanghai Institute of Ceramics, Chinese Academy of Sciences​​ (China) disclosed patent CN2025110028, developing a ceramic-based anion exchange membrane with a laboratory-tested lifespan of 80,000 hours. ​​2. Johnson Matthey​​ (UK) filed patent WO2025109876, disclosing a Fe-Ni-Mo ternary non-precious metal catalyst formulation with activity close to platinum-based materials. Technology Footprint/Technical Specifications​​ 1. A team from Xi’an Jiaotong University and Peking University jointly developed a new-type osmium-based catalyst, significantly improving the efficiency and economics of hydrogen production from AEM water electrolysis and supporting the large-scale deployment of low-cost green hydrogen. 2. Johnson Matthey and Syensqo achieved efficient recycling and reuse of platinum group metals and ionomers in PEM fuel cells and electrolyzers, substantially reducing the carbon footprint. 3.​​Research teams from the School of Electrical Engineering of Xi’an Jiaotong University and the State Key Laboratory of Electrical Materials and Electrical Insulation successfully developed the Ru/Ti3C2Ox@NF bifunctional electrocatalyst for seawater electrolysis. 4. The group standard Technical Specification for Wind and Solar Power, PV+ESS, and Green Electricity Coupled Electrolysis Hydrogen Production (No. T/CIEP 0272—2025) was released and implemented by the China Industrial Environmental Protection Promotion Association. Zhongneng Dayou Energy Technology Co., Ltd. successfully developed a 100 kW-class PEM electrolyzer hydrogen production multi-field coupling test device. 5. GKN Powder Metallurgy announced that it had developed a next-generation high performance, high-porosity, high-purity porous transport layer (HP-PTL) for proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis.

Nickel prices came under pressure and pulled back this week. Early in the week, rumors of tighter approvals for RKAB on the Indonesian ore side spurred the futures market to rally briefly, but it later retreated as US Fed officials repeatedly delivered hawkish remarks, the US dollar index held above 106, and global risk assets came under broad pressure. With tensions in the Middle East rising, macro risk-off sentiment strengthened, and nickel prices on SHFE and LME corrected notably. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract closed at 137,140 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.6% on the week. The LME nickel 3M contract fluctuated between $17,000-17,900/mt this week, with a weekly decline of 2%. In the spot market, the weekly average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 140,600 yuan/mt, down 2,150 yuan/mt WoW. The weekly average Jinchuan nickel premium was 6,900 yuan/mt, down 1,100 yuan/mt versus the week before Chinese New Year. Premiums for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel ranged from -400-400 yuan/mt. After nickel prices fell this week, downstream restocking driven by rigid demand became more evident, and overall spot nickel plate shipments increased WoW. On the macro front, US ADP employment in February increased by 63,000, the largest rise since November 2025 and above the market expectation of 50,000, weakening expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts. Meanwhile, US January PCE and core PCE inflation data rose above expectations, and the US dollar index rebounded, creating short-term pressure on base metal prices. Geopolitical tensions continued to escalate this week, with Iran announcing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, posing a potential threat to the sulfur supply chain. Domestically, the Two Sessions emphasized medium and long-term benefits from national defense spending, improving expectations for alloy demand in sectors such as defense industry and shipbuilding, which supported nickel alloy consumption. Inventory: Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was about 85,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 8,000 mt WoW. Nickel prices are currently in a stalemate, with firmer cost support but unchanged near-term pressure. Tighter Indonesian RKAB quotas and tight nickel ore supply provided strong support for nickel prices, but levels above 140,000 yuan/mt faced strong resistance from high inventory and weak demand. The core expected trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is 130,000-140,000 yuan/mt.

This week marked the first trading week after the Lunar New Year holiday. At the beginning of the week, the import window briefly opened, attracting importers to take cargo. However, as inventories both domestically and overseas continued to build significantly, the import window gradually closed thereafter.

Nickel prices experienced a pattern of retreating after a rapid rise and fluctuating at highs this week. At the beginning of the week, driven by supply-side disruptions in Indonesia, nickel prices in both domestic and overseas markets strengthened simultaneously, with LME nickel once climbing back above $18,000/mt. However, by mid to late week, a stronger US dollar and continued inventory buildup on the LME exerted downward pressure on prices, leading to a slight correction in nickel prices. As of Friday, the most-traded SHFE nickel 2605 contract closed at 140,980 yuan/mt, posting a weekly gain of 3.46%; LME nickel also rose over 3% for the week. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel this week was 143,450 yuan/mt, up 2,550 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel this week was 8,300 yuan/mt, down 1,000 yuan/mt compared to the week before the Chinese New Year. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel ranged from -600 to 300 yuan/mt, also declining. Spot trading activity was relatively mediocre in the first week after the post-Chinese New Year resumption of work; market participants mostly adopted a wait-and-see attitude amid rising nickel prices, and with some end-users resuming operations at a slower pace, only a few enterprises made their first round of just-in-time procurement after the holiday. On the macro front, the US dollar index rose slightly by 0.2% this week, and the market remains divided over the policy path of the incoming US Fed Chair Warsh. Geopolitically, progress in US-Iran negotiations has been limited; while differences persist, the two sides are nearing consensus in some areas, with technical talks scheduled for March 2. Repeated fluctuations in the geopolitical situation continue to impact market risk appetite. Domestically, the central bank continued to precisely inject liquidity through open market operations this week to maintain stability in the quarter-end funding environment. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory stood at approximately 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was around 77,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 2,000 mt WoW. In the short term, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of fluctuations. On the downside, supply disruptions in Indonesia and expectations of a supply gap provide a floor, limiting significant downside room; on the upside, persistently high inventory levels and weak spot demand present clear resistance to further rises. The core fluctuation range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract next week is projected at 135,000-145,000 yuan/mt.

Hong Kong is accelerating its drive to become a global gold trading hub, in a move that supports China’s broader ambition to strengthen its influence over international bullion markets amid a shifting geopolitical landscape and record-high prices.

Nickel prices experienced wild swings WoW as market expectations materialized. From the beginning to mid-week, Indonesia's ESDM Minister revealed that the 2026 nickel ore RKAB production target was set at 260-270 million mt, aligning with previous market expectations. The continuous positive developments boosted market sentiment, driving nickel prices higher in both domestic and overseas markets. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract once again broke through the 140,000 yuan/mt mark, while LME nickel prices returned above $18,000/mt. However, a significant technical pullback occurred on Friday (the last trading day before the Chinese New Year holiday). In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 141,290 yuan/mt this week, up 4,300 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,300 yuan/mt WoW, down 650 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel remained stable within the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Most end-users and traders had already entered the holiday early, resulting in a relatively quiet spot market with participants mostly adopting a wait-and-see approach. On the macro front, the US Fed Chairman attended a hearing at the Senate Banking Committee this week, indicating an intention to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction while reiterating that the inflation rate remains above the long-term 2% target, suggesting that interest rates may remain unchanged for a longer period. This stance moderated the previous hawkish expectations following Wash's nomination, leading to a pullback in the US dollar index from highs. Geopolitically, on February 12, Trump stated that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, hoping to reach a consensus in "about a month." Domestic macro policies maintained an active tone. On Friday, the People's Bank of China conducted 100 billion yuan in 6-month (182-day) one-off reverse repo operations, aiming to maintain reasonably ample liquidity in the banking system. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was around 2,200 mt this week, flat WoW. Domestic social inventory was approximately 75,000 mt, with an inventory buildup of about 1,300 mt WoW. At the current stage, expectations regarding Indonesian policy alone cannot support a sustained rise in nickel prices. The support level around 130,000 yuan/mt for SHFE nickel shows strong resilience due to Indonesia's quota tightening policies, while the resistance above 145,000 yuan/mt remains significant due to high inventory and weak demand. After the Chinese New Year holiday, nickel prices are expected to enter a phase of wide swings at high levels, with the core trading range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract projected at 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt. Key factors to watch include whether the anticipated supply contraction materializes as expected after the holiday, as well as the pace of downstream work resumption and the strength of restocking demand.

This week, nickel prices experienced a sharp sell-off triggered by a sudden reversal in macro sentiment and high inventory pressure from the fundamentals. At the start of the week, the market came under pressure amid expectations of a "hawkish" nomination for the new Fed Chairman. Panic sentiment peaked on February 2, with LME and SHFE nickel prices plunging simultaneously. LME nickel prices fell below the $17,000 mark during the week, while the most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2603) hit an 11% limit-down intraday, erasing gains from January driven by Indonesian policy expectations, and ended the week down more than 9%. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 139,300 yuan/mt this week, down 10,350 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/mt, up 2,200 yuan/mt WoW. The premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands remained stable in the range of -400-400 yuan/mt. Due to the sharp decline in nickel prices this week, end-users' willingness to restock at low prices increased, and market transactions improved significantly compared to last week. On the macro front, Trump nominated former governor Kevin Warsh, seen as a "hawkish" representative, as the next Fed Chairman this week. The market's widely expected "dovish" candidate did not materialize, leading to a reversal in expectations for future monetary policy. Warsh advocates lowering interest rates through "balance sheet reduction + interest rate cuts," which was interpreted by the market as a tightening of global liquidity, causing the US dollar index to strengthen significantly and putting pressure on precious and non-ferrous metal prices. In the short term, market sentiment will take time to recover, and with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, capital remains cautious. However, the medium and long-term logic supporting nickel prices—expectations of tighter Indonesian nickel ore quota (RKAB) approvals—has not disappeared, and nickel prices are still expected to rebound. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract is forecast to trade in the range of 130,000-145,000 yuan/mt next week. Inventory side, Shanghai Bonded Zone inventory was about 2,200 mt this week, with a WoW buildup of 500 mt. Domestic social inventory was about 73,000 mt, with a WoW buildup of about 2,600 mt.

Nickel prices were in the doldrums this week, dominated by loose supply and demand. Although the US Fed cut interest rates as expected, nickel prices failed to get an effective boost and showed a clear downtrend. The most-traded SHFE nickel contract was relatively firm at the beginning of the week, but prices accelerated their pullback later due to weak domestic demand, closing at 115,590 yuan/mt on Friday, down 1.84% WoW. LME nickel prices also weakened, falling consecutively and down 2.27% WoW. In the spot market, the average price of SMM #1 refined nickel was 119,350 yuan/mt this week, down 1,850 yuan/mt WoW. The average premium for Jinchuan nickel was 5,100 yuan/mt, up 300 yuan/mt WoW. Premiums and discounts for mainstream domestic electrodeposited nickel brands ranged from -100 to 400 yuan/mt. Spot market transactions were sluggish this week, with downstream consumers mainly stockpiling for rigid demand and adopting a wait-and-see stance.